SaveOurSonics Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: I might recommend leaving out that SEA/DET O41 line tbh. With Seattle having both of their OTs out again, it could be another long day for that offense. I also expect Seattle's defense to buckle down a bit relative to last week. In fact it might be a good call to simply bet the opposite. Get U54.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 34 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: I might recommend leaving out that SEA/DET O41 line tbh. With Seattle having both of their OTs out again, it could be another long day for that offense. I also expect Seattle's defense to buckle down a bit relative to last week. Seattle's OTs being out is one reason why I like DET -4 and decided to go with DET over their team total rather than expect some leap from Seattle's offense. That seattle run D is a problem. It has been a problem. I don't think they can get that sorted out this week against the lions considering how talented their RBs are and how good their OL is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Tank4Drake said: My bet of the week. Pretty confident in four of these, not so much Godwin. Godwin against that atrocious bears secondary is a gimmie for only 9.55 fpts. Chicago's awareness in coverage against the Packers was awful and Godwin is more talented than what the Packers threw out there last Sunday as of now. I'd be more wary of Chase and if Burrow is back to his old self with the ravens defense generating pressure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, N4L said: Seattle's OTs being out is one reason why I like DET -4 and decided to go with DET over their team total rather than expect some leap from Seattle's offense. That seattle run D is a problem. It has been a problem. I don't think they can get that sorted out this week against the lions considering how talented their RBs are and how good their OL is. We barely gave up 2 YPC last week in a game we were otherwise pulverized in. The additions of DreMont Jones, Jarran Reed, & Bobby Wagner are a serious lift for this run defense. I'm not saying we'll shutdown the Lions in similar fashion, but that is not the weakness of the team in 2023. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 (edited) 12 hours ago, Broncofan said: So if Amari Cooper goes out, then Cedric Tillman likely comes in and takes work (David Bell too). In RZ this likely creates 12 formation looks. Cedric Tillman +1400 / +2000 2+ & Harrison Bryant is +1200 / +20000 2+ & are fair 0.4U/0.1U plays for MNF if Cooper’s out. I'm going to add David Bell +2000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U/0.1U given he might be the other guy who gets work. If Cooper plays at least 1 of the 2 WR's will be inactive, and if he doesn't, then I have the 12 formation receiving TE and the 3rd/4th WR likely to be in the RZ (Goodwin is not a RZ guy). Both Elijah Moore & People-Jones are like +200, so literally no value there. BOL! For the late SUN slate, I see Brandon Johnson is +950 on FD / +15000 2+ play on DK 0.4U/0.1U - with Jeudy being active, Johnson takes less snaps, but likely is part of the RZ package over Mims, esp when they are in 11 personnel. I'll wait until 3 PM then take the 0.4U play on FD, as I think the line goes up, while the 0.1U DK 2+ TD play is locked in. Edited September 17, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 (edited) On 9/15/2023 at 1:12 AM, SaveOurSonics said: TD props I like for this week. Would love to hear some more thoughts before I place any of these! Roschon Johnson +500 (I think he overtakes Herbert for RB1 this game) Gus Edwards +190 (Hill took these carries last week, but I still expect Gus to be that guy [and so does Vegas]) Odell Beckham +400 (led Ravens WRs in snaps last week; crazy number) Christian Kirk +200 (just feels like a bounce back spot for him, KC is strongest on the perimeter) Jake Ferguson +350 (huge target share last week, NYJ is pass funnel defense to TEs) In addition to these, I added a couple today... Chargers -2.5 (1u) **I just think they're the much better team, even without Ekeler. Henry may get his for TEN, but I think LAC's pace of play will be too overwhelming for the Titans over 4 quarters. Bears ML (1u) +130 **I love this line. I think it's a big bounce back spot for the Bears after an embarrassing Week 1 loss. I don't think Tampa is as good as what we saw in Week 1. Wrong team is favored. Darnell Mooney O29.9 Yards (1.5u) **I always lose when I say this, but this feels like free money. I don't expect Claypool to play, and if he does I'd bet it's in a limited capacity. As the WR2, Mooney will be running the same deep crossing routes that Claypool did a week ago, and he could easily hit this line on a single catch. Baker Mayfield O0.5 INTs (0.75u) +110 **If I can get a Baker pick at +odds, I'm taking it. Simple as that. Prop Parlay: Bijan O55.5 + Goff U34.5 Attempts (0.25u) +250 (yes, I learned nothing from saying I wouldn't do these) **I don't see Bijan being held down for long, so I'll keep betting his over until he starts crushing. With Goff, I expect both teams to try to slow the game down with the run, & I think the Lions are able to pull away here, limiting Goff's attempts. Even if Seattle pulls off the mini-upset, I think it will be at the hands of their defense, not their offense. Prop Parlay: Ken Walker O60.5 ry + CRidley O5.5 c + THiggins O60.5 ry + Mooney O29.5 (0.25u) +1000 **I think Seattle further establishes the run in this game with their tackles out, & Walker is the type of back who could hit this line in a single carry. Ridley is the clear #1 in JAX. Tee is due for a big game after being among the league leaders in Air Yards Week 1. And I already said I think Mooney is free money, so threw him in there. Teaser (6.5pts / 4 legs): Bears +9 / Bills -1 / 49ers -1 / Cowboys -2 (1.5u) +200 **Have Bears ML already, think they can cover that easy. Bills, 9ers, & Cowboys all feel like slam dunk winners. Teaser (7pts / 14 legs): Sea/Det U54 + NyG/Ari U46.5 + NyJ/Dal U45.5 + Was/Den U45.5 + Mia/Ne O39.5 + No/Car U46.5 + Steelers+9.5 + Cowboys-1.5 + 49ers ML + Bills ML + Jaguars+10.5 + Chargers+4.5 + Colts+8.5 + Bears+9.5 (0.25u) +5000 **Wanted to do one longshot parlay. Really like this one. I also added a couple of futures that I really liked the price on... Lions to Win Division (1.25u) -125 **Surprised to get this line after they beat the Chiefs. It pretty much didn't move. Jaguars to Win Division (2u) -190 **I don't see a scenario beyond a TLaw injury where the Jags don't take this division. At those odds, I love it. Edited September 17, 2023 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Donta Foreman inactive today vs Tampa Bay. Can’t find the receiving yard option for Roschon Johnson, but when I do it will be hammered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 (edited) Jamal Agnew is +1300 to score on DK but +700 or worse everywhere else. Last year TLaw looked to him in the RZ quite a few times for a guy so far down the depth chart, and vs KC they will pull out all the stops in a high scoring game. .2U on the J man Same vein, gimme the 50% profit boost on Kirk 100+ rec yards to make it +1500. Edited September 17, 2023 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: Donta Foreman inactive today vs Tampa Bay. Can’t find the receiving yard option for Roschon Johnson, but when I do it will be hammered. o5.5 yards on Bet365. Free money. Milestone 25 is +625 also. Edited September 17, 2023 by SmittyBacall 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojan Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 My two DK daily entries for today: QB: Trevor Lawrence RB: Saquon Barkley RB: Joshua Kelley WR: Calvin Ridley WR: Brandon Aiyuk WR: Tutu Atwell TE: Luke Musgrave FLEX: Mike Evans DST: Buccaneers QB: Josh Allen RB: AJ Dillion RB: Joshua Kelley WR: Calvin Ridley WR: Stefon Diggs WR: Tutu Atwell TE: Dalton Kincaid FLEX: Zach Moss DST: Bengals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wentz you dog you Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: o5.5 yards on Bet365. Free money. Milestone 25 is +625 also. What makes you think this? Is he a good receiving back? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Wentz you dog you said: What makes you think this? Is he a good receiving back? Yes. He excels at receiving and pass protection, and running to be honest - he’s a good player. With Foreman inactive he’ll probably be on the field for 50% of the snaps and the majority of “passing down” situations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 minute ago, SmittyBacall said: Yes. He excels at receiving and pass protection, and running to be honest - he’s a good player. With Foreman inactive he’ll probably be on the field for 50% of the snaps and the majority of “passing down” situations. He had 6 catches for 30+ yards last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 (edited) So far I went with CHI ML, C Kirk TD +225, TD parlay of Davante, Waller, and Gus Edwards boosted to +3335 Parlay of KC -2.5, BUF -2.5 +125 SGP of Seattle +7.5, o 39.5, and Ken Walker TD boosted to +380 Edited September 17, 2023 by 11sanchez11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Just now, 11sanchez11 said: TD parlay of Davante, Waller, and Gus Edwards boosted to +3335 And Davante and Edwards hit on the 1st drive... Just need Waller TD now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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