Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, adamq said:

Justin Watson is +900 to score on Bet365, +440 is the best i can find anywhere else.  KC will run up the score on that pathetic Chicago defense and Watson will get his shots

Love the reasoning just keep in mind Watson is battling an ankle injury.  He’s back off the injury designation but typically there’s a drop in production for 1-2 weeks after returning.   It’s why I’m taking the Ross stab even though Watson gets more PT ATM (but Ross gets iso at least 1-2x inside the 10 they just have gone elsewhere so far).   But at those numbers and his usage it’s a decent play.   With Richie James out and Toney very iffy this is a good game to target KC WR.  

Edited September 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I must say, you’ve really drawn my attention on the long odds ATTD plays. I’ve never been a big ATTD bettor (felt too random), but your methodology has made me iterate my own. Two good ATTD hits last week; hopefully can add to that this week. 

Anyways. Here’s 3 ATTD I’m eyeing rn. Any feedback is welcome! 

Nico Collins (+275) - I already mentioned I expect this to be a high scoring game, & Nico has been Strouds primary read in the RZ. Jacksonville, like most teams, doesn’t have the size to matchup with him 1on1. 

Marvin Mims (+600) - Mims has been a dependable deep threat for Denver. Their defense has been miserable & I don’t expect it to look much better against MIA. With Denver playing catch-up, expect some patented Russ moon balls in the 2H. Mims is the beneficiary of those. 

Mo Alie-Cox (+900) - I think Minshew taking over for ARich is a great opportunity to buy Colts pass catchers who may not get looks when Richardson is in. Welcome Mo. A massive target, I imagine he’ll be a favorite of Minshew, who loved Goedert in Philly. 

FWIW, I agree that TD's are more random than we believe - it's why taking low-payout TD props are seldom profitable over the long run.    Embracing the fact that TD's are random, it's about trying to project TD probability, and then seeing if it out of line with the projected odds.     Here's why I go for long-shot TD's at +400 or better in most cases - the more-random nature of TD's means IMO you need to be at least 50% over estimated odds with the book line to be profitable.   It's really hard to be 50% over projected odds when the book lines hit +100's, +200's.    The fact books are offering -300 for CMC TD's is pulling ppl into the belief they are reliable - when in fact we know they aren't nearly so reliable.   The reason I've been successful in the past 2-3 years with this is that I'm finding odds that overpay the probability.    If I can find a player who gets reliable snaps in the RZ (let alone targets), and there's a PT or talent issue with the guy ahead of them (Turner more talented IMO, but now it's moot, Thomas is gone), those are where you find value.   It's why Donald Parham at +800 last year was an auto-play - plays very few snaps, but so many of them are in RZ.   Books finally caught up this year..at least we hit one +800 b4 they did.   

So a few notes on Collins, Mims & MAC:

1.  Nico Collins is def the target hog, and JAX doesn't have anyone who can match up size-wise.  I can't ever put a 50% prob on a WR to get a TD, outside of Justin Jefferson vs. the right teams.    But Collins would be somewhere around 40-45% this week.   So you're getting some value on the line.  It's definitely justifiable - just that your hit rate if you keep playing +250 to +300 plays has to get to 30-35% percent to be profitable.   I try and be really disciplined and not pass +400, but in that tier, he's an excellent play (given he was my 1st player yardage prop, obv I'm on-board with a big day).   Fully on board.

2. The big problem with Mims is his snap share is absolutely microscopic right now.   He literally was on the field for 4 snaps.   And his TD was on a bomb.   Payton doesn't trust him yet in the RZ.   That makes it hard to justify +600.   Scoring outside the RZ is a 10-15% probability.   Now, when Jeudy was out, I'd have said take the shot, because Mims has to be in the top 3 - only to watch Mims get very little work.   Now, Mims is a terrific talent - but his big area to work on was developing his route tree (OU was pretty simple in what they used him for).   I absolutely believe he'll get there, but that's what's holding him back.   It's what made Brandon Johnson such a fantastic play, as he was getting over half the RZ snaps (and I suspect he still will - obv books have caught on, he's in the 400's, not playable).    Mims is one guy I'd wait on until you see he's getting more RZ snaps.

3.  MAC is exactly the type of play to look for - 2nd TE who still gets a lot of RZ snaps with 12 formation, etc.     Granson has taken over the lion's share, but MAC is on the field a lot.   So why did I pass?  Well, the weather forecast is still rough (I'm likely going to stay with Flowers if the wind forecast keeps improving), so that's one reason.  The other is that BAL's TE D is near-elite since they added Roquan Smith.  Now, they are vulnerable with their safeties hurt, but MAC generally hasn't been running nearly as many seam routes in the Steichen O...yet.   FWIW, I would likely take MAC vs. lesser D's and decent weather (home games!), esp with a more classic drop back QB at +800 or better (calculating his odds at +500), just the weather/BAL D conspired against that.      Now, I'd still take it if the odds get even a little wider - and this is where the fact your odds are on FD helps you - I'd wait on IND-BAL longshot TD props (+800) until the very last hour, looking to see if MAC odds actually increase.  If heavy rain is still there, or the winds are horrible, you can wait - but even if it's just OK, any bad weather will almost certainly inflate longshot TD odds.  This normally happens on FD (but NOT any other book).      The only way longshot odds worsen is if guys ahead of them are confirmed out - I don't think there's any situation like that with IND, so waiting is the play.  Granson may not move (or move down), but MAC is almost certainly going to increase.  If it gets to +1200 (which believe it or not, I've seen many times with +800/+900; +1000 guys sometimes get to +1500, it's insane), then I'm probably hopping on-board too.  Again, I mentioned this to @BobbyPhil1781 - this ONLY applies to super-longshots with FD, and only if it's not at risk to dropping once a player ahead on the depth chart is confirmed out (Cole Turner prime example).

 

Someone online mentioned Noah Fant - with Shaq Thompson out, I do like the reasoning, and I love it knowing Will Dissly is doubtful, so that becomes an even timeshare at TE - but I'd rather take the longer odds timeshare guy in Colby Parkinson at +900 / +13000 2+ at 0.8U/0.2U DK, vs Fant at +400 range.   Parkinson def splits the work, and if he wasn't tackled at the 2 (one guy to beat) last week, his odds would be much further down.    Added to card, and I'll mark MAC as a potential last-minute addition.   BOL!

 

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, N4L said:

Last week it felt like I had too many bets and I took the shot and it worked out. This week I am hoping to keep it rolling and I am not forcing it, just letting it come to me based on what I see on film + usage. But holy hell this is just a high volume of plays. I am hoping to have less bets as the season goes on, but in the meantime we will continue to fire off.  

PROPS

EARLY

Nico Collins over 54 rec yards - Broncofan touched on this already but we will continue to ride this one 

Tank Dell over 39.5 yards - explosive player who got a lot more snaps in week 2. Its a short number. Stroud slangs that rock. They cant run the ball for sh!t. We will continue to take the HOU pass catchers. 

Justin Herbert over 285 yards - as broncofan said, the vikings are suseptible to the deep pass. Herbert has one of the best deep arms in history. The game should be a shootout. He will continue to pass. He should have 300+ yards in this game.

Bijan over 69 rushing yards - We are witnessing the ascension of an all time great. 70 yards is still a pretty low number. For as much grief as Smith gets for how he runs his offense, the guy can scheme up the run game and bijan is a legitimate cheat code. Feels like the falcons can basically run on anyone other than the titans. I played the alt lines upto 99 yards. Love the rushing + rec over 95 yards as well. 

Keenan Allen over 72 rec yards - Herbert's #1 WR in a shootout game. This line is too low.

Mike Williams 61.5 rec yards - If Herbert throws for 300+, then there is a lot of yards for Mike as well. Injury concerns are legitimate but the volume should be here for him. 

Lamar Jackson over 229 passing yards - The colts passing D has gotten absolutely torched the last two weeks. The weather is certainly worth monitoring, if there are winds > 10mph, I will probably back off from this one a bit, but the number does not seem to accurately reflect the change in the offensive philosophy in Baltimore. Week 1 the offense started off cold but found their rhythm in the second half, but by then the game was out of hand against the Texans. Week 2 they rushed for 178 yards against a tough defense in CIN. I do not think they rush for as many yards considering the colts are giving up 2.6 ypc. The ravens should see that the best way to attack the colts defense is through the air. 

Zay flowers over 48.5 rec yards, over 4.5 receptions - Seems to be the lead dog there. If there are winds, he is the kind of guy to get spammed with short throws with the idea he can make plays on the outside with the ball in his hands. He could have 10 targets. 

Rashaad Bateman over rec yards 36.5 - His snap % went up from 30 to 60. Odell is out. The ravens want him to get going. He is a big play WR with great speed. I think Lamar looks for him in this game. Lamar speaks highly of him. 

Interesting note about the ravens pass catchers rec lines and lamar's passing prop. His passing prop is 228. Andrews is 54, bateman 37, zay 49. The math does not add up there. Where does vegas think the extra 100 yards are going to come from? lol 

Mostert over 61.5 yards - Denver defense is bad, Miami does not have any other RBs it seems. He is explosive. 

Joshua Kelley over 61 rush yards - Vikings got torched on the ground last week. Kelley got a work horse role last week but it was a terrible matchup. He will see light boxes all game. It should be a big game for him. 

Rhamondre over 3.5 receptions - As broncofan said, the way to attack the jets is by targeting their RBs (and also in the slot, but the pats dont have a slot WR worthy of this angle, but we will exploit this in the future). With the weather, I dont want to take a yardage prop for him, but I think Mac will loo. 

LATE 

Tony pollard over 70 rush yards - He is an explosive player. I will continue to take the over for the starting RB of double digit favorites. 

KW3 over 64 rushing yards - he is very clearly the work horse there. Seattle likes to run the ball. He breaks big runs. 

NON PROPS

Miami team total over 27.5 - Denver's defense is bad right now. I really do not love that Waddle is probably out, but I trust McDaniel to get Tyreek loose regardless. 

Give me the rams +3 and the under 43.5 - I think burrow is out. Just reading the body language of his interview, of Jamar's interview, and also seeing the owner pull him aside at practice. I really think they have decided to pull the plug on him for the time being. Even if he does play, I still like the Rams at that number. If he does not play, then I expect the rams to be 4 point favorites. The Rams are a competent team who were pretty physical the past two weeks. Stafford is cooking. McVay has called some great games. The bengals defense will ultimately keep them 

TEASER LEGS

I stick to 2 leg teasers and I play a round robin. 

Chargers +8 - In all of the teasers with the chargers, I bought an extra point to get a 7 point teaser instead of a 6 point teaser, just to get the win on a 7 point game. I think the chargers are just more talented than the vikings overall and I like them to keep it within a 1 score game. 

Over 48 in the LAC/MIN game - Should be a shootout. Two high flying offenses with bad defenses. 

Ravens -1 - Their defense is really what sets them apart here. It is lightyears ahead of the colts offense with minshew. They are a playoff team and the colts are far from it. 

Rams +10 - bought it up to 10 for some extra juice. They will keep it close even if burrow plays. 

Titans +10 - I will take double digit points with vrabel against a team that I do not think is very good. The titans run D is going to give the cle offense a lot of problems. Watson might not be good at football anymore so that negates one of the titans weaknesses. The cleveland defense is banged up and its a short week against another physical team. 

 

 

Honestly if I wasn't up to 8-9 player props with alt lines, I'd have tailed you on Kelley and Lamar pass yards - and I absolutely endorse your book-analysis reasoning with hammering BAL rec props.   Either Lamar's prop is way too high, or the WR's & Andrews are too low.   Still, with 12+ games, I can't take every BAL prop lol, so I like to go to the alpha WR (or Andrews there, and I think Flowers is way too low).  That's the exact example of using book leverage, where their own numbers contradict themselves, to find an edge.

The main reason I worry about BAL is simply the weather.   If the wind forecast improves, that's huge, because Lamar doesn't have great arm talent to deal with harsh wind conditions.    I agree Flowers is somewhat insulated, but if I'm going alt lines, I need the ceiling.   I'm still waiting on the SUN AM weather report, but unlike yesterday, where it looked 30/70 wind conditions would be OK (along with steady light rain), now it looks like steady light rain - which is far more manageable (downpours obv not good).   Obv with good weather, Flowers was one of my top 3 players, so it just comes down to how harsh the wind/rain will be (and man, it sure affects my Cole Turner 2x play for TD lol).  BOL!

Side comment - the player props that keep hitting alt lines are ones where the player has a top 2 target share as a pass catcher, or the 70+ percent RB share, but isn't recognized enough to be put into the 70+ yard range.    There's no coincidence most of my alt lines are with players where it's set at 40, 50, 60.    That's because they have a 100+ yard ceiling - but also an alt line that goes BOOM if they do hit that.  And if it's 40/50's, the 75+ alt line is pretty sweet too.  

Guys who qualify - Mostert, Nico Collins, Zay Flowers (before the weather/rain), Jahan Dotson (with this weather, passed altogether, but I'm going back there next 2 weeks, hoping he doesn't go nuts vs BUF this week).  For RB's, it's KW3, and for 1 week, LAC's Kelly.    So obv I love your card.

The only reason I don't include Keenan Allen, Bijan or Pollard - is they have to hit 100+ to get the same kind of payouts as the 50-60 yd props to hit 75 (or 80 as you get closer to 60).    I'm all about players who my projections are not just above the set line, but so far above, it makes alt line plays a must.   It's just so hard to do as the number gets higher (I will say if there were 3 guys who are highly likely to go over 100+ - it's Allen, Pollard & Bijan).    Plus in Allen's case, I'm taking M-Will at 60+, esp because I think both go over their number, but the payouts for Mike are just that much higher (11 yards doesn't sound like much as a baseline for main prop, but it has a massive influence on the 75 / 100 alt lines).

 

 

[Broncofan]

11 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I will courageously push back on this one. 

First game back from injury, I don’t see anything resembling a full load for Kendre. Taysom Hill was very effective last week & I expect they go back to the well there. 

That said, 39.5 yards isn’t a lot. Don’t hate it, just not one I’d personally tail. 

 

11 hours ago, N4L said:

I am with you to a degree. It feels like Kendre is only playing because williams got hurt, and not because he is healthy enough to play. Realistically, as a person with Kendre on his dynasty team, I wish he would just go on IR and get healthy. He played hurt last year and was not healthy all summer, and played injured in the preseason. 

If we had any clarity on who was running the ball for NO, I would be all over them. GB is a bad rush D until they prove me otherwise. I have said they are soft on defense because it is true. We will continue to attack this under the right set of circumstances. 

So, from that perspective, 40 yards is a very short number and @Broncofan is basically just reading the line and the matchup. It is sound reasoning. I just wonder if Tony Jones ends up being the lead guy there simply because the coaching staff trusts him more because he is the devil they know. His line isnt even posted yet lol 

 

11 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I must say, you’ve really drawn my attention on the long odds ATTD plays. I’ve never been a big ATTD bettor (felt too random), but your methodology has made me iterate my own. Two good ATTD hits last week; hopefully can add to that this week. 

Anyways. Here’s 3 ATTD I’m eyeing rn. Any feedback is welcome! 

Nico Collins (+275) - I already mentioned I expect this to be a high scoring game, & Nico has been Strouds primary read in the RZ. Jacksonville, like most teams, doesn’t have the size to matchup with him 1on1. 

Marvin Mims (+600) - Mims has been a dependable deep threat for Denver. Their defense has been miserable & I don’t expect it to look much better against MIA. With Denver playing catch-up, expect some patented Russ moon balls in the 2H. Mims is the beneficiary of those. 

Mo Alie-Cox (+900) - I think Minshew taking over for ARich is a great opportunity to buy Colts pass catchers who may not get looks when Richardson is in. Welcome Mo. A massive target, I imagine he’ll be a favorite of Minshew, who loved Goedert in Philly. 

 

11 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

IMO, it’s a suspiciously low line. If Vegas had any faith in Kendre being the lead back, that number would be closer to 50. 

I may be inclined to bet the under just to put my money where my mouth is. 

 

Let me expand on why I believe Miller is a strong play, beyond just the low line (but yes, it's partly that - because it makes 70 / 75 yards an amazing +600 value), and recognize the risk as well.  Here goes:

 

FOR:

-Tony Jones does NOT appear to  have the trust of the coaches.  As the only healthy backup RB in week 1, he took all of 7 snaps, and 3 carries, to Jamal Williams 49 (Taysom Hill for the 9 other missing snaps).    In week 2, Jamal Williams was in for 18 of the first 21 plays until he got hurt, Taysom for 2 and Tony Jones for 1 snap.   1 out of 21.      Being the only guy left, he played 41 of the last 51 snaps, but there was literally no one.  Now I say "appear" for an import reason later on...

-I've played Tony Jones TD props before, and sadly, I've come to the conclusion that Tony Jones just sucks at football.  Sean Payton loves all ex-Saints even when they suck (Adam Trautman living testament), and he couldn't keep Tony Jones.   Remember that Jones wasn't even on the roster, and was signed at roster cuts only when Kendre Miller got hurt, and was unlikely to be active the first 2 weeks.  Yes, the 2 TD's are shiny, but against a weak CAR run D (weaker especially once Shaq Thompson left), he managed 12-34...and it was rough viewing.  The guy has no juice left.   As much as I despair over NO over-using Taysom Hill (a total 0 in the pass game, and not a real QB), using him in the run game last week over Tony Jones was the 100% right call.  FWIW, I believe Tony Jones line will come in at 25-30 yds, and I'd take the under there if I were an under bettor.

-Miller didn't just return off the injury list, he was 50-50 to play MNF last week.   So he got a full week without any limitations, all full practices (FP's).  Even before the Week 2 game, the reporters said they were keeping him for Week 3, to be safe.    So it's not like he is being rushed back now.    Now, to be clear, Miller would have been behind Jamal Williams, and likely only taken 20-25% of snaps at most.   If NO had a reliable RB, I 100 percent agree they'd ease Miller in.  But they don't this week.     They will with Kamara back next week - which lets them be more heavy on Kendre's workload for 1 game only. 

-As mentioned, GB run D isn't just a soft run D, they're a smash spot run D - because they are so much better in pass coverage, it's a run funnel D.    As much as NO's run game has struggled (some on OL, some on predictable playcalling, a lot on the RB's involved - both Jamal Williams <starting to hit wall> & Tony Jones <never was good>.    Miller only needs 10+ carries to get to 40+ yards IMO.     Give him 15-18, and that 75 looks awful juicy.    So the real Q is how many run plays will NO call?   If they call 30 run plays, I only need Kendre to get 50-60 percent.  That's my projection, that Kendre basically shares the work.  

-Finally, Miller isn't a 75-yard, score it all at once player - but his excellent vision and his undiscovered pass catching skills (TCU doesn't use the RB's so no one was sure, but he showed out in TC and in preseason) should keep him out there on 3rd down - where you can face softer run D's.   And on a 3rd and 5-6, we may see 2-3 of those.  Those are huge 10-15+ yard run opps.   The other part Miller excels at - his vision and balance.   So while the NO run game has looked pedestrian - Miller upgrades it in a massive way.   Jamal Wiliiams and Tony Jones both leave yards on the field, Kendre Miller likely can max it out.

-The 39.5 line isn't because Vegas doesn't trust Miller, it's because they don't trust the NO run game.  See more on that later.   Their TD lines have Miller at better odds than Jones.  That already speaks to their belief he will have a bigger timeshare than Jones.  This is an example of using the book's other lines to help guide where they are looking. 

 

RISK:

Now, the reasons why the total is set so low, and why Miller could go below:

-He is on his first game back.  The coaches may indeed want to pace him.  The problem is if they want to win this game, they both need to use the better RB, and open up the pass game.  

-It's VERY debatable if OC Peter Carmichael & HC Dennis Allen will for sure do this - they do silly s*** like throw it 3x to Taysom Hill in the TE position over Juwan Johnson, or wait to feature Rasheed Shaheed until 50+ mins are gone.   So asking if Allen/Carmichael will play Jones more, nothing in their first 2 weeks suggests that, but it's still a possibility.  Their past decisions actually say the opposite, but that doesn't prevent Allen/Carmichael from making the wrong decision (they've done it enough in past 1+ seasons on player deployment lol).

-The NO run game only put up 68 yards rushing week 1, and while they put up 137 yards on Week 2 - 75 were by Taysom Hill on those designed QB runs.   The RB's combined are just rushing for 60-70 yards a game.    Vegas projecting 40+ for Kendre isn't because they don't trust him, it's because they're projecting a split of RB work, and upgrading the #'s vs.  a softer GB run D.   Now, if NO wants to run Taysom 12-15x, and Jones 5x, then Kendre might only get 10+ touches, and the alt line is near dead, and 40+ is more at risk.  But keep in mind the above points, and team data Vegas will be using, and decide for yourself, vs. the GB run D, whether the line looks too low.   If they're projecting 70-80 yards from the RB's and 30+ from Taysom, 40 is just an even split.   But again, I'll point out TD-wise, they have Miller in front of Tony Jones by a fair margin.

 

I personally believe NO should run it 30x for 5 YPC against GB.   It's just a matter of who gets it.   I think Taysom will get it 6-8x, and up to 10-12x.   I believe Kendre Miller's touch share would be about 12-15, and Tony Jones around 6-8 (6-8 too many IMO, but whatevs lol).    The perception that Tony Jones is ahead of Kendre Miller would be extremely wild, given what we've seen both in preseason, and knowing how Tony Jones made the team.   It's the 2-TD's and being the only available RB last week that is influencing perception here - and why I choose to take it.   Recency bias is strong, and if Tony Jones ran for 12-34 and didn't score a TD, ppl would likely have zero doubt which RB would carry the load.   Still, the biggest point besides re-injury on why this prop could fail - HC Dennis Allen & OC Pete Carmichael don't make the best O personnel / strategic decisions.    

I totally get the worry - if there were ANY reliable RB's on the roster, I'd sit tight and wait (kinda like how I'm waiting 2 weeks on Jeudy before diving in - that 49.5 prop is so obscene, but I know DEN can throw it other guys even if they aren't as explosive/effective).   Next week, with Kamara back, I'm likely waiting to see how that shakes out, because Kamara is obv capable (duh).   Still, the risk of re-injury, the Taysom show & Allen/Carmichael coaching mismanagement leading to an U40 are all in play.   But it's also why the total is so low vs. GB, and the alt line is so tasty (I have 15-72 as my projection - NGL, if there was a 100+ projection, given it would be like +1500 to +2000, I'd have gone there).     So I'll stand on the play, and live with the results.  BOL!

 

PS - Love that we disagree on stuff, I welcome it and encourage it more with picks / props / plays.   No matter which way the prop goes, I would MUCH rather have disagreement and back / forth (that's productive & civil of course); it's how we learn from each other.   It would be boring if we were just an echo chamber for each other, and frankly, not how we make $ together off the books.

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Double post 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

So my big ticket I placed for Sunday is a parlay. It’s Chiefs ML + Cowboys ML + Pollard ATTD + Robinson Jr. over 54.5 rushing yards. 
 

I might have some smaller tickets bc I see some of what y’all are posting that I like that. Thanks for a lot of insight. 

[Broncofan]

58 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

So my big ticket I placed for Sunday is a parlay. It’s Chiefs ML + Cowboys ML + Pollard ATTD + Robinson Jr. over 54.5 rushing yards. 
 

I might have some smaller tickets bc I see some of what y’all are posting that I like that. Thanks for a lot of insight. 

Less than 10%, even 5% of your weekly stake should be parleys.   The higher the % the harder it is to be profitable.   That’s my best insight tbh.  

[N4L]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

 

Let me expand on why I believe Miller is a strong play, beyond just the low line (but yes, it's partly that - because it makes 70 / 75 yards an amazing +600 value), and recognize the risk as well.  Here goes:

 

FOR:

-Tony Jones does NOT appear to  have the trust of the coaches.  As the only healthy backup RB in week 1, he took all of 7 snaps, and 3 carries, to Jamal Williams 49 (Taysom Hill for the 9 other missing snaps).    In week 2, Jamal Williams was in for 18 of the first 21 plays until he got hurt, Taysom for 2 and Tony Jones for 1 snap.   1 out of 21.      Being the only guy left, he played 41 of the last 51 snaps, but there was literally no one.  Now I say "appear" for an import reason later on...

-I've played Tony Jones TD props before, and sadly, I've come to the conclusion that Tony Jones just sucks at football.  Sean Payton loves all ex-Saints even when the suck (Adam Trautman living testament), and he couldn't keep Tony Jones.   Remember that Jones wasn't even on the roster, and was signed at roster cuts only when Kendre Miller got hurt, and was unlikely to be active the first 2 weeks.  Yes, the 2 TD's are shiny, but against a weak CAR run D (weaker especially once Shaq Thompson left), he managed 12-34...and it was rough viewing.  The guy has no juice left.   As much as I despair over NO over-using Taysom Hill (a total 0 in the pass game, and not a real QB), using him in the run game last week over Tony Jones was the 100% right call.  FWIW, I believe Tony Jones line will come in at 25-30 yds, and I'd take the under there if I were an under bettor.

-Miller didn't just return off the injury list, he was 50-50 to play MNF last week.   So he got a full week without any limitations, all full practices (FP's).  Even before the Week 2 game, the reporters said they were keeping him for Week 3, to be safe.    So it's not like he is being rushed back now.    Now, to be clear, Miller would have been behind Jamal Williams, and likely only taken 20-25% of snaps at most.   If NO had a reliable RB, I 100 percent agree they'd ease Miller in.  But they don't this week.     They will with Kamara back next week - which lets them be more heavy on Kendre's workload for 1 game only. 

-As mentioned, GB run D isn't just a soft run D, they're a smash spot run D - because they are so much better in pass coverage, it's a run funnel D.    As much as NO's run game has struggled (some on OL, some on predictable playcalling, a lot on the RB's involved - both Jamal Williams <starting to hit wall> & Tony Jones <never was good>.    Miller only needs 10+ carries to get to 40+ yards IMO.     Give him 15-18, and that 75 looks awful juicy.    So the real Q is how many run plays will NO call?   If they call 30 run plays, I only need Kendre to get 50-60 percent.  That's my projection, that Kendre basically shares the work.  

-Finally, Miller isn't a 75-yard, score it all at once player - but his excellent vision and his undiscovered pass catching skills (TCU doesn't use the RB's so no one was sure, but he showed out in TC and in preseason) should keep him out there on 3rd down - where you can face softer run D's.   And on a 3rd and 5-6, we may see 2-3 of those.  Those are huge 10-15+ yard run opps.   The other part Miller excels at - his vision and balance.   So while the NO run game has looked pedestrian - Miller upgrades it in a massive way.   Jamal Wiliiams and Tony Jones both leave yards on the field, Kendre Miller likely can max it out.

-The 39.5 line isn't because Vegas doesn't trust Miller, it's because they don't trust the NO run game.  See more on that later.   Their TD lines have Miller at better odds than Jones.  That already speaks to their belief he will have a bigger timeshare than Jones.  This is an example of using the book's other lines to help guide where they are looking. 

 

RISK:

Now, the reasons why the total is set so low, and why Miller could go below:

-He is on his first game back.  The coaches may indeed want to pace him.  The problem is if they want to win this game, they both need to use the better RB, and open up the pass game.  

-It's VERY debatable if OC Peter Carmichael & HC Dennis Allen will for sure do this - they do silly s*** like throw it 3x to Taysom Hill in the TE position over Juwan Johnson, or wait to feature Rasheed Shaheed until 50+ mins are gone.   So asking if Allen/Carmichael will play Jones more, nothing in their first 2 weeks suggests that, but it's still a possibility.  Their past decisions actually say the opposite, but that doesn't prevent Allen/Carmichael from making the wrong decision (they've done it enough in past 1+ seasons on player deployment lol).

-The NO run game only put up 68 yards rushing week 1, and while they put up 137 yards on Week 2 - 75 were by Taysom Hill on those designed QB runs.   The RB's combined are just rushing for 60-70 yards a game.    Vegas projecting 40+ for Kendre isn't because they don't trust him, it's because they're projecting a split of RB work, and upgrading the #'s vs.  a softer GB run D.   Now, if NO wants to run Taysom 12-15x, and Jones 5x, then Kendre might only get 10+ touches, and the alt line is near dead, and 40+ is more at risk.  But keep in mind the above points, and team data Vegas will be using, and decide for yourself, vs. the GB run D, whether the line looks too low.   If they're projecting 70-80 yards from the RB's and 30+ from Taysom, 40 is just an even split.   But again, I'll point out TD-wise, they have Miller in front of Tony Jones by a fair margin.

 

I personally believe NO should run it 30x for 5 YPC against GB.   It's just a matter of who gets it.   I think Taysom will get it 6-8x, and up to 10-12x.   I believe Kendre Miller's touch share would be about 12-15, and Tony Jones around 6-8 (6-8 too many IMO, but whatevs lol).    The perception that Tony Jones is ahead of Kendre Miller would be extremely wild, given what we've seen both in preseason, and knowing how Tony Jones made the team.   It's the 2-TD's and being the only available RB last week that is influencing perception here - and why I choose to take it.   Recency bias is strong, and if Tony Jones ran for 12-34 and didn't score a TD, ppl would likely have zero doubt which RB would carry the load.   Still, the biggest point besides re-injury on why this prop could fail - HC Dennis Allen & OC Pete Carmichael don't make the best decisions.    

I totally get the worry - if there were ANY reliable RB's on the roster, I'd sit tight and wait (kinda like how I'm waiting 2 weeks on Jeudy before diving in - that 49.5 prop is so obscene, but I know DEN can throw it other guys even if they aren't as explosive/effective).   Next week, with Kamara back, I'm likely waiting to see how that shakes out, because Kamara is obv capable (duh).   Still, the risk of re-injury, the Taysom show & Allen/Carmichael coaching mismanagement leading to an U40 are all in play.   But it's also why the total is so low vs. GB, and the alt line is so tasty (I have 15-72 as my projection - NGL, if there was a 100+ projection, given it would be like +1500 to +2000, I'd have gone there).     So I'll stand on the play, and live with the results.  BOL!

 

PS - Love that we disagree on stuff, I welcome it with picks / props / plays.   No matter which way the prop goes, I would MUCH rather have disagreement and back / forth (that's productive & civil of course); it's how we learn from each other.   It would be boring if we were just an echo chamber for each other, and frankly, not how we make $ together off the books.

 

You are an absolute legend for the thoroughness of this response, along with all of your plays and how transparent you are with everything. Your TD props raise you to immortal status. 

I'm going to tail you on this one. Cheers 

[Broncofan]

11 hours ago, N4L said:

You are an absolute legend for the thoroughness of this response, along with all of your plays and how transparent you are with everything. Your TD props raise you to immortal status. 

I'm going to tail you on this one. Cheers 

Yeah and it’s not without risk.   But the payoff of 8U for 3U stake is worth it IMO.   Nothing is a lock but it’s about the probability and potential payout.   
 

One final stat I just heard on SiriusXM today  - GB run D is allowing 10+ yard runs just under 15 percent of their opponent’s  rushes.   ATL I can see how that would happen but CHI was included.   To get to 40+ just has so many paths to get there. 

Edited September 24, 2023 by Broncofan

[Dash]

Draftkings SGPx 

Cousins over 274.5 passing yards

Cousins 3+ touchdowns

Cousins 25+ completions

Herbert over 274.5 passing yards

Kelley over 54.5 rushing yards

Allen over 69.5 receiving yards

Williams over 49.5 receiving yards

Mark Andrews over 49.5 receiving yards

Zay Flowers over 49.5 receiving yards

Bijan Robinson over 19.5 receiving yards

Jahmyr Gibbs over 19.5 receiving yards

Amari Cooper over 54.5 receiving yards

Elijah Moore over 24.5 receiving yards

Nico Collins over 49.5 receiving yards

Robert Woods over 29.5 receiving yards

 

Bet - $25

Payout - $14k

[JonStark]

9 minutes ago, Dash said:

Draftkings SGPx 

Cousins over 274.5 passing yards

Cousins 3+ touchdowns

Cousins 25+ completions

Herbert over 274.5 passing yards

Kelley over 54.5 rushing yards

Allen over 69.5 receiving yards

Williams over 49.5 receiving yards

Mark Andrews over 49.5 receiving yards

Zay Flowers over 49.5 receiving yards

Bijan Robinson over 19.5 receiving yards

Jahmyr Gibbs over 19.5 receiving yards

Amari Cooper over 54.5 receiving yards

Elijah Moore over 24.5 receiving yards

Nico Collins over 49.5 receiving yards

Robert Woods over 29.5 receiving yards

 

Bet - $25

Payout - $14k

May be the beer, but I'm tailing this. 

[Rainmaker90]

Great day yesterday, had Florida St large, Oklahoma and ND 3.5.

 

For NFL I added Mia -6

 

and Miami and Buffalo teased at even 

[Broncofan]

FINAL SUNDAY ADDITIONS (updated full list on Page 325)

KEEPING:  Zay Flowers O48.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +300, 100+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK - IND secondary matchup is a beauty (see HOU pass O, Nico Collins), and Flowers is the undisputed alpha in this group.   Mark Andrews is the one risk, but IND's run D is very good, so it sets up a pass funnel situation.  The 100+ is a reach, but the value is good there (I'm sure B365 will be better, if you have it, check it out) EDIT SUN AM:  The wind forecasts have definitely died down, so I'm willing to stick with it, rather than take the 10-15% cashout loss on the props.   Will bank on short area throws and YAC ability to remain.   

FINAL EARLY TD PROP ADDED SUN AM:  Robbie Chosen (formerly Robbie Anderson then Chosen Anderson...lol) +2100 (+1400 + 50% DK Boost) / +16000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - well, I had 1 50 percent boost token left, I was going to use it on Cole Turner alt line for yards, or main line for yards, but I've had my eye on the MIA PS receiver so I'll go here.  Why?  Simple, MIA LOVES size/speed, and the 2 guys that are replacing Jaylen Waddle (Braxton Berrios & River Cracraft), don't have it (Berrios has speed but no size).   So I think even though he's on the PS, he'll get looks.   And with the 50% boost to +2100 on DK, that's good enough for me.   If you "only" have +1400, that's probably worth a 0.25U/0.05U play.

OK so that's 3U in ATS/ML plays, 26U in 8 player props (gulp) and 8U in 9 player TD props (double-gulp), so a total of 37U in plays out  for Sunday, plus the free 0.4U parley with 7-player props (N-Collins rec yds / R-Mostert rush yds / Z-Flowers rec yds / R-Shaheed rec yds / M-Williams rec yds / Rhamondre rec yds / K-Walker rush yds).   BOL!

 
WEEK 3 to TNF

ATS/ML - 2-4-1, -2U total

PLAYER PROPS - 14-14, -0.2U

LONGSHOT TD - 6-24, +22.1U (Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000)

TOTAL - +19.9U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3 TNF: +2.6U, 101U stake so far)

Edited September 24, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Two guys I am very confident in for fantasy this week, Mike Williams and Michael Pittman... Williams is obvious bc of the matchup and LA is desperate for a win. Minshew playing should mean Pittman peppered with targets, especially in the RZ. Taking a lil parlay (I know!) for both of them to score, +755

[Dash]

11 hours ago, JonStark said:

May be the beer, but I'm tailing this. 

Pretty confident this can win. 

All the receiving props are super reasonable given that no one has to get even over 75 yards. 

Given the potential shootout Herbert and Cousins should easily cross their props as well.

The one play I'm wary of is Herbert passing yards if the Chargers wise up and run it down the Vikings throats like the Eagles. He only passed for 228 in the Miami game. 

 

 

 

Have a softer parlay that pays out $1,500 on $10 by just reducing some of the receiving yardage props by 10 yards,taking out Herbert passing yards, and Chargers over 2.5 touchdowns.