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BStanRamFan

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Speaking of something that I wont get back. Thats betting on Pollard ATTD. Im fading him until Dallas can show a pulse in the redzone. 

I was so tempted to bet CMC for 2 ATTD but didnt pull the trigger. And now I regret it bc I ended up going Pollard ATTD. 

Oh well if the Chiefs can win tonight Ill go 2 out 3 of my parlays for today. Yesterday I hit my only college parlay which was good too. 

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47 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

something that I wont get back

Juice was about 1.3 inches from scoring for me today. The one part I hate about gambling, it takes some of the fun out of a win. Instead of celebrating a Purdy score I'm cursing the football gods under my breath 😂

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Well last TD prop I have tonight is Noah Gray at +700 - with a 60% snap count and regular snaps in the RZ it was an easy call.  But Bodog put out Blake Bell at +4000 so I have to take a 0.5U stab.  Hope Taylor doesn’t mind another TE scoring besides Kelce lol.  If either Gray or Bell scores I’m good but I’d be sick holding a Gray ticket watching Blake Bell score lol. 

Edited by Broncofan
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Went 1-1 in SNF-dedicated plays. 


Chiefs -1 / Chiefs Jets U49 (1u) - Both of these were more of a sweat than I ever imagined. Happy to come out with a unit here. 

Zach Wilson U173.5 Yards + U28.5 Attempts + 17.5 Completions (0.5u) - I leaned in hard to my prediction that Zach Wilson would not finish this game for the Jets, & I was rewarded with Wilson's career best game. That said, this is exactly why I parlayed this at a half unit instead of playing one of them at a full unit. If the narrative was true, all of them likely would've hit. Even if it wasn't true - and he played all 4Q - there was an opportunity for this to hit. 

 

+0.5u on the SNF slate. 

 

I really like the Seahawks/Giants card & I am leaning in HEAVY on my prediction that the Seahawks win this game by 7+. Daniel Jones is 0-6 on MNF. Seattle is undefeated at MetLife. They are the better team. For the MNF slate I have.....


Seahawks ML (1u @ +120) - I got this line when it first came out & NYG was favored by 1.5. 

Seahawks Race10 (1u @ +100) - Same as above. Seattle's defense has been tremendous in the 1H of games. First game with Spoon, Woolen, & Adams playing should have those guys amped. 

Seahawks +8 - Last leg of a big teaser. 

O40 - I have this as a last leg on 2 different teasers. 

Seahawks 1H -0.5 (1u @ +100) - Same logic as the Race. Seattle's defense has been lock down in the 1H. 

Geno Smith O1.5 TDs (1u @ +100) - He's done this in 1/3 games so far. That said, the Giants are beatable in the secondary & I think Geno shows up for the lights. I'll predict this hits in the 3Q. 

Daniel Jones O32.5 Attempts (2u @ -110) - This number is at least 2 attempts too low & one of my highest confidence prop plays (I never go 2u on props). The Seahawks have allowed attempts of 38, 35, & 58 in their 3 games. The run defense has been exceptional, Saquon is out, & DJones has all of his weapons healthy. I'll bet he finishes in the high 30s. Outside of a Giants blowout, I consider this gamescript proof. 

Daniel Jones O0.5 INTs (1u @ +115) - If I'm betting on the Over Attempts, you better believe I'm hitting this too. Spoon has been excellent. Woolen is a ball hawk. Adams is a ball hawk. Quandre Diggs is a ball hawk. Again, I find this gamescript proof. 

Ken Walker O10.5 Receiving (1u @ -110) - This is crazy low. Vegas is still baking in way too much historical volume on this. Seattle has made a concerted effort to get Walker involved in the pass game early, with 4 catches Week 1 & nearly 60 yards last week. He can easily hit this on a single catch with his YAC ability. Gamescript proof. 

Matt Breida U47.5 Rushing (1u @ -110) - David Montgomery is the only RB to exceed 3.5 YPC against Seattle this year. The only other RB to eclipse 3.0 YPC is Kyren Williams. If my assumption on this game is correct, Breida shouldn't see the volume to entertain this number. The Over is counting on one huge rush or a Giants blowout. 

Zach Charbonnet O22.5 Rushing (1u @ -110) - As I type this explanation, I want to put another unit on this. Charbonnet has seen his rushing opportunities increase from 3 to 4 to 9 over the last 3 weeks. The team is clearly ramping him up. He nearly had 50 yards last week. My guess is he can hit this number at 6+ carries, which is more than doable. This is nearly gamescript proof. 

JSN O2.5 Catches + O27.5 Receiving (0.5u @ +200) Similar to my strategy with Zach Wilson, I'd rather parlay two corresponding lines on a player I'm not super confident in. Cheaper wager, pays out more, & if my narrative is correct, both should hit. JSN is overdue for a big(ish) game. 

 

Edited by SaveOurSonics
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& I placed a few more Futures.....

 

Ravens to Win Division (1u @ +115) - I couldn't believe this was still +money after today's game. With Cincy limping, Chubb gone, & the Steelers just being bad, this feels like great value. I'll likely throw another unit on this. 

Jaguars to Win Division (0.75u @ +125) - You might remember I already hit this at -money earlier in the year. I'm coming back after a win against Atlanta keeps them in the +money. The Titans aren't good, the Colts aren't consistent, & the Texans are the only legitimate threat, but I expect Jacksonville to outlast them. That said.....

Texans to Win Division (0.25u @ +500) - Like I said, if anyone competes with Jacksonville, it will be this Houston team. Even after today's win, their odds were longest in the AFC South. 

 

I also got in early (again) on the Texans. Currently sitting at +2.5 @ Atlanta next week. I went ahead and took their ML @ +120

 

PS: Feeling pretty good about that First Coach Fired future I placed. The Bears don't fire in-season, but they are playing embarrassing football right now & if they continue to go winless, it will be tough to avoid the media firestorm. That said, they have a pretty soft schedule upcoming. That said, they just blew a 21 point lead to a bad Broncos team at home. My next biggest payout is Brandon Staley. They barely beat a backup rookie QB today. His decision making is miserable. His seat is very hot. And if neither of those hit, I hedged with Josh McDaniels, who might be the only HC who is more dense than Staley. My range of outcomes between those 3 options is 0u-+1.7u. 

 

& a quick update on my Preseason Future Plays..... 


Michael Pittman O72.5 Catches (2u @ -110) - This is trending very well. 72.5 was insanely low for a guy who had nearly 200 catches the previous 2 seasons. 

Jahan Dotson O57.5 Catches (1u @ -110) - You wouldn't think so, but this is actually pacing right on target. After a 9 target game (only 4 catches) & the game tying catch, I'm hoping Howell starts to get him more involved. 

Nico Collins O600.5 Yards (1u @ -110) - This might legitimately hit in the next 2 games. He's less than 200 yards away after Week 4. 

Keenan Allen O83.5 Catches (1u @ -110) - He had 18 catches last week. The only thing stopping this from hitting is health. 

Christian Kirk O70.5 Catches (1u @ -110) - This is trending very nicely. 

Calvin Ridley O72.5 Catches (1u @ -110) - The Jaguars two leading WRs last season each recorded 80+ receptions. I loved playing both Jags WRs here. Ridley started hot but has cooled off. Hoping for better days ahead. 

Jordan Addison O675.5 Yards (1u @ -110) - He's currently on pace for about 800 yards, even after a 0 yard performance this week. He hasn't even been playing that well. This should hit. 

Diontae Johnson O82.5 Catches (1u @ -110) - Obviously this one doesn't look great. Shame. 

David Montgomery O5.5 RushTDs (1u @ -110) - He's currently at 5 after missing a game. This is a slam dunk. 

Dameion Pierce O5.5 RushTDs (1u @ -110) - If you told me the Texans offense would be THIS good, I would've loved this play even more. He only has 1 through 4 games, but good indicators of future success here. 

Bijan Robinson OROY (2u @ +300) - I was low on Bryce Young which made me like this bet. I didn't expect Stroud (my QB1) to be this good this early. I plan to look at Stroud's odds tomorrow & place a Bijan hedge. 

 

Edited by SaveOurSonics
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On 9/27/2023 at 5:50 PM, Broncofan said:

While we wait for final TNF reports to allow release of rushing props for TNF, there are some Sunday plays trickling out, that I def want to take now to get ahead of the line rise, given I'm going with the Week 1-3 data, and concentrating alt lines on top 2 WR targets, and TE/RB's with top 3 shares, and RB's with strong usage and great matchups.

 

WEEK 4 SUNDAY CARD

ATS/ML (3-7-1, -4U)

EARLY

HOU ML +140 (EDIT FRI PM:  PASS!!) - until PIT shows they can fix their O, and realizing that the HOU O can actually function, I'm OK with taking + odds here as a home dog.    I won't put this bet in until I get the final injury report, though, as I want to see LT Tunsil ready to go.   If Tunsil can't go, that changes the play to a pass.  EDIT: The HOU injury report for the OL is holy **** ugly.   Change to a PASS   

MIA ML +130 (10-pt auto-win on DK) - BUF has always been a terrible problem for MIA, which is why they are the fave - but I've seen enough of Vic Fangio's D and MIA's speed improvements across the board to call this as a MIA W.   With Von Miller, it's a different story, but at this point in the year, have to take the dog odds.

LAR ML +100 @ IND - this IMO is an overreaction to IND's win over BAL, and LAR losing to a great CIN D, and a terrific adjustment by CIN on O.    IND doesn't provide the same kind of pass coverage and pass D problems, which sets up great for Stafford, Puca & Atwell to have a bounce-back game.  

NO -3 vs. TAM - this is all about the matchups; NO gave fits to TAM when TB12 was the QB, and their OL and pass D were better.   TAM isn't even close to as good, and while Jameis Winston could go 3+ TO's and give it away, that's the only path to victory I see with TAM in the Big Easy.

LATE

Nothing yet that's appealing

SNF/MNF

SEA ML +100 (MNF 10-pt lead auto-win on DK) - I really respect Brian Daboll as a HC.   And the SEA D is vulnerable.  But without Saquon Barkley, I'm not sure the G-men O can capitalize - and the SEA run game and WR's should exploit NYG D's mercilessly.    TBH, this might be a 2U play on MNF, depending on how the weekend goes.

 

So that's 4U so far (with HOU ML removed Fri PM) 

 

PLAYER PROPS (21-23, +0.2U)

UK GAME

Christian Kirk O48.5 rec yds 2U FD / 75+ +260 1U DK / 100+ +700 0.5U DK - the Jags just announced Zay Jones is doubtful.  When Jones doesn't play, that means Kirk plays slot AND outside in 2-WR formation.   His target share is massive (with Ridley) when that happens - except Ridley's total is literally 20+ yards higher.     Smash Smash Smash it now - this line is going to skyrocket with Zay Jones news

 

NEW ADDED FRI PM: Bijan Robinson o25.5 Rec yes 2U / 50+ Rec yds +320 1U DK - @SaveOurSonics original call for the main line Jax run D is stellar but as per @N4L’s stays they’ve given up 6-7 catches 30+ Rec yds to the IND / HOU RB and 40+ to the KC RB’s.   Now they get Bijan?  Have to take this shot.

 

EARLY

Raheem Mostert O51.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ +300 1U, 100+ +900 0.5U DK - please, Raheem, be healthy for the game.  I imagine this is partly due to Devon Achane's stellar 2H performance - but keep in mind Mostert is stil the 70-30 guy (Achane taking over most of the work in 2H coincided with MIA being 30+ pts ahead).    

ADDED SUN AM:   Jaylen Waddle o61.5 rec yds 2U DK - he thrives vs zone.   BUF almost total zone.  With UK game going 2-0 and 1 alt line hit, I’ll take the 2U play here.
 

Amari Cooper O58.5 rec yds 2U, 80 yd FD line pending, 100+ rec yds +450 - with Nick Chubb out, and BAL's stout run D, we're likely going to see another Cooper 10+ target game.  CLE transitioned to a mobile pass game with Chubb gone, I believe they'll do the same hee.   Wherever the line lands once alt lines come out, IMO it's going to be too low, as my number was 6-75 for Cooper vs. BAL's pass funnel D.    The DK 75+ wasn't great at +160, so I'll wait on the 80-yd FD line and hope it's +200 or better.

Jerry Jeudy O52.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - he's baaaaaack.  He survived for the first 2 weeks back, and 6 weeks+ out, he should have his hammy be OK, and what a time to come back, with the Bears D in disarray..   

DJ Moore O43.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +320 1U, 100+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK - I don't know if ppl realize just how bad DEN's D is.  We can't stop the run, but we also can't stop the pass - and Vance Joseph does NOT use PS2 in shadow coverage, we play this read and react zone that is so passive.   At that number, I'm happy to take it.   I won't take the alt lines for now, but let's see how TNF goes before making a final call.

Rasheed Shaheed O35.5 rec yds 2U / 50+ rec yds +200 1U DK - I know, I know, I said no more NO props until Carmichael / Dennis Allen show me otherwise.   The reason I'm changing my tune is 2-fold - first, this is a pass funnel D to the nth degree.   TAM got manhandled in the run game by PHI, but that's how great their OL is.  NO is nowhere close.  The other reason - gunslinger Jameis Winston is back in town, and if there's a guy who's unafraid to take the deep shot, it's Famous Jameis.   Happy to get 50+ at +200 too.

NEW FRI AM - Joe Mixon U55.5 rush yds 2U DK - tailing @SmittyBacall on the 2 Bengal props, I believe only 3 RB's have rushed for more than 55 yards on the Titans D in the last 3 years.    So easy call, especially when I combine it with:

NEW FRI AM - Tee Higgins O56.5 rec yds 2U (now 57.5) / 75+ rec yds +200 1U (now +180) / 100+ +480 (now +450) 0.5U DK - Smitty covered this, nothing really needed to add.  The Roger McCreary spot and Tee's return to his home state after probably his worst game ever - like AJ Brown, sets up for a big rebound. I'm in. 

 

LATE

Nothing out yet

SNF/MNF

Nothing out yet

That's 30U in plays so far.  As I was given a free 0.4U play, I'm going with the 7-leg (Mixon U55.5, / Kirk O48.5 / Jeudy O52.5 / DJ Moore O43.5 / Shaheed O35.5 / Cooper O60.5 / Mostert O51.5 for +7200 - YOLO!. 

 

LONGSHOT TD (9-38, +24.4U)

UK GAME

Tim Jones +1000 0.4U FD / +12500 Bovada / Bodog 0.1U  - Zay Jones is doubtful, so Tim Jones becomes the 3rd WR in the RZ rotation (Jamal Agnew is the gadget / between 20's guy & occ RZ snaps, but Jones is the bigger body).  I honestly think books don't have him because they get Zay & Tim mixed up.  Another example where having diff books pays off in closing line value (CLV).

Jonnu Smith +800 / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U (+600 or +500 elsewhere) - @SaveOurSonics covered it, the Falcons are giving him as many targets as Kyle Pitts (!!! lol) and he's on the field so much in RZ territory with 12 formation.   Worth the 0.4U / 0.1U stab.

EARLY

Tanner Hudson +1000 / +12500 0.4U / 0.1U B365 / Bodog /Bovada (full credit to @SmittyBacall here) - Irv Smith DNP, known hammy injury that he missed week 3 for, high likelihood he doesn't play, and TEN pass D great target.

Trent Sherfield +1000 Bodog (+850 DK, +600 FD lol) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U/0.1U & Khalil Shakir (+1000 DK & FD, +450 Bodog lol) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - this is a cheap way to get a piece of the BUF-MIA game TD wise.    Both split the slot work in the RZ (Deonte Hardy gets most of his work between the 20's).   Given how much of a shootout this projects to be, totally worth it to play both, especially given the wide variation in lines.  I show the wide variation in odds to demonstrate why it's important to have multiple books, both guys are NOT playable at the lowest lines.

NEW FRI AM - Brevin Jordan +1600 Bodog, +1500 DK 0.4U / +17000 2+ DK 0.1U - Seeing Dalton Schultz, it's clear his lack of athleticism doesn't play well in HOU's uptempo O.   Jordan's only been on the field for about 12-15 plays, but he's showing better chemistry, and he scored as a +3000 play (!!!) last week.   Wish I knew he was that high.   He's got the Parham / Juwan / Jody Fortson profile of the 2nd TE who's a matchup problem.   Only a 0.5U play until I know if he's going to be packaged near the EZ more. 

NEW FRI AM - Brycen Hopkins +1300 / +15000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - why the 1U play?   Well, Tyler Higbee played on MNF an missed both Wed & Thu practices, with an Achilles injury.   I'd still play this for 0.5U if Higbee was confirmed to be in - but with his status in doubt, I'll jump in for +1300.  As a contrast, Bodog has Hopkins in for +275, so they obv think Higbee isn't playing.  Fingers crossed...another athletic mismatch to root for.

NEW SAT AM - Juwan Johnson +425 / +7250 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - got a 50 percent boost but only applicable to a max 0.2U bet, so going to the well with Juwan, with a pass funnel  in TAM.  

Keep an eye out on DK/FD for both Hudson & Tim Jones daily, and on Sunday AM, when inactives are out. 

NEW SAT - Harrison Bryant +1200 / +15000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK -  wasn't up for long with Njoku news but obv mega value.   Hopefully unlike Cole Turner he finds the EZ lol. 
 

NEW SUN AM: Equinameous St Brown +1800 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK added with Chase Claypool inactive - still likely a donation but he’s likely active and only big body wr with any experience today - playable up to +1000 but only half-stake. 

LATE

Nothing out yet


SNF/MNF

SNF

NEW FRI AM - Noah Gray +700 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - this DK line is crazy, he's anywhere from +250 (lol) to +450 everywhere else.  With the Jets' CB's, again this funnels to the TE's, and I'm sure the attention will go to Kelce.   Gray is actually on the field >60 percent of the time, and in the RZ, with 12 formation, I think he's a designed target this week at least 1-2x.   Now, Gray's missed 2 practices with a flu-like illness, so if he's out, take Blake Bell instead.

NEW SUN PM - Blake Bell +4000 Bodog - entered for full record as a 0.5U play prior to SNF.    No reasoning, except NYJ TE D bad, and 40-1 is insane given that Bell sees about 1/4 of snaps in RZ.

 

NEW SAT AM - Jalin Hyatt +900 FD (now +750) / +9000 DK 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U - was able to get this at opening, still playable at +600 at 0.5U or better.   Deep middle threat who's getting more snaps and targets, with SEA's vulnerable secondary. 

That now makes a total of 7U for SUN TD props (Hyatt's for MNF), and so 41U total for Sun/Mon, so I'll stop for now.

 

WEEK 4 to TNF

ATS/ML - 4-7-1, -3U (Wk4: 1-0, +1U)

PLAYER PROPS - 21-23, +0.2U (Wk4: 2-1, +5.4U)

LONGSHOT TD - 8-39, +24.2U (Wk4: 0-2, -1.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +21.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: +4.9U; 166U stake so far)

Well, that was a ROUGH Week 4 early slate - after being up 4.1U from the UK game, it got ugly in a hurry:

WEEK 1 TNF

ATS/ML - 1-2, -1U - MIA was simply a bad, bad call, and I got ambushed by NO going with a clearly-nowhere-near-100 percent Derek Carr (and yes, that awful coaching by Dennis Allen / Peter Carmichael bit me hard).   LAR was correct, waiting on SEA.    

PLAYER PROPS - 4-8, -3.1U - a clear lesson in getting the game script wrong, with CIN-TEN, MIA-BUF and NO's O all costing me 14U in 5 plays - Mostert / Waddle for MIA,  Higgins (who did get hurt) & Mixon unders, and Shaheed (OK, I've learned my lesson with NO).  Fortunate to get an early line that hit with Jeudy, and a massive alt line hit with DJ Moore & a nice high-odds Christian Kirk are the reasons why it was "only" a -2.2U loss.   EDIT:  MNF ugly, ugly, ugly.    SEA rush props barely hit, but I took the NYG pass props, and only 2 guys hit (Breida & Wandale - who def is becoming their go-to guy volume wise).   Sigh. 

TD PROPS - 1-11, -3.1U - NGL, I was feeling very down with all 3 of my late-breaking news guys having the starter still active and play.   But then Noah Gray brought my props from the dead at +700, so it's not great, but could have been far worse.  I'll take it.

It's tough, because I started with UK game up 4.1U, and by end of day times, I was at -10.7U - so that Sun early slate was a -15U swing.   Still, I was looking at -10U+ day, so I'll take the -4.8U Sunday with Gray's TD, lick my wounds, and have Monday decide my fate, at +0.1U for Week 4 so far (lol)

 

WEEK 4 TO MNF:

ATS/ML: 6-9-1, -3U (Wk 4 MNF: 2-2, even)

PLAYER PROPS: 25-31, -7.5U (Wk 4 MNF: 6-7, -2.3U)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-48, +21.1U  (Wk 4: 1-12, -3.1U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +11.1U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; 215U stake so far)

Edited by Broncofan
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WEEK 4 MNF

ATS/ML (5-9-1, -4U)

SEA +100 ML (taken last Thu), now -130 ML (DK 10-pt auto-lead protection) - already covered this before, but with Andrew Thomas out, Saquon Barkley out, that's too much for NYG to cover on the road in the hostile SEA environment.   I do think the NYG pass game will find success (everyone else has), so if ppl like the over, I can't argue that, either.

 

PLAYER PROPS (25-29, -2U)

NEW  ADDED MON AM:  Darius Slayton O38.5 rec yds FD 2U, 75+ rec yds DK +400 1U, 100+ rec yds +1000 DK 0.5U - if I love Hyatt's chances for a TD (+900), I have to take the #1 WR on the G-men.  SEA plays zone 85% of the time, and Slayton's 7/ 11 catches are in zone.   He's taking 34 percent of the air yard share, and 44% last year, and is #2 in targets with 17 (and leads the WR's and only WR with 80+ of snaps - Isaiah Hodgins is the guy who loses time to Hyatt now).   SEA's missing their nickel and top 2 backup CB's.  Gotta take the alt line play with Saquon Barkley out.

NEW ADDED  MON AM:  Darren Waller O47.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +300 1U DK - the obvious other play - he's #1 in targets and also has over 80% snap share.   SEA has a terrible TE pass D, bottom 5.   Please, please please don't get hurt this game. 

As usual - if you have B365 - look to those alt lines, as they'll usually be better than DK.

 

LONGSHOT TD (9-48, +22.6U)

ADDED SAT AM Jalin Hyatt +900 FD (now +600) / +9000 DK 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U - was able to get this at opening, still playable at +600 at 0.5U or better.   Deep middle threat who's getting more snaps and targets, with SEA's vulnerable secondary. 

NEW ADDED MON AM - Colby Parkinson +750 / +9000 DK 0.4U/0.1U - Will Dissly is back, which is a headache, but Noah Fant added. to injury report, so Parkinson def worth a half-stake stab.

That now makes a total of 6.5U in player props, 1.5U in TD props and 1U for the ML play, so leaving it at 9U for MNF.   After a rough Sunday daytime slate, hope to keep the SNF momentum with Gray's TD going.  BOL! 

Edited by Broncofan
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