Weekly Bets Thread

[adamq]

Any thoughts on the Fanduel promo?

 

Kamara over 2.5 receptions/ETN over 39.5 rushing yards boosted to +100

 

I dont know how this one fails, but they seemingly always do. Last week they had one, Pollard/Ekeler to combine for 100 rush yards.. I just laughed because FD was gonna do it again, and they did. That one was stayed away from, but this Kamara/ETN boost is so tasty

Edited October 19, 2023 by adamq

[adamq]

On 10/18/2023 at 5:58 PM, Broncofan said:

Alvin Kamara

FD alt receptions..

 

6+  +154

7+  +250

8+ +400

 

9 and 10 are up there too but I just don't see a repeat of a few weeks ago

Edited October 19, 2023 by adamq

[Broncofan]

17 minutes ago, adamq said:

Any thoughts on the Fanduel promo?

 

Kamara over 2.5 receptions/ETN over 39.5 rushing yards boosted to +100

 

I dont know how this one fails, but they seemingly always do. Last week they had one, Pollard/Ekeler to combine for 100 rush yards.. I just laughed because FD was gonna do it again, and they did. That one was stayed away from, but this Kamara/ETN boost is so tasty

If the OL is horrible, then Kamara could get 5+ catches easy and not eclipse 30 yards.   Why?  Because 2 weeks ago, Kamara's ADOT was literally -3 or -4 yards.   Yes, you read that right - he caught the ball 3-4 yards BEHIND the LOS.    It's why I back the catches, but didn't touch the yards.

Last-minute addition, I have to get Tim Jones +2200 / +15000 DK 0.4U/0.1U.   

[adamq]

2 hours ago, adamq said:

FD alt receptions..

 

6+  +154

7+  +250

8+ +400

 

9 and 10 are up there too but I just don't see a repeat of a few weeks ago

Jeeeeez I took 6, 7, and 8 but not 9 or 10. 3 mins left in the 1st half and he has 7 already

[thebestever6]

Damn @Broncofan you did it again soaking in these Kamara catch props at half almost has 8 lol.

[stl4life07]

54 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Damn @Broncofan you did it again soaking in these Kamara catch props at half almost has 8 lol.

Yeah I looked into the Kamara receptions props. It was +100 for O4.5 on DK and the 50% boost got it up to +150 so I bet it. I wish it had an alt line I wouldve bet more but I didnt see it. That was the only bet I made for tonight so it was a success. On to Sunday lol. 

[BStanRamFan]

Gave out the Kamara ladder on my Twitter earlier today.

https://x.com/PropHolliday/status/1715134358820938224?s=20 

 

We climbed it all the way to 9 receptions +1225 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Damn @Broncofan you did it again soaking in these Kamara catch props at half almost has 8 lol.

Trust me, I'm happy for all you guys.  NGL, I'm bummed that FD in ON doesn't offer the alt lines for receptions would have been ALL OVER it - but at least you guys with B365 & FD with alt lines knew what to do.  Oh well, there are a lot of times you guys can't get my action on some books, so I'll celebrate a W for everyone:

ATS/ML - 1-0, +2.6U - Doug Pederson gave me heartburn, but it did help the Kirk props, so I'll take it lo.  

PLAYER PROPS - 2-2, +3.4U - Christian Kirk, I love you.  Derek Carr & Pete Carmichael, I absolutely loathe you.   

TD PROPS - I did take the Etienne super boost for +150, but also lost 0.5U on TIm Jones.   Still, the other props went 0-4 for -2.5U - but man, I have to start getting better TD luck.  BOTH Jamal Agnew & Rashad Shaheed had TD's - Agnew stumbled for a walk in TD at the 2, and Shaheed was horribly overthrown by Carr, and couldn't get the 2nd foot in wide open.  So that's -1.5U net.

I'm not going to complain too much about a +4.5U night when Kirk's TD changed everything around.   But the prime time TD misfortune has GOT to turn around soon:

-The 4 TNF TD's that CHI/WAS missed (Dynami Brown at +1200 for TWO of them, too, and Darnell Mooney at +600), Christian Watson horsecollar on MNF, so many Herbert / Parham chances on MNF, and now Agnew & Shaheed both with TD's literally right there.   Not to mention the 2U +1200 miss on Cole Turner (tackled at 1, and 2 more bad throws in EZ).   That's literally 0-for-10+ chances the past 3 weeks.   Oh well, the big plays are getting chances, sooner later they'll hit lol. 

Still, after the absolute carnage that Week 6 visited on pretty much the entire betting community, we can celebrate a community W with Kirk/Kamara/JAX ML as the big plays, and look to Week 7 Sunday slate!

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Easier to just update my near-full Week 7 card, and it's another doozy....

Some early Sunday plays are out on DK, a few I'm getting on right now because IMO they're going to take off
 

WEEK 7 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML

EARLY

CLE -125 ML DK @ IND - I know Deshaun Watson's status is unclear, and I don't really think it matters.   The IND D losing their top run stuffer really hurts against a top OL, and no one really can cover Amari Cooper.   The CLE D is legit, against Gardner Minshew, seems unfair.   Any given Sunday, but at these near pick 'em odds, I'll go CLE pretty easily.

WAS -125 ML @ NY - I don't think I need to justify this a whole lot.   WAS has their problems, but their DL vs. the NYG OL and Tyrod is a massive problem.  And their run D is stifling.   On the flip side, the NYG can't cover alpha WR's, so I'd expect a big day from Terry Mclaurin (EDIT: barring big wind, which might be an issue), and from the run game. 

DET +140 ML @ BAL - nothing against BAL, but the matchups just favor DET in some very important ways.   I do think Zay Flowers will have a big day, but one of the few times BAL is matched in the trenches.   

LATE

GB -110 ML @ DEN - giving DEN home-field advantage hasn't been a strong play for bettors.   Yes, Jordan Love has been bad.  Yes, the GB run D has been vulnerable.  But the GB OL is very good, and we don't have a Maxx Crosby to disrupt that OL.   Because KC's T's were bad, we generated more pressure, I don't know if we'll see the same on Sunday vs. GB's OL.   And if we don't, only Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain can cover.  

LAC +6 @ KC -125  - there's literally been 1 game in which LAC has lost to KC by 6 pts in the past 5 years.   Thing is, these are essentially the same teams core-wise the past 3+ years, too.    So while I don't feel confident enough to predict a LAC W, this is enough to take the points (paid -15 more to get the 0.5 bump). 

SNF/MNF

Nothing out yet that intrigues me

So that's 5U at stake so far.  I want to see the final injury report and SNF weather reports on winds before committing to MIA@PHI on SNF & SF@MIN on MNF.  I already used my first 0.4U free play for a JAX +130 ML / CLE ML / WAS ML / DET +140 ML / GB ML / LAC +6 / MIA +140 ML for +8600 YOLO 7-leg ML parley (so I can try to hedge that game anytime if PHI gets behind for + money).  

...

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Kyle Pitts O32.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +240 1U, 80+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - this number is just too low in a game where TAM's run D will give ATL some problems (Bijan will get his, but it's not a run funnel game at all) and ATL figures to be behind.   NGL it's scary to have Desmond Ridder having to throw to Pitts, but at 32.5, you can take 2U there and hit the 50+  & 80+ alt lines for really good value.  It's crazy that they treat him differently as a TE, the alt lines are so juiced for the same #'s compared to WR's.   On the flip side....

Mike Evans O56.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +220 1U, 100+ rec yds 1U DK (ALT LINE ADDED FRI AM) - just to contrast, he's already O62.5 rec yds on FD.   That's a massive discrepancy.   Why am I taking Evans at 56.5 yds and not Chris Godwin at 60.5, knowing that ATL's top CB AJ Terrell has been awesome?    Well, 2 reasons.  First, Evans target share has remained consistently highest on the team even when facing top CB matchups (unlike JAX, where it seems they study the matchups a lot).    Secondly, and more importantly, TAM has put Evans in the slot about 30x so far this season - and Terrell does NOT follow.    So I feel safe enough at that number, and as Evans has gone for 81, 96, 75, 46 (in a game AB took 13 targets) and 110 in his last 3 years when Terrell was there, I feel like taking at least 1 alt line here for 80+. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Rhamondre Stevenson O42.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds alt line +340 1U DK - so why would I go back to Rhamondre after barely getting the main line last week?   Simple - the matchup is even better for the NE OL vs. BUF's suddenly vulnerable run D.   Losing both their all-world ILB Matt Milano and their interior disruptor Daquon Jones is why the G-men had success with a patchwork OL.  NE should be able to run for 100+ on BUF's D, even if they lose - and I like Rhamondre for 60-70 of them, so that's main line + 1 alt line.

...

LATE

Christian Watson O48.5 rec yds 2U , 70+ rec yds +200, 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - ARE. YOU.  KIDDING.  ME.   Yes, PS2 is there.  Yes, he might shadow Watson.  But the reality is that Vance Joseph has not put PS2 on exclusive shadow coverage.    And with Watson, you only need 1 play to hit - and he gets #1 WR volume when healthy, which I absolutely believe he is now.   Easy alt line play incoming.

Aaron Jones O50.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +200 1U, 100+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - we've seen this happen in the CHI & WAS games - the RB's go nuts for 80+ or even 100+ yards, and the alpha WR's get 100+.    He's back, and the number is just so low for what DEN D gives up (as opposed to Week 6 TNF, where Pacheco's number was high 70's - no value).   Gotta take the 3.5U full play here along with Watson.

Donald Parham O13.5 rec yds 2U , no alt lines out so far DK - I have 2-3 pet peeves in props & real-life usage.   You all know about Rasheed Shaheed (and NO refusing to use him).   Parham has to be my #2, with Gerald Everett looking washed, and LAC needing to have more pass game weapons with Mike Williams out.   As long as it's below 15, esp with KC's D focusing on the WR's and letting TE's work, I'll keep going 2U, and if it's offered then I'll take the 25-30 yard alt line as well (a late pass breakup on a late read by Herbert is only reason he didn't have 40+ on TNF). 

Rashee Rice O34.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +280, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - while everyone knows about Kelce, they should be paying attention to Rice vs. zone teams.   Rice is absolutely thriving with zone coverage, and with Justin Watson out, I think he'll continue his 5+ target pace (21 in last 4 games), if not exceed it.  I'll definitely want the 60+ yard alt line once it's out at this number.

 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Josh Dobbs O20.5 rush yds 2U, 40+ rush yds 1U DK +280 1U - this has hit 4 of 6 games for 40+, and with SEA's cover CB's back, and their pass rush but bad LB play, this is a strong play in a game I expect SEA to be winning.   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Kenneth Walker O71.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ rush yds 1U +240 DK - this line opened up at 78.5 - WAY too high to take.  But now that it's dropped to 71.5, I'm on board.   I have to take the 100+ play but can't really go much higher, so it's a 3U play.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Trey McBride O20.5 rec yds 2U DK / 40+ rec yds +320 1U / 60+ rec yds +800 0.5U FD - NGL, this is NOT for the faint of heart.   But McBride passed Zach Ertz for snaps last week, and turned his 6 targets into 5-62 last week, and Ertz is clearly showing no more explosion to his game.   And who does McBride get, but the TE-funnel SEA pass D.   Add in the ARI RB situation, and I have to take the 20.5 main line, and take a 1.5U alt line play on 40/60.  This could absolutely blow up in my face, but it's also a 9.2U profit on a 3.5U play, with a clear volume increase, known connection & great matchup, and very likely have a pass-heavy gamescript to match.  Gulp, but gotta trust the evals here.
 

SNF/MNF

D'Andre Swift O59.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending - I know, he ran for 18 yards last week - but the NYJ run D is decent, and no Lane Johnson really hurt in-game adjustment wise.   Johnson actually seems better than 50-50 to return, but more importantly, with the MIA DL, it's definitely run-vulnerable.   No problem taking this line, and even will consider alt line goodness if it stays around this number.  

Just when I was going to hammer Zay Flowers & Terry Mclaurin props this week - the wind specter shows up with 20+ MPH forecasted for WAS@NYG, BUF@NE & DET@BAL.  Sigh.  Anyways, that's 32.5U in 10 player props for now (likely will take the Rhamondre 70+ rush yd  prop once it's out), there's one guy I'm really interested in the ARI-SEA game but his player prop isn't out yet, likely to take 2-3U more if I can.  I've also done my 2nd 0.4U free bet with Rhamondre O43.5 / Pitts O32.5 / Walker O71.5 / Parham O14.5 / Rice O36.5 / A-Jones O51.5 / C-Watson O52.5 for +7000 YOLO lol.    

...

LONGSHOT TD 

EARLY 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Kyle Pitts +440 / +5000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U - I know the TAM D has been really tough on TE's.  But Pitts has played them before 2 years ago and thrived.   He's just too good of a player to be at those #'s.   Worth the 1U play.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dynami Brown +1600 / +20000 2+ DK & Cole Turner +1600 / +17000 2+ DK  both 0.4U / 0.1U each - I know NYG played WAS tough - but I think the WAS run D and pass rush, 2 areas that BUF D isn't great at, are going to massacre NYG.   And in that scenario, I can see the backups getting more time - and we see both Turner & Brown get in RZ packages (at diff times, usually).   We've seen both get targets near or in the EZ, so it's just worth it in a smash matchup spot to take a half-stake play each. 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Jameson Williams +700 FD / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - his snap share & targets are slowly rising, but he's not at a full starter spot yet - so he only gets a half-stake play.   But he's also their 2nd best WR right now talent wise, and on DK he's +350 and +500 on Bodog, so have to take this value.  EDIT SAT PM - increasing to 0.8U / 0.2U with news that Marvin Jones is out.

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Drew Ogletree +900 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - Kylen Granson is out, so that makes Ogletree the top TE.   It's the CLE D, so that means it can only be a half-stake play, but as other books have him at +450-500, too much value not to take a shot, especially on TE weekend lol.

LATE 

Donald Parham +450 / +7000 2+ Bodog 1.2U / 0.3U - I'm going to take the 0.8U +450 ATTD play and +7000 2+ 0.3U on Bodog right now, as I think this is the best I'll see - but I'll keep 0.4U in case DK offers a 50 percent 0.5U max bet boost - and add to the +390 line DK is offering.   I'd love to get +535 for 1TD, but have to wait to see if I'm offered a 50% Sunday boost.  

Justyn Ross +1100 / +12000 2+ TD DK 0.4U / 0.1U (FRI AM:  Now +750 wow) - hasn't panned out in the 3 games I've played it, but Justin Watson is now out, and that's the position that Ross takes over.   So I do see more chances here.  As Rashee Rice is +250 or less, this is the easier longshot play.   Fingers crossed it hits, these are the best odds yet (which is kinda crazy, given that his role is likely only increasing now with Watson out and everyone else besides Rice in the WR room struggling).

NEW ADDED FRI AM Colby Parkinson +700 FD / +7000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - you know the drill, Parkinson is getting a regular EZ look or 2 a game, so have to keep playing at these crazy #'s.  Geno Smith's inability to see the open guy hopefully gets easier vs. the Cards porous pass coverage. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM Trey McBride +900 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - on the flip side, McBride is taking over from Zach Ertz - so this Bodog (Bovada) line is INSANE, when you consider how vulnerable the SEA pass D is to TE's.   

...

SNF/MNF

Ray-Ray Mcleod +800 DK / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U/0.1U - with news Deebo Samuel is out, pretty easy addition.   Books dropped Ronnie Bell down to +250 range, but it's Ray-Ray who takes Deebo's spot (and played over 70+ percent of last week's snaps when Deebo was hurt).

...

So that's 5U in ATS/ML plays, 32.5U in 11 player props , and 7.5U in 9 TD plays, so that's a whopping 45U committed for SUN.   NGL, that's a really scary amount to put on Sunday, but I do love the GB-DEN, LAC-KC, SEA-ARI & ATL-TAM games for the props I'm on as the matchups / volume for the #'s are so juicy - and Rhamondre's NE run game matchup vs. BUF's depleted run D screams to take it.   Gotta trust the evals, and hope injuries don't cripple gamescript like it did in Week 6.  BOL!

WEEK 7 TO TNF

ATS/ML: 9-14-1, -3.1U (WK 7 TNF - 1-0, +2.6U)

PLAYER PROPS: 44-46, +18.0U (WK 7 TNF, 2-2 +3.4U)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-85, -7.4U (WK 7 TNF - 1-4, -1.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +7.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 TNF - 4.5U; 369U stake so far)

Edited October 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

11 hours ago, adamq said:

Any thoughts on the Fanduel promo?

 

Kamara over 2.5 receptions/ETN over 39.5 rushing yards boosted to +100

 

I dont know how this one fails, but they seemingly always do. Last week they had one, Pollard/Ekeler to combine for 100 rush yards.. I just laughed because FD was gonna do it again, and they did. That one was stayed away from, but this Kamara/ETN boost is so tasty

This was the only thing i hit lol

Olave yards didnt come In despite 300 Carr yards smh

Also was on then under that seemed dead at halftime

[Dash]

Couple of big parlays busted because Etienne got 24 receiving yards instead of 25. Another bad beat. 

[stl4life07]

7 minutes ago, Dash said:

Couple of big parlays busted because Etienne got 24 receiving yards instead of 25. Another bad beat. 

Yeah that was rough. I didnt bet any parlays this time. The only thing I bet was the Kamara reception prop which hit. I was looking at the promo on DK on Kamara or Etienne getting an ATTD but chose to pass it up. Not shocked on the first drive Etienne would score right away lol. Then he scored again lol. 

[adamq]

I just finished some very important research for the upcoming holiday and the results may surprise you. 

National TEs Day 2022, only 3 TEs scored a TD -Kittle, Hendershot, Tremble

2021, there were 8 different TEs who scored-  Tonyan, Gesicki, Henry, (the Pats put up 54?! With macorckle? Don't remember that), Pruitt, Uzomah x2, Moreau, Ertz, Alie-Cox.. also I'll give Mike Evans honorary TE status with his 3 TDs that day

 

Now what can this tell us about this week? Absolutely nothing but I managed to waste 20 minutes at work.

 

 

My TE bet of the week..... TYLER HIGBEE +285

Tyler has not scored yet this year, but still is a key cog in this LA offense- he has played anywhere from 89-96% of snaps in every game this season. Pittsburgh has been tough on TEs this year, but they will have their hands full with Kupp, Nacua, and that pesky little Atwell. No Kyren Williams makes me think McVay will put his trust in Stafford in goal to go situations instead of.. Royce freeman?

 

 

Cade Otton +475, also plays almost every single snap, and Atlanta is weak against TEs so far

Edited October 20, 2023 by adamq

[SmittyBacall]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Trust me, I'm happy for all you guys.  NGL, I'm bummed that FD in ON doesn't offer the alt lines for receptions would have been ALL OVER it - but at least you guys with B365 & FD with alt lines knew what to do.  Oh well, there are a lot of times you guys can't get my action on some books, so I'll celebrate a W for everyone:

ATS/ML - 1-0, +2.6U - Doug Pederson gave me heartburn, but it did help the Kirk props, so I'll take it lo.  

PLAYER PROPS - 2-2, +3.4U - Christian Kirk, I love you.  Derek Carr & Pete Carmichael, I absolutely loathe you.   

TD PROPS - I did take the Etienne super boost for +150, but also lost 0.5U on TIm Jones.   Still, the other props went 0-4 for -2.5U - but man, I have to start getting better TD luck.  BOTH Jamal Agnew & Rashad Shaheed had TD's - Agnew stumbled for a walk in TD at the 2, and Shaheed was horribly overthrown by Carr, and couldn't get the 2nd foot in wide open.  So that's -1.5U net.

I'm not going to complain too much about a +4.5U night when Kirk's TD changed everything around.   But the prime time TD misfortune has GOT to turn around soon:

-The 4 TNF TD's that CHI/WAS missed (Dynami Brown at +1200 for TWO of them, too, and Darnell Mooney at +600), Christian Watson horsecollar on MNF, so many Herbert / Parham chances on MNF, and now Agnew & Shaheed both with TD's literally right there.   Not to mention the 2U +1200 miss on Cole Turner (tackled at 1, and 2 more bad throws in EZ).   That's literally 0-for-10+ chances the past 3 weeks.   Oh well, the big plays are getting chances, sooner later they'll hit lol. 

Still, after the absolute carnage that Week 6 visited on pretty much the entire betting community, we can celebrate a community W with Kirk/Kamara/JAX ML as the big plays, and look to Week 7 Sunday slate!

 

I laddered Kamara all the way up to the max offer on B366 - 9 rec +1500. Nailed them all.

Kirk’s ladder also hit up to 75+ (I didn’t go any higher).

I also parlayed Jags ML, Kamara 8 rec, and Kirk 75+ receiving yards, 0.5 units @ +6500. 

All in all, I took home about 60 units last night. Thank you!

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, adamq said:

I just finished some very important research for the upcoming holiday and the results may surprise you. 

National TEs Day 2022, only 3 TEs scored a TD -Kittle, Hendershot, Tremble

2021, there were 8 different TEs who scored-  Tonyan, Gesicki, Henry, (the Pats put up 54?! With macorckle? Don't remember that), Pruitt, Uzomah x2, Moreau, Ertz, Alie-Cox.. also I'll give Mike Evans honorary TE status with his 3 TDs that day

 

Now what can this tell us about this week? Absolutely nothing but I managed to waste 20 minutes at work.

 

 

My TE bet of the week..... TYLER HIGBEE +285

Tyler has not scored yet this year, but still is a key cog in this LA offense- he has played anywhere from 89-96% of snaps in every game this season. Pittsburgh has been tough on TEs this year, but they will have their hands full with Kupp, Nacua, and that pesky little Atwell. No Kyren Williams makes me think McVay will put his trust in Stafford in goal to go situations instead of.. Royce freeman?

 

 

Cade Otton +475, also plays almost every single snap, and Atlanta is weak against TEs so far

I wondered about whether TE day correlated with TD's, lol, but TBH this week it's pure coincidence that I'm on so many.

Having said that, I feel good about Kyle Pitts +450 / +5000 2+, Donald Parham +450 / +7000 2+, Colby Parkinson +600 / +7000 2+ & Trey McBride +900 / +12500 2+.   They should all get big looks near the EZ.    If I'm being honest with myself, Cole Turner (and Dynami Brown) are FOMO plays as they've been so close in the past and do get RZ work, it's more about the insane odds being posted this weekend vs. a D that should give up TD's.   

If either (or both!) scores, I'm just going to call Justyn Ross & Jameson Williams a big move TE this weekend lol.   IND-CLE finally came available, and with Kylen Granson out, and him at +450 to +500 everywhere else, Drew Ogletree +900 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U/0.1U is the final addition to the SUN slate that I see (another TE, YOLO)! 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Broncofan