thebestever6 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Got a 7 leg anaconda banger parlay . Nicco Colllins over 75 yards receiving justin fields over 100 yards rushing ceedee lamb over 100 yards receiving Jerry jeudy 100 yards receiving Austin Eckler Td DTR 25 yards rushing Aiden O'Connell 2 passing tds $5 dollars pays out $67,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 9:50 AM, stl4life07 said: I FINALLY got my account verified on ESPN Bet. They told me that I needed to take pictures of my ID and a selfie. I wouldve never known had I not once again hit up chat support. Once I did I instantly got my account open. I deposited $10 placed my first bet which was an NBA bet and instantly got the (4) $50 bonus bets into my account to use. So Im excited about that. I had to do the same, was nbd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Whelp the NFL giveth and taketh away. I had a TD parlay with Montgomery, CMC, and Walker. It was bleak Montgomery to score but he did at the end. CMC got his TD very easy. Then Walker gets hurt on the first possession of the game and is doubtful to return. My parlay is ruined AGAIN smh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Baker +4500 live Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Cashed Texans ML-Cardinals +14.5-Both team to score a 1H TD and Stroud 225 pass yards at +300, boosted on MGM to +450 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 (edited) WEEK 11 SNF ATS / ML MIN +120 - covered before PLAYER PROPS Ty Chandler o10.5 Rec yds 2U & 25+ Rec yds +260 1U DK - DEN vulnerable to the RB pass and I’ll hedge on Mattison re-injury with the 3rd down back. Jerry Jeudy o41.5 Rec yds 2U FD & 70+ Rec yds +320 1U DK - Min plays less press man which Russ struggles against. Jeudy been decent against zone this year. MIN presents a much tougher run D than BUF did, so I expect they'll need to throw (and hopefully this time when Jeudy beats his guy, Russ doesn't underthrow his guy by 6 yards and get a DPI instead of a walk in TD). LONGSHOT TD Johnny Mundt +1800 FD (+1500 DK) / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - from before. Brandon Powell +700 / +9500 FD 0.4U / 0.1U - 3rd WR I prefer him at this number over Osborn / etc at sub-300. So that's 1U in ATS/ML, 6U in player props and 1U in 2 longhot TD's for a 8U stake. That’s it for SNF let’s finish Week 11 Sunday strong! Edited November 20, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 (edited) On 11/16/2023 at 12:24 AM, Broncofan said: OK the SUN slate has opened up early, and I have quite a number of plays, so let's get this going... WEEK 11 SUNDAY ATS/ML EARLY LAC / GB O44 - GB has reverted back to throwing it deep, and Justin Herbert is back to his great self...but there's no LAC D. Drives stalling and failed 4th downs are how this fails, but otherwise I think this is a 28-24 type game. LATE NYJ +7 @ BUF - I don't think Jets will win...but they always find a way to keep it close vs. BUF since Robert Saleh took over. I whiffed on NYJ ML on Monday, but as the spread is 7, it adheres to the rule of ATS with dogs of more than 6 pts. SNF MIN +120 ML @ DEN - DEN & MIN are both on a roll, but IMO MIN's is more sustainable - great OL, great receiving corps, mobile QB (TO prone plays and accuracy are his issues), great DC turning D into a top unit, while Sean Payton is scheming to limit Russell Wilson's flaws masterfully, great run game but inconsistent O & D that still can't stop the run well, or RB/TE's in the pass game. TO's can swing this DEN's way (given Josh Dobbs is that volatile), but in a TO-neutral game, IMO DC Brian Flores can neutralize the DEN O better than our D can stymie the MIN pass O game. MNF PHI +130 ML @ KC - KC's D is great, Mahomes is great. Kelce might be rejuvenated from his trip with the Swifties, but he's been easier to control of late. Here's the thing - PHI's OL is such a great neutralizer to stifle other D's, and the PHI DL is exactly what gives Mahomes fits. PHI's biggest weakness (secondary) gets mitigated by both the pressure the DL generates, but by KC's meh WR corps. Truly 2 of the top 4 teams facing off - but I'll go with the plus money on what I always see is a pick 'em game at best. So that's 3U in Sunday plays. PLAYER PROPS EARLY Trey McBride O51.5 rec yds 2U FD (FRI AM - now 54.5 on DK), 80+ rec yds +250, 100+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK (and B365/FD US bettors - go with the 6-7-8 ladder) - well, that was an awesome week 10, but books have finally caught on - just not enough IMO. McBride is an alpha TE - but even with the low 50's #, it's too low vs. a HOU D that is bottom 6 vs. the TE. In a game where ARI is likely playing catch up, the full alt lines up to 100+ are in order. B365/US FD bettors, you know what to do with the alt lines for catches. Calvin Ridley O48.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +300 1U, 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK - TEN is giving up massive #"s to WR's again, and it's the X receivers who are eating, and eating down the field. That's Ridley, and at these #'s, I know he's disappointed (but I did call when to take Ridley and when to take Kirk the last 4 weeks <Ridley vs PIT, Kirk for the other 3>, but this is the matchup he should get a ton of volume and chunk plays. Chigozam Okonkwo O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +320 1U DK - Those who have followed me know I targeted this play after TNF 2 weeks ago with Will Levis, and avoided him last week (vs a top 5 TE D in BAL). JAX is a bottom 5 TE D, and if you give him the 6 targets he got last week, I think 50+ is very much in play. Dorian Thompson-Robinson O18.5 rush yds (now 19.5) 2U, 40+ rush yds +400 1U DK - yes, this is a pure gut play. Yes, he stunk up the joint against the BAL D, and PIT D is formidable. But I do know one area where DTR excels - it's his insane mobility and ability to make ppl miss. At those #'s, it could only take 3-4 rushes to hit the alt line. It's iffier because there's no reg season basis, but the preseason showed he is amazing on the ground, and the main prop & alt line is too juicy to pass up. Luke Musgrave O28.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +300, 70+ rec yds +750 0.5U DK - LAC struggles against the TE and the seam pattern in particular, where Musgrave has thrived. It's a little scary because Musgrave "only" gets 4-5 targets a game, but he's also hit 25+ yard plays in the last 2 weeks, LAC is another bottom 5 TE D, so it might only take 1 to hit the main line, and 3-4 to get the 1st alt line. Jahmyr Gibbs O21.5 rec yds 2U (FRI AM - now 24.5), 40+ rec yds +280 1U DK - CHI's got a top 3 run D, but they literally give up the MOST rec yds to RB's before last TNF - so this is a much easier target to attack. You might only need 1 play to get the main line. Still, as Gibbs has yet to crack 40+ (mid 30's last 2 weeks), I'm sticking to the 1-alt line here. Jakobi Meyers O37.5 rec yds, 60+ rec yds +270 1U, 80+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK - NGL this is iffier than in past weeks - because we don't really know how much Aidan O'Connell will target Meyers. Last week doesn't tell us as much because the G-men were a cake walk on the other side. Here, facing a MIA O that's likely to put 30+ pts, LV will have to open it up, and this number is just too low to pass up, along with 60/80 alt lines. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Saquon Barkley O17.5 Rec yds (now 18.5) 2U, 40+ Rec yds +340 & 60+ Rec yds +1100 0.5U DK - yes Tommy Devito is scary as QB. But the WAS D gives up 50+ yards to RB’s in the last 5 games. Gotta take the full alt line given Saquon’s usage and home run threat. LATE Mike Evans O55.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +260, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - I don't even need to justify this, it's a weekly play until Evans stops putting up 80-100+ rec yds almost every week. ESP since the SF ILB's do a great job of limiting the short stuff, I don't want the TAM RB's, and so it's easy to just take Evans, and pair him with... Brandon Aiyuk O64.5 rec yds 2U (FRI AM: now 67.5), 90+ rec yds +225, 120+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK - this is one of the few plays that didn't hit last week, but that was a function of SF blowing out JAX, and being able to lean on the run. This week, the TAM D is such a pass funnel D, and again very vulnerable to X receivers and chunk plays - and that's Aiyuk. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Christian McCaffrey O30.5 rec yds (FRI AM - now 31.5) 2U, 50+ rec yds 1U +250, 70+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK - same deal as with JAX, TAM is a tougher run D but leaky to the pass game, that's a CMC alt line prop for rec yds. Breece Hall O54.5 rush yds 2U DK (FRI AM: now 56.5), 80+ rush yds +250, 100+ rush yds +600 0.5U DK - I'm not going to repeat a 7U play (and go poof) like 2 weeks ago, but the BUF D is incredibly vulnerable to both the RB running game and pass game - and with Michael Carter cut, that can only mean more Hall (rookie Ibanikanda is a good story, but pass pro matters, so I think he gets ramped up, and the extra work goes mostly to Hall, with a little Cook). SNF Nothing yet MNF De'Andre Swift O16.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +380 1U - no Dallas Goedert, that means more work for the RB's and Devonta Smith. Against the KC D, that keeps everything in front of them, it's super easy to take Swift at that number, and the tasty 40+ yard prop play as well. So that's 40.5U in 12 player props for Sunday. As always, I also was given 2 free 0.2U free bet credit plays on DK (but damn, they dropped it from 0.4U to 0.2U lol), so I put a *YOLO 9-leg +26000 player prop parley* with DTR o19.5 rush yds / J-Gibbs O24.5 rec yds / J-Myers O37.5 rec yds / T-Mcbride O53.5 rec yds / C-Okonkwo O27.5 rec yds / S-Barkley O17.5 rec yds / B-Hall O55.5 rush yds / CMC O31.5 rec yds / D-Swift O18.5 rec yds (so I can hedge Swift if I'm 8-8 lol). I also played *0.2U for Calvin Ridley most SUN receiving yds at +8000* for my 2nd free bet credit bet. LONGSHOT TD EARLY Kyle Phillips +700 FD (+600 DK) / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - Phillips still doesn't get as many snaps as you'd like to see to go full-stake, but for the matchup / role he's got, this is too good to pass up. Chigozam Okonkwo +550 DK/FD / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - Chig, on the other hand, gets pretty much a full-time role now, and his matchup with JAX's D means I have to take the full-stake play here. Cedrick Wilson +600 / +9500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - My eyes popped when I saw this, as Wilson is the clear 3rd WR and gets over 80+ percent snaps now, and Tua has showed great chemistry with him. I get that MIA might run the Raiders out of the stadium, but even in a blowout, Wilson is the guy who's going to get more PT as they rest Tyreek & Waddle. So I have to take the full-stake play. Donald Parham +450 / +5500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - Nothing new here, they offer +400 / +5000 2+ or better, I'll take the full stake play unless it's a great TE D...and GB isn't. Dontavion Wicks +650 / +8000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - On the flip side, Wicks gets about half the snaps, but he has an equal target share to the 2nd/3rd guys (Doubs & J-Reed). Last week Reed paid off at +600, here it's Wicks who gets the big odds boost, so I'll go here vs. the porous LAC D. With GB resuming the intermediate-deep throws again, it makes Wicks a nice play. Michael Carter +1400 FD / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U- the books think Carter is the 3rd RB with Demercado out....they think Keontay Ingram is the backup. He might be, but IMO Carter is by far the more talented back. And as he's a great pass catcher, he offers huge potential for 3rd down or 2 minute drill / garbage time work. If I'm right, next week he'll be +400 or less and the value is gone. The uncertainty is why I can only go half-stake here. Lawrence Cager +1600 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - it figures Cager scores against DAL, and I hate chasing last week's results - but WAS is literally the worst TE D this year, and they've given up 5 TD's already. Still, I wasn't looking to play this - until these odds were posted. Have to take the half-stake play given how bad WAS TE D is. NEW ADDED SAT PM - Tommy Tremble +850 TheScore (+700 FD) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U & Stephen Sullivan +1600 FD / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - with news Hayden Hurst is out, and the D's single weak area being TE's, worth the half-stake play to cover the 2 guys who soak up all the TE work. NEW ADDED SAT PM Greg Dortch +900 TheScore (+750 DK) / +15000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U* - both Michael Wilson & Zach Pascal are out for ARI so Dortch is the WR3 and returns punts. Also had chemistry with Kyler Murray last year. Worth the half-stake play. LATE Trey Palmer +800 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - I am shocked at this number, given that like Cedrick Wilson, Palmer gets a full-time set of snaps, and a clear 3rd in WR targets. Against a vulnerable SF secondary, at that number it's worth the half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Colby Parkinson +700 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - the Rams have given up the 2nd most TD's with, so have to go back to the well with Parkinson here. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tyler Conklin +500 FD/Bodog / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - nothing new here, one of the main RZ targets the Jets have SNF Johnny Mundt +1800 FD (+1500 DK) / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - DEN is terrible against the TE, which sets up well for TJ Hockenson. But he's grinding out multiple rib injuries, and a foot injury (wearing a plate). He's one tough SOB. But that also means that Mundt gets on the field about 25 percent of the time, and he's a better pass catcher than Josh Oliver. So it's worth the half-stake play. If Hock has to sit out plays, Mundt's the pass catcher. And if it's 12 personnel with a pass option, I'm banking on Mundt to be the pass-catching TE. MNF NEW ADDED FRI PM - Noah Gray +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - PHI is a bottom 3 TE D, and so it sets up well for Kelce, but at those odds and KC's love of 12 formation in the RZ and heavy usage of Gray an easy half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Julio Jones +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - with Dallas Goedert out, it's not the TE's who saw more work, but the WR's and RB's. So I have to add the biggest body at that price for a half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Albert Okwuegbunam +1400 / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - having said the above, the one guy who wasn't around last year is Albert O. I don't even know if he'll be active - but if he plays, it won't be to block. Given that, an easy half-unit play for Albert O. If he's inactive, it voids. I'll have some player props for SNF/MNF, but all books are pretty much out, so I think that's the TD slate for Week 11. I've already got 40.5U in 12 player props, 8.5U in 13 TD player props, and the 3U in ATS/ML, so that's 52U already committed to Sunday's slate (GULP). More than enough for now - BOL! WEEK 11 to TNF (PENDING ANDREWS BOOK DECISION) ATS/ML: 20-22-2, -1.1U (WK 11 TNF: 0-1, -1U) PLAYER PROPS: 85-78, +91.4U (WK 11 TNF: 0-2, -8.5U <damn Mark Andrews 2/23 in first 3 mins then out sigh>) LONGSHOT TD: 18-143 - -23.0U (Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750) TOTAL - +67.3U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - -7.1U; 667U stake so far) Well, that was *this* close from being a really good day, but as it is, I'm treading water: ATS/ML - 0-2, -2U - the LAC-GB O44 was totally snakebitten - 2 missed FG's and a missed XP, and a sure FG-position drop by Quentin Johnston on the last drive. 43 points. OUCH. NYJ +7 was just a bad, bad call. PLAYER PROPS - 5-6, +6.7U - Chig Okonkwo was a terrible call - he was out there for less than 70 percent of snaps. Mike Evans & Breece Hall rush yds were bad calls, Hall because I thought NYJ was going to keep it close. Had I gone rec yds, would have hit main + alt; that's on me. Those 3 were just bad calls, straight up. The other 3 were really bad luck events, I'd still back the original calls - Luke Musgrave was REALLY unfortunate, though - not only did he fall 0.5 yds short, but Jordan love missed on a wide open wheel route with a 20-yard throw that likely was good for 30+, if not 40+ - would have been a main & 1st alt-line hit, if not both. Same with Kyler Murray missing Trey McBride wide open, and CMC got 25 yards, but 5 catches....plus Saquon Barkley finished at 5-57 after literally being at 52 yards after 1st drive of 3Q, for a +1100 2nd alt line 0.5U. Still, even though I went 5-6, I still go +6.7U thanks to alt line goodness with Aiyuk & Ridley & Gibbs. LONGSHOT TD - 1-11 (Michael Carter voids), -3.3U - Donald Parham gets tackled at the 2, Dontavian Wicks gets tackled by last guy 2x, and Greg Dortch had a ton of touches and opps. But reality was the TEN calls, Lawrence Cager, Cedrick Wilson & the 3 late slate plays didn't really get any great looks. I'll take the Tommy Tremble TD, and look for better calls tonight & tomorrow. So heading into SNF, it's a +1.4U day (and a -5.7U week) - LOL. It could have been better, but the Tremble TD and DTR rush props with 20 yards at O18.5 was fortunate too. On to SNF! Edited November 20, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Broncofan said: Well, that was *this* close from being a really good day, but as it is, I'm treading water: ATS/ML - 0-2, -2U - the LAC-GB O44 was totally snakebitten - 2 missed FG's and a missed XP, and a sure FG-position drop by Quentin Johnston on the last drive. 43 points. OUCH. NYJ +7 was just a bad, bad call. PLAYER PROPS - 5-6, +6.7U - Chig Okonkwo was a terrible call - he was out there for less than 70 percent of snaps. Mike Evans & Breece Hall rush yds were bad calls, Hall because I thought NYJ was going to keep it close. Had I gone rec yds, would have hit main + alt; that's on me. Those 3 were just bad calls, straight up. The other 3 were really bad luck events, I'd still back the original calls - Luke Musgrave was REALLY unfortunate, though - not only did he fall 0.5 yds short, but Jordan love missed on a wide open wheel route with a 20-yard throw that likely was good for 30+, if not 40+ - would have been a main & 1st alt-line hit, if not both. Same with Kyler Murray missing Trey McBride wide open, and CMC got 25 yards, but 5 catches....plus Saquon Barkley finished at 5-57 after literally being at 52 yards after 1st drive of 3Q, for a +1100 2nd alt line 0.5U. Still, even though I went 5-6, I still go +6.7U thanks to alt line goodness with Aiyuk & Ridley & Gibbs. LONGSHOT TD - 1-11 (Michael Carter voids), -3.3U - Donald Parham gets tackled at the 2, Dontavian Wicks gets tackled by last guy 2x, and Greg Dortch had a ton of touches and opps. But reality was the TEN calls, Lawrence Cager, Cedrick Wilson & the 3 late slate plays didn't really get any great looks. I'll take the Tommy Tremble TD, and look for better calls tonight & tomorrow. So heading into SNF, it's a +1.4U day (and a -5.7U week) - LOL. It could have been better, but the Tremble TD and DTR rush props with 20 yards at O18.5 was fortunate too. On to SNF! SNF goes 2-0 on the props (and Chandler alt line as well) 0-1 ATS, and 0-2 TD props (wrong backup TE scored lol). So that creates a +3.6U SNF and a +5.0U Sunday (and -2.1U Week 11 with MNF to go). WEEK 11 SUN RECAP ATS - 0-3, -3U (damn lol) PLAYER PROPS - 7-6, +12.3U LONGSHOT TD - 2-14, -4.3U WEEK 11 SUN: +5.0U WEEK 11 TOTAL: -2.1U (ugh -7.1U TNF Mark Andrews & Ja'marr Chase props getting killed by injuries) WEEK 11 SUMMARY ATS/ML: 20-25-2, -4.1U (WK 11 SNF: 0-4, -4U) PLAYER PROPS: 92-84, +103.7U (WK 11 SNF: 7-8, +3.8U) LONGSHOT TD: 19-159 - -27.3U (WK 11 SNF; 2-16, -1.9U; 12 Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850) TOTAL - +72.3U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - -2.1U; 727U stake so far) Edited November 20, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 (edited) WEEK 11 MNF ATS/ML PHI ML +130 - covered before. PLAYER PROPS De'Andre Swift O16.5 rec yds 2U (now 18.5), 40+ rec yds +380 1U DK - covered before; I should point out that since Nick Bolton got injured, KC has given up 5 catches and 40+ combined rec yds to RB's in the 2 games he's been out, which belies their top 10 status in pass D's vs. RB's. Devonta Smith O55.5 rec yds 2U (60.5 on FD wow), 74+ rec yds +210 1U, 95+ recs yds +500 0.5U DK (weird) - with no Dallas Goedert, besides RB, the other beneficiary is Smith. He's had success with KC before, going 100+ yards in both 2021 & the Super Bowl. At this number, I have to take. The DK alt lines now offer X alt lines, and regular alt lines, but with weird targets this time - 74 & 95+ instead of 70-80-90-100-etc. Weird, but better value than FD (and I'm sure B365 is better as always lol). Rashee Rice O43.5 rec yds 2U (48.5 on FD wow again), 60+ rec yds +210 1U, 79+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (weird) - PHI absolutely struggles in the slot right now, they've been trying a bunch of ppl, but no one is stepping up, so that leaves Rice as the main beneficiary, as he spends over 50 percent of his time there. The FD lines point to value already, so worth the full alt line (weird that's it's 60+ & 79+ instead of 60/80 but whatever lol). So that's 10U in player props. LONGSHOT TD NEW ADDED FRI PM - Noah Gray +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - PHI is a bottom 3 TE D, and so it sets up well for Kelce, but at those odds and KC's love of 12 formation in the RZ and heavy usage of Gray an easy half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Julio Jones +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - with Dallas Goedert out, it's not the TE's who saw more work, but the WR's and RB's. So I have to add the biggest body at that price for a half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Albert Okwuegbunam +1400 / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - having said the above, the one guy who wasn't around last year is Albert O. I don't even know if he'll be active - but if he plays, it won't be to block. Given that, an easy half-unit play for Albert O. If he's inactive, it voids. I don't even know if Albert O will be active, but I'll play it at that number for sure - 12U on the slate, +/- Albert O. Let's look to finish Week 11 strong with a great MNF! Edited November 20, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 (edited) So Devonta Smith rec yds has gone from 55.5 to 57.5 yds on DK, and he's 60.5 on FD (wow). D'Andre Swift has gone from 16.5 rec yds to 18.5 (he's 17.5 on FD). Rashee Rice remains unchanged at 43.5 on DK, but he's 46.5 on FD (wow again). I definitely want to attack the PHI pass D more, so I'm going with their 32nd vs. TE status and going with Noah Gray O12.5 rec yds 2U on DK (14.5 on FD). I'm sad they don't have a 25+ alt line, it would definitely be worth taking. For B365 bettors, Rashee Rice O4.5 +130 & 6-7 catch ladders are intriguing, as is Noah Gray O1.5 catches, and the 3-4 catch ladder. Given how good KC's pass D is, I wouldn't attack the catch ladders for either Eagle. BOL! Edited November 20, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Got killed on TNF, had an amazing sunday wave of games, and got killed on SNF. Was big on the Broncos -2 which hurts. Still in the green but need to do some work tonight. Like the props @Broncofan posted, but I'm really split on the matchup. I'd favor KC at home too but a lot of the sharps I follow are on PHI ML. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 BTW it's not without risk, but there's another NBA leverage opp for the value offered - HOU is going in as a 8-pt dog to GS (and I gotta admit I'm tempted to take the +280 ML), but the Warriors will again be without Draymond Green. No matter how you feel about him, the GS D doesn't work without him. In particular - GS gives up 22 PPG to SG's, and 25 PPG to C's - and that lines up with Jalen Green O19.5 2U / 25+ +320 / 30+ +1000 0.5U FD & Alpero Senguin O19.5 2U / 25+ +320 / 30+ +1000 0.5U FD. Senguin in particular has a ton of usage in the PNR with both Green and VanVleet, so it's too good to pass up. Yes, it's scary to go 7U, but I figure at least 1, if not both are good for 20+, and it only needs 1 guy to get 25+ to pay off, and either gets 30+, it's a great day. BOL! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) On 11/20/2023 at 12:20 AM, Broncofan said: SNF goes 2-0 on the props (and Chandler alt line as well) 0-1 ATS, and 0-2 TD props (wrong backup TE scored lol). So that creates a +3.6U SNF and a +5.0U Sunday (and -2.1U Week 11 with MNF to go). WEEK 11 SUN RECAP ATS - 0-3, -3U (damn lol) PLAYER PROPS - 7-6, +12.3U LONGSHOT TD - 2-14, -4.3U WEEK 11 SUN: +5.0U WEEK 11 TOTAL: -2.1U (ugh -7.1U TNF Mark Andrews & Ja'marr Chase props getting killed by injuries) WEEK 11 SUMMARY ATS/ML: 20-25-2, -4.1U (WK 11 SNF: 0-4, -4U) PLAYER PROPS: 92-84, +103.7U (WK 11 SNF: 7-8, +3.8U) LONGSHOT TD: 19-159 - -27.3U (WK 11 SNF; 2-16, -1.9U; 12 Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850) TOTAL - +72.3U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - -2.1U; 727U stake so far) On 11/20/2023 at 1:38 AM, Broncofan said: WEEK 11 MNF ATS/ML PHI ML +130 - covered before. PLAYER PROPS De'Andre Swift O16.5 rec yds 2U (now 18.5), 40+ rec yds +380 1U DK - covered before; I should point out that since Nick Bolton got injured, KC has given up 5 catches and 40+ combined rec yds to RB's in the 2 games he's been out, which belies their top 10 status in pass D's vs. RB's. Devonta Smith O55.5 rec yds 2U (60.5 on FD wow), 74+ rec yds +210 1U, 95+ recs yds +500 0.5U DK (weird) - with no Dallas Goedert, besides RB, the other beneficiary is Smith. He's had success with KC before, going 100+ yards in both 2021 & the Super Bowl. At this number, I have to take. The DK alt lines now offer X alt lines, and regular alt lines, but with weird targets this time - 74 & 95+ instead of 70-80-90-100-etc. Weird, but better value than FD (and I'm sure B365 is better as always lol). Rashee Rice O43.5 rec yds 2U (48.5 on FD wow again), 60+ rec yds +210 1U, 79+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (weird) - PHI absolutely struggles in the slot right now, they've been trying a bunch of ppl, but no one is stepping up, so that leaves Rice as the main beneficiary, as he spends over 50 percent of his time there. The FD lines point to value already, so worth the full alt line (weird that's it's 60+ & 79+ instead of 60/80 but whatever lol). So that's 10U in player props. LONGSHOT TD NEW ADDED FRI PM - Noah Gray +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - PHI is a bottom 3 TE D, and so it sets up well for Kelce, but at those odds and KC's love of 12 formation in the RZ and heavy usage of Gray an easy half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Julio Jones +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - with Dallas Goedert out, it's not the TE's who saw more work, but the WR's and RB's. So I have to add the biggest body at that price for a half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Albert Okwuegbunam +1400 / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - having said the above, the one guy who wasn't around last year is Albert O. I don't even know if he'll be active - but if he plays, it won't be to block. Given that, an easy half-unit play for Albert O. If he's inactive, it voids. I don't even know if Albert O will be active, but I'll play it at that number for sure - 12U on the slate, +/- Albert O. Let's look to finish Week 11 strong with a great MNF! 16 hours ago, Broncofan said: So Devonta Smith rec yds has gone from 55.5 to 57.5 yds on DK, and he's 60.5 on FD (wow). D'Andre Swift has gone from 16.5 rec yds to 18.5 (he's 17.5 on FD). Rashee Rice remains unchanged at 43.5 on DK, but he's 46.5 on FD (wow again). I definitely want to attack the PHI pass D more, so I'm going with their 32nd vs. TE status and going with Noah Gray O12.5 rec yds 2U on DK (14.5 on FD). I'm sad they don't have a 25+ alt line, it would definitely be worth taking. For B365 bettors, Rashee Rice O4.5 +130 & 6-7 catch ladders are intriguing, as is Noah Gray O1.5 catches, and the 3-4 catch ladder. Given how good KC's pass D is, I wouldn't attack the catch ladders for either Eagle. BOL! Well, I won't complain as it looked for 3Q like I was going 0-4 in player props, 0-1 ATS and 0-2 on TD props (Albert O active but zero snaps, so I believe it will void). But then the 4Q finally happened, and it turned around in a big way - PHI ML +130 cashes for +1.3U, D'Andre Swift main line hits (why they didn't go there earlier is beyond belief), and Devonta Smith gets all lines at 99 yards for +6.6U. Rashee Rice barely misses the main line and KC going 11 personnel was a surprise, but it kills Noah Gray. No real TD opps for either Julio or Gray, and Albert O bet voids with 0 snaps. So that's a +2.4U night, which TBH I'll gladly take, which puts Week 11 into +0.3U overall - I'll take it after that TNF disaster lol. On to Week 12! WEEK 11 SUMMARY ATS/ML: 21-25-2, -2.8U (WK 11 SNF: 1-4, -2.7U) PLAYER PROPS: 94-86, +105.8U (WK 11 SNF: 7-8, +5.9U) LONGSHOT TD: 19-161 - -28.3U (WK 11; 2-18, -2.9U; 12 Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850) TOTAL - +74.7U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; 739U stake so far) Edited November 21, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 6 hours ago, Broncofan said: BTW it's not without risk, but there's another NBA leverage opp for the value offered - HOU is going in as a 8-pt dog to GS (and I gotta admit I'm tempted to take the +280 ML), but the Warriors will again be without Draymond Green. No matter how you feel about him, the GS D doesn't work without him. In particular - GS gives up 22 PPG to SG's, and 25 PPG to C's - and that lines up with Jalen Green O19.5 2U / 25+ +320 / 30+ +1000 0.5U FD & Alpero Senguin O19.5 2U / 25+ +320 / 30+ +1000 0.5U FD. Senguin in particular has a ton of usage in the PNR with both Green and VanVleet, so it's too good to pass up. Yes, it's scary to go 7U, but I figure at least 1, if not both are good for 20+, and it only needs 1 guy to get 25+ to pay off, and either gets 30+, it's a great day. BOL! Jalen Green was a case of absolute robbery - he had 16 pts after 3Q, and then the Rockets sat him the entire 4Q since it was back-to-backs.... easy main line cash robbed! But the flip side - after missing his last 3 FT's, Sengun hit 30 on the last garbage possession (as point differential matters for the play in tourney) to hit 30+ +1000 0.5U so that's a +5.5U swing. Makes up for the -4U main line lost with Green, and gives me a +6.7U hit on Hoops tonight. With the +1U on Green & Harden last Friday, a nice little hoops run (I'm not a hoops guy, so don't count on this, just enjoy it lol). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Jalen Green was a case of absolute robbery - he had 16 pts after 3Q, and then the Rockets sat him the entire 4Q since it was back-to-backs.... easy main line cash robbed! But the flip side - after missing his last 3 FT's, Sengun hit 30 on the last garbage possession (as point differential matters for the play in tourney) to hit 30+ +1000 0.5U so that's a +5.5U swing. Makes up for the -4U main line lost with Green, and gives me a +6.7U hit on Hoops tonight. With the +1U on Green & Harden last Friday, a nice little hoops run (I'm not a hoops guy, so don't count on this, just enjoy it lol). you nailed it thanks . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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