Broncofan Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 hour ago, adamq said: Tailing quite a few of your guys' plays, only thing I have to add is George Pickens alt yards. Up to 80+ is +400 on DK. I think he will be featured more today and the offense will continue to improve under not Matt Canada The issue is PIT can beat ARI so many ways. Running it or throwing. With Minkah Fitzpatrick the PIT pass D improves significantly. And while they are all playing Hollywood Brown & Trey McBride aren’t close to healthy. So while PIT could go nuts they need ARI to stay close. When Minkah was out and no one on ARI was hurting I saw that path. Not as confident so easier to just stay away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Carolina ML and AZ + 6.5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Also HOU -3 and NYJ ML Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojan Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 (edited) I have 4 DK lineups on the day QB Sam Howell RB Javonte Williams RB Zach Moss WR Tyreek Hill WR Terry McLaurin WR Curtis Samuel TE Sam LaPorta FLEX Rachaad White DST Patriots QB Sam Howell RB Javonte Williams RB Zach Moss WR Tyreek Hill WR Marquise Brown WR Terry McLaurin TE Jawan Johnson FLEX Rachaad White DST Jets QB Derek Carr RB Rhamondre Stevenson RB Zach Moss WR Tyreek Hill WR Michael Pittman WR Chris Olave TE Jawan Johnson FLEX Jonathan Mingo DST Jets QB Jared Goff RB Javonte Williams RB Zach Moss WR Amon Ra St Brown WR Marquise Brown WR Curtis Samuel TE Sam LaPorta FLEX Rachaad White DST Jets Edited December 3, 2023 by Trojan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wentz you dog you Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 May throw something on these 4 o clock games… I like kupps receptions 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 (edited) SAM HOWELL PPL +800 0.8U TD - +6.4U +12500 0.2U 2-TD - +25U BABBBBBBBBBY! Edited December 3, 2023 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 (edited) OK now I"m taking Brandon Aiyuk O65.5 rec yds The Score 2U, 87+ rec yds +210 1U DK & 109+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK. Jonathan Mingo +600 / +10000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD @ TAM - didn't move but I locked in the 2-TD before, hoping we can keep this up lol. LFG! Edited December 3, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 On 11/28/2023 at 4:01 PM, 11sanchez11 said: az is gonna beat pit this week, take them ags if you want to play it safe Easy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Taking a small stab at Purdy to score +2200.. in the RZ I could see him getting one by the Eagles today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) OK 2 new player props and 2 TD plays for SNF.... WEEK 13 SNF ATS/ML GB +6 - covered before PLAYER PROPS Patrick Mahomes O20.5 rush yds, 32+ rush yds +210 1U, 44+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK @ GB - we know KC's T's are their weak link in pass pro, and Rashan Gary is a problem. What that leads to - are Mahomes rush yds. He's gone 20+ 9 out of 11 games, 30+ 5x, and 40+ 2x. Then you take the GB D, who have faced mobile QB's in only 4 games (Pickett, Herbert, Fields & Ridder) - and other than Pickett (4/16 - but I'm not really sure I'd call him mobile), it's been way past this number (Fields 59 yds, Herbert 70+, Ridder 39) - so I have to take the shot at these odds. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Rashee Rice O44.5 rec yds 2U, 61+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ GB - GB's zone D is what Rashee Rice thrives on. Now that he's at a 80% snap count rate, it's all system go. Need GB to keep up with KC, though, that's the risk. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Christian Watson O40.5 rec yds 2U, 57+ rec yds +210 1U, 75+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 100+ rec yds +1200 0.5U DK (gulp) vs. GB- yes, this could absolutely backfire on me - but KC's pass D is best attacked with vertical / intermediate to deep guys, NOT short-intermediate. And that's Watson. So the 41+ yard prop is just too juicy not to take the 3-alt line play. LONGSHOT TD Jordan Love +700 / +11000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U vs. KC - we covered this before, odds went down to +650 and are now back up, missed the +750 but I'm good with the odds for a full-stake play with only AJ Dillon playing at RB (Patrick Taylor is a pass catcher). Noah Gray +900 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ GB - on the other hand, his odds go up from +800 so I'm glad I waited overall lol. Dontavyian Wicks +700 FD / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. KC - just a hunch, best matchup IMO (non-slot, Watson gets the attention). So that's 14U on SNF - more than enough....hope to keep the MNF/TNF & now Week 13 Sunday roll going! Edited December 4, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 I won one of my ATTD parlays with Henry, Hill, and White. I cashed out the other one (stupidly) with Monty, CMC, and Hurts. I just was like seemingly every single time I bet on Hurts to score a TD he doesnt and I had a bad feeling before the game that he wouldnt and he did smh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) On 11/30/2023 at 12:22 PM, Broncofan said: Well, some early Sun plays are out (and I already hopped on a couple of ATS plays a couple of days ago), and man, there are some out-there lines to take advantage of player-prop & TD prop-wise IMO WEEK 13 SUNDAY SLATE ATS/ML EARLY DET -4 @ NO - NO is missing 2 of their top 3 WR's, and the OC/QB suck. Their D is also missing Lattimore, and they aren't able to stop the run like they used to. Unless Goff pulls a 2+ INT/TO game out of his hat (which is possible), this should be a 2-score DET win. LATE CLE ML +150 @ LAR - yes, the CLE O has problems. But they've still got a great D - the one weakness that DEN mercilessly exploited was the run game. LAR's run is decent, but nowhere near as good. Without complete control in the run game, I don't see the CLE D getting tired. I have zero idea why CLE didn't lean on the run game last week, but I expect they won't repeat the same mistake. On the flip side, Cooper Kupp is hurt again, so I don't see the LAR O being as successful if the Browns only have to have worry about Puka Nacua & Kyren Williams. IMO the wrong team is favored here. LAR's a great story, but give me the dominant D (especially if both Ward & Garrett playing). SF -3 @ PHI - so many things in SF's favor - 3 extra days of rest, PHI playing a gruelling extra 10 mins in OT, and the PHI secondary being so vulnerable to SF's receivers. I took this right away, before the line could move past the critical -3 point. SNF GB +6 vs. KC - there's a real path to this bet looking awful, if Jordan Love's progress is just a mirage (and with LAC/DET pass D, that's a real risk). I just can't give 6 pts to a home team whose D is suddenly finding its way to playing better, vs. a KC O that frankly is pretty limited. Double Kelce in the pass game, live with the rest (even if Rashee Rice goes off, so be it). GB's diversity with their WR corps are why I believe they'll score enough to keep it close. I won't bet the ML against #15, though, but at 6 points, it also justifies going ATS instead of ML. MNF Nothing so far So that's 4U at play so far. PLAYER PROPS The DK X+ and 2nd alt lines are back (weird), so I have some posted, and some waiting. NGL, it's scary because there are 2 plays here that missed (although barely), and 2 more I'm likely adding, but the evals say they're still a go, so diving in... EARLY Bijan Robinson O58.5 rush yds (FD - 60.5, FRI AM - same @ 58.5) 2U, 80+ rush yds +200 1U & 100+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK vs. NYJ - Arthur Smith could absolutely hose me here, by making it more of a split with Allgier. But if he gives 15-18 carries to Bijan, we could get the 100+ yard day vs. NYJ's run D, which is decent, but wears out. Given the obv run funnel D and the gamescript leaning to run-heavy, gotta back this for the full 3.5U alt line play. Jahmyr Gibbs, O43.5 rush yds (FRI AM - Same) 2U, 70+ rush yds +320 1U & 90+ rush yds +800 0.5U DK @ NO - this is simply way too low. Not only is DET's run game still elite, but NO's run D is no longer top 5, or even top 10 - firmly middle of pack. Gibbs is also taking the 60+ percent opp side of the 60/40 split with David Montgomery. I know I'm going as high as 80-90 yards on the alt lines, the Q is how much value the 2nd set offers. Josh Downs O48.5 rec yds FD (50.5 DK FRI AM - now both 51.5) 2U, 70+ rec yds +200 1U & 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ TEN - I know we lost last week with Downs vs. TAM, but that was truly a low-likelihood outcome. Downs had THIRTEEN targets last week.....and he's getting another pass funnel D. In the prior meeting, he went 7-96 vs. TEN, and that was a game in which IND could run the ball because TEN's all-world run stuffer Teair Tart was out - he's not out this week. This is a pass funnel gamescript, so backing Downs for the full 3.5U alt line play. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Devin Singletary O10.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +280 1U, 40+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. DEN - DEN's vulnerability to RB's & TE's is well known - but it looks more & more like Dalton Schultz isn't playing. This is a great opp for Singletary in the pass game, where his usage has increased as he's taken over. Worth the full alt line play. NEW ADDED SAT AM - Brevin Jordan O21.5 rec yds FD (24.5 DK) 2U, 40+ rec yds +225 1U DK & 60+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK vs. DEN - DEN's TE D is the other weakness in coverage along with RB, so with no Schultz and an iffy Noah Brown, this low # is one to attack with only 2 healthy TE's left (Jordan & Eric Saubert). NEW ADDED FRI AM - Jerry Jeudy O46.5 rec yds, 70+ rec yds +260 1U DK @ HOU - against HOU's pass D, both Sutton and Jeudy should get work, but Jeudy's number is 10+ yards lower, so easier to attack this & 1 alt line. Payton's emphasis on the run is why I can't go higher than 70+ though. EDIT FRI PM - Jeudy's battling through a groin issue, the main line's moved, so I can't cash out, but I cashed the alt line with almost no penalty (as the new alt line went down). NEW ADDED FRI PM - Curtis Samuel O35.5 rec yds 2U / 60+ rec yds +300 1U / 80+ rec yds 0.5U DK vs. MIA - Jaelen Phillips out kills the MIA pass rush, and Samuel lines up in the slot or left side - so he avoids Jalen Ramsey. As a Johan Dotson truther, I've come to accept the WAS O focuses on Samuel as the matchup & short-intermediate guy (sigh) - too good of a spot with gamescript & matchup & volume/usage. NEW ADDED SUN AM - Juwan Johnson O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +300 FD 1U - Chris Olave being the only starter left, and DET's pass D, that number is simply too low. The 1st alt line is a bit of a reach, but the opportunity is so good, have to take a shot. LATE Jonathan Mingo O25.5 rec yds 2U FD (28.5 DK lol FRI AM - now both 28.5), 43+ rec yds +200 1U, 60+ rec yds +500 0.5U & 80+ rec yds +1000 DK (gulp) @ TAM - I know, I know, a CAR WR for 3 alt lines? Insanity, right? Well, Mingo is now taking full-time snaps with Adam Thielen, and he's also their co-leader in targets. And it's the TAM pass funnel D, with a gamescript that likely has them trailing. It's downright scary to go 4U on a bad team's WR, but the totals for TAM's D are so damn low. Deebo Samuel O49.5 rec yds (FRI AM: Same) 2U, 65+ rec yds +210 1U & 85+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ PHI - PHI has the extreme pass funnel D, and they're decent vs. RB's, so that means picking the WR & TE's. NGL, I'm sorely tempted to take Aiyuk, Deebo & Kittle all 3 with alt lines....but the forecast is already calling for significant rain again. Now, we saw last week it won't necesarily stop the O's - but it does change the type of pass game used. Deebo is also a guy who thrives on beating zone D's - and that's Sean Desai's scheme to a T (true Fangio disciple). You give me pass-heavy, short-intermediate favored, and zone, and it's a Deebo night. George Kittle O46.5 rec yds (FRI AM - Same) 2U, 63+ rec yds +200 1U & 83 rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ PHI - On the flip side, the other guy who kills it in those types of script is Kittle. There's a risk he's kept in for pass pro on the right side, but I have to believe being so pass-heavy, that Kittle will get his. At those #'s, I'll take the dive. SNF Patrick Mahomes O20.5 rush yds (FRI AM - now 21.5) 2U, 32+ rush yds +210 1U & 44+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK @ GB - we know KC's T's are their weak link in pass pro, and Rashan Gary is a problem. What that leads to - are Mahomes rush yds. He's gone 20+ 9 out of 11 games, 30+ 5x, and 40+ 2x. Then you take the GB D, who have faced mobile QB's in only 4 games (Pickett, Herbert, Fields & Ridder) - and other than Pickett (4/16 - but I'm not really sure I'd call him mobile), it's been way past this number (Fields 59 yds, Herbert 70+, Ridder 39) - so I have to take the shot at these odds. MNF Trevor Lawrence O11.5 rush yds (FRI AM - Same) 2U DK, alt lines pending (likely take 25+ range) vs. CIN - very similar story to Mahomes, he's hit that 12+ yard target 9/11x, and he faces a team with a decent edge pass rush, but who have also given up 40+ rush yds to QB 6x (2 of them to Lamar Jackson, but you get the point). The 25+ range alt line seems very reasonable if it's going to be at +300 or better. NEW ADDED THU PM - Evan Engram O4.5 catches +110 Bodog 2U (catch ladder great option if you have the option) vs. CIN - @SmittyBacall covered this, CIN is abysmal at TE coverage. I love this more than the yardage simply because Engram is almost all short-area now. If you have B365/US FD, you know what to do. With S Minkah Fitzpatrick back and CB Joey Porter Jr. elevating the pass coverage, passing on my initial lean to McBride/Dortch rec yd props. Even though Mike Evans still hit his main line last week, this is a possible TAM big W game script, so it's harder to take him again vs. CAR, as the ceiling for alt line goodness isn't nearly as good. Finally I'm sorely tempted to take Brandon Aiyuk rec yds and just spam the whole SF downfield pass game, and bank on 2 guys going nuts (and all 3 hitting main lines is very possible vs. PHI pass D). But I'll leave that for now, with 40.5U with 12 player props so far for Sunday (and maybe Aiyuk on the late slate). LONGSHOT TD EARLY Sam Howell +800 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U vs. MIA- Howell has 4 rush TD's, and he's a threat to score on designed runs (like @ DAL) or with scrambles, so this is a wild, wild line. He's like +400 range everywhere else Full stake play. Donald Parham +700 TheScore (+550 FD) / +7500 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U @ NE - yes, Gerald Everett is back, and yes, the NE D is tough against TE's. Parham's still their 2nd mismatch & still a favorite target near the EZ. Full-stake play at +700, at +500 or less I'd drop to half-stake. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Alex Erickson +1600 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ NE - Keenan Allen has missed practice the last 2 days, but the real issue is that every other WR ahead of Erickson (Quentin Johnston & Jalen Guyton) suck at football. As a result, Erickson's seen a 78% & 52% snap count. Being 4th on the depth chart is why the odds are so long, and why I can only take a half-stake play - but the chances he gets on the field in RZ are a lot higher this week than most, so have to take the YOLO play. Tyquan Thornton +700 / +10000 2+ Bodog & Kayshon Boutte +1000 / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - the LAC secondary is so awful, and these 2 guys are the ones who get the WR3/WR4 looks. Juju Smith-Schuster is completely washed in separating, and Demario Douglas is very much at risk of missing the game. This definitely puts these 2 in play, albeit at half-stake play, but making it a high-odds full-stake play for the position. EDIT SAT AM: Boutte ruled out, bet for him voids, leaving only Tyquan Thornton. NEW STAKE INCREASE FRI AM - Brevin Jordan +800 / +12500 2+ Bodog (DK +380, no FD/Score) 0.8U / 0.2U vs. DEN - Dalton Schultz missed practice for 2nd straight day and DEN pass D super TE friendly. Half-stake play easy call. EDIT FRI AM: Beat reporters are increasingly confident that Schultz isn't playing, so against the DEN D have to take the full-stake play now before Bodog realizes the change. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Jeremy Ruckert +1400 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ ATL - I know it's hard to take any Jets player for a TD prop. But Ruckert's now at a full split with Tyler Conklin, and TE is a prime RZ/EZ target, especially with ATL's secondary. Ruckert is +700 on DK (no FD/Score), so that's worth a half-stake play at +1400 being offered (but not more). NEW ADDED SUN AM - Lynn Bowden +750 / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DET (wait on 1-TD until noon) - AT Perry is the guy books are banking on, but Bowden's clearly playing best of all the guys behind Olave/Shaheed/Thomas. He should get 2nd WR ranking, but Perry is instead. Because it's FD we can wait until noon ET or so to see if it goes up. The only reason I'm not taking a full unit play is there's another dark horse that IMO has a good chance to get on the field in the RZ, and that's.... NEW ADDED SUN AM - Marquez Callaway +1800 FD / +2500 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DET - Callaway promoted from PS (of note, they didn't promote him last week to give AT Perry a chance - did nothing with it). Those are the 2nd / 3rd WR's who are more likely to get looks than AT Perry so going 0.4U/0.1U on both (waiting until noon to see if Bowden FD odds increase, but taking the 2+ now, as I'm locked in to +700 or better). LATE Ihmir Smith-Marsette +1400 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ TAM - the Panthers turning over the coaching staff, and Smith-Marsette starting to get on the field, makes this a hunch, so feel free to pass - I may be 2-3 weeks early here, but with Shenault missing more time, this is the explosive guy CAR may want out there (and they've started using him with jet sweeps / bubble screens). Punt returns as well, but that's never a good enough reason to back, just a bonus. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Stephen Sullivan +1100 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog @ TAM - CAR's top 2 TE are out / doubtful (Hurst & Tremble), which leaves Sullivan and Ian Thomas...but Thomas is the blocker. Sullivan gets almost all the pass work. Add in that TAM's 2 starting ILB's are out (Lavonte David & Devin White), this is def worth a half-stake play (FD is +850, which is just on the threshold to take as well). Hunter Bryant +900 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog @ LAR - with Joe Flacco at QB (or DTR if he gets back from concussion protocol), the CLE pass O has some hope, and we've seen how Bryant gets used in the RZ. At this number, easy to back another half-stake play (would have avoided if it was PJ Walker lol). SNF NEW FRI PM WAITING FOR SUN EVENING - Jordan Love +550 FD (for now) / +7000 2+ FD (for now) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. GB - this should get wider as SNF nears (after 730 PM ET), and I'll almost certainly take unless there's no movement. Laying this as a marker. MNF Nothing out yet If Juwan Johnson (at +350 on FD now) goes past +500 by noon, I'll take the stab as well. Also going to do the same on Jonathan Mingo for late slate, and Jordan Love for SNF. So that's 8.5U for 12 plays (assuming Mingo / Love get added; Ruckert & Smith-Marsette I'd readily admit are hunches, the other 7 have lock-solid opportunities, just Bryant's QB situation and NE QB obv awful, but facing vulnerable D's). If Juwan Johnson gets to +500, then it's 9.5U for 13 plays. That's definitely enough for now. So that's 53U in total so far on Sunday's slate, but with maybe Juwan Johnson and Brandon Aiyuk props, and SNF/MNF plays later on. Let's keep last MNF/TNF's momentum going! WEEK 13 to TNF ATS/ML: 25-30-2, -2.8U (WK 13 TNF - 1-0, +1U) PLAYER PROPS: 104-98, +91.2U (WK 13 TNF - 1-1, +2.8U) LONGSHOT TD: 21-167 - -19.2U (WK 13 TNF - 0-1, -1U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400) TOTAL - +69.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 TNF - +2.8U; 839U stake so far) 15 hours ago, Broncofan said: Chris Olave active news has finally come in, so I can take some NO props: SUN PLAYER PROP ADDITION NEW ADDED SUN AM - Juwan Johnson O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds 1U FD vs. DET - Olave being back IMO actually helps Johnson, as he'd be a more focal part of D coverage, but as it is, he's still the 2nd starter in the WR/TE corps. Carr's refusal to hit seam routes is why I can't go more than 1 alt line, but the yardage is more appealing than the O2.5 -140 (if you have alt lines on B365 or US, 4-5 isn't a bad play at all, but DET also gives up chunk plays, so yardage is my call). SUN LONGSHOT TD ADDITION NEW ADDED SUN AM - Lynn Bowden +750 / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DET (wait on 1-TD until noon) - AT Perry is the guy books are banking on, but Bowden's clearly playing best of all the guys behind Olave/Shaheed/Thomas. He should get 2nd WR ranking, but Perry is instead. Because it's FD we can wait until noon ET or so to see if it goes up. The only reason I'm not taking a full unit play is there's another dark horse that IMO has a good chance to get on the field in the RZ, and that's.... NEW ADDED SUN AM - Marquez Callaway +1800 FD / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DET - Callaway promoted from PS (of note, they didn't promote him last week to give AT Perry a chance - did nothing with it). Those are the 2nd / 3rd WR's who are more likely to get looks than AT Perry so going 0.4U/0.1U on both (waiting until noon to see if Bowden FD odds increase, but taking the 2+ now, as I'm locked in to +700 or better). If Juwan Johnson (at +350 on FD now) goes past +500 by noon, I'll take the stab as well. Also going to do the same on Jonathan Mingo for late slate, and Jordan Love for SNF. Other than the FD TD last-minute props, that's it...let's have a great Sunday! DK also gave me a 3rd free bet (after yesterday's UFC they probably took pity on me lol), so I'm taking a 6-leg +6600 free bet credit 0.2U parley for ATS/ML - LAC/NE O39 / IND ML @ TEN / CLE ML +164 @ LAR / DET -4.5 @ NO / SF -3 @ PHI / GB +6 vs. KC SNF - not going to actually put single bets on LAC & IND (since it's TEN at home, and it's LAC in general lol). 9 hours ago, Broncofan said: OK now I"m taking Brandon Aiyuk O65.5 rec yds The Score 2U, 87+ rec yds +210 1U DK & 109+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK. Jonathan Mingo +600 / +10000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD @ TAM - didn't move but I locked in the 2-TD before, hoping we can keep this up lol. LFG! WEEK 13 SUNDAY RECAP Well taking Brandon Aiyuk and Juwan Johnson last-minute were 2 whiffs for -3.5U & -3U each (Juwan dropped 2 balls early in 1Q and then spent a LOT of time on the sidelines - ruh roh). But man, it was quite the banner day... ATS/ML - 2-1, +1U - CLE ML let me down, but otherwise DET -4 & SF -3 were solid. PLAYER PROPS - 7-5, +13.6U - got unlucky with Bijan Robinson in that he got subbed out late for put-away drives (Arthur Smith grrr), and Jahmyr Gibbs only rushed the ball 8x for 60 yards (give him 12-15 and the alt lines start hitting). Devin Singletary was curiously put back into a backup role, oh well. Josh Downs & Juwan Johnson were just bad calls. Brandon Aiyuk was the guy who let the others eat. That's how you go 0/5 and Gibbs only gets main line. But then 5/7 players hit alt lines (and Jeudy was only the main line that was played), and 3 of them hit both alt lines (Deebo, Mingo <missed 3rd alt but that's OK lol> & Brevin Jordan), so that's how you get +13.6U....and still that wasn't even the best part... LONGSHOT TD - 2-10, +29.4U (WOOHOO) - this is why you ALWAYS take 2-TD if you like 1-TD. Brandon Johnson hits Week 2, and then Sam Howell hits the full-stake +800 / +12500 2+ play for +31.4U and then Harrison Bryant repeats for +900 half-stake for 4U, minus the other 7U that lost (Juwan never got even past +400, saved me 1U lol). And THAT's how you get back in the black for the TD ledger for the year. NGL, it's been a tougher grind this 2023 than last year (TD's being down 10+ percent accounts for longshot TD"s being less profitable than 2022), and the lines are getting sharper. But this was a beautiful Sunday slate. It's +44U day - we'll take it! WEEK 13 to SNF ATS/ML: 27-31-2, -1.8U (WK 13 SNF - 3-1, +2U) PLAYER PROPS: 110-104, +104.8U (WK 13 SNF - 8-6, +16.4U) LONGSHOT TD: 21-167 - +10.2U (WK 13 TNF - 2-13, +28.4U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400) TOTAL - +113.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 TNF - +46.8U; 892U stake so far) Edited December 4, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, Broncofan said: OK 2 new player props and 2 TD plays for SNF.... WEEK 13 SNF ATS/ML GB +6 - covered before PLAYER PROPS Patrick Mahomes O20.5 rush yds, 32+ rush yds +210 1U, 44+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK @ GB - we know KC's T's are their weak link in pass pro, and Rashan Gary is a problem. What that leads to - are Mahomes rush yds. He's gone 20+ 9 out of 11 games, 30+ 5x, and 40+ 2x. Then you take the GB D, who have faced mobile QB's in only 4 games (Pickett, Herbert, Fields & Ridder) - and other than Pickett (4/16 - but I'm not really sure I'd call him mobile), it's been way past this number (Fields 59 yds, Herbert 70+, Ridder 39) - so I have to take the shot at these odds. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Rashee Rice O44.5 rec yds 2U, 61+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ GB - GB's zone D is what Rashee Rice thrives on. Now that he's at a 80% snap count rate, it's all system go. Need GB to keep up with KC, though, that's the risk. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Christian Watson O40.5 rec yds 2U, 57+ rec yds +210 1U, 75+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 100+ rec yds +1200 0.5U DK (gulp) vs. GB- yes, this could absolutely backfire on me - but KC's pass D is best attacked with vertical / intermediate to deep guys, NOT short-intermediate. And that's Watson. So the 41+ yard prop is just too juicy not to take the 3-alt line play. LONGSHOT TD Jordan Love +700 / +11000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U vs. KC - we covered this before, odds went down to +650 and are now back up, missed the +750 but I'm good with the odds for a full-stake play with only AJ Dillon playing at RB (Patrick Taylor is a pass catcher). Noah Gray +900 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ GB - on the other hand, his odds go up from +800 so I'm glad I waited overall lol. Dontavyian Wicks +700 FD / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. KC - just a hunch, best matchup IMO (non-slot, Watson gets the attention). So that's 14U on SNF - more than enough....hope to keep the MNF/TNF & now Week 13 Sunday roll going! WEEK 13 SNF RECAP What an awesome Sunday. ATS/ML - GB +6 easy, never in jeopardy, +1U. PLAYER PROPS - 3-0, plus 1st alt line for Watson & Rice (and Watson had 75+ 2nd alt line until he blew his hammy on the last catch - oh well, he went out a warrior), so +7.2U. LONGSHOT TD - 1-2, Dontayvion Wicks had his chances in the RZ, and the ball was at the 1, but Jordan Love didn't try to score on his own, but yeah, Noah Gray +900 means it's +2.4U here too. So that's a +10.6U SNF, which makes it a +54.6U Sunday, and a +57.4U Week 13. What a day; let's keep it going for MNF! WEEK 13 to SNF ATS/ML: 28-31-2, -0.8U (WK 13 SNF - 4-1, +3U) PLAYER PROPS: 113-104, +112.0U (WK 13 MNF - 11-6, +23.6U) LONGSHOT TD: 25-179 - +12.6U (WK 13 MNF - 3-13, +30.8U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900) TOTAL - +123.8U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 to MNF - +57.4U; 906U stake so far) Edited December 4, 2023 by Broncofan 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 I love all yall hit a 7 leg 100-1 parlay bc of the plays. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) All right, let's get down to business for Monday.... WEEK 13 MNF ATS/ML Sadly....no idea. No play. PLAYER PROPS Trevor Lawrence O11.5 rush yds 2U; 18+ rush yds +200 1U & 28+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK vs. CIN - already covered before, not much to add. Evan Engram O4.5 catches +110 2U (B365 / US FD - consider 6-7) vs. CIN - CIN's horrific vs. TE, but Engram often plays the short area, so I prefer the catch prop. B365 & US FD owners, I'd seriously consider 6-7 alt lines (and 8 if you must lol). NEW ADDED SUN PM - Calvin RIdley O56.5 rec yds FD (DK 58.5) 2U; 79+ rec yds +210 1U & 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U - CIN gives up almost 70+ percent of their fantasy WR points to boundary WR's - and CIN CB Cam Taylor-Britt is again inactive. With RIdley running the fully diversified route tree since Zay Jones returned to run most of the go routes, gotta go back to the well here. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Ja'marr Chase O56.5 rec yds DK (FD 57.5) 2U; 75+ rec yds +210 1U & 96+ rec yds +500 0.5U - I know Jake Browning isn't Joe Burrow. But here's the thing - JAX is a top 5 run D, they have to throw it. And even if it's by sheer volume, I think Ja'marr will get his. He also can hit 1 big chunk play and get most of the alt line. If Burrow was playing, this line would be 20-25 yards higher. If not more. That's too much of an overcorrection. Really, if all the above players stay healthy, I'm good with this line. That's 12.5U with 4 players, more than enough lol LONGSHOT TD NEW ADDED SUN PM - D'Ernest Johnson +450 / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CIN - I know that Travis Etienne is supposed to play, but I have to believe D'Ernest will take over duties more with Etienne nursing some injuries, it's good value at +400 or more as I think it should be more like +200 with Etienne's issues. I'd probably have stuck to the half-stake play, but the Week 13 Sunday roll has me risking the full-stake (YOLO lol). NEW ADDED SUN PM - Luke Farrell +1100 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - 3rd TE Brenton Strange was seen in a boot on Saturday and added to the injury report - which just makes Farrell a more solid 12 formation RZ play. It's what led to the 2 TD's with Bryant and Gray this week, I was already looking here, but the Strange news has me definitely playing this, albeit at half-stake since he is clearly the #2 TE and they don't design plays for him specifically (like Parham, etc.). NEW ADDED SUN PM - Andre Iosivas +1500 DK (+1400 FD) / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX - yes, Tee Higgins is back. Yes, Trenton Irwin is ahead of him as 4th WR. But as we saw in the SF game, even with all 5 WR's active, the Bengals like having Iosivas on the field near the EZ. At that insane #, have to take the half-stake play. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Tanner Hudson +800 DK (+650 elsewhere) / +11000 FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX - yes, Irv Smith and even Drew Sample (being better blockers) take a lot of snaps away in the RZ. It's just as long as Hudson is clearly their best receiving TE, it's worth attacking the prop at those odds. He literally gets most of the targets now...and yet he's priced at similar or longer odds than Smith. Gotta take the half-unit play here. So that's 2.5U with 4 TD plays, and 15U for tomorrow's slate, which is a little aggressive, but I had my eye on all 4 player props, and the TD plays above all have great value according to my evals, so gotta stick with them. Let's finish an awesome Week 13 strong with MNF; BOL! Edited December 4, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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