Weekly Bets Thread

[adamq]

8 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Anyone on here really good at First TD scoring? I havent looked into that market but Id love to try it if anyone has a read on it on Sunday Id definitely tail lol.

 

In my experience its a total crapshoot. First team td scorer is a little better, for instance id be curious to see David Montgomery's line this week with the revenge game narrative... but still, not something I've messed with at all this year 

[Broncofan]

Samaje Perine is so iffy to play tomorrow that the Broncos called up a PS RB -  so Jaleel McLaughlin +800 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ LAC taken, as he gets all of Perine's work and the change-of-pace for Javonte Williams, but is getting 3rd RB odds.

The JAX-CLE odds are out, and I have to take a half-stake stab with Harrison Bryant +900 The Score (+850 DK) / ??? 2-TD (+10000 Bodog, but at that number DK should be better) 0.4U / 0.1U vs JAX - should have 2-TD on DK out tonight/tomorrow.   It's clear they look his way in the RZ, at those #'s it's an auto-play.

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

2 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Anyone on here really good at First TD scoring? I havent looked into that market but Id love to try it if anyone has a read on it on Sunday Id definitely tail lol.

 

In contrast I do like an NBA first basket bet once in awhile, if you dig through game logs sometimes you can catch a trend with some players or teams.. in the past (I know he's hurt now) Lonzo Ball was very consistently taking 3s to open games for instance. 

Myles Turner first basket is +650 on FD, I'm taking that... but be mindful I'm a Turner/Pacers fan so take that with a grain of salt 😂

[NYRaider]

On 12/8/2023 at 1:55 PM, thebestever6 said:

I may put Clyde Edward's helaire rushing in a parlay I like the over 52.5 not enough to straight bet it though.  He's been waiting for this opportunity. 

Clyde sucks unfortunately. 

[Broncofan]

2 player props finally became available, and they're so low it's worth the shot, both on the early slate

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Brevin Jordan O23.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +240 1U, 60+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ NYJ - yes, the weather's going to be bad.   But with the NYJ CB's, the TE is always in a huge funnel spot, giving up 45+ yards a game to TE's.   Plus, if the weather's bad - the short pass game is what gets emphasized, and that's again Brevin Jordan.  With no Dalton Schultz, have to go with the full alt lines.

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Amari Cooper O45.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +280 1U, 100+ rec yds +900 0.5U vs. JAX - another case where JAX's top 5 run D, combined with very poor perimeter coverage, makes Cooper a great play.   Joe Flacco was targeting him on almost 40 percent of the throws before Cooper left, with this low a number, have to attack this.

Both are added to the main Sunday card, definitely enough for now, as we have 45.5U in 13 player props, and 8.5U in TD plays with 14 players, for 54U total.... full card is updated on page 384 (link below) ....BOL!

 

     

 

Edited December 10, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

12 hours ago, adamq said:

In contrast I do like an NBA first basket bet once in awhile, if you dig through game logs sometimes you can catch a trend with some players or teams.. in the past (I know he's hurt now) Lonzo Ball was very consistently taking 3s to open games for instance. 

Myles Turner first basket is +650 on FD, I'm taking that... but be mindful I'm a Turner/Pacers fan so take that with a grain of salt 😂

Yeah Ive noticed a few people being into the NBA first basket. Theyve actually had success with it. I think its more luck than NFL First TD scorer. 

Didnt watch the beginning of the Pacers/Lakers game bc I was watching my LSU Tigers QB Jayden Daniels win the Heisman but did Turner score the first basket? Just curious. 

[stl4life07]

15 hours ago, adamq said:

In my experience its a total crapshoot. First team td scorer is a little better, for instance id be curious to see David Montgomery's line this week with the revenge game narrative... but still, not something I've messed with at all this year 

Yeah I think it could be a crapshoot depending on the team and the game in general. I do think its more predictable than NBA First basket scored. I think NBA player method of first basket similar to NFL First TD scorer. Like you know Steph most likely is going to score his first basket via 3. You know Nic Claxton (my Brooklyn Nets player) is going to score his first basket as a 2pt shot. 

You are right about the Montgomery revenge game narrative. The only hesitation is that you could use that same logic last time they played and he didnt score a TD until really late in that game to help the Lions come back and win. 

[adamq]

17 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Yeah Ive noticed a few people being into the NBA first basket. Theyve actually had success with it. I think its more luck than NFL First TD scorer. 

Didnt watch the beginning of the Pacers/Lakers game bc I was watching my LSU Tigers QB Jayden Daniels win the Heisman but did Turner score the first basket? Just curious. 

Nope.. Myles had a bad game too. AD was on a mission and Turner did not live up to his reputation as a defender. Fouled out with like 5 minutes left in the game

[Broncofan]

My ATS/ML plays for this weekend:

 

WEEK 14 SUNDAY ATS/ML

CAR ML +240 @ NO 2U -  I could regret this one, but reality is that NO can't stop the run nearly as well, no Marshawn Lattimore, and Derek Carr playing IMO is not a plus, given that he's so limited.   No Taysom (who is JAG IMO, but the dual threat running helps over Carr), and literally only Chris Olave & Juwan Johnson are the starting receivers/TE's.     If there's ever a game that's really a toss up so it's this one so give me the +240 ML odds.

CLE ML vs JAX pick 'em - with T-Law starting, the line has come down to a pick 'em - but IMO that's too far in bad weather, with the CLE pass D and pass rush.   They should make life miserable for T-Law, and on the flip side, the Jags can't cover anyone (great vs. the run).   

MIN - 3 @ LV - the one fly in the ointment is Josh Dobbs' TO vulnerability.   But even if MIN loses the TO battle -1, they'd still cover IMO.    JJ's return, Brian Flores exploiting a rookie QB, LV often being friendly to road teams (lot of road trip fans make these games)

SEA - SF U47 - I know SEA's pass game was prolific vs. DAL, but that was with Geno Smith.   With an intra-divisional game, I like the chances the teams know each other well, and we get a few more FG's than TD's this week. 

BUF ML +110 @ KC - as long as it doesn't go to OT, I like BUF here (lol that's a joke).    Josh Allen has rebounded in a massive way, and no Pacheco is a huge loss for KC, along with more OL injuries.   

GB / NYG O36.5 - GB's D isn't elite, and they'll be facing Saquon Barkley.   The GB OL is great at pass pro, and if you neuter the pass rush for Wink Martindale, you expose the DB's.   This feels at least 4+ pts too low TBH, given the weather is OK.   If the other 5-legs hit, this also allows me to hedge this out. 

That's 7U in play, and my free 0.2U bet credit boost is going here, for the 0.2U  +14000 6-leg parley as well.   BOL!

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2023 by Broncofan

[JonStark]

Really like Mahomes U29.5 rush yards. Normally target the over but that line is high. 

[adamq]

Some last minute td plays to consider

 

Trey Palmer 550 FD /7000 DK

Clear wr3, looks like a good spot for Otton but I like what I've seen from Palmer

 

McKinnon +230/+2000 FD

CEH is a trash can. Next

 

Tim Jones +1700 FD

Just looks like value to me compared to Parker Washington at +600

[BobbyPhil1781]

18 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Anyone on here really good at First TD scoring? I havent looked into that market but Id love to try it if anyone has a read on it on Sunday Id definitely tail lol.

 

I do a couple of these every week and just don't overthink it. Seems to work fairly well. I like to do first team TDs for slightly worse odds.

[NYRaider]

Any two picks that stand out a lot in the early games?

@N4L @Broncofan

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Any two picks that stand out a lot in the early games?

@N4L @Broncofan

Hubbard at 47.5 rush yds was my fave pick of the week - at 57.5, not so much.

I think CAR ML has the most value (I truly think it should be a pick 'em), but it's no lock (just +240 for a pick 'em is insane).  I obv like them all, but I have to say with the weather forecast improved, I really like Hudson O23.5 & Jordan O23.5 (to go with Drake London, because it's TAM pass D, so pick your poison).

 

2 late TD additions:

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Zach Wilson +1000 FD (+800 DK) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. HOU - fun fact, no RB has carried the ball inside the 5-yard line for NYJ this year.   Given it's Zach redemption day, let's play the long odds on a rushing TD for him.  

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Juwan Johnson +400  / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CAR -  with so many ppl out I have to go back to the Juwan well.   Having Carr instead of Jameis, but with no MT, no Taysom, and no Shaheed, they've got to use Juwan in the RZ at the very least....well, anyone with a brain (which does not include OC Pete Carmichael) - but I'll absolutely kick myself if I don't take the widest path to TD opportunity this year for their biggest mismatch.   

 

That wraps it up, I'm well over 60U committeed to SUN (so bankroll management might say go half-stake on my plays if you follow lol), but the depressed totals and the longer TD odds, combined with much better weather, I have to leverage where I see opportunity....so BOL everyone!

 

[NYRaider]

40 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Hubbard at 47.5 rush yds was my fave pick of the week - at 57.5, not so much.

I think CAR ML has the most value (I truly think it should be a pick 'em), but it's no lock (just +240 for a pick 'em is insane).  I obv like them all, but I have to say with the weather forecast improved, I really like Hudson O23.5 & Jordan O23.5 (to go with Drake London, because it's TAM pass D, so pick your poison).

 

2 late TD additions:

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Zach Wilson +1000 FD (+800 DK) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. HOU - fun fact, no RB has carried the ball inside the 5-yard line for NYJ this year.   Given it's Zach redemption day, let's play the long odds on a rushing TD for him.  

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Juwan Johnson +400  / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CAR -  with so many ppl out I have to go back to the Juwan well.   Having Carr instead of Jameis, but with no MT, no Taysom, and no Shaheed, they've got to use Juwan in the RZ at the very least....well, anyone with a brain (which does not include OC Pete Carmichael) - but I'll absolutely kick myself if I don't take the widest path to TD opportunity this year for their biggest mismatch.   

 

That wraps it up, I'm well over 60U committeed to SUN (so bankroll management might say go half-stake on my plays if you follow lol), but the depressed totals and the longer TD odds, combined with much better weather, I have to leverage where I see opportunity....so BOL everyone!

 

I took Grupe O1.5 FG / Roschon O1.5 reception at +300

Edited December 10, 2023 by NYRaider