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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

@Broncofan you say the way to attack the saints d is the slot right? How do you like Robinson +400 to score?

It’s ok but not great.   Kupp gets almost all the targets there.  The Saints are incredibly vulnerable to the run.    So it’s about right.  Which means it’s not really value. 

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
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50 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

hit a 28 unit parlay boys!!! Carr over 2 tds, Stafford over 2 tds, Carr 200 yards, Stafford 225 yards, Stafford 22 completions, Carr 22 completions, Robinson 40 yards, Juwan Johnson 40 yards booya!!

Congrats!  NGL, things looked pretty f'in brutal for NO O outside of Olave - but that's why garbage time matters so much.

WEEK 16 TNF RECAP 

ATS/ML - 1-0, +1.1U - missed FG, missed TD x2 by Kupp (1 TD scored later, 1 FG)....still, no sweat W by early 3Q lol.  

PLAYER PROPS - 3-2, +6.6U - forecasting NO in catchup mode, the 3U Kamara call was just a bad eval.   Kupp I don't feel bad about, he got hurt early in game, and then still missed a 25 yard out, and 2 TD's for 10+ more yards, that I think a healthy guy gets.   That's the risk of TNF....but because I got the gamescript right, Olave (who went nuts, I really regret that the alt lines weren't out when he was O51.5 I would have made a mint lol), Shaheed & Juwan Johnson all go WAY past their main props.    So even with 2 o-fers with -6.5U, the other 3 go +13.2U for a tidy +6.7U day.  And that's not all.....

LONGSHOT TD - 1-1, +4.2U - honestly, I wonder what might have been had Juwan Johnson not gotten hurt for 4+ games, and Jimmy Graham not signed late in the offseason.   Still, we only need 1 more TD to get the season prop of O3.5, and better yet, we get a full-stake play hit at +600, so a tidy little profit.    With TAM next week & ATL Week 18, there's a really good shot to get 1 more, so let's keep our fingers crossed, but just enjoy it for tonight.

So that's a beautiful +11.9U profit for TNF, turning around the pain from last week's SNF/MNF.   Let's keep it going on Saturday!

 

 

WEEK 16 TNF 

ATS/ML: 36-35-1, +0.4U (WK 16 TNF - 1-0, +1.1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 137-121, +137.2U  (WK 16 TNF - 3-2, +6.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 31-228- +14.9U  (WK 16 TNF - 1-1, +4.2U, +9.8U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600)

TOTAL - +152.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 TNF - +11.9U; 1144U stake so far)

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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stl4life07

stl4life07

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

hit a 28 unit parlay boys!!! Carr over 2 tds, Stafford over 2 tds, Carr 200 yards, Stafford 225 yards, Stafford 22 completions, Carr 22 completions, Robinson 40 yards, Juwan Johnson 40 yards booya!!

Congrats! 

I hit on a smaller parlay using the 50% boost on Bet365. It was I believe just over 3 unit win. 

O0.5 FG Made, Kyren 50yds rushing and an ATTD, Kupp 4 catches and 50yds receiving, and Kamara 3 catches.

All of it was sweat free outside of Kyren not getting into the endzone for awhile, Kupp barely got 50yds (52yds) and it took on one drive for Kamara to get most of his catches. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
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A couple more props for the weekend…

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Joshua Palmer o38.5 rec yds 2U / 60+ rec yds +280 1U / 80+ rec yds +900 0.5U.   No 2nd alt line but if they haven’t added it likely won’t until close to game time odds advantage drops if main line goes up.   


 NEW ADDED FRI AM - Sam Howell +700 Score (+600) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U @ NYJ - As long as there’s no Brian Robinson Howell becomes the best short yardage guy and a threat on scramble / RPO to score.     Especially given NYJ excellent coverage this is worth the full stake play (like Mia game).

 

 NEW ADDED FRI AM Tommy Tremble +850 FD (+625 Score +500 or less everywhere else) & Stephen Sullivan +1600 TheScore (+1200 FD but +800 or less everywhere else) for 0.4U each, wait on FD/Bodog 2+ for Tremble, Bodog 2+ TD on Sullivan - we know how vulnerable GB D is as a whole, these TD odds with Hayden Hurst on IR are too good to pass up (combo play to cover TE).   Bodog doesn’t have 2-TD yet I think they will have best odds on both (0.1U each) if FD doesn’t post 2-TD.

Almost certainly going to add Joshua Palmer & Pat Freirmuth TD props** (Palmer at +330 FD & +350 TheScore  & Freirmuth at +400 FD / +440 The Score right now) but will wait to see if there’s a last hour odds surge.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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OK, so the CLV losers with going early are more numerous this week - DJ Moore goes from 68.5 to 63.5 (!!! - oh well, makes his alt lines very nice at lower target #'s), while Tee Higgins goes from 59.5 to 57.5, and James Cook goes from 69.5 to 67.5, Darius Slayton goes from 27.5 to 26.5.       Everywhere else, it's a gain or neutral in CLV.   DJ Moore kinda surprises me, maybe it's the weather, but otherwise, I'm OK with everything else (and with Moore, you almost have to take the alt lines now, the value if you thought O68.5 was good makes 83 +210 & 106+ +500 even better value - obv more risk with the main line, though).  

Alt lines are now posted for all SAT plays & the late SUN games & SNF & all MON games.   Weird that the early SUN game don't have 2nd alt lines on DK, but everything else does.  🤷‍♂️

Please note - it's not a typo, I'm going 3-alt lines with Pat Freirmuth & Darius Slayton - their totals are so low compared to my projections.   I'll update the SUN card alt lines for early slate once it's up (but as always, B365 is likely best).   

 

Cards are updated on pages 399 & 400, links below.  Let's keep the TNF momentum going into the holiday weekend!

 

SAT slate

 

 

 

SUN slate

 

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
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2 more plays with final injury reports out for SUN: 

 

 

- I’m going to take a shot on Trevor Lawrence playing and take Calvin Ridley O55.5 rec yds 2U, 76+ rec yds +220 1U, 98+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 120+ rec yds +900 +0.5U DK @ TAM - if Trevor gets activated then Ridley’s ceiling skyrockets.    I’m also using 1 of my 2 free bet credits on Calvin Ridley +4000 top SUN yardage WR 0.2U.     Definitely a YOLO play.

 

NEW ADDED James Mitchell +1400 TheScore / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ MIN - he’s +800 everywhere else with news backup TD Brock Wright is out.  Not worth it IMO unless he’s +1200 or more.  
 

Both added to the SUN card.   There’s likely 1 more player prop I’m targeting for SUN then we’re done.   

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