Weekly Bets Thread

[adamq]

54 minutes ago, JonStark said:

I'm in PA. I'm probably going to FD because I usually have trouble trying to register for any of the smaller ones, but if there's a better one out there, I'd give it a shot. 

Yep fanduel/draftkings would be the best in terms of customer service, reliability, easy withdrawals, and app functionality

 

Caesars always has some good promos throughout the NFL season

 

Bet365 is the best for alt lines, especially NBA. 

I haven't tried Fanatics, used to be Pointsbet and they were a mess

 

Would not recommend BetMGM, buggy app and bad customer service.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

13 hours ago, Tank4Drake said:

Betting the Patriots under 4.5 is a horrendous bet. Drake Maye is going to step in Week 5 at the latest and make that entire team looked way better than it is. 

its hard to make them look worse

[dcat]

14 hours ago, Tank4Drake said:

Betting the Patriots under 4.5 is a horrendous bet. Drake Maye is going to step in Week 5 at the latest and make that entire team looked way better than it is. 

QFT

odds are plus money.  The number is actually closer to o/u 5.5, which is about right regardless of your hope for an immediate Maye break-out. Unlikely, actually.  I will gladly take the +130 for u4.5.  Great value bet.

Edited August 5 by dcat

[Andrewjetty]

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[Broncofan]

After DK stock dropped almost 10 percent since the announcement looks like they figured out how bad the PR angle was.  Will be interesting to see if they increase the vig instead. 
 

 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

What is your favorite AFC championship price? And wouldnt mind getting a 3rd one in for another cheap free bet piece 

i have 2 parlay tickets where the only outstanding leg on each is KC AFC champs and Texans AFC champs

Both were $5 free bets and each pays out $960 

I was thinking Jets or Bengals. Not sure i want any part of Baltimore or Buffalo at the price 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 8/5/2024 at 11:46 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

its hard to make them look worse

ok so I lied. Trading Judon makes them look worse

[Broncofan]

DK has put out early TD / 2-TD props out, and there's a big online uproar that the lines are worse as a result of the new state taxes, and the PR fallout from them adding that tax to the bill.  

I'd be cautious in interpreting that the lines are now just that much lower - because they're issuing lines out 2+ weeks before games begin, they are running the risk that injury will create massive value to the TD plays that are active.  Remember that if a player is inactive, that prop voids.   So the lower lines overall reflect the book taking more precautions (for example, if Ja'Marr Chase holds out, then the other CIN receiver TD equity goes way up - so there's a ridiculous Andre Iosivas +180 TD line out right now - but it's assuming Chase may not play.   It's still not good value-wise, but it looks egregious without context).

 

Having said that, there are 5 plays I'm locking in right now - I'll be upfront, there are 2 that IMO have a decent risk the player may not dress - but in that case, the bet voids.  Putting it out now because I think the lines will get steamed.    The reason I'm also not waiting for FD or other books - they're all +1000 range or more, so FD doesn't bother with 2-TD props in those longshots. 

Remember the principle - If I take +400 or better longshot TD plays, I only need to hit 20 percent of the time to be profitable (and the 2-3x a year that a longshot guy goes for 2-TD's, the payoff is massive - Brandon Johnson, Sam Howell did it last year for 80-100 to 1).    But while I'm looking for implied value over the odds, it still means most of these plays whiff - but IMO their TD opportunity is far ahead of the odds.     Also - please don't misinterpret that these guys are deep fantasy sleepers.     They're longshot TD players for a reason, this is all about their implied vs. my perceived TD probability and finding value.

So let's go....

 

WEEK 1 EARLY RELEASE LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Noah Gray +1200 / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (BAL @ KC) - those who know me from last year shouldn't be surprised.  Gray is a part of their RZ package, and with no MVS and 2 small guys now on the top 3 rotation (Hollywood Brown & Xavier Worthy), if it gets to the RZ, that 2nd TE is always an option with Mahomes.   Gray cashed for us 2x last year at +800 or better, so I'm definitely up for +1200 here (esp with Kyle Hamilton almost certainly matching up on Travis Kelce).

Calvin Austin III +1000 / +13000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U (PIT @ ATL) - those might remember Austin paid out +2000 in the playoffs.   He's now at +1000, but IMO this is still massive value, because with Diontae Johnson gone, Austin is the clear slot WR (Van Jefferson is the other wideout in 11 personnel).    Now, with Russell Wilson slinging it, it's rough, but the opps and touches for Austin will be there.   I would have pegged Austin's chances at getting a RZ target at 20-25 percent, so +1000 I'm all over.   Jefferson at +450, not so much because the odds are in line with  what I see as his probability.   Because I'm fairly certain of Austin's role and PT, this is worth the full 1U combined play.    Of note, David Terrell is almost certainly going to try and take out Pickens, and Roman Wilson hasn't seen the field yet returning from HAS, so it increases Austin's equity this week.

Ben Sinnott +1000 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (WAS @ TAM) - ok, he's a rookie.   We know how rookie years go with TE's unless you're Vernon Davis, or Sam Laporta.   And Zach Ertz is the starter.  Here's the thing, though - Ertz doesn't block, Sinnott is a great inline TE.     And that's how you get the TE for a TD, with play action, and the inline guy going free.   We saw Cole Turner at +2000 literally get 2 TD targets (and get tackled at the 1) - maybe Week 1 is too soon, but it's all there.  

Lucas Krull +1700 / +19000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (DEN @ SEA) - yes, Adam Trautman is the inline TE.  And yes, Greg Dulcich is healthy.  But Krull is the guy who can catch, and do a little inline work in 12, or even 13 formation.   And we know Payton trusts him, we saw him get tons of looks last year while Dulcich was out.    This is basically DEN's version of Donald Parham (where Gerald Everett was the starter in LAC, Parham was the RZ matchup problem - sadly, with all the WR's gone, Parham's value is now poof, he's not even at +500 now - hard pass).

Audric Estime +1300 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (DEN@SEA)  - make no mistake, Javonte Williams is still the lead back.   But we've already seen Estime come in as the short-yardage hammer in the preseason, and that's clearly a role that the ND rookie is being groomed for.    In the scenario where he's inactive, then the bet voids - but if he's active, short-yardage and GL are where we'd look to see him play.     Plus, between now and the SEA game, if either Javonte Williams or Jaleel Mclaughlin get hurt, Estime's props plummet to backup range (+300 to +400).   I already think he's got about 15-20 percent TD opp equity, given the GL hammer angle.   So this is worth the full unit play.

NEW ADDED AUG 21 - Hayden Hurst +800 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U (LV@LAC) - full props to @BStanRamFan on this one, Hurst is the new Gerald Everett (DIssly is the blocking TE), so while Donald Parham isn't going away in the RZ, Everett got his fair share of RZ looks, so it's crazy that Hurst is this high while Parham is +400.   SIgn me up for the full stake play.

 

There are several players that the books aren't even putting out props out, and we haven't seen FD or the other books out yet, but it's good to get some Week 1 props out.  That's 4U on 6 plays, leaving more bankroll as FD & other books release more props (if you can get better value, by all means - please do NOT take the above if the lines are dramatically lower - it's all about the value in the above lines).  BOL!

Edited August 21 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

we're back!!! only cause for pause with me on Austin is he'll probably line up in the slot and russ doesn't use middle of the field.

Edited August 21 by thebestever6

[JaguarCrazy2832]

So glad to be back! Played several TD every game props, some TD & FG ones too. 

If just 1 TD & FG every game bet comes in, it covers the rest of the bets for the year lol

 

 

[thebestever6]

fanduel sucks anymore they don't have that bet $50 on the Superbowl and get $5 in bonus bets for every game that team wins up to 10 wins I loved that bet lop.

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

we're back!!! only cause for pause with me on Austin is he'll probably line up in the slot and russ doesn't use middle of the field.

That's incredibly fair, but keep in mind just because you're in the slot doesn't mean you stay to the middle of the field on the routes run.   And remember Austin's scored on jet sweeps & bubble screens.  

Edited August 21 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

We've almost made it, boys. Won't be long now. Happy to see everyone back!

B365 hasn't yet opened the books on Player Props, but from a Bengals fan perspective, there are two names I will be keeping early tabs on. First, Mike Gesicki. He's our clear starter at TE, reports have only been positive out of camp, and he's been scoring regularly in practice. I have a feeling he will be undervalued in TD (even though he's a dynamic RZ target), receptions and receiving yard props on opening day, so I will be looking to take advantage. I'd imagine his lines will be somewhere in the realm of o/u 2.5 receptions, o/u 22.5 receiving yards, and +400 to score. I will be taking action on all, and will likely explore alt lines. There's also the "revenge game" aspect vs. NE, if you're into that sort of thing.

The second name is Andrei Iosivas. He's gained similar hype to Gesicki as our big-slot, and will likely split 50% of slot snaps with Trenton Irwin Week 1. If his odds/lines are similar to Gesicki, I will be tailing them the same. Remember, Ja'Marr Chase, while expected to play (and hopefully even sign his extension before the season starts), has missed all of camp sitting out. Guys like Iosivas have been getting the extra reps at the starting spots and may be more involved out of the gate. I don't expect Jermaine Burton to be a factor anytime soon as he is still running with the 2s and 3s.

Aside from that, Chase Brown receptions and receiving yards will be interesting. He's going to see heavy usage in the screen game this year.

I'll follow up on this post once lines are released.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

fanduel sucks anymore they don't have that bet $50 on the Superbowl and get $5 in bonus bets for every game that team wins up to 10 wins I loved that bet lop.

Yea that was a great promo. Caesars did it too. I actually used it on SF & KC so that was an awesome win for me lol

They might still do it, a few weeks left. 

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Yea that was a great promo. Caesars did it too. I actually used it on SF & KC so that was an awesome win for me lol

They might still do it, a few weeks left. 

Yeah, this is WAY too soon to write off that promo being offered.    If it's not out after Labor Day weekend, then sure, it's probably not happening.  But they're all about trying to capture the casual betting crowd and getting them hooked, so it's a little too soon. 

Timing-wise, the best time to garner the most interest is after all the preseason games are done.   Gotta fill up that dead time with higher-interest promotions.  For now, the books have preseason action to keep bettors interested. 

Edited August 21 by Broncofan