Weekly Bets Thread

[adamq]

10 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Those are nice odds for a guy who will be sneaky productive, but I just couldn't bring myself to bet against MHJ and Nabers.

I get that for sure, those guys are likely the #1 target earners right off the bat.. and it will could take some sort of extended injury to Kirk or Engram for BTJ to get there

[NYRaider]

Jack Jones O1.5 interceptions is +140 

I like that a lot

@N4L @Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 8/20/2024 at 7:00 PM, Broncofan said:

DK has put out early TD / 2-TD props out, and there's a big online uproar that the lines are worse as a result of the new state taxes, and the PR fallout from them adding that tax to the bill.  

I'd be cautious in interpreting that the lines are now just that much lower - because they're issuing lines out 2+ weeks before games begin, they are running the risk that injury will create massive value to the TD plays that are active.  Remember that if a player is inactive, that prop voids.   So the lower lines overall reflect the book taking more precautions (for example, if Ja'Marr Chase holds out, then the other CIN receiver TD equity goes way up - so there's a ridiculous Andre Iosivas +180 TD line out right now - but it's assuming Chase may not play.   It's still not good value-wise, but it looks egregious without context).

 

Having said that, there are 5 plays I'm locking in right now - I'll be upfront, there are 2 that IMO have a decent risk the player may not dress - but in that case, the bet voids.  Putting it out now because I think the lines will get steamed.    The reason I'm also not waiting for FD or other books - they're all +1000 range or more, so FD doesn't bother with 2-TD props in those longshots. 

Remember the principle - If I take +400 or better longshot TD plays, I only need to hit 20 percent of the time to be profitable (and the 2-3x a year that a longshot guy goes for 2-TD's, the payoff is massive - Brandon Johnson, Sam Howell did it last year for 80-100 to 1).    But while I'm looking for implied value over the odds, it still means most of these plays whiff - but IMO their TD opportunity is far ahead of the odds.     Also - please don't misinterpret that these guys are deep fantasy sleepers.     They're longshot TD players for a reason, this is all about their implied vs. my perceived TD probability and finding value.

So let's go....

 

WEEK 1 EARLY RELEASE LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Noah Gray +1200 / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (BAL @ KC) - those who know me from last year shouldn't be surprised.  Gray is a part of their RZ package, and with no MVS and 2 small guys now on the top 3 rotation (Hollywood Brown & Xavier Worthy), if it gets to the RZ, that 2nd TE is always an option with Mahomes.   Gray cashed for us 2x last year at +800 or better, so I'm definitely up for +1200 here (esp with Kyle Hamilton almost certainly matching up on Travis Kelce).

Calvin Austin III +1000 / +13000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U (PIT @ ATL) - those might remember Austin paid out +2000 in the playoffs.   He's now at +1000, but IMO this is still massive value, because with Diontae Johnson gone, Austin is the clear slot WR (Van Jefferson is the other wideout in 11 personnel).    Now, with Russell Wilson slinging it, it's rough, but the opps and touches for Austin will be there.   I would have pegged Austin's chances at getting a RZ target at 20-25 percent, so +1000 I'm all over.   Jefferson at +450, not so much because the odds are in line with  what I see as his probability.   Because I'm fairly certain of Austin's role and PT, this is worth the full 1U combined play.    Of note, David Terrell is almost certainly going to try and take out Pickens, and Roman Wilson hasn't seen the field yet returning from HAS, so it increases Austin's equity this week.

Ben Sinnott +1000 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (WAS @ TAM) - ok, he's a rookie.   We know how rookie years go with TE's unless you're Vernon Davis, or Sam Laporta.   And Zach Ertz is the starter.  Here's the thing, though - Ertz doesn't block, Sinnott is a great inline TE.     And that's how you get the TE for a TD, with play action, and the inline guy going free.   We saw Cole Turner at +2000 literally get 2 TD targets (and get tackled at the 1) - maybe Week 1 is too soon, but it's all there.  

Lucas Krull +1700 / +19000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (DEN @ SEA) - yes, Adam Trautman is the inline TE.  And yes, Greg Dulcich is healthy.  But Krull is the guy who can catch, and do a little inline work in 12, or even 13 formation.   And we know Payton trusts him, we saw him get tons of looks last year while Dulcich was out.    This is basically DEN's version of Donald Parham (where Gerald Everett was the starter in LAC, Parham was the RZ matchup problem - sadly, with all the WR's gone, Parham's value is now poof, he's not even at +500 now - hard pass).

Audric Estime +1300 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (DEN@SEA)  - make no mistake, Javonte Williams is still the lead back.   But we've already seen Estime come in as the short-yardage hammer in the preseason, and that's clearly a role that the ND rookie is being groomed for.    In the scenario where he's inactive, then the bet voids - but if he's active, short-yardage and GL are where we'd look to see him play.     Plus, between now and the SEA game, if either Javonte Williams or Jaleel Mclaughlin get hurt, Estime's props plummet to backup range (+300 to +400).   I already think he's got about 15-20 percent TD opp equity, given the GL hammer angle.   So this is worth the full unit play.

NEW ADDED AUG 21 - Hayden Hurst +800 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U (LV@LAC) - full props to @BStanRamFan on this one, Hurst is the new Gerald Everett (DIssly is the blocking TE), so while Donald Parham isn't going away in the RZ, Everett got his fair share of RZ looks, so it's crazy that Hurst is this high while Parham is +400.   SIgn me up for the full stake play.

 

There are several players that the books aren't even putting out props out, and we haven't seen FD or the other books out yet, but it's good to get some Week 1 props out.  That's 4U on 6 plays, leaving more bankroll as FD & other books release more props (if you can get better value, by all means - please do NOT take the above if the lines are dramatically lower - it's all about the value in the above lines).  BOL!

OK FD has released TD & yardage props for TNF (no alt lines), and DK has released yardage props with alt lines for TNF & Friday's game, a couple that popped up right away at me for TNF/Friday, and 1 more TD prop to add (and an increased stake) for Sunday: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WEEK 1 TNF OPENER

PLAYER PROPS

NEW AUG 27 - Zay Flowers O51.5 rec yds to win 2U FD (DK - 52.5 AUG 28), 69+ rec yds +210 1U DK, 90+ rec yds +500 0.5U (BAL @ KC) - Flowers is the #1 WR, and while KC has a great pass D, no Snead as their #1 CB, and by scheme they let the short area passes get completed - where we know Flowers gets a lot of work.   Mark Andrews at 45.5 (DK - 47.5) isn't bad either, but the guy who could absolutely crush their line and go 75+/100+ is Flowers.    Because FD hasn't put out their alt lines yet, I'm holding off on alt lines, but I'll be honest, I would have considered the DK 73+ +210 / 93+ +500 alt line, but maybe FD will offer more value.  If you have B365 and the lines are better than DK's, pounce now.

EDIT:   holy ****, Flowers' line's already up to 53.5 - get it now.

I'm pretty tempted by Derrick Henry's O65.5 rush yd prop, generally though I'd like to see how BAL deploys Lamar / Henry & yes the backup RB's, before committing.   No doubt prime Henry we'd be smashing, but I'm trying to stay disciplined and not overcommit early.   In the same vein, FD doesn't have rush props out for QB's, so I'm waiting on Mahomes' rush prop, which is 19.5 on DK.   BAL's run D vs. the RB's is still very stout, so not really interested in Pacheco's line in the 60's. 

TD PROPS

Noah Gray +1200 / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK (ALREADY TAKEN) - just a note that he's +750 / +12000 2+ on FD, so glad I got in here

NEW AUG 27 - Nelson Agholor +700 / +12000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD (+600 / +9000 DK) - it was between him & Isaiah Likely - but in the end, I decided to go with the biggest body WR that Lamar has a connection with.   Don't get me wrong, Rashod Bateman is going to get his snaps, but Agholor's the bigger guy that Lamar seems to look for near the RZ, and also has some deep ball connection with as well.   Just a half-stake play until we know how the BAL RZ rotation shakes out.

NEW SEP 2 - Samaje Perine +600 / +8000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK (+550 / +6000 on FD)  - he's got the McKinnon role out of the gate, which IMO is about a +350/+400 probability - so worth the half stake play. 

 

Overall, going to play the TD lines pretty conservatively Week 1 unless I'm certain of PT, so half-stake plays x2.  So that's 4.5U on TNF so far, waiting to see what FD offers me on rush props for the QB's before I make any more decisions.

WEEK 1 FRIDAY

PLAYER PROPS

Christian Watson O37.5 rec yds 2U DK, 53+ rec yds +210 1U, 71+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 90+ rec yds +1100 DK 0.5U - the ultimate boom-bust play, but it's not about talent, it's about Watson's ability to stay on the field.   When he plays, Watson gets almost 38 percent of the air yards, and a 25+ percent target share.    It's just that he's at risk of blowing a tire, and if it's early, then we're screwed.  But if you can get a full 4Q of him, with Jordan Love slinging the ball and his YAC skills and PHI's pass funnel D, this is a guy who can get into the alt lines in 1 play.    So yeah, I'm def going with the 4U 3-alt-line play here, to potentially win 12U. 

The corollary to the above play is that it's really hard to know how the pecking order with the other GB receivers goes when Watson is on the field, so I have to stay away for now.   But make no mistake, it's crazy that Watson is the guy with the lowest yard totals from Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.   On the flip side, GB has so many returning guys on D, and the PHI totals are set so high to begin with, I'm not really sure I see an immediate DK play that's worth taking now, I'd like to see FD's lines.  

TD PROPS

NEW ADDED AUG 27 - Jordan Love +700 / +10000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD -  with only Josh Jacobs and Isaiah Wilson who are healthy and comfortable in the O (Marshawn Lloyd avoiding the IR but likely inactive Week 1 <hamstring injuries 3+ weeks normal time frame>), this automatically increases the QB TD equity.   In contrast, DK has him at +370 / +3500 2+.   

 

So we've got 5U on the GB-PHI Friday game so far.

 

WEEK 1  SUN/MON
 

EARLY

NEW ADDED AUG 29 - Trey McBride O53.5 rec yds 2U DK, 74+ rec +210 1U, 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (@ BUF) -  you all know the breakout story last 2H, and it's legit.  Marvin Harrison Jr. should help lessen the extra coverage his way, and Kyler Murray should be 100 percent recovered from ACL surgery.  So yes, I'm on these numbers - which IMO are suppressed by BUF's top 10 rating vs. TE's, and 2023 ranking of top 10 pass D vs. receivers in the middle of the field.  Here's the thing though - BUF was a top 2 unit in those metrics when they had Jordan Poyer / Micah Hyde at safety, and Matt Milano at ILB - all 3 are gone, and replaced by far weaker talents (Taylor Rapp / Mike Edwards / Hamlin) at S and ILB.    Kelce burned them for 75+ & 80+ yards in his 2 games vs. the "B" unit, and I expect something similar for McBride, who belongs in the Kelce/Laporta/Hock (when healthy) tier. 

NEW ADDED AUG 29 - Kyle Pitts O42.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK (vs. PIT) - recovered from an undisclosed PCL surgery, no Arthur Smith to vulture PT/targets, and more importantly, Kirk Cousins to replace the ATL QB situation.   Pitts was #1 in TE air yards & ADOT for TE's, and deep targets last year - but betrayed by a 64% catchable target rate (Ridder/Heinecke & co.).   Yes, he's got Minkah Fitzpatrick in the backfield there, but it's just too low a number to not target.   If ppl want to go after Drake London's #'s (it's at 59.5), that's also reasonable, but with Pitts, his number is so low, it may only take 2-3 targets to hit the main #. 

That's 7U on 2 player props, but only about 3-4 SUN games have released props, so will add as the DK/FD slate fills out.

TD PROPS

EARLY

Calvin Austin III +1000 / +13000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U (PIT @ ATL - already taken from before) - nothing's changed in my assessment, Russell Wilson worries me, but Austin's the slot guy and on the field, gotta take this shot.

NEW ADDED AUG 27 - Will Mallory +1300 / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U (HOU @ IND) - on the depth chart, both Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson get listed here, but Mallory is clearly their best receiving TE.  And with news that Jelani Woods is headed to season-ending IR, I believe we'll see Mallory used more & more as the season goes on.   I'm not on the yardage props yet, as being #3 on a depth chart is tough to project, but these TD odds are worth the half-stake play.

NEW ADDED AUG 27 - Tyquan Thornton +1100 / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U (NE @ CIN) - yeah, yeah, I know - it's the NE O.    They could easily not score a TD.   It's just if they score a TD, Thornton's actually an excellent candidate to be that guy.  He's in their top 3 starting rotation, and he's by far their biggest size matchup, and the Pats use him as a runner and receiver.    Honestly, the reason I'm going half-stake is partly because of NE, but also because I'm wondering if FD will release an even bigger line.   However, if news becomes official that Thornton is a starter, this line could drop massively, so I'll take it now.   Please note - once Kendrick Bourne is healthy enough to play, we could easily see Thornton be a backup again, so this is not an every-week play.  

NEW ADDED AUG 29 - Malik Washington +700 / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD (vs. JAX) - the rookie WR is now 3rd on a 4-man depth chart, with Braxton Berrios.   OBJ is on the IR, and they only kept 4 active WR's.   He already figures to be the WR3 until OBJ returns .  Add in the fact that Washington can return kicks, and has been used already on jet sweep runs, it's clear he's in their plans.   Still, he's a rookie, so at +700 it's only a half-stake play for now.

LATE

Ben Sinnott +1000 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (WAS @ TAM) - already taken from before) - nothing's really changed - if you ever got wind Ertz was dealing with issues, it's an auto-increase to a full-stake play, but a half-stake is enough for now.

Lucas Krull +1700 / +19000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (DEN @ SEA) - NGL, this would be a full-stake play if there was even a hint of Greg Dulcich being gimpy, if you see news along that line, I'd double the play.  But for now, half-stake play given Krull has 2 TE's in theory ahead of him (but Trautman is really the blocking TE).

Audric Estime +1300 / +11000 2+ - AUG 27 - INCREASED TO 0.8U / 0.2U (DEN@SEA)  - I'm surprised that the Samaje Perine cut/trade news hasn't changed Estime's line much at all - he's the clear GL back.  With that news confirming my earlier suspicion, I'm willing to take the full-stake play.

NEW ADDED AUG 21 - Hayden Hurst +800 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U (LV@LAC) - full props to @BStanRamFan on this one, Hurst is the new Gerald Everett (DIssly is the blocking TE), so while Donald Parham isn't going away in the RZ, Everett got his fair share of RZ looks, so it's crazy that Hurst is this high while Parham is +400.   SIgn me up for the full stake play.

 

So that's 5U in TD plays for Sunday/Monday so far, on 7 players.   Mallory, Sinnott & Krull all have the potential to be awful plays because they dress but don't see any real chances, but the other 7, I'm confident in their snap share and opportunity.    There are a few more where I'm intrigued, but not at the number DK is offering now, so hoping we'll see better FD numbers. 

That's it for now, could be more Friday plays when FD releases their TD and yardage plays, but that's a decent set of additions for now.

 

 

 

Edited September 2 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Chargers released Parham that Hayden Hursts bet isn't looking too shabby.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Chargers released Parham that Hayden Hursts bet isn't looking too shabby.

Hurst is the Gerald Everett, so this was always an insane line.   I expect the line will obv drop like a rock now.

DK finally caught on, Estime is down to +850.   Still too high, but +1300 was just insane.   God, I hope it hits this week, because I suspect we won't see +500 if he does score or get GL touches.

[BStanRamFan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Chargers released Parham that Hayden Hursts bet isn't looking too shabby.

We got it at +850 on the discord, think its down to +600/+650 now👀

 

[Broncofan]

With the Packer IR news, have to add 1 TD play right away - Jordan Love +700 / +10000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD -  with only Jacobs and Isaiah Wilson who are comfortable in the O and Marshawn Lloyd avoiding the IR but likely inactive Week 1 (hamstring injuries 3+ weeks normal time frame), this automatically increases the QB TD equity.   +700 is wild with this context, with Love having rushed for 4 TD's last year, it's clearly in the range of outcomes vs. a pass funnel D, and with a thin RB corps.    By contrast, DK has Love at +370 / +3500 2+.  

Edited August 28 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

Emmanuel Wilson is now apparently RB2 in Green Bay. Currently +500 to score on B365. @Broncofan Worth a shot?

Quote

 

The Leap’s Jason Hirschhorn believes Packers RB Emanuel Wilson will start the regular season as the team’s No. 2 running back.

The Packers on Tuesday placed AJ Dillon on season-ending injured reserve. Meanwhile, rookie MarShawn Lloyd has struggled mightily and sustained a hamstring injury two weeks ago. Hirschhorn said Wilson, who had 160 yards and a touchdown on 37 rushes in the preseason, is locked in as Green Bay’s RB2. “Wilson is probably RB2 even if, say, Lloyd returns to practice before Week 1,” Hirschhorn told Rotoworld. “Lloyd has barely practiced in the last month. They almost certainly won’t put him out there for a meaningful role right away.” Josh Jacobs will start the year as the team’s lead back, but Wilson is in position to take over as the No. 1 back should Jacobs miss any time.

 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Emmanuel Wilson is now apparently RB2 in Green Bay. Currently +500 to score on B365. @Broncofan Worth a shot?

I passed on Wilson (knowing that Lloyd is almost certainly going to miss Wk1), for 3 reasons:

1.  Josh Jacobs, unlike Aaron Jones, doesn't get spelled at the GL much, if at all.

2.  When GB had Dillon miss time last year, they didn't use Wilson much, if at all, near the GL.    I had Wilson played at +1000 or longer those games, and I was very disappointed at that usage.   It's hard for me to count on Wilson being used much, knowing that Jacobs is there instead of Jones.

3.  Finally, the PHI run D, while it got leaky in the 2H (as a function of their really poor ILB play in the 2H), is still really stout in the trenches when Jalen Carter & Jordan Davis are there and fully healthy.   That's Week 1 to the best of our knowledge.

The reason I took Love at +700 was because of the above 3 factors - I would give Love about a +400 chance of scoring (as the PHI D really makes it a pass funnel D, and thus increases the chances for a scramble, or even a naked bootleg instead of a run call), and I think Wilson is about +500, so there's no perceived value.    I suspect the books were aware about Lloyd, since they usually put the 3rd RB at +700-800 range at worst.  

[Broncofan]

2 more Week 1 Sunday player props I'm adding, and no one should be surprised at the first one....

WEEK 1 SUN PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Trey McBride O53.5 rec yds 2U DK, 74+ rec +210 1U, 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (@ BUF) -  you all know the breakout story last 2H, and it's legit.  Marvin Harrison Jr. should help lessen the extra coverage his way, and Kyler Murray should be 100 percent recovered from ACL surgery.  So yes, I'm on these numbers - which IMO are suppressed by BUF's top 10 rating vs. TE's, and 2023 ranking of top 10 pass D vs. receivers and middle of the field.  Here's the thing though - BUF was a top 2 unit in those metrics when they had Jordan Poyer / Micah Hyde at safety, and Matt Milano at ILB - all 3 are gone, and replaced by far weaker talents (Taylor Rapp / Mike Edwards / Hamlin) at S and ILB.    Kelce burned them for 75+ & 80+ yards in his 2 games vs. the "B" unit, and I expect something similar for McBride, who belongs in the Kelce/Laporta/Hock (when healthy) tier. 

Kyle Pitts O42.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK (vs. PIT) - recovered from an undisclosed PCL surgery, no Arthur Smith to vulture PT/targets, and more importantly, Kirk Cousins to replace the ATL QB situation.   Pitts was #1 in TE air yards & ADOT for TE's, and deep targets last year - but betrayed by a 64% catchable target rate (Ridder/Heinecke & co.).   Yes, he's got Minkah Fitzpatrick in the backfield there, but it's just too low a number to not target.   If ppl want to go after Drake London's #'s (it's at 59.5), that's also reasonable, but with Pitts, his number is so low, it may only take 2-3 targets to hit the main #. 

 

WEEK 1 TD PROPS ADDITION

Malik Washington +700 / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD (vs. JAX) - the rookie WR is now 3rd on a 4-man depth chart, with Braxton Berrios.   OBJ is on the IR, and they only kept 4 active WR's.   He already figures to be the WR3 until OBJ returns .  Add in the fact that Washington can return kicks, and has been used already on jet sweep runs, it's clear he's in their plans.   Still, he's a rookie, so at +700 it's only a half-stake play for now.

 

DK has put out a few SUN player props, and I'm intrigued by 2-3 (London is one of them), but I do want to see if FD will come out with better lines, before I dive in.      

[adamq]

@Broncofan any thoughts on this rookie WR Vele? I don't know much about him other than he's a monster at 6'5" 210 and could be the RZ guy.. Brandon Johnson cashed for us a few times last year IIRC

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, adamq said:

@Broncofan any thoughts on this rookie WR Vele? I don't know much about him other than he's a monster at 6'5" 210 and could be the RZ guy.. Brandon Johnson cashed for us a few times last year IIRC

He’s one to watch for.   But keep in mind Payton doesn’t bring in rookies quickly at the receiver position.   NO history is littered with this.   Marvin Mims last year.    It’s why I go 2nd receiving TE / GL RB with Krull & Estime.   That’s also the way to exploit the SEA D.  

Edited August 30 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

One big TD prop disclaimer this year - FD is not crediting ST TD to the D.  Has to be a D TD.   Basically makes it almost unplayable there.   

Edited August 30 by Broncofan

[The BILLievers]

Lock of Week 1 = Bills over 27.5 points at home vs the Cardinals D.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Kind of niche but i like Jaguars and Dolphins to each score 9+ 1H points at +100. Better price than both to score 20 so I’ll take 1 TD and FG(XP irrelevant) 

Miamis offense in warm weather is incredible and their defense is wrecked

Jacksonvilles defense wont be able to hold Miami down all half and their offense should be good enough to score

Total is 49.5 and half total 24.5. 9 each feels solid