SmittyBacall Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 @Broncofan Thoughts on Jaxon Smith-Njigba ladder? 44.5 receiving yards. Can we expect Surtain to shadow Metcalf? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 3 hours ago, BStanRamFan said: If you can snag Blake Corum at +250 or better to score a TD you should do that. Got +275 on DK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Double post. But I have a play for Brian Robinson to get 50+ rushing yards. He's still the 1st and 2nd down guy I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Also, I was debating this earlier, but the release of todays depth chart solidifies it for me. Taking Drew Sample, listed as TE1, to score +1100. I'll admit he's been pretty inept as a receiver in years past, but he made some strides last year and was more involved down the stretch. He's our 11-personnel TE and a PA target near the goal line. Tanner Hudson (+550) and Erick All (+750) both provide worse value and will both see significantly less snaps, if any at all. Worth a shot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: Also, I was debating this earlier, but the release of todays depth chart solidifies it for me. Taking Drew Sample, listed as TE1, to score +1100. I'll admit he's been pretty inept as a receiver in years past, but he made some strides last year and was more involved down the stretch. He's our 11-personnel TE and a PA target near the goal line. Tanner Hudson (+550) and Erick All (+750) both provide worse value and will both see significantly less snaps, if any at all. Worth a shot. he's +1700 on fanduel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 9 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: he's +1700 on fanduel It's juicy for sure. It should probably be floating around +700. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 (edited) 8 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: @Broncofan Thoughts on Jaxon Smith-Njigba ladder? 44.5 receiving yards. Can we expect Surtain to shadow Metcalf? He’s done it before but the other option would be to bracket him with our other CB and safety help. It’s not a lock he shadows DK the whole time, his shadow rate is about 60+ percent of snaps. The thing about DEN is that after the MIA game they were a top 10 D by DVOA - but the first 4 games were so awful that they were last in cumulative DVOA until about WK15 lol. The TE and RB are the huge exploit matchups until we find ILB’s who can cover in space. JSN number is so low I don’t mind it at all but just keep the above in mind. Sample +1700 is awesome btw. Edited September 4 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 9 hours ago, MikeT14 said: Double post. But I have a play for Brian Robinson to get 50+ rushing yards. He's still the 1st and 2nd down guy I think. I like him alot still, tough matchup but Daniels should allow him to get some lanes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Was Chase ruled out? I see Bengals are now 7.5 point favorites Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Not ruled out but it’s Tuesday and still holding in. Chances of him play get slimmer as each day goes by. Which is probably why the line has dropped. Even if he does play at this point. How much could he even play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Since 2002, QB's taken #1 overall are 0-14-1 in their debut games. @N4L @Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 11 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Was Chase ruled out? I see Bengals are now 7.5 point favorites Not officially, but it seems to be affecting the line. I still think there’s a strong chance we get the deal done by Sunday, but at this point his snaps will likely be significantly limited. Regardless, if the Bengals are serious SB contenders they should have no issue beating NE by 10+ points without Chase. I’ll happily play -7.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, NYRaider said: Since 2002, QB's taken #1 overall are 0-14-1 in their debut games. @N4L @Broncofan Yeah I saw that, but here's the thing - every one of those picks was a team that was so bad they earned the final pick, or they were bad enough to be close enough to trade up. Chicago fell into 1.1 - and their D is top 10, the OL play has really improved, and we know the skill position upgrades they got outside of QB. When looking at trends, 3 Q's apply: -Is there enough of a sample size? In football terms, that's not a bad one at all. -Is there an explanation beyond random chance? I think the explanation above is hard to dispute, so let's go yes. -Does the same explanation apply to my case here? That's the rub. CHI isn't close to the group of past 1.1 teams here. Teams that qualify for 1.1 usually are so bad, the 1.1 pick is far from good enough to make a difference in year 1, let alone Week 1. In CHI's case though, Caleb doesn't even need to be a savior yet - he just needs to be functional enough to make the league-average plays for CHI to cover this week, and succeed in general. The final part to the equation - TEN's O is also on a new system / HC / OC. Against CHI's D, that's a massive problem. CHI at 1.1 is a unicorn situation - QB was a massive reason they finished at the 10 spot. Their OL play was actually OK, and their D was excellent. QB really killed them last year (and lack of WR skill outside of Moore didn't help, but mostly it was on the QB). Given CHI filled their 2 biggest holes in a big way, I don't mind standing against the trend here, given I don't see CHI as nearly the same as any of the 1.1 teams before. Edited September 4 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 (edited) 12 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Was Chase ruled out? I see Bengals are now 7.5 point favorites 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: Not officially, but it seems to be affecting the line. I still think there’s a strong chance we get the deal done by Sunday, but at this point his snaps will likely be significantly limited. Regardless, if the Bengals are serious SB contenders they should have no issue beating NE by 10+ points without Chase. I’ll happily play -7.5. There are seldom any non-QB players (Aaron Donald might be one of the few examples) who are worth moving the line 2-3 points on a game line. That applies 10x to WR's. Especially with a team that has time to prepare to play without said player. It's a bigger problem when the injury happens in-game. Ppl mistake the latter situation's impact to known pre-game absences. You give a team 1-2 weeks to prepare for no Chase, that's very different than losing him in-game, or the day before, when there's no prep time. You gotta believe CIN is giving everyone snaps to play the positions if Chase isn't active. If CIN can get to -7, I'd gladly hop on board. Hopefully Chase keeps staying away for another day or (that last 0.5 is a big hook ngl lol). Edited September 4 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 20 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Also, I was debating this earlier, but the release of todays depth chart solidifies it for me. Taking Drew Sample, listed as TE1, to score +1100. I'll admit he's been pretty inept as a receiver in years past, but he made some strides last year and was more involved down the stretch. He's our 11-personnel TE and a PA target near the goal line. Tanner Hudson (+550) and Erick All (+750) both provide worse value and will both see significantly less snaps, if any at all. Worth a shot. More Bengals props released this morning (still waiting on Chase's status to see the majority of receiving lines). Chase Brown over 13.5 receiving yards. Even in a game where we are expected to hold the lead, this is too low for a guy who will see 50% of the snaps and at least 2 screens. He's explosive enough to cover this in one catch, and can realistically house it from anywhere on the field. Also, it's worth taking into account that no Chase means game planning to get other players involved and more opportunities elsewhere. Also taking the receiving milestones at +25 (+260) and +50 (+1300). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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