JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 5 hours ago, Broncofan said: Yeah I saw that, but here's the thing - every one of those picks was a team that was so bad they earned the final pick, or they were bad enough to be close enough to trade up. Chicago fell into 1.1 - and their D is top 10, the OL play has really improved, and we know the skill position upgrades they got outside of QB. When looking at trends, 3 Q's apply: -Is there enough of a sample size? In football terms, that's not a bad one at all. -Is there an explanation beyond random chance? I think the explanation above is hard to dispute, so let's go yes. -Does the same explanation apply to my case here? That's the rub. CHI isn't close to the group of past 1.1 teams here. Teams that qualify for 1.1 usually are so bad, the 1.1 pick is far from good enough to make a difference in year 1, let alone Week 1. In CHI's case though, Caleb doesn't even need to be a savior yet - he just needs to be functional enough to make the league-average plays for CHI to cover this week, and succeed in general. The final part to the equation - TEN's O is also on a new system / HC / OC. Against CHI's D, that's a massive problem. CHI at 1.1 is a unicorn situation - QB was a massive reason they finished at the 10 spot. Their OL play was actually OK, and their D was excellent. QB really killed them last year (and lack of WR skill outside of Moore didn't help, but mostly it was on the QB). Given CHI filled their 2 biggest holes in a big way, I don't mind standing against the trend here, given I don't see CHI as nearly the same as any of the 1.1 teams before. I made the exact same argument when my friend mentioned it to me. Chicago is far from the typically awful #1 overall pick having team 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 used a free bet on a SGP of Kyler 195+ pass yards, Michael Wilson 35+ rec yards, and o 39.5 at +200 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Starting to think the bet n get promo isnt happening this year besides BetRivers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 (edited) Ja’Tavion Sanders currently +650 to score. EDIT: Ian Thomas already ruled out. Tremble dealing with back/hamstring issues. Potential for both to miss week 1. EDIT2: Tremble missed practice again Thursday. Availability for Sunday now in doubt. Edited September 5 by SmittyBacall 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 https://www.scoresandodds.com/prop-bets/981992/drew-sample Great little tool, several similar websites are out there but this is the best I've found for NFL. Covers.com is great for NBA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Devaughn Vele +1400 to score on Cesar's I'm playing a half stake I feel like he should be at +700 for his size alone add the fact that he's a 26 year old rookie his transition to the league might be smoother than we think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 cesars bet $5 on football get $50 in bonus bets best promo I've seen tbh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Thoughts on GB/PHI tomorrow? I have some money on GB ML. @N4L @Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 2 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Thoughts on GB/PHI tomorrow? I have some money on GB ML. @N4L @Broncofan I like the over 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 5 hours ago, NYRaider said: Thoughts on GB/PHI tomorrow? I have some money on GB ML. @N4L @Broncofan I lean that way as well. The key to a PHI win is how their DL plays vs. GB’s excellent OL. Because the GB WR are a problem for PHI secondary. Gettinh pressure on Love is the easiest way to negate that. GB’s OL is really good though. Why I think Love will thrive. PHI’s stud WR should never be discounted and I think we’re going to see Saquon Barkley have a ton of success with that OL. But Kelce retirement and more reads now on Jalen Hurts, that gives me pause. Continuity-wise PHI is the team with a new system and OC/DC. Kelce’s retirement is really big. So I do lean GB ML. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Added 2 plays to Watson rec yds & Love TD plays tonight: GB ML +110 2U - reasons given above. Saquon Barkley o16.5 rec yds 2U - the 25+ yard alt line isn’t being offered on FD and DK/Bodog’s aren’t great. If you can get 25+ in the +200 range on B365 it’s worth it IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 On 9/5/2024 at 10:31 AM, thebestever6 said: cesars bet $5 on football get $50 in bonus bets best promo I've seen tbh. ummm what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 23 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: ummm what? yea cesars if you bet $5 you get 5 $10 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Just now, thebestever6 said: yea cesars if you bet $5 you get 5 $10 bets. not where I am sadly Looks like Caesars and FD arent doing that Bet $50 on a SB winner, get $5 free bets for every win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: Added 2 plays to Watson rec yds & Love TD plays tonight: GB ML +110 2U - reasons given above. Saquon Barkley o16.5 rec yds 2U - the 25+ yard alt line isn’t being offered on FD and DK/Bodog’s aren’t great. If you can get 25+ in the +200 range on B365 it’s worth it IMO. +160 barkley I'll pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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