Weekly Bets Thread

[JonStark]

Screw the NFC East.

[Broncofan]

12 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

cousins missed a wide open McLeod td

Strange in the EZ (horrible throw by Lawrence), Moreau TD called back, & Mcleod miss (plus Mcleod got DPI'd in EZ with no-call...oh well).    Way it goes.

Such promise with the SUN player props, but a bad ATS / ML week & goose egg on TD props means it's -4.1U week.   Really unfortunate MNF - Saquon Barkley was 1 yard short of alt line (RUN THE BALL ON 3RD SIRIANNI to drain the clock WTF), Drake London was 3 yards short of main line, Bijan Robinson 2 yards short of main line (negative yardage on his last catch cost dearly), and Devonta Smith 2 yards short of alt line.   Literally 14U of swings on MNF....oh well.

WEEK 2 RECAP

ATS/ML - 5-6-2, -1U (WK 2 - 2-4, -3U)

PLAYER PROPS - 15-17, -27.6U (WK 2 - 10-4, +5.4U - MNF such a killer from a monster week)

TD PROPS - 1-20, -6.5U  (WK 2 - 0-8, Moreau, Mcleod, Strange and Pruitt all had their chances....dammit) - <WK 1 - Mason +850 WK 2 - nil>)

 

Stings to have the 2nd negative return in 2 weeks, but the player prop calls were for the most part really solid (Wandale Robinson stands out - bad O, bad team, unclear pecking order.....lesson re-learned).   

 

SUMMARY - -35.1U  stake (WK 1 - -31U <OUCH> WK 2 - -4.1U), 116U stake

Edited Tuesday at 01:02 PM by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK, so on to WK3, and going to continue to lean on the new trends towards more rushing, and short-area pass work...

 

WEEK 3 TNF

ATS/ML 

Don't really like any plays here, if anything I'd consider the under, but 37.5 is just so low.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Rhamondre Stephenson O65.5 rush yds 2U, 85+ rush yds +220 1U DK @ NYJ - NE's OL is struggling against the pass (pressures on half the throws), but they're thriving in the run game.     This pretty much makes Rhamondre the obvious play. 

Hunter Henry O32.5 rec yds 2U, 46+ rec yds +200 1U, 70+ rec yds +650 0.5U - the Jets CB's are their lock-down unit, but they're always most vulnerable to TE.    Henry's the #1 target for Brissett, and with the OL issues, short area passes are where NE will go.   I was tempted to take Stephenson's rec yd line, but he's been used sparingly there, I have to back off for now

Breece Hall O67.5 rush yds 2U, 86+ rush yds +210 1U DK vs. NE - twice in past 2 weeks, I've been considering rush vs. rec props for RB's, and twice the rush prop has been the smash spot (I went rec x 2 lol).    If Hall goes HAM as a receiver, I'll be sad, but I can't deny the trend to more running.   With NE losing MLB Bentley, I'm going with the belief that NYJ will give Hall chances to break a big one.   If they committed to Hall for 15-18 rushes, he may get it on volume alone, but the home run threat without Bentley to call the D and fill the gap, it's worth the play.

So that's 10.5U on 3 player props....NGL, it's pretty ugly otherwise.   Garrett Wilson got locked by C-Gonzalez for <50 yards both games, so not really tempted by his mid 60's prop (and DK Metcalf only got 24 of his 108 yards on C-Gonzalez, so that's a stay away). 

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Hunter Henry +500 FD (waiting for possible 50% TNF TD boost for 0.8U play) / +6500 2-TD 0.2U FD (+425 / +3500 2+ on DK lol) -  I'm willing to play this down to +400, but given FD has offered 50% TD boosts on Thursdays, I'm willing to wait and see if I can get this past +600 with a boost.  If not, still willing to take the TD prop here, and frankly, the 2-TD has insane value on FD compared to DK/other books. 

Austin Hooper +1800 TheScore (+1200 FD) / +40000 2+ TheScore (+10000 2+ on DK, no FD 2-TD) 0.4U / 0.1U - the other TE in NE, who does get RZ snaps.   I like Henry a lot more at his number, but can't deny that Henry & Hooper likely own most of the TD equity

If the Jets lose their 2nd CB DJ Reed, there is probably one TD prop I'll consider, but for now, we're good.    So that's 12U on TNF, which is a lot...but I feel like I'm on the guys who will get all the work, and continuing my work on the short pass / run game.   BOL!

Edited 5 hours ago by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

With Andy Dalton at the helm, it looks like Diontae Johnson is back on the menu, boys. Anything around 45 receiving yards will be a healthy play. 

 

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

With Andy Dalton at the helm, it looks like Diontae Johnson is back on the menu, boys. Anything around 45 receiving yards will be a healthy play. 

 

 

 

 

 

Bryce Young was absymal again with pressure on only 5 of 29 dropbacks.  FIVE.

It's incredibly rare to see a situation where Andy Dalton is this massive upgrade...but this is one of those times.   Fire Diontae up for 3.5U as long as the prop is in the 40's (and right now, I'd have to think it will be in the 30's lol). 

Edited Tuesday at 02:37 PM by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

 

Bryce Young was absymal again with pressure on only 5 of 29 dropbacks.  FIVE.

It's incredibly rare to see a situation where Andy Dalton is this massive upgrade...but this is one of those times.   Fire Diontae up for 3.5U as long as the prop is in the 40's (and right now, I'd have to think it will be in the 30's lol). 

Wow! I just assumed Bryce had been pressured a lot but that makes the situation for worse. Kinda feel for him bc he's a good dude but that's not acceptable

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 9/15/2024 at 4:39 PM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

If Houston and Philadelphia win, it will be a bad but not miserable week

Edit: i actually just need Philly ML for bets but Houston for some survivor stuff

Well that sucked 

[Broncofan]

OK so a small amount of props are out, but there several games where the line is on the hook, and I think the movement is going towards the teams I want to take, so I'm going to lock 5 games in now...here goes (and will update this post with additions as they go along):

 

WEEK 3

ATS/ML
 

NO -2.5 vs. PHI - we have a rest advantage, at home, and more importantly, no AJ Brown for PHI on O.   That makes it a much easier job to contain their pass game, and NO is better at run D than ATL or GB were.    When NO has the ball, PHI D can't get pressure, their DL is not stopping the run, and they can't cover that well.    The lack of pressure is huge, because pressure is what gets Derek Carr in trouble.  If you can't pressure him, he'll find an open guy from Olave/Shaheed.   Because PHI can't stop the run, that creates big opps for Alvin Kamara to wear the D out over time.     I think this is more likely a 6-7 pt win, and if I'm under the important 3-pt hook, I'll take this play.

LAC +105 ML @ PIT - I know, Chargers on early game and in East Coast.  But here's the thing - Jim Harbaugh had the team stay over in the East Cost in North Carolina, and practice all week (with team-building during the evenings), then go to PIT.  That's a huge way to negate the East Coast travel effect.   I'm not sold the Chargers D is as good as the first 2 weeks suggest, but I'm also not convinced the PIT O is significantly better, either.  Justin Fields has protected the ball and offered a run game threat, so if the PIT D can create TO's, it swings to their favor.   But here's the thing - Joe Alt at RT and Rashawn Slater as bookend T's, have allowed 3 pressures total in the 2 games (including Maxx Crosby, who tore BAL apart).    Ultimately, in a TO-neutral game, I trust Justin Herbert 10x more than Fields.

CHI +100 ML @ IND - if both teams were at full strength, I'd probably just avoid this game.  But there isn't a level playing field here - Indy lost their all-world slot CB and best outside CB on Week 1, and now lost their all-world DT Buckner to IR after Week 2, and Paye / S Blackmon (missed GB game) are both hurting, and Blackmon at the very least looks iffy to return.   Those losses have turned IND's D into a sieve.    Add in CHI's opportunistic D, and this is a game I think CHI wins by 4+ pts, so I have to take the ML.

SEA -4.5 vs. MIA - Skylar Thompson at QB is a big reason I'm going here.  But it's more than that - SEA's run game is going to pose huge problems for MIA, and Ryan Grubb's O has really emphasized getting the ball to DK Metcalf (and JSN/Lockett, but DK as the alpha) when they throw.   Jalen Ramsey is still coming off injury, and it shows.    On the flip side, the SEA CB's really can lock down MIA's WR's, or at least limit the damage....and that really hurts MIA, given how top-2 WR dependent they are for their O.  Other key stat - SEA has 59 pressures in TWO games (yes it's DEN & NE, this pace is unsustainable, but against MIA's OL, SEA's pass rush will bring the heat early & often).    Unless they let Achane go HAM, I'm pretty comfortable with even a 6.5 pt spread, TBH.

DET -2.5 @ ARI - Kyler Murray was great last week, but LAR has generated the lowest pressure rates except for WAS and NE IIRC.    Aidan Hutchinson & crew won't be as accommodating, and we've seen what happens to Kyler when he's getting pressure in his kitchen.   On the flip side, ARI's run D improvements are mostly mirage IMO, the LAR OL was literally down 3, if not 4 starters, and lost in-game talent.   DET's top 3 OL is going to dominate, in a get-right game where I think OC Ben Johnson decides it's time to run 35x with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.  

 

So that's 5U for ATS/ML plays, haven't decided on SNF/MNF yet.   I got a free play, and so I'm taking all 5 plays combined, along with SF/CLE/BUF ML, for a +6500 YOLO 0.4U free play parley.  

 

 

PLAYER PROPS 

 

EARLY

Najee Harris O53.5 rush yds 2U, 71+ rush yds +220 1U, 86+ rush yds +450 0.5U  DK vs. LAC - even though I'm taking the LAC ML, I can't deny that Harris the run game workhorse with the Steelers.  As such, this number is just too low.  I have Harris' median project at 15/65+, so I have to go here.

George Pickens O48.5 rec yds, 66+ rec yds +200 1U, 90+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. LAC - speaking of workhorses, Pickens is seeing almost 40% of their targets, and 60+% of their air yards.    LAC doesn't have a shutdown corner like DEN's PS2, who kept Pickens throttled last week for 2/29, but also with a couple of penalties.   

DJ Moore O60.5 rec yds 2U DK, 81+ rec yds +210 DK, 100+ rec yds +450 0.5U @ IND - with IND's CB situation, and Keenan Allen unlikely to play again this week - I expect Moore to go HAM this week.   He and Caleb Williams are starting to get more in sync, and he was an absolute target hog vs. HOU, with Allen dealing with plantar fasciitis, this really sets up as a huge game for him.   

 

ADDED SEPT 20 - Alvin Kamara O64.5 rush yds 2U, 81+ rush yds +200 1U, 101+ rush yds +450 0.5U DK vs. PHI - PHI's run D is in shambles, and I don't see an easy fix.   In a game that I have NO leading, this sets up for a ton of Kamara to close this out.   Getting the gamescript is key, because if NO is trailing, we see more Kamara pass work, but if NO is leading, then it's the ground game.   

 

ADDED SEPT 20 - Rasheed Shaheed O48.5 rec yds / 66+ rec yds +210 1U / 90+ rec yds 0.5U DK vs. PHI - the other problem, PHI can't cover, and they give up both YAC and chunk plays.  Who does that sound like?  Yessir, it's my boy Shaheed.   The thing is, Shaheed's short pass usage has spiked with Klint Kubiak's new scheme, so he doesn't need to hit a 50+ yarder to break the props anymore - if anything, blowouts have limited the NO O from piling on the yards.  So against a tasty D matchup, I do want both Shaheed and Kamara props this week.

ADDED SEPT 20 - Jerry Jeudy O40.5 rec yds, 56+ rec yds +210, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U vs. NYG - I'm a little worried that CLE might just run the ball 50x against the G-men, but I can't deny that Jeudy is the clear #2 target with no Njoku, and in fact the most efficient receiver on CLE so far.  I do wonder if there's a physical issue with Amari Cooper.  Still, if it is that, then Jeudy's only going to continue to dominate. 

ADDED SEPT 20 PM - Tony Pollard O59.5 rush yds 2U , 80+ rush yds +220 1U, 100+ rush yds +550 0.5U DK vs. GB  - Tyjae Spears missed pratice today after injuring his ankle, this sets up like a dream matchup given GB's inability to stop the run

 

LATE 

Zay Flowers O53.5 rec yds 2U DK, 72+ rec yds +200 1U, 90+ rec yds +400 0.5U DK @DAL - for better or worse, Flowers has become the BAL centerpiece in their short passing game.   DAL doesn't really have a shutdown CB, they try to prey on mistakes, but in turn they give up chunk plays too.  BAL's OL let Maxx Crosby go nuts, and so they had to pepper Flowers in short-intermediate area, I expect the same with DAL's pressure pass rush.    Will be going 3.5U 2-alt lines here as well once they are out.

ADDED SEPT 20 - David Montgomery O52.5 rush yds 2U, 66+ rush yds +200 1U, 90+ rush yds +600 0.5U @ ARI - Jared Goff threw the ball 55x vs. TAM's pass funnel D...and DET lost the game.   DET has a top 3 OL, Monty & Gibbs, and ARI's run D was the worst in the league in 2023.  What's changed?  Well, not much - BUF's game was mitigated by 25MPH winds, so ARI could stack the box for half the game, and then BUF got 17 pts down, and had to play catch up.    LAR had 4 starting OL missing, no Kupp or Puka (Kupp left early) and so nothing was working.   I would be SHOCKED if Ben Johnson didn't call up 35 runs, and in that scenario, we know Monty gets 20 carries.  You give Monty 20 carries, he's getting to 80-90 yards almost every time. 

ADDED SEPT 20 - Jahmyr Gibbs O49.5 rush yds, 70+ rush yds +280 1U, 90+ rush yds +700 - what I said about Monty applies just as much to Gibbs, who is getting his 12-15 carries, and 5-6 passes a game.     With his elusiveness, I think he has a higher ceiling, but he may see less rush work overall than Monty.   Still, I think DET wins by more than 1 score here, and they do so by leaning on the run game, and making life miserable for Kyler Murray.   So if I'm wrong, this could all go up in flames spectacularly, but if I'm right and DET wins by more than 1 score, then the run game is going to go HAM.   

SNF

ADDED SEPT 20 - Bijan Robinson O72.5 rush yds 2U, 91+ rush yds +210 1U DK vs. KC - no mystery here, I may in fact go with the risk 6U play and double up on his rec yds play as well.   With KC, they limit the deep pass game, and concede run & short pass game.    Even with Tyler Allgier taking about 20-25 percent of the work, I have Bijan at 18-80+ as his median projection, so have to take this.    Playable IMO to 80+ yards here IMO for the main line, so I'm getting in for 1 alt line as well. 

ADDED SEPT 20 - Rashee Rice O70.5 rec yds, 91+ rec yds +210 1U @ ATL - with Isaiah Pacheco injured, there's going to be even more focus on the KC short passing game.    I'm considering taking Kelce as well at that ridiculously low #, but I'm going with the target hog, who gets a decent amount of slot work (so avoids complete AJ Terrell shadow coverage).    I have a median projection of 6/80 for Rice, so worth 1 alt line.

 

I still would like to see D'onta Foreman rush props (with Ford set in the high 40's, Foreman's should be awesome, 30 or less) as well as SEA RB props with the leaky MIA run D coming to town.  As always, it's about the set lines vs. the implied value.    On the flip side, with an O46.5 opener, I'm going to see if the public will push Diontae Johnson's # donw.    That's enough for now, so let's hope for a great day with the RB's on the ground, and big days from Shaheed, Flowers, DJ Moore, Diontae J, Jeudy & Pickens (and Rice in prime time).  

 

 

LONGSHOT TD

OK some TD props are coming in, so it's time to add some immediate values that I see:

 

WEEK 3 LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Justin Herbert +850 FD / +12000 + (+850 / +11000 2+ on DK) 0.8U / 0.2U @ PIT - yes, I know he's the franchise and had the rib injury last year.  But here's the thing - Jim Harbaugh lets the QB run.   Herbert actually kept the ball on RPO's at least 2x, if not 3x.    And with the Chargers being so run-focused, if they get close to the GL, a RPO keeper (or a QB sneak at the 1) is very much in the realm of outcomes.   As long as the odds are this high, I'm taking the shot.

Hayden Hurst +700 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U (+650 / +9000 2+ on DK) 0.8U / 0.2U @ PHI - The books have Will Dissly at +500 to +550, but it's Hurst who runs the routes.   I'll definitely take the shot at these numbers again. 

Mycole Pruitt +1900 FD / +20000 2+ TheScore (DK not up yet) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC  - remember, he was out there when PIT was inside the 5, and running the EZ route short when Fields hit TE3 Washington for the corner flag.   At these numbers, worth the half-stake play.

Lil' Jordan Humphrey +1300 FD (EDIT SEPT 20 PM - on HOLD, CASHED OUT) / 2-TD pending (no DK or Score) 0.4U / 0.1U @ TAM - the only reason I'm not going full-stake is I don't know if DeVaughn Vele sits again.  If he does, Lil' Jordan becomes the big slot.  If you hear Vele is active, take his +850 / +10000 2+ prop, because TAM's slot CB is who you attack.    The moment I get confirmation Vele is out, this becomes a full-stake play.  EDIT SEPT 20 PM - Vele returned to practice, so I cashed out here, worst case I think the odds will only increase.  I did take Vele +900 0.4U; if he's inactive, it will void, if he plays, he has that tasty slot WR vs. TAM CB that has killed their D.

Theo Johnson +700 / +12000 2+ FD (+600 / +8000 2+ on DK) 0.4U / 0.1U @ CLE - he's now the NYG #1 TE, getting almost 80 percent of the snaps, and all the targets.  CLE's stingy D and Danny Jones are why it's only a half-stake play.

Juwan Johnson +500 / +9500 2+ FD (+370 / +4500 on DK) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. PHI - Foster Moreau still sees more snaps and they pretty much split their RZ time...which makes it tough to take more than a half-stake play.    But until Juwan starts getting 70+ percent of the targets, at best it's a half-stake play.  But with PHI's leaky pass D in town, have to get a piece of the action here. 

De'Andre Carter +700 / +13000 2+ FD (DK +500 / +6500 2+) 0.4U / 0.1U @ IND - Carter's the clear #3 WR while Keenan Allen is out.   I thought Collin Johnson would get some RZ work, but that wasn't case.   I can only go a half-stake here because Carter's not a big RZ guy, but the IND pass D is so bad, you have to get a piece of the action at +700.  

 

LATE 

Nothing that really stands out

 

SNF

Noah Gray +750 DK (WAITING FOR FD/SCORE) / +9000 2+ DK (WAITING) @ ATL - Gray keeps getting regular work as the TE2, so I have to keep taking half-stake shots at these #'s.   I will say I have his odds for TD at about +500 (20 percent), so this is the threshold for value (50 percent above implied).   For this reason, I'm going to wait to see if FD/The Score will offer better odds.

 

 I'm sad to see Foster Moreau at +275, Jordan Whittington at +295, Brenton Strange at +310, and Ray Davis at +400, the books fixed those out-of-line odds, doubt we'll sniff the crazy wide odds we had before.

So that's 5U in 7 plays for now, looking out on Vele injury news in DEN before I go full-stake on Humphrey, or add Vele if he's going.    BOL everyone!

 

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK some TD props are coming in, so it's time to add some immediate values that I see:

 

WEEK 3 LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Justin Herbert +850 FD / +12000 + (+850 / +11000 2+ on DK) 0.8U / 0.2U @ PIT - yes, I know he's the franchise and had the rib injury last year.  But here's the thing - Jim Harbaugh lets the QB run.   Herbert actually kept the ball on RPO's at least 2x, if not 3x.    And with the Chargers being so run-focused, if they get close to the GL, a RPO keeper (or a QB sneak at the 1) is very much in the realm of outcomes.   As long as the odds are this high, I'm taking the shot.

Hayden Hurst +700 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U (+650 / +9000 2+ on DK) 0.8U / 0.2U  @ PHI - The books have Will Dissly at +500 to +550, but it's Hurst who runs the routes.   I'll definitely take the shot at these numbers again. 

Mycole Pruitt +1900 FD / +20000 2+ TheScore (DK not up yet) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC  - remember, he was out there when PIT was inside the 5, and running the EZ route short when Fields hit TE3 Washington for the corner flag.   At these numbers, worth the half-stake play.

Lil' Jordan Humphrey +1300 FD (EDIT SEPT 20 PM - on HOLD, CASHED OUT) / 2-TD pending (no DK or Score) 0.4U / 0.1U @ TAM - the only reason I'm not going full-stake is I don't know if DeVaughn Vele sits again.  If he does, Lil' Jordan becomes the big slot.  If you hear Vele is active, take his +850 / +10000 2+ prop, because TAM's slot CB is who you attack.    The moment I get confirmation Vele is out, this becomes a full-stake play.  EDIT SEPT 20 PM - Vele returned to practice, so I cashed out here, worst case I think the odds will only increase.  I did take Devaughn Vele +900 FD / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U/0.1U @ TAM becuase if he's inactive, it will void, if he plays, he has that tasty slot WR vs. TAM CB that has killed their D.

Theo Johnson +700 / +12000 2+ FD (+600 / +8000 2+ on DK) 0.4U / 0.1U @ CLE - he's now the NYG #1 TE, getting almost 80 percent of the snaps, and all the targets.  CLE's stingy D and Danny Jones are why it's only a half-stake play.

Juwan Johnson +500 / +9500 2+ FD (+370 / +4500 on DK) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. PHI - Foster Moreau still sees more snaps and they pretty much split their RZ time...which makes it tough to take more than a half-stake play.    But until Juwan starts getting 70+ percent of the targets, at best it's a half-stake play.  But with PHI's leaky pass D in town, have to get a piece of the action here. 

De'Andre Carter +700 / +13000 2+ FD (DK +500 / +6500 2+) 0.4U / 0.1U @ IND - Carter's the clear #3 WR while Keenan Allen is out.   I thought Collin Johnson would get some RZ work, but that wasn't case.   I can only go a half-stake here because Carter's not a big RZ guy, but the IND pass D is so bad, you have to get a piece of the action at +700.  

 

LATE 

Nothing that really stands out

 

SNF

Noah Gray +750 DK (FD / Score - +700) / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ ATL - Gray keeps getting regular work as the TE2, so I have to keep taking half-stake shots at these #'s.   I will say I have his odds for TD at about +500 (20 percent), so this is the threshold for value (50 percent above implied).   For this reason, I'm going to wait to see if FD/The Score will offer better odds.

 

So that's 5U in 7 plays for now, looking out on Vele injury news in DEN before I go full-stake on Humphrey, or add Vele if he's going.     Main card updated, BOL everyone!

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Well, I'm almost done WK3 on a WED, because there are some amazing value player props, I only have a couple of guys whose props haven't been released, so here are the additions....

EARLY

ADDED SEPT 20 - Alvin Kamara O64.5 rush yds 2U, 81+ rush yds +200 1U, 101+ rush yds +450 0.5U DK vs. PHI - PHI's run D is in shambles, and I don't see an easy fix.   In a game that I have NO leading, this sets up for a ton of Kamara to close this out.   Getting the gamescript is key, because if NO is trailing, we see more Kamara pass work, but if NO is leading, then it's the ground game.   

 

ADDED SEPT 20 - Rasheed Shaheed O48.5 rec yds / 66+ rec yds +210 1U / 90+ rec yds 0.5U DK vs. PHI - the other problem, PHI can't cover, and they give up both YAC and chunk plays.  Who does that sound like?  Yessir, it's my boy Shaheed.   The thing is, Shaheed's short pass usage has spiked with Klint Kubiak's new scheme, so he doesn't need to hit a 50+ yarder to break the props anymore - if anything, blowouts have limited the NO O from piling on the yards.  So against a tasty D matchup, I do want both Shaheed and Kamara props this week.

ADDED SEPT 20 - Jerry Jeudy O40.5 rec yds, 56+ rec yds +210, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U vs. NYG - I'm a little worried that CLE might just run the ball 50x against the G-men, but I can't deny that Jeudy is the clear #2 target with no Njoku, and in fact the most efficient receiver on CLE so far.  I do wonder if there's a physical issue with Amari Cooper.  Still, if it is that, then Jeudy's only going to continue to dominate. 

 

LATE 

ADDED SEPT 20 - David Montgomery O52.5 rush yds 2U, 66+ rush yds +200 1U, 90+ rush yds +600 0.5U @ ARI - Jared Goff threw the ball 55x vs. TAM's pass funnel D...and DET lost the game.   DET has a top 3 OL, Monty & Gibbs, and ARI's run D was the worst in the league in 2023.  What's changed?  Well, not much - BUF's game was mitigated by 25MPH winds, so ARI could stack the box for half the game, and then BUF got 17 pts down, and had to play catch up.    LAR had 4 starting OL missing, no Kupp or Puka (Kupp left early) and so nothing was working.   I would be SHOCKED if Ben Johnson didn't call up 35 runs, and in that scenario, we know Monty gets 20 carries.  You give Monty 20 carries, he's getting to 80-90 yards almost every time. 

ADDED SEPT 20 - Jahmyr Gibbs O49.5 rush yds, 70+ rush yds +280 1U, 90+ rush yds +700 - what I said about Monty applies just as much to Gibbs, who is getting his 12-15 carries, and 5-6 passes a game.     With his elusiveness, I think he has a higher ceiling, but he may see less rush work overall than Monty.   Still, I think DET wins by more than 1 score here, and they do so by leaning on the run game, and making life miserable for Kyler Murray.   So if I'm wrong, this could all go up in flames spectacularly, but if I'm right and DET wins by more than 1 score, then the run game is going to go HAM.   

 

I still would like to see Tony Pollard rush props, and D'onta Foreman rush props (with Ford set in the high 40's, Foreman's should be awesome, 30 or less).   And of course, I haven't forgotten about Diontae Johnson.    Still, that's enough for now, so let's hope for a great day with the RB's on the ground, and big days from Shaheed, Flowers, Diontae, Jeudy & Pickens.   BOL!

 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Devaughn Vele praticed today, so he's in line to resume being the big slot - I cashed out on Humphrey +1300 without penalty, and took Devaughn Vele +900 FD 0.4U @ TAM - the 2-TD prop isn't out for DK (nor any TD props for DEN-TAM), so I'm waiting as I hope I can do better than Score (+800/+7500 2+).  

[Broncofan]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:05 AM, Broncofan said:

OK, so on to WK3, and going to continue to lean on the new trends towards more rushing, and short-area pass work...

 

WEEK 3 TNF

ATS/ML 

Don't really like any plays here, if anything I'd consider the under, but 37.5 is just so low.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Rhamondre Stephenson O65.5 rush yds 2U, 85+ rush yds +220 1U DK @ NYJ - NE's OL is struggling against the pass (pressures on half the throws), but they're thriving in the run game.     This pretty much makes Rhamondre the obvious play. 

Hunter Henry O32.5 rec yds 2U, 46+ rec yds +200 1U, 70+ rec yds +650 0.5U - the Jets CB's are their lock-down unit, but they're always most vulnerable to TE.    Henry's the #1 target for Brissett, and with the OL issues, short area passes are where NE will go.   I was tempted to take Stephenson's rec yd line, but he's been used sparingly there, I have to back off for now

Breece Hall O67.5 rush yds 2U, 86+ rush yds +210 1U DK vs. NE - twice in past 2 weeks, I've been considering rush vs. rec props for RB's, and twice the rush prop has been the smash spot (I went rec x 2 lol).    If Hall goes HAM as a receiver, I'll be sad, but I can't deny the trend to more running.   With NE losing MLB Bentley, I'm going with the belief that NYJ will give Hall chances to break a big one.   If they committed to Hall for 15-18 rushes, he may get it on volume alone, but the home run threat without Bentley to call the D and fill the gap, it's worth the play.

So that's 10.5U on 3 player props....NGL, it's pretty ugly otherwise.   Garrett Wilson got locked by C-Gonzalez for <50 yards both games, so not really tempted by his mid 60's prop (and DK Metcalf only got 24 of his 108 yards on C-Gonzalez, so that's a stay away). 

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Hunter Henry +470 FD (waiting for TD boost for 0.8U play) / +6500 2-TD 0.2U FD (+425 / +3500 2+ on DK lol) -  I'm willing to play this down to +400, but given FD has offered 50% TD boosts on Thursdays, I'm willing to wait and see if I can get this past +600 with a boost.  If not, still willing to take the TD prop here, and frankly, the 2-TD has insane value on FD compared to DK/other books. 

Austin Hooper +1200 FD / +15000 2+ TheScore (+10000 2+ on DK, no FD 2-TD) 0.4U / 0.1U - the other TE in NE, who does get RZ snaps.   I like Henry a lot more at his number, but can't deny that Henry & Hooper likely own most of the 

If the Jets lose their 2nd CB DJ Reed, there is probably one TD prop I'll consider, but for now, we're good.    So that's 12U on TNF, which is a lot...but I feel like I'm on the guys who will get all the work, and continuing my work on the short pass / run game.   BOL!

So no 50% boost on TNF for TD's yet, but if there is, I'll lock Henry at +750, but willing to take +500 - I already locked in the +6500 TD, given how much value it had over all the other books.   The crazy part - Hooper is now +1800 / +40000 2+ on TheScore, and FD unchanged, so I was able to void FD's at no penalty.   Crazy CLV there. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

So no 50% boost on TNF for TD's yet, but if there is, I'll lock Henry at +500 now.   The crazy part - Hooper is now +1800 / +40000 2+ on TheScore, and FD unchanged, so I was able to void FD's at no penalty.   Crazy CLV there. 

you dee diontes line 45.5 46.5 don't see as much value there hby?

[Broncofan]

25 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

you dee diontes line 45.5 46.5 don't see as much value there hby?

Damn, it's OK, but I really thought it was going to be lower.

 

Then again, CAR's implied total went up 3 pts when they announced the benching.  You never see that with a backup QB taking over.....lol. 

I think the public might actually push that # down, so I'm waiting.

I'm going to add Tony Pollard O59.5 rush yds 2U , 80+ rush yds +220 1U, 100+ rush yds +550 0.5U DK vs. GB right now - Tyjae Spears missed pratice today after injuring his ankle, this sets up like a dream matchup given GB's inability to stop the run.     Added to the SUN card....

Edited 5 hours ago by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK so MNF lines are trickling out, so time to get that card posted:

WEEK 3 MNF

ATS/ML 

BUF/JAX U45.5 - the Bills & Jags are both bottom-6 in plays run per 2 games so far...and they are both heavily run-based, with a -5% pass rate over expectation.     Without TO's, or chunk plays, that translates to a lower scoring game than advertised.   I'm never a huge fan of unders entertainment wise, but barring OT or a completely different gameplan, I expect this to be a much more lower scoring affair than ppl expect.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Travis Etienne O48.5 rush yds 2U, 62+ rush yds +200 1U, 81+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK @ BUF - BUF has given up 260 yds rushing in game.   Yes, Kyler Murray accounts for 57 of those yards, but the general inability to stop the run is still part of the BUF D with Milano & the safeties gone.   Etienne also has a real chance to be playing without Tank Bigbsy, who left WK2 with a shoulder injury after fumbling (got destroyed on the KO return).   Either way, this line is insanely low for a team that looks to run the ball.   Etienne doesn't even need to be the bell cow to get into alt line territory.

Khalil Shakir O43.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +200 1U DK vs. JAX - while I expect this to be a low-scoring game, I expect BUF to use the short pass game vs. the DB's to succeed more this game.   Why?  Well, JAX is a top 5 run D, if not top 3, but their CB's struggle (and their best CB, Tyson Campbell, is out).    Given BUF's lower pass volume, I'm trusting their most targeted and versatile WR, Shakir.  The emphasis on slow pace and using more run does limit me to a single-alt line here, though.  And that stingy run D is why I have to pass on James Cook even after that amazing game against MIA.

Brian Robinson O50.5 rush yds 2U, 66+ rush yds +210 1U, 90+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK @ CIN - I get that CIN is a 7.5 pt favorite.   But their run D is atrocious, and if WAS wants to protect Jayden Daniels, they'll do what teams have done for ages, and this year, doing to counter the smaller faster personnel on D - run. the. ball.    Even if WAS is in trail mode, CIN's leaky run D could give up alt lines in 12-15 rushes, so I'm pretty comfortable with the full 3.5U alt line here.

Ja'Marr Chase's line is set O79.5, which hardly provided any real alt line value, so I have to pass on that for now.    I really considered Zack Moss's O52.5 line, but given CIN's struggles in establishing the run, and how easy it is to attack that secondary, I'm sitting tight on 3 MNF player props for now.  I'll circle back when secondary plays come out.   With 10U on 3 plays, that's enough for now.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Nothing that stands out right away, would like to see the Fri-Sat injury reports before committing.

 

That's it for now, truthfully only 1-2 TD props have any interest, and only secondary player props are missing at this stage.    With a huge SUN card, I don't mind being a little light for the MNF doubleheader.   I'll update this one for MNF as it comes.  BOL!

Edited 2 hours ago by Broncofan