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TheOnlyThing

4-7-1 to 9-3, why?

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One year ago to the day, the Packers were sitting at 4-7-1 after losing, at home, to the worst team in the NFL -- the 3-9 Cardinals.

Today, they are 9-3, which I certainly did not see coming as I had them winning 9 games at best all season.

The question is why? 

The most obvious answer is the coaching change, but is it really as simple that when MLF took over for Mac the Packers got automatically got this much better?

Aside from the coaching change, I view the removal of several more overpaid and/or under-performers from the roster coupled with the free agent additions of Turner, Amos, and especially the Smith brothers as having the greatest positive impact on the W-L record in 2019.

Another under-appreciated (IMO) contributor to the improvement of the 2019 record has been that the team has been relatively injury free thus far this season.

Anyone else have any ideas how the Pack improved its record so dramatically in just 1 season?

 

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Easier schedule helps a bit.  A more focused Rodgers is probably the #1 thing.  I think the team had given up on their coach and lacked the fire needed to win tight games.  The influx of talent on defense helped quite a bit as well.  And yes .. very healthy season helps as well.

Edited by {Family Ghost}

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1. Pure dumbass luck. Last year's team had a 7.5-8.5 differential and finished 6.5-9.5. This year's team has a 9-7 differential and will finish 11-5 or 12-4. Some times luck is all it is.

2. Injuries have been huge. We've been amazingly healthy this year. Combining the health and luck we've had so far this year, we're easily next year's top regression candidate.

3. The defense is just flat more talented. The free agent acquisitions have been huge. Considering how much more talented this unit is, the fact we've only improved marginally is troubling.

+++

I don't mean to say that I think LaFleur has nothing to do with the improvement, but it's not like our offense is noticeably better

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5 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. Pure dumbass luck. Last year's team had a 7.5-8.5 differential and finished 6.5-9.5. This year's team has a 9-7 differential and will finish 11-5 or 12-4. Some times luck is all it is.

2. Injuries have been huge. We've been amazingly healthy this year. Combining the health and luck we've had so far this year, we're easily next year's top regression candidate.

3. The defense is just flat more talented. The free agent acquisitions have been huge. Considering how much more talented this unit is, the fact we've only improved marginally is troubling.

+++

I don't mean to say that I think LaFleur has nothing to do with the improvement, but it's not like our offense is noticeably better

That and drafting Savage has greatly improved the defense. I think moving forward, this team will win games if the defense can get stops. It's not like we're going to be an offensive juggernaut anytime soon, but the good news is that unless there's an incredible amount of regression, we hit on Jenkins in the 2nd round. If only we can get that right side of the OL situated...

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1 minute ago, Joe said:

That and drafting Savage has greatly improved the defense. I think moving forward, this team will win games if the defense can get stops. It's not like we're going to be an offensive juggernaut anytime soon, but the good news is that unless there's an incredible amount of regression, we hit on Jenkins in the 2nd round. If only we can get that right side of the OL situated...

Except we really didn't. We went from allowing 25 ppg (22nd) to allowing 21.3 (14th). Considering we supposedly have significant upgrades at 4/11 starting spots and are in the second year of a system, and are extremely healthy, that's not particularly impressive.

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This team was fed up with Camp McCarthy and his ways .. LaFleur brought in some much needed energy, and between the new coaching staff and the Smith Bros. they quickly changed the culture.  I think it became a funner place to be, and helped us get off to a fast start this season.

Edited by {Family Ghost}

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1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Except we really didn't. We went from allowing 25 ppg (22nd) to allowing 21.3 (14th). Considering we supposedly have significant upgrades at 4/11 starting spots and are in the second year of a system, and are extremely healthy, that's not particularly impressive.

...and if we didn't have those pieces we would see more regression...because we have no interior presence other than Clark and Martinez....

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1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Except we really didn't. We went from allowing 25 ppg (22nd) to allowing 21.3 (14th). Considering we supposedly have significant upgrades at 4/11 starting spots and are in the second year of a system, and are extremely healthy, that's not particularly impressive.

It could be better but nearly four points a game is at least fairly significant.

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3 minutes ago, Joe said:

...and if we didn't have those pieces we would see more regression...because we have no interior presence other than Clark and Martinez....

We had the same bodies with the exception of Daniels

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you had them only winning 9 games with this schedule? 

i get they are 9-3 but i am a believer in how you look when you win. the win vs the Giants is a good example.  They won but it wasnt pretty. they "got the job done".  thats fine and dandy during the regular season but in the playoffs just getting the job done, aint gonna get the job done. despite the record i still think this team loses its first match up in the playoffs.  

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17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

We had the same bodies with the exception of Daniels

Z Smith takes significant inside rush snaps though doesn't he?

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44 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. Pure dumbass luck. Last year's team had a 7.5-8.5 differential and finished 6.5-9.5. This year's team has a 9-7 differential and will finish 11-5 or 12-4. Some times luck is all it is.

2. Injuries have been huge. We've been amazingly healthy this year. Combining the health and luck we've had so far this year, we're easily next year's top regression candidate.

3. The defense is just flat more talented. The free agent acquisitions have been huge. Considering how much more talented this unit is, the fact we've only improved marginally is troubling.

+++

I don't mean to say that I think LaFleur has nothing to do with the improvement, but it's not like our offense is noticeably better

I wouldn't call it pure dumbass luck. The defense in the Bears, Vikings, Cowboys, and Panthers games has made a crucial 4th Q stop while in the Lions and Chiefs games our offense put together a crucial 4th Q drive that all cemented the game. The Eagles game we were 1 yard and an obvious DPI away from the same.

Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, Raiders and Giants have all been fairly decisive games one way or the other.

Last year it seemed like everything that could go wrong in close games went wrong for us. We had awful execution in the clutch. This year has been a completely different story.

FA acquisitions, team health and clutch situation execution would be my reasons.

I get using point differential, but I think there's something to be said about being a team tested in tight games and more often than not coming out on top. Playoff games aren't blowouts, it's nice to know we've been there and we execute.

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2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I wouldn't call it pure dumbass luck. The defense in the Bears, Vikings, Cowboys, and Panthers games has made a crucial 4th Q stop while in the Lions and Chiefs games our offense put together a crucial 4th Q drive that all cemented the game. The Eagles game we were 1 yard and an obvious DPI away from the same.

Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, Raiders and Giants have all been fairly decisive games one way or the other.

Last year it seemed like everything that could go wrong in close games went wrong for us. We had awful execution in the clutch. This year has been a completely different story.

FA acquisitions, team health and clutch situation execution would be my reasons.

I get using point differential, but I think there's something to be said about being a team tested in tight games and more often than not coming out on top. Playoff games aren't blowouts, it's nice to know we've been there and we execute.

Close game success has repeatedly proven to be more random statistical variance than repeatable behavior. There's no reason to think that because this team is "tested" it's more likely to win playoff games

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1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Close game success has repeatedly proven to be more random statistical variance than repeatable behavior. There's no reason to think that because this team is "tested" it's more likely to win playoff games

There's analytics I get behind 100% and ones I completely disregard. Being around football my whole life until recently, I disregard anything that says clutch performance is random. Leadership and team culture play a huge part in it, some guys play with nerves and some don't. 

I think this team is run by the veterans this year (how a team should run IMO) and last year it was run by the coaches. The loose playing style mixed with a good deal of veterans who have been there before is a good mix for close game situations.

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