Week 14 GDT: Packers vs Washington Redskins

[Fl0nkerton]

10 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Okay, so alleged GOAT can't adjust?  Aaron clearly saw what happened and made the throw.  His deep accuracy is horse****.  Not only that, but it doesn't really look like he had to make the throw that early.  If he did, why can't he lob it up?  Jones had an easy TD there if Rodgers just puts a little more air under the ball. 

 

A miss is a miss is a miss.

There's probably a few factors for why he missed. Jones running the route wrong is one of them. Bakh getting put into his lap certainly didn't help either.

[MacReady]

5 minutes ago, Fl0nkerton said:

A miss is a miss is a miss.

There's probably a few factors for why he missed. Jones running the route wrong is one of them. Bakh getting put into his lap certainly didn't help either.

Yes, but he has been missing these throws for two full years now.  

[packfanfb]

Rumor has it we're playing some team from Chicago, Illinois this week. They any good? 

@squire12 make the Gameday thread so we can discuss. Thanks. 

[Packerraymond]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Okay, so alleged GOAT can't adjust?  Aaron clearly saw what happened and made the throw.  His deep accuracy is horse****.  Not only that, but it doesn't really look like he had to make the throw that early.  If he did, why can't he lob it up?  Jones had an easy TD there if Rodgers just puts a little more air under the ball. 

 

Pause when the ball is about to come out and see where Jones is. Isn't hard.

There are a plethora of reasons to hate Aaron for Sunday, this isn't one of them. 

This is the landmark concept I keep hammering away to you as to why MVS doesn't play. The ball goes to a landmark when it leaves Aaron's hands, can't adjust your route for convenience or it won't be complete.

[MacReady]

54 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Pause when the ball is about to come out and see where Jones is. Isn't hard.

There are a plethora of reasons to hate Aaron for Sunday, this isn't one of them. 

This is the landmark concept I keep hammering away to you as to why MVS doesn't play. The ball goes to a landmark when it leaves Aaron's hands, can't adjust your route for convenience or it won't be complete.

What is everybody watching Three Amigos today?  This is the third post I’ve seen in reference to me today that used the word plethora.  

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

7 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

What is everybody watching Three Amigos today?  This is the third post I’ve seen in reference to me today that used the word plethora.  

Plethora of posts about you using the word plethora?  Curious.  

[MacReady]

Just now, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Plethora of posts about you using the word plethora?  Curious.  

Nope, there were a plethora of people implementing the word plethora into their personal posts in reply to my posts.  Personally, I did not propagate the prevalence of plethora, I purely pointed out its present prevalence.

[AlexGreen#20]

FWIW, this is a lot of what I saw this week. Rodgers has two options here, neither of which are particularly appealing. 

He can attempt a genuine superstar throw to Lazard. It's gonna take a 100 MPH fastball through a small window between the linebackers. There's a decent chance somebody gets a hand on it, but you're not expecting a linebacker to make a diving catch on your high heat. 

He can also go to Graham who's got outside leverage and half a step. He can try to leverage with Graham going to the front pylon, or he can try and drop it in over his shoulder on the way to the back of the endzone. Neither of which are good, but this is why you have a big TE, you let him box out and let him make a play.

Rodgers isn't going to attempt either of these throws. Which isn't necessarily the worst thing. Again, neither one of them are particularly high percentage completions. 

But

You're now scrambling out of the pocket and your only real option is Davante who is pretty darn covered at this point. 

Ultimately he's gonna end up throwing this ball away.

No interception, no sack. 3rd and 4 becomes 4th and 4. You kick the 32 yard FG and you get 3 points.

But this is the difference between winning games against good teams. Good teams are going to cover well. It's going to take star plays to beat them. 

I don't know how I grade Rodgers on this play. This is an instance where there's a good argument to be made that he made the right decision. The Redskins are a horrible offense and maybe taking the FG is the right choice here, but damn if it doesn't kinda leave a bad taste in my mouth if you believe he can still do this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEY3kArDZT0

There's a bunch more plays like this throughout this game. Plays where the guy isn't really "open" in the strictest sense, but they could be thrown open, and there's opportunity. 

[AlexGreen#20]

This is infuriating. You just can't be throwing this ball away.

If you're not trusting Graham with this ball, what is he doing on the roster?

I get the CBs is baiting you on the throw to Lazard, but man trust your guy a little bit.

Same deal. Can't be really throwing this ball away. You're either in a deep ball mood, or you're checking down. If you're gonna throw it, Throw It! If you're not gonna throw it, let your Back try and beat a Backer in space. 

I get missing this to Jones based on the release change. And I get that this is very hypocritical of me to be saying, but. . . We're throwing blind trust balls to RBs running sluggos when we have Davante 1v1 in man to man with a 7 yard cushion. He's got the first down here. I get what happened, but man alive that seems like a weird choice. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by AlexGreen#20

[cannondale]

8 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

 

I think Lazard is open but the ball has to be already on it's way. Wouldn't mind seeing a frame a half a second earlier. Might have been one of those anticipation throws or the window closes too fast. That's where we circle back to Rodgers not wanting to trust just anyone when you have to anticipate a tight window. I really try not to get caught up in these because we don't know the progressions etc. Most fans just don't get that it's not a drop back free for all where the QB scans the field like in the backyard. If you say "one mississippi" the seemingly wide open window frozen in time has already closed --- and then some. Unless you know the reads, this is tough

 

[AlexGreen#20]

6 minutes ago, cannondale said:

I think Lazard is open but the ball has to be already on it's way. Wouldn't mind seeing a frame a half a second earlier. Might have been one of those anticipation throws or the window closes too fast. That's where we circle back to Rodgers not wanting to trust just anyone when you have to anticipate a tight window. I really try not to get caught up in these because we don't know the progressions etc. Most fans just don't get that it's not a drop back free for all where the QB scans the field like in the backyard. If you say "one mississippi" the seemingly wide open window frozen in time has already closed --- and then some. Unless you know the reads, this is tough

You're dead on accurate. A half second earlier Lazard is just starting to put his foot in the ground to make his cut. But that is what separates great from good and good from average is the ability to anticipate where the ball needs to be.

The one where he almost got picked on was the exact same deal. 

He's not throwing into the break. Graham's two steps past the break in the route before the windup starts. If this ball comes out as the break is happening, this is a first down. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by AlexGreen#20

[cannondale]

1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

You're dead on accurate. A half second earlier Lazard is just starting to put his foot in the ground to make his cut. But that is what separates great from good and good from average is the ability to anticipate where the ball needs to be. 

And fans need to know that a lot of those routes may be an option route, which complicates and requires double the trust and anticipation. 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, cannondale said:

And fans need to know that a lot of those routes may be an option route, which complicates and requires double the trust and anticipation. 

No doubt, but that's what it takes to be successful. 

[KFP7]

32 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

FWIW, this is a lot of what I saw this week. Rodgers has two options here, neither of which are particularly appealing. 

He can attempt a genuine superstar throw to Lazard. It's gonna take a 100 MPH fastball through a small window between the linebackers. There's a decent chance somebody gets a hand on it, but you're not expecting a linebacker to make a diving catch on your high heat. 

He can also go to Graham who's got outside leverage and half a step. He can try to leverage with Graham going to the front pylon, or he can try and drop it in over his shoulder on the way to the back of the endzone. Neither of which are good, but this is why you have a big TE, you let him box out and let him make a play.

Rodgers isn't going to attempt either of these throws. Which isn't necessarily the worst thing. Again, neither one of them are particularly high percentage completions. 

But

You're now scrambling out of the pocket and your only real option is Davante who is pretty darn covered at this point. 

Ultimately he's gonna end up throwing this ball away.

No interception, no sack. 3rd and 4 becomes 4th and 4. You kick the 32 yard FG and you get 3 points.

But this is the difference between winning games against good teams. Good teams are going to cover well. It's going to take star plays to beat them. 

I don't know how I grade Rodgers on this play. This is an instance where there's a good argument to be made that he made the right decision. The Redskins are a horrible offense and maybe taking the FG is the right choice here, but damn if it doesn't kinda leave a bad taste in my mouth if you believe he can still do this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEY3kArDZT0

There's a bunch more plays like this throughout this game. Plays where the guy isn't really "open" in the strictest sense, but they could be thrown open, and there's opportunity. 

Jesus that throw to Jennings shows how different he is now.  I still think it's mental and that he's capable of that play, but no way is he choosing to throw that ball

[cannondale]

5 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

No doubt, but that's what it takes to be successful. 

I've stayed clear of the Rodgers debate. What little I have said has been on the side of Rodgers. I still say going from Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Driver, Finley to Adams, Tom, Dich, and Harry is no easy task. Rodgers is screwed either way.

Thanks for the work.

Edited December 10, 2019 by cannondale