Picking #3

[Karnage84]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

The last time we saw a team trade into the top 5 that wasn't moving up to select a QB was in 2014 when the Bills traded up for Sammy Watkins.  Teams don't pass up the opportunity to draft the BPA unless they're receiving a mountain of picks in return.  The 49ers took Nick Bosa in 2019, the Giants took Saquon Barkley in 2018, the Browns took Myles Garrett in 2017, and the Chargers took Joey Bosa in 2016.  Teams aren't going to pass up on BPA because they get a "decent" package.  It's going to take a hell of a package for the Redskins to move down from 2.

The Lions moving up one spot isn't an absurd idea and it really does depend on what Washington wants to do. If Trent Williams still walks out the door, they'll need a LT. They already have multiple needs + coaching change = players that may not fit culture and/or scheme. A couple moves to get a couple 1sts and extra picks isn't out to lunch. Them taking Young and hoping everything else falls into place is also realistic. 

[LionArkie]

For me, I personally would rather have 3 good players,than one elite player unless the elite is a qb. I feel you go for an elite player once the foundation is set.  The Lions didn't win anything with Barry Sanders or CJ and both were elite. The supporting cast cannot be undervalued.

Edited January 7, 2020 by LionArkie

[CWood21]

13 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

The Lions moving up one spot isn't an absurd idea and it really does depend on what Washington wants to do. If Trent Williams still walks out the door, they'll need a LT. They already have multiple needs + coaching change = players that may not fit culture and/or scheme. A couple moves to get a couple 1sts and extra picks isn't out to lunch. Them taking Young and hoping everything else falls into place is also realistic. 

At the end of the day, the value has to be met.  How much does Washington need to move down from 2 to 3?  I'm assuming that the Redskins have Chase Young on a different tier than Andrew Thomas (or any other player).  How much value does Washington need to receive in order to consider moving down?  They traded their SRP last year as part of the Montez Sweat trade.  At the bare minimum, I'd imagine they'd need at least SRP this year if not more.  We really don't have any great comparisons in terms of trade value.  Maybe you could look at the Sam Darnold trade, but that was A) a pre-draft trade and B) involves QB premium.  And on the other side, how much are the Lions really willing to give up?  They've got all their picks in the first two days of this year and next year's draft.  Would they give up their SRP this year?  I would if I were the Lions.  But if the package starts expanding more?  That's why we really haven't seen teams maneuver out of the top 5.  Teams want more than they're worth, and teams that are moving up only want to give up what they're willing to lose.

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

At the end of the day, the value has to be met.  How much does Washington need to move down from 2 to 3?  I'm assuming that the Redskins have Chase Young on a different tier than Andrew Thomas (or any other player).  How much value does Washington need to receive in order to consider moving down?  They traded their SRP last year as part of the Montez Sweat trade.  At the bare minimum, I'd imagine they'd need at least SRP this year if not more.  We really don't have any great comparisons in terms of trade value.  Maybe you could look at the Sam Darnold trade, but that was A) a pre-draft trade and B) involves QB premium.  And on the other side, how much are the Lions really willing to give up?  They've got all their picks in the first two days of this year and next year's draft.  Would they give up their SRP this year?  I would if I were the Lions.  But if the package starts expanding more?  That's why we really haven't seen teams maneuver out of the top 5.  Teams want more than they're worth, and teams that are moving up only want to give up what they're willing to lose.

That's the thing - the trade down isn't just for Young. Because they would also be sitting there at #3 with Tua or Burrow on the market. 

This is a pretty close example of what comp could look like

2017 NFL Draft

Chicago receives #2 Overall - Mitch Trubisky

San Francisco receives #3 overall, #67 (3rd), #111 (4th) and 2018 3rd. 

To your point, there's QB premium although I have to wonder about pass-rusher premium being close. 

That leaves Tua still on the board. 

2018 NFL Draft

Jets receive #3 overall - Sam Darnold

Colts receive #6 Overall, #37 (2nd), #49 (3rd), 2019 2nd

 

If the Redskins are sold on Haskins and want to trade down, they could be looking at a haul that looks like this:

2020 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th,

2021 2nd, 2021 3rd

[flyguy1609]

49 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I just think for the type of player, age of player, cap hit and production... Young at #3 just makes too much sense to not be the pick. Beasley is older and doesn't offer the same level of production/impact, Ngaokue is older and is going to be much more expensive, etc. 

To each their own but it's going to be near impossible for someone to convince me that not taking Young if he's there at #3 makes sense. 

 

I personally like Beasley he I s 27.  HYPATHLETICALLY  Oakland  trades 12 &19 and 2nd next year for 3 and its for  Young. would you rather have Young or Jerry Judy and A.J. Epenesa , just using these guys as an example. I agree you that  Chase is the best player of the 3, but  were not a Chase Young away from making the playoffs.                     

 

again not trying to start an argument with anyone, were actually in a great position for a change. just thinking out loud and think we need more than Chase Young to make the playoffs.

Edited January 7, 2020 by flyguy1609

[Karnage84]

4 minutes ago, flyguy1609 said:

 

I personally like Beasley he I s 27.  HYPATHLETICALLY  Oakland  trades 12 &19 and 2nd next year for 3 and its for  Young. would you rather have Young or Jerry Judy and A.J. Epenesa , just using these guys as an example. I agree you that  Chase is the best player of the 3, but  were not a Chase Young away from making the playoffs.                                       

I don't think Jeudy is there at #12. We're probably looking more like Ruggs.. who is a good player for sure but I'm not sure he's in the same tier as Jeudy just yet. 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2020/1/7/21051117/2020-nfl-mock-draft-jerry-jeudy-henry-ruggs-laviska-shenault-wide-receiver 

Using this mock for draft position/available guys, 

#12 - Ruggs, Austin Jackson (OT), AJ Epenesa

#19 - Trevon Diggs (CB), Ceedee Lamb (although I think he'll go to Arizona much earlier)

As much as I like Ruggs, the offense wasn't the issue and we have a Diet Ruggs already on the roster in Marvin Hall at a lower cap hit. We will need to add another young WR to eventually replace Marvin Jones but this is a super deep draft. 

I'd still want an elite player like Young over some pretty good players later on in the draft. 

Edited January 7, 2020 by Karnage84

[Nastradamus]

I think there is over a 50% chance someone trades up to our pick for Tua personally. Tons of defenders we could land depending on which slot we drop to . I really want 5 and 18 from Miami. Jax can offer 9,23 and a future 1 or the like(they have the extra Ramsey picks), Carolina likely wants a new QB for Rhule IMO, LAC needs a QB of the future and Oakland has two middle first and nobody knows if Gruden is sold on Carr or not. While Tua had a severe injury, he was also the career leader in QBR for the NCAA. He's a special prospect and teams will make moves on guys like that. 

[Millenhater]

13 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Chase Young? Their #1 need and a generational player. 

Washington could absolutely stay and take him there but they have a new coach. They need to rebuild the roster. They don't have a 2nd round pick. Adding a couple firsts and some other higher picks will allow them to add talent and build around Haskins. The Lions have a shorter window. Trading a 2nd rounder for a guy like Young is a calculated risk that is worth it to me. 

As much as I like Okudah, and I think we could still get him if we trade down to 5, I wouldn’t be mad at this. In fact I’d probably love it. I think he could turn our whole defense around. 

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

That's the thing - the trade down isn't just for Young. Because they would also be sitting there at #3 with Tua or Burrow on the market. 

This is a pretty close example of what comp could look like

2017 NFL Draft

Chicago receives #2 Overall - Mitch Trubisky

San Francisco receives #3 overall, #67 (3rd), #111 (4th) and 2018 3rd. 

To your point, there's QB premium although I have to wonder about pass-rusher premium being close. 

That leaves Tua still on the board. 

2018 NFL Draft

Jets receive #3 overall - Sam Darnold

Colts receive #6 Overall, #37 (2nd), #49 (3rd), 2019 2nd

 

If the Redskins are sold on Haskins and want to trade down, they could be looking at a haul that looks like this:

2020 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th,

2021 2nd, 2021 3rd

You're starting to lose me.  IF the Lions and Redskins swap picks, it's going to be so the Lions can select Chase Young.  If I'm the Redskins, it's taking more than what the Bears gave up to get Mitchell Trubisky.  At the bare minimum, it's either taking their '20 SRP or '21 FRP for me to even consider moving down.  Chase Young is by far the BPA in the draft.  And then a potential trade down again for a team that wants Tua.  You're diluting the pool even further.  One elite player is better than a few good players.

[Karnage84]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You're starting to lose me.  IF the Lions and Redskins swap picks, it's going to be so the Lions can select Chase Young.  If I'm the Redskins, it's taking more than what the Bears gave up to get Mitchell Trubisky.  At the bare minimum, it's either taking their '20 SRP or '21 FRP for me to even consider moving down.  Chase Young is by far the BPA in the draft.  And then a potential trade down again for a team that wants Tua.  You're diluting the pool even further.  One elite player is better than a few good players.

I'm merely pointing out what HAS happened in the past which already incorporates QB premium. It sets a precedent for value.

The Redskins could value Young beyond what the Bears offered for Trubisky; they could also be looking at plugging a number of holes with young talent this year and next. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Good discussion in this thread.
 

It’s been mentioned numerous times that the Redskins have a number of holes to fill, which is somewhat true, just probably not as many holes as you’re thinking. What you may not know is that we have ~$50mm in cap space and could have much more pretty easily by making a few simple cuts like Josh Norman, Jordan Reed, Paul Richardson, and even trading Kerrigan. We could easily use free agency to fill the holes we have and just draft BPA. 
 

All that is to say, we would need a hell of an offer to even consider trading out of the #2 spot and missing out on Young. 
 

Tbh, I wasn’t shocked to hear rumors about the Lions taking Tua. But I think what they're truly after, by establishing the threat that they might take Tua, is to get teams to trade up to #2 ahead of them (by giving the Redskins an offer too tempting to pass up) and have Chase Young fall in their laps.  I'm of the belief that, with Quinn and Patricia on the hottest of hot seats, paired with the team's terrible track record rushing the passer, they covet Young much more than they covet extra picks.  Those extra picks will likely not pay off in the immediate future, and they need an elite immediate contributor on that D Line.  

Edited January 8, 2020 by HTTRDynasty

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

12 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Good discussion in this thread.
 

It’s been mentioned numerous times that the Redskins have a number of holes to fill, which is somewhat true, just probably not as many holes as you’re thinking. What you may not know is that we have ~$50mm in cap space and could have much more pretty easily by making a few simple cuts like Josh Norman, Jordan Reed, Paul Richardson, and even trading Kerrigan. We could easily use free agency to fill the holes we have and just draft BPA. 
 

All that is to say, we would need a hell of an offer to even consider trading out of the #2 spot and missing out on Young. 
 

Tbh, I wasn’t shocked to hear rumors about the Lions taking Tua. But I think what they're truly after, by establishing the threat that they might take Tua, is to get teams to trade up to #2 ahead of them (by giving the Redskins an offer too tempting to pass up) and have Chase Young fall in their laps.  I'm of the belief that, with Quinn and Patricia on the hottest of hot seats, paired with the team's terrible track record rushing the passer, they covet Young much more than they covet extra picks.  Those extra picks will likely not pay off in the immediate future, and they need an elite immediate contributor on that D Line.  

Can't disagree with any of this.

If it's shown that Stafford's back is a concern moving forward, Tua should 100% be the pick. I desperately wish owners wouldn't give GMs/coaches short-term demands, as it has potential long-term consequences.

[Karnage84]

40 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Good discussion in this thread.
 

It’s been mentioned numerous times that the Redskins have a number of holes to fill, which is somewhat true, just probably not as many holes as you’re thinking. What you may not know is that we have ~$50mm in cap space and could have much more pretty easily by making a few simple cuts like Josh Norman, Jordan Reed, Paul Richardson, and even trading Kerrigan. We could easily use free agency to fill the holes we have and just draft BPA. 
 

All that is to say, we would need a hell of an offer to even consider trading out of the #2 spot and missing out on Young. 
 

Tbh, I wasn’t shocked to hear rumors about the Lions taking Tua. But I think what they're truly after, by establishing the threat that they might take Tua, is to get teams to trade up to #2 ahead of them (by giving the Redskins an offer too tempting to pass up) and have Chase Young fall in their laps.  I'm of the belief that, with Quinn and Patricia on the hottest of hot seats, paired with the team's terrible track record rushing the passer, they covet Young much more than they covet extra picks.  Those extra picks will likely not pay off in the immediate future, and they need an elite immediate contributor on that D Line.  

Thanks for the insight. It's always great to get a perspective from people who know their team better than those on the outside. 

 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Good discussion in this thread.
 

It’s been mentioned numerous times that the Redskins have a number of holes to fill, which is somewhat true, just probably not as many holes as you’re thinking. What you may not know is that we have ~$50mm in cap space and could have much more pretty easily by making a few simple cuts like Josh Norman, Jordan Reed, Paul Richardson, and even trading Kerrigan. We could easily use free agency to fill the holes we have and just draft BPA. 
 

All that is to say, we would need a hell of an offer to even consider trading out of the #2 spot and missing out on Young. 
 

Tbh, I wasn’t shocked to hear rumors about the Lions taking Tua. But I think what they're truly after, by establishing the threat that they might take Tua, is to get teams to trade up to #2 ahead of them (by giving the Redskins an offer too tempting to pass up) and have Chase Young fall in their laps.  I'm of the belief that, with Quinn and Patricia on the hottest of hot seats, paired with the team's terrible track record rushing the passer, they covet Young much more than they covet extra picks.  Those extra picks will likely not pay off in the immediate future, and they need an elite immediate contributor on that D Line.  

What is your take on the Trent Williams situation? Do you think he's going to still want to be traded or is Ron Rivera going to quiet that down?

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

If it's shown that Stafford's back is a concern moving forward, Tua should 100% be the pick. I desperately wish owners wouldn't give GMs/coaches short-term demands, as it has potential long-term consequences.

Wouldn't surprise me if they made Tua the pick for themselves.  Kinda reminds me of the Marcus Mariota rumors leading up to the draft in 2015.  The rumors that Tennessee was auctioning off the pick to the highest bidder, but it turned out that Tennessee wanted Mariota for themselves.