jimkelly02 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 3 hours ago, agarcia34 said: ....gonna go to Key or Nassib when you want another rusher out there. That contract will never make sense to me and its worse can you can't get out of it next year. Horrible contract. Next year we cut him and dead cap 5.75M or keep him at 9.5M. thats a lot of money for a guy whose a 3rd DE (sounds like he’s 4th with Key outplaying him) and is prolly going to get 4-7 sacks. im gonna wrote down all the posters who are amping him up and going to remind them at the beginning of FA ‘21 what they said. I see how plausible scenario where his play in ‘20 warrants his pay in ‘21. We simply shouldn’t have signed a non starter to year 2 guaranteed money. That’s a horrible combination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 I love how you guys know it's a horrible contract before he has even played a snap here. What will the winning lottery numbers be? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 9 hours ago, jimkelly02 said: thats a lot of money for a guy whose a 3rd DE (sounds like he’s 4th with Key outplaying him) and is prolly going to get 4-7 sacks. im gonna wrote down all the posters who are amping him up and going to remind them at the beginning of FA ‘21 what they said. I see how plausible scenario where his play in ‘20 warrants his pay in ‘21. We simply shouldn’t have signed a non starter to year 2 guaranteed money. That’s a horrible combination. It's pretty clear that the main reason we signed him is because we plan to use Ferrell inside a lot more. He hasn't been seen much when the media is around but that only tells part of the story, it also seems like you'd want to get Key more reps to see what you have in him over Nassib when you more or less already know what he brings to the table. High level run defense and a decent pass rusher. Funny enough Nassib's skill-set is basically what you hope Ferrell can develop into. Key hasn't proven anything in actual games, Ferrell struggled as a pass rusher, and Crosby had double digit sacks but 5.5 of them came in two games. Nassib has been a consistent starter over the past two seasons in Tampa Bay and is only 27 years old. You can never have too many pass rushers and as of now our pass rushing unit is still very unknown. If Ferrell wasn't a top 5 pick and you were starting guys based on actual play last season, Nassib would start over him hands down. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimkelly02 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 2 hours ago, NYRaider said: I love how you guys know it's a horrible contract before he has even played a snap here. What will the winning lottery numbers be? But Nassib has played many snaps .... and has never ever played like someone whose worth 9.5M even if you take his best game and extrapolate it. Is a physically limited player like Nassib going to have a massive breakout for us? Highly doubtful. Explain to me how why you think Ferrell is basically a bust at DE but Nassib is so good he’s worth 9.5M? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimkelly02 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 2 hours ago, NYRaider said: It's pretty clear that the main reason we signed him is because we plan to use Ferrell inside a lot more. He hasn't been seen much when the media is around but that only tells part of the story, it also seems like you'd want to get Key more reps to see what you have in him over Nassib when you more or less already know what he brings to the table. High level run defense and a decent pass rusher. Funny enough Nassib's skill-set is basically what you hope Ferrell can develop into. Key hasn't proven anything in actual games, Ferrell struggled as a pass rusher, and Crosby had double digit sacks but 5.5 of them came in two games. Nassib has been a consistent starter over the past two seasons in Tampa Bay and is only 27 years old. You can never have too many pass rushers and as of now our pass rushing unit is still very unknown. If Ferrell wasn't a top 5 pick and you were starting guys based on actual play last season, Nassib would start over him hands down. Not at all... I believe Ferrell can be way way way more than what Nassib is and might slightly develop to become. nassibs a consistent starter? Ummm he’s started 50% of the games the last 2 years. you constantly do this thing where you have players you like and pump them up real high and other players you don’t and beat them down. And you offer zilch to back it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said: But Nassib has played many snaps .... and has never ever played like someone whose worth 9.5M even if you take his best game and extrapolate it. Is a physically limited player like Nassib going to have a massive breakout for us? Highly doubtful. Explain to me how why you think Ferrell is basically a bust at DE but Nassib is so good he’s worth 9.5M? Nassib only played roughly 55% of the Buccaneers snaps over the last two seasons and had a combined 25 QB hits and 12.5 sacks. If you bump him up to 75% of their snaps that'd project to around 8 sacks and 16 QB hits in a season. I'm not a huge fan of the terms but I'm assuming that Gunther and Gruden think he can have an uptick in production with a bigger role and it gives them more flexibility on the defensive line. The biggest thing with Nassib is that he's a solid veteran in our edge rotation. I want Ferrell to succeed but he showed absolutely nothing as a pass rusher last season, Crosby flashed but again his production was skewed because 55% of his sack production came in 2 games (he had 9 games without a sack), and Key has never proven anything here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said: Not at all... I believe Ferrell can be way way way more than what Nassib is and might slightly develop to become. nassibs a consistent starter? Ummm he’s started 50% of the games the last 2 years. you constantly do this thing where you have players you like and pump them up real high and other players you don’t and beat them down. And you offer zilch to back it up. He might be but the plan is clearly to bump him inside on passing downs to get another pass rusher on the field. Maybe not a consistent "starter" but he has been a consistent player for the Buccaneers the past two seasons and is entering his prime at 27. With Nassib you're getting a guy that is very good in run support and can be a solid #3 pass rusher. I hope that Ferrell plays well, Crosby builds on his rookie season, and Key finally turns the corner. But as the 49ers showed last season, you can never have too many pass rushers. And Nassib is the only edge guy on our roster that has had solid production for more than 1 season. You're complaining about the contract but edge players always get overpaid in free agency. Recent edge defenders in free agency: Trey Flowers got $18M/yr and he never had more than 7.5 sacks in a season entering free agency Preston Smith got $13M/yr and he never had more than 8 sacks in a season entering free agency Za'Darius Smith got $17M/yr and he had never had more than 8.5 sacks in a season entering free agency Shaquil Barrett got $15M/yr and only had 1 season of double digit sack production in his career entering free agency Dante Fowler Jr got $16M/yr and only had 1 season of double digit sack production in his career entering free agency Arik Armstead got $17M/yr and only had 1 season of double digit sack production in his career entering free agency Bud Dupree got $15M/yr and only had 1 season of double digit sack production in his career entering free agency 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimkelly02 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, NYRaider said: Nassib only played roughly 55% of the Buccaneers snaps over the last two seasons and had a combined 25 QB hits and 12.5 sacks. If you bump him up to 75% of their snaps that'd project to around 8 sacks and 16 QB hits in a season. I'm not a huge fan of the terms but I'm assuming that Gunther and Gruden think he can have an uptick in production with a bigger role and it gives them more flexibility on the defensive line. The biggest thing with Nassib is that he's a solid veteran in our edge rotation. I want Ferrell to succeed but he showed absolutely nothing as a pass rusher last season, Crosby flashed but again his production was skewed because 55% of his sack production came in 2 games (he had 9 games without a sack), and Key has never proven anything here. Again your using flawed logic here. There are tons of players I can take their stats and increase their projected snap counts and amaze you with high stats. Mayowa had 7.0 sacks on under 29% of snaps..... make him a starter at 75% getting snaps and he’ll get us 16-17 sacks! Except that’s also not how it works. Exactly how if Nassib going to get 75% of the snaps in a rotation with Crosby, Ferrell, and Key? From what I gather you think he’s gonna be the 3rd DE— and yet he plays 75% of the snaps? And I get it’s hard to project because Ferrell and Nassib will likely both get snaps at DT.... but still 75% seems crazy high. I can see 65% maybe. This is what you do: form an opinion and find information to back it up. Again, I don’t think Nassib sucks. I think the contract wasn’t that great. If it was 3M guarenteed in ‘21 not 5.75 (and thus the 2nd year is guarenteed essentially) I wouldn’t be having this conversation. That’s all I said. I think Nassib is a nice 3rd DE and has nice utility with his ability to play DT. But I’m real about the fact that he’s a solid run defender first and a pass rusher second. Edited August 31, 2020 by jimkelly02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimkelly02 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 57 minutes ago, NYRaider said: He might be but the plan is clearly to bump him inside on passing downs to get another pass rusher on the field. Maybe not a consistent "starter" but he has been a consistent player for the Buccaneers the past two seasons and is entering his prime at 27. With Nassib you're getting a guy that is very good in run support and can be a solid #3 pass rusher. I hope that Ferrell plays well, Crosby builds on his rookie season, and Key finally turns the corner. But as the 49ers showed last season, you can never have too many pass rushers. And Nassib is the only edge guy on our roster that has had solid production for more than 1 season. You're complaining about the contract but edge players always get overpaid in free agency. Recent edge defenders in free agency: Trey Flowers got $18M/yr and he never had more than 7.5 sacks in a season entering free agency Preston Smith got $13M/yr and he never had more than 8 sacks in a season entering free agency Za'Darius Smith got $17M/yr and he had never had more than 8.5 sacks in a season entering free agency Shaquil Barrett got $15M/yr and only had 1 season of double digit sack production in his career entering free agency Dante Fowler Jr got $16M/yr and only had 1 season of double digit sack production in his career entering free agency Arik Armstead got $17M/yr and only had 1 season of double digit sack production in his career entering free agency Bud Dupree got $15M/yr and only had 1 season of double digit sack production in his career entering free agency Again.... your looking for an argument that really isn’t there. Kind of like when I said McMillian isn’t a guy I’d call an asset in coverage but he also isn’t THAT bad as they’ve made him out to be. We really don’t disagree on Nassib.... at all. Nice 3rd DE... could start if needed.... probably going to get better a bit but not gonna explode.... his APY isn’t bad but to guarantee year 2 (or at least so much of it) was an overpayment. But Nassib isn’t that tier of players. You took a tier of players above Nassib in talent, production, and pay. Those are elite edge rushers and elite players always cost a premium. Some end up being values, some end up being overpayments. I’d put Nassib (3y,25.5M 8.4m APY) in the same tier as Ogbah, who got 2y/15M (7.5M APY). I’m totally okay with Nassib getting a million more per year. But Ogbah only had year 1 guaranteed. Nassib was a bust that turned it around and made himself into a solid 3rd DE. He’s had 2 years of decent production but nothing crazy. I’d be okay giving him 8.0M, guaranteed then 8.5 and 9.5 non-guaranteed. But he should have to prove his value his first year under contract and not have his 2nd year guaranteed. At least with Collins we didn’t do the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 38 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said: But Nassib isn’t that tier of players. You took a tier of players above Nassib in talent, production, and pay. Those are elite edge rushers and elite players always cost a premium. Some end up being values, some end up being overpayments. For their careers when they entered free agency: Flowers - 0 double digit sack seasons, avg 7.0 sacks per year P Smith - 0 double digit sack seasons, avg 6.1 sacks per year Z Smith - 0 double digit sack seasons, avg 4.6 sacks per year Barrett - 1 double digit sack season, avg 6.7 sacks per year (if you remove his 1 great season it's 3.6 sacks per year) Flower - 1 double digit sack season, avg 5.2 sacks per year (if you remove his 1 best season it's 4.0 sacks per yer) Armstead - 1 double digit sack season, avg 3.8 sacks per year (if you remove his 1 best season it's 2.2 sacks per year) Dupree - 1 double digit sack season, avg 6.5 sacks per year (if you remove his 1 best season it's 5.2 sacks per year) All of those guys got between $13M-$18M per year in free agency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Further @jimkelly02 the edge players that were considered top 100 players in free agency this year... • Shaquil Barrett - $15M [Franchise tag] (22.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Everson Griffen - $6M (13.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Matt Judon - $15M [Franchise tag] (16.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Bud Dupree - $15M [Franchise tag] (17 sacks last 2 seasons) • Dante Fowler Jr - $16M (13.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Leonard Williams - $15M [Franchise tag] (5.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Robert Quinn - $14M (18 sacks last 2 seasons) • Jason Pierre-Paul - $13.5M (21 sacks last 2 seasons) • Shaq Lawson - $12M (10.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Emmanuel Ogbah - $7.5M (8.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Vic Beasley - $9.5M (13.0 sacks last 2 seasons) • Mario Addison - $10.3M (18.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Carl Nassib - $8.5M (12.5 sacks last 2 seasons) So of the 13 edge rushers that were considered top 100 free agents, 9 of them got at least $10M per year. With the only exceptions being Griffen, who is aging and on the decline, Ogbah who has 8.5 sacks the last two seasons combined, Beasley who has been okay the last two seasons, and Nassib. He ranks 10th in sack production on that list and was the 11th highest paid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Humble_Beast Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 I'm going wait to see how the season goes down before I start to bash any of the pickups or players... Nassib might be hurt and media doesn't know for all we know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimkelly02 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 6 hours ago, NYRaider said: For their careers when they entered free agency: Flowers - 0 double digit sack seasons, avg 7.0 sacks per year P Smith - 0 double digit sack seasons, avg 6.1 sacks per year Z Smith - 0 double digit sack seasons, avg 4.6 sacks per year Barrett - 1 double digit sack season, avg 6.7 sacks per year (if you remove his 1 great season it's 3.6 sacks per year) Flower - 1 double digit sack season, avg 5.2 sacks per year (if you remove his 1 best season it's 4.0 sacks per yer) Armstead - 1 double digit sack season, avg 3.8 sacks per year (if you remove his 1 best season it's 2.2 sacks per year) Dupree - 1 double digit sack season, avg 6.5 sacks per year (if you remove his 1 best season it's 5.2 sacks per year) All of those guys got between $13M-$18M per year in free agency. Are you seriously comparing Nassib to Barrett, Armstrong, The Smith Bro’s, etc? Theyre clearly!!! A different tier of players and paid significantly more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimkelly02 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 6 hours ago, NYRaider said: Further @jimkelly02 the edge players that were considered top 100 players in free agency this year... • Shaquil Barrett - $15M [Franchise tag] (22.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Everson Griffen - $6M (13.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Matt Judon - $15M [Franchise tag] (16.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Bud Dupree - $15M [Franchise tag] (17 sacks last 2 seasons) • Dante Fowler Jr - $16M (13.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Leonard Williams - $15M [Franchise tag] (5.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Robert Quinn - $14M (18 sacks last 2 seasons) • Jason Pierre-Paul - $13.5M (21 sacks last 2 seasons) • Shaq Lawson - $12M (10.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Emmanuel Ogbah - $7.5M (8.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Vic Beasley - $9.5M (13.0 sacks last 2 seasons) • Mario Addison - $10.3M (18.5 sacks last 2 seasons) • Carl Nassib - $8.5M (12.5 sacks last 2 seasons) So of the 13 edge rushers that were considered top 100 free agents, 9 of them got at least $10M per year. With the only exceptions being Griffen, who is aging and on the decline, Ogbah who has 8.5 sacks the last two seasons combined, Beasley who has been okay the last two seasons, and Nassib. He ranks 10th in sack production on that list and was the 11th highest paid. A lot of those players are paid much more and not in Nassib’s league.... We can’t seriously be comparing those top guys to Nassib.... so let’s look at comparable players.... And you could add Leonard Flyod: 1y, 10M btw Remember: I clearly said his APY wasn’t the main issue. I said guaranteed year 2 was the issue. I see no world where if he signed a 1yr deal we’d be happy to resign him for 9.5M..... Shaq Lawson - very similar contract to Nassib. Also a very poor contract. I can’t see anyway Lawson plays so well Miami would gladly pay him his ‘21 cap hit if he was on the FA market. • Emmanuel Ogbah - 2 year deal, zero guaranteed or dead cap of cut year 2 • Vic Beasley - 1yr deal • Mario Addison - 3yr deal.... zero 2nd year guaranteed. 4.0M dead cap due to SB being given. If Buffalo wants out after year 1 then can designate him a June 1st cut and split dead cap 2.0 in ‘21 and 2.0M in ‘22. And he has averaged 10 sacks/year for the last 4 years, while Nassib has averaged 6 over 2 years. • Leonard Flyod- 1 year deal • Carl Nassib - 5.75M guaranteed RB, salary+WoB 3.75M... 9.5M cap .... were stuck with him at 9.5M because even if he has a subpar year to his last 2 years the cap relief is too low to find a replacement. There’s no way to cut him and spread dead cap out over 2 years. Again... don’t have much issue with the yearly pay. We simply should not have guaranteed year 2. We already would be better off having not signed Nassib and used his money to sign Clowney. It’ll take Nassib hitting his peak ability / meeting ALL expectations to be worth his 2nd year cap hit/pay. How often does a non starter get year nearly 10M guaranteed on year 2 of a deal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dessie Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 14 hours ago, jimkelly02 said: A lot of those players are paid much more and not in Nassib’s league.... We can’t seriously be comparing those top guys to Nassib.... so let’s look at comparable players.... And you could add Leonard Flyod: 1y, 10M btw Remember: I clearly said his APY wasn’t the main issue. I said guaranteed year 2 was the issue. I see no world where if he signed a 1yr deal we’d be happy to resign him for 9.5M..... Shaq Lawson - very similar contract to Nassib. Also a very poor contract. I can’t see anyway Lawson plays so well Miami would gladly pay him his ‘21 cap hit if he was on the FA market. • Emmanuel Ogbah - 2 year deal, zero guaranteed or dead cap of cut year 2 • Vic Beasley - 1yr deal • Mario Addison - 3yr deal.... zero 2nd year guaranteed. 4.0M dead cap due to SB being given. If Buffalo wants out after year 1 then can designate him a June 1st cut and split dead cap 2.0 in ‘21 and 2.0M in ‘22. And he has averaged 10 sacks/year for the last 4 years, while Nassib has averaged 6 over 2 years. • Leonard Flyod- 1 year deal • Carl Nassib - 5.75M guaranteed RB, salary+WoB 3.75M... 9.5M cap .... were stuck with him at 9.5M because even if he has a subpar year to his last 2 years the cap relief is too low to find a replacement. There’s no way to cut him and spread dead cap out over 2 years. Again... don’t have much issue with the yearly pay. We simply should not have guaranteed year 2. We already would be better off having not signed Nassib and used his money to sign Clowney. It’ll take Nassib hitting his peak ability / meeting ALL expectations to be worth his 2nd year cap hit/pay. How often does a non starter get year nearly 10M guaranteed on year 2 of a deal? Still too early to judge Nassib imo but Joyner’s contract is an example of a bad contract. After last year no way would he get $11m this year anywhere else, that’s the gamble of FA I guess, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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