Every throw graded: Ultimate scouting report of Browns' Baker Mayfield

[Mind Character]

7 hours ago, BrownLeader said:

Baker wasn't entirely different his rookie season. He still wasn't reading defenses or sliding quickly through his progressions. He was just ripping passes to who he figured pre snap was open or saw post snap open. Defenses just weren't shading very much to one guy or another like they were this past year. He didn't need to make as many 2nd and 3rd read throws as a rookie.

The core of your take displays a true depth of understanding regarding Baker Mayfield's play that is rarely discussed or grasped.

Matt Waldman from the RSP Portfolio talked in depth about what he called Baker's "Phantom Progression Reading" and how without a certain depth of knowledge of football and quarterbacking one could easily assume that Baker is doing full-field progressions reading when he isn't. There are a wide-variety of tell-tale signs that often get missed on how to identify when he's really reading through progressions versus not.

When we see a QB drop back and lock onto one receiver It's easy to say "that QB just stared the guy down and didn't go through his reads." It's a lot harder to come to the same conclusion for fans when they see a QB look one way then look another. People assume that means the QB at least read 2 progressions, but often that's not the case at all especially when a lot of looking one way or the other can be based on a phantom read or misdirection.

Indeed, Baker he was always often predetermining throws and giving off the illusion of progression reading, but what's changed in year 2 (besides Freddie's failings) was that 1.) Defensive were more prepared to disregard his phantom-read/eye deceptions and just sit on routes he's doesn't look to as the first "read," and 2.) He did not decisively make throws and decisions based on defensive scheming, his lack of next level knowledge of pre-snap look adjustments and cue reading, Freddie's failings, and lack of chemistry with the WRs.

All young QB have issues with pre-snap and post-snap reads and Baker has his issues of recognizing leverage and understanding where to go with the ball based on pre and post snap looks.

He often looks one way and comes back to another but isn't making decisions consistently based on high-level feel and knowledge of the correct pre-snap and post-snap live reading and adjustment.

For the writer of the article, I can applaud anyone that sets out to try to attempt to analyze and evaluate every snap of a given players full season play; however, it's clear that there was a depth of traditional QB scouting analysis understanding missing from his analytic framework including looking at the quality of pre-snap decisions/non-decisions, the defensive play-call versus the offensive play-call success rate, time to drop depth, phantom versus real progression reading, does the QB recognize the leverage and make/miss the throw versus not recognizing the leverage, etc.

All and all still the piece was a worthy endeavor.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Mind Character

[NateDawg]

40 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

But yeah, it always comes back to him not working hard enough for some reason. You know everyone would be reporting that heavily if there was any indication that was true right? It's probably why he and OBJ didn't click, he probably didn't work hard enough with him at the voluntary OTAs.

Read my post and show me where I said that. 

[NateDawg]

47 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

He can certainly improve but we don't need to see a different QB we need to see the QB put in a position to do the things he does well.

100% agree that he was used extremely poorly. Terrible coaching last season.

With that said, the system had little to do with some of the weaknesses I mentioned. The mechanical end of coaching will certainly help if there’s buy-in and the coach working with him is good. Certainly, they should also still play to his strengths but we can all hope that he also greatly improves his weaknesses so we have the total package behind center. I definitely think he can do it, he is still a young quarterback. Hopefully better coaching can be part of Baker’s improvement. 

Edited March 1, 2020 by NateDawg

[buno67]

8 hours ago, BrownLeader said:

"Did Kitchens hold Mayfield back"? is an awful take considering it was Freddie who's offense Mayfield excelled in as a rookie.

Well before the season Wylie said it was Zamp’s offense and became a huge influence and stated he was in control of redzone plays. We all wrote it off in the preseason, saying it was Wylie being a disgruntled employee because he was fired. Well the season plays out. I thought Wylie was being a jerk about him losing his job but really he was just spitting facts  

so we really can’t say Baker’s rookie year was success because of Freddie because after last season and the stuff said about Zamp  

 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

People always point to coaching or talent, but I’m going to keep blaming the lack of continuity as the real issue.

If you want to see someone progress at anything, they need proper instruction, a consistent message and time. You can’t change the offense/scheme, the coaches, etc. every year and expect progress. 

When the message is changed every offseason, you don’t progress, you start over.

 

[Thomas5737]

7 hours ago, NateDawg said:

Read my post and show me where I said that. 

Well it's been said and implied many times and you said "it won't happen unless he puts in the extra work" so I assumed that meant he hasn't been putting in the extra work.

[Thomas5737]

1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

People always point to coaching or talent, but I’m going to keep blaming the lack of continuity as the real issue.

If you want to see someone progress at anything, they need proper instruction, a consistent message and time. You can’t change the offense/scheme, the coaches, etc. every year and expect progress. 

When the message is changed every offseason, you don’t progress, you start over.

 

Baker has always been a rhythm passer and we saw no rhythm on offense last year. We need an uptempo offense to get the most out of him. Certainly not getting to the line with 4 seconds on the clock.

[buno67]

11 hours ago, BrownLeader said:

Baker's worst play of the year by far was the shovel pass interception. By far. It demonstrated his biggest issues his 2nd season... predetermining his throws and throwing picks.

by the way, that play/pass was predetermined by the coaches. You have only two outside WRs, who are going vertical right away, mainly to get the corners out of there. They have a TE who is doing nothing but blocking. The RB is supposed to try and sell a run fake. So there are literally no other passing options on that play. So I dont know how you can say that was baker predetermining the throw himself. Also bakers eyes arent there to watch the backside 3tech, or you could assume that Bit, the best lineman on the team could properly seal him off. Hell that game was prolly one of Bits worst, or at least that first quarter was one of the worst quarters of his career because not only did his bad blocking lead to that pick, he also had the bad block that lead to him getting blown up, which result in him kicking the ball out of Chubbs hands.

[buno67]

11 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Baker has always been a rhythm passer and we saw no rhythm on offense last year. We need an uptempo offense to get the most out of him. Certainly not getting to the line with 4 seconds on the clock.

YEP! AVP noticed that within his first two months on the job. hence why he is changing his drop back. 

[buno67]

10 hours ago, bruceb said:

This.

He never looked elsewhere.

He is a not even a one-read...he is an only read.

He should have seen Hunt immediately.

shouldn't the only read have been the screen to Chubb? because the blocking is being based on that. You literally have everyone playing towards or from the boundary side. You have Hunt going across the formation and running to the field side. He would have had to abandon his read/keys or blown through them to get to Hunt. With that play coming off of screen blocking, he is never going to make his way to Hunt because the blocking was never going to hold up. He should have never seen Hunt immediately cause his eyes should have never been over there. You can tell cause after the little fake, Baker gets his head right back to the boundary side.  So easy to criticize, when we literally have no idea what he is being told to do or being told to look at. 

Also you can say he is listening to the coaches because it seems like Landry was set up to get open in that area with a route by OBJ that seemed to free him up. He could have easily been told, look at Jarvis, if he has positioning lay the ball in there which he did, the DB never had the position to make a great play on the ball.  or if Jarvis doesnt get open, get the ball out to chubb who will have blocking, for a safe dump off. 

[Rod Johnson]

11 hours ago, BrownLeader said:

This "crown jewel" is telling of this guy's analysis. Pretty sure Baker threw to the most difficult option possible here and just got bailed out by a phenomenal catch. This play isn't busted. It's a screen and you expect pressure. On his right Hunt could've walked the last 5 yds in. And Chubb is also open on the left flat with blocking.

Baker's worst play of the year by far was the shovel pass interception. By far. It demonstrated his biggest issues his 2nd season... predetermining his throws and throwing picks.

On the int gifs....it's the decision making that should stand on those, not that Landry avoids obvious traffic or Ratley can't uncover or Njoko shockingly can't make a tough grab. Landry is helplessly covered there. Ratley ain't the guy on 4th down....and Njoko clearly isn't the one for the tough grab in traffic.

"Did Kitchens hold Mayfield back"? is an awful take considering it was Freddie who's offense Mayfield excelled in as a rookie.

Imho... Baker wasn't entirely different his rookie season. He still wasn't reading defenses or sliding quickly through his progressions. He was just ripping passes to who he figured pre snap was open or saw post snap open. Defenses just weren't shading very much to one guy or another like they were this past year. He didn't need to make as many 2nd and 3rd read throws as a rookie.

I'm not taking anything away from the points you're making, but I'd honestly want to know who else runs a screen pass off play action to the guy you're throwing a screen to?  I think that play might have been busted or else just terrible design (or I'm missing the part where that's actually a play?)

That play makes no sense to me.  Why would you fake a handoff to the same side as your pulling olinemen?  Then throw to the guy you brought the D's attention to in the first place?

Edited March 1, 2020 by Rod Johnson

[NudeTayne]

*considers starting a third Baker pile-on thread*

Edited March 1, 2020 by NudeTayne

[Mega Ron]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

Well it's been said and implied many times and you said "it won't happen unless he puts in the extra work" so I assumed that meant he hasn't been putting in the extra work.

When you assume you make yourself an ***.

Nailed it.

[Bonanza23]

3 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

Certainly not getting to the line with 4 seconds on the clock.

“He can’t read a defense”. 

[buno67]

3 hours ago, Rod Johnson said:

I'm not taking anything away from the points you're making, but I'd honestly want to know who else runs a screen pass off play action to the guy you're throwing a screen to?  I think that play might have been busted or else just terrible design (or I'm missing the part where that's actually a play?)

That play makes no sense to me.  Why would you fake a handoff to the same side as your pulling olinemen?  Then throw to the guy you brought the D's attention to in the first place?

honestly think Hunt was a decoy to mess with the safeties. I wonder if they would have gone back to the play and tell baker to look for Hunt earlier, since they didnt cover him the first time around. Or run the same play but with different protection scheme to get it to Hunt...