mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: I anxiously await the results of your model lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nex_Gen Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 FWIW, Michael Fabiano, NFL Fantasy analysts starts off this recent podcast with this recollection. He lives in LA. https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9yc3MuYXJ0MTkuY29tL25mbC1mYW50YXN5&episode=Z2lkOi8vYXJ0MTktZXBpc29kZS1sb2NhdG9yL1YwL19Wa2pmcklxYTZjZTBpZ2tKUkoyYVl5MGpBdm8zOTY3WWF6NXB6ZWlRQWc&hl=en&ved=2ahUKEwjgndvS3-XoAhWGXM0KHUO3B1kQjrkEegQIARAG&ep=6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLO Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, SlevinKelevra said: but just a few pages ago you told me your "model" has been dead accurate. I guess I see what passes for accuracy. Thanks. The model is absolutely accurate tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLO Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, mission27 said: As someone who was on the ground I can confirm this was happening in CA. mission likely has antibodies (along with many other diseases) Also wouldn’t be surprised. Had several family members and coworkers who were wiped out with general flu like symptoms and upper respiratory problems that lingered for a few weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, mission27 said: I anxiously await the results of your model I'm not interested in making one, but I will tell you what 1) *IF* I did, I would disclose its methods so it could be scrutinized and improved. If I were concerned about IP or the like I'd publish it to a preprint server for archival purposes and to stake my claim on its ownership 2) It would be conducted in a real scientific/math computing environment (not Excel with "look at me I guess you can't read a graph" conditional formatting) 3) It would involve construction of a set of 1000's of simultaneous coupled network/node spatially diffuse advective SEIR-type delay PDEs 4) it would actually have quantitative predictive capability 5) It would then be run in a Markov-Chain style MonteCarlo simulator for thousands to millions of runs so that it would have statistically valuable properties such as confidence intervals, etc. Edited April 13, 2020 by SlevinKelevra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, TLO said: The model is absolutely accurate tbh to +/- 10^(0.53) ? Wow, amazing. So write it up and publish it to a preprint server. Get the final results tabulated in a year and submit it to Nature or Science. It will surely pass peer-review. Edited April 13, 2020 by SlevinKelevra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SlevinKelevra said: 6 minutes ago, mission27 said: I anxiously await the results of your model I'm not interested in making one, but I will tell you what 1) *IF* I did, I would disclose its methods so it could be scrutinized and improved. If I were concerned about IP or the like I'd publish it to a preprint server for archival purposes and to stake my claim on its ownership 2) It would be conducted in a real scientific/math computing environment (not Excel conditional formatting) 3) It would involve construction of a set of 1000's of simultaneous coupled network/node spatially diffuse advective SEIR-type delay PDEs 4) it would actually have quantitative predictive capability 5) It would then be run in a Markov-Chain style MonteCarlo simulator for thousands to millions of runs so that it would have statistically valuable properties such as confidence intervals, etc. Lol buddy the model doesn't run in Excel, Excel is just the front end for purposes of sharing within the epidemiological community and various buddies on Wall Street, these people are sometimes not the most tech savy My issue with sharing methods has nothing to do with IP it has more to do with not wanting to get into debates with folks on a football forum about how the model is broken because we didn't account for xyz I find the conditional formatting very helpful personally The rest of this is a bad take tbhwy, this isn't meant to be forward looking its an index and running a billion monte carlos isnt gonna help you when we're throwing in arbitrary adjustments for the smugness of various countries Again tho I look forward to seeing the results of your model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mega Ron Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) 31 minutes ago, mission27 said: In fact I'd be shocked if that wasn't the case tbh I don't think so. Edit. Not that you'd be shocked for it not to be the case. I just don't think the colds/chest infections that were floating about back then we're Covid-19. Edited April 13, 2020 by Mega Ron Needed an edit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nex_Gen Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, TLO said: Also wouldn’t be surprised. Had several family members and coworkers who were wiped out with general flu like symptoms and upper respiratory problems that lingered for a few weeks. I work in a call center with small cubicles. Had a co-worker who recently traveled in the Fall (not directly to China) multiple times, who became sick in early January. Her cough was so bad I questioned why she came to work at all for those 2-3 weeks she was exhibiting all around me and my co-workers. About a week and a half into hers, my other co-worker develops a cough. His was pretty mild. Lost his voice for a good week and took a few days off work and he seemed okay again. In the middle of his illness, I developed a cough. My symptoms was strictly a dry cough and profuse cold sweating all through the night. I was sitting in my bed coughing literally every 10 seconds and struggling to keep my throat cleared, then deposited mucus/phlegm in the morning shower for about two weeks. Slowly went away and was good after that. My co-worker, who was originally the sick one, tells me she had pneumonia at some point after the fact towards the end. Her sickness-to-recovery outlasted me and my other co-workers as her's got pretty bad, but she eventually recovered. She sits in between the both of us at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, mission27 said: My issue with sharing methods has nothing to do with IP it has more to do with not wanting to get into debates with folks on a football forum about how the model is broken because we didn't account for xyz tbh your issue is that any peer reviewed publication will make you disclose conflicts of interest so you'll have to describe how you and TLO spent most of the "model making" time blowing each other. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, mission27 said: this isn't meant to be forward looking its an index "lol buddy" so then quit calling it a model models predict system output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLO Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: tbh your issue is that any peer reviewed publication will make you disclose conflicts of interest so you'll have to describe how you and TLO spent most of the "model making" time blowing each other. Only losers can’t multitask tbh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, SlevinKelevra said: "lol buddy" so then quit calling it a model models predict system output. I respect the smugness of coming at the MoL with a full on ****zkreig although I have hard time believing it comes from a base of any sort of justified smugness You are new around here though so we will see, maybe you are smugger than you look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: tbh your issue is that any peer reviewed publication will make you disclose conflicts of interest so you'll have to describe how you and TLO spent most of the "model making" time blowing each other. We have a strict Chinese wall mission oversees a team in India running the numbers TLO provides input on smugness adjustments, Taylor Swift quotes, and is mostly there to look pretty We unfortunately are separated during the lockdown so there is no risk of accidental BJs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: We unfortunately are separated during the lockdown so there is no risk of accidental BJs What the hell is an "accidental" BJ? You trip and fall @TLO? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts