Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, mistakey said:

Yeah ive said multiple times i didnt think this was a himanity ending event and it would hve a fatality rate of 2 percent which was simply the Best scientists early estimates.  I was worried about food shortsges and lockdowns, both of which came.  So, uh, good one you got me

Ah I see you were making a more nuanced point and someone is trying to twist your original argument to be a ****.  Makes sense.

[mistakey]

4 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Ah I see you were making a more nuanced point and someone is trying to twist your original argument to be a ****.  Makes sense.

Bro go back and look at your seasonality posts.  Seriously.  Do it.  Even @naptownskinsfan is parroting your nonsense and gettin sad when people call it out.  Ive had you reframe it and clarify it multiple times because when someone produces eveidence contrary to what you say you change it so you dont look wrong because youre incapable of doing so.  In your latest one you said it would be a major reason why case numbers fell, even if its less then social aspects.

 

the reality is that hot *** texas is seeing a case increase when they are relaxing their social controls. 

[TLO]

27 minutes ago, mistakey said:

Just cause rhinoviruses and other coronaviruses have seasonal effects doesnt mean that this one does.  In fact scientists at johns hopkins and other top notch research institutions have said the seasonal aspect of this disease is nothing compred to other social measures such as masks and social disrancing.

 

and yeah for as much **** @mission27 gave me for bein wrong of course im gonna bring it back in his face for being a dumbass and givin people a dose of what they want to hear instead of the slighyly less rosy truth. Especially since 1) mods and webby wont/didnt push back on his pseudo science mol bull that people take seriously 2) hes incapable of admitting hes wrong 3) hes wrong 

 

there are reasons to be hopeful - long term immunity is one, masks work is another.  The heat has a positive yet marginal effect when compared to other factors, but its funny to see @mission27 @TLO cling to it 

1) The MoL is a statistical model tracking cases. Nothing more, nothing less. Guys like Nate Silver are doing the same tbh. It is not intended to be medical or scientific advice, nor do we claim it to be. And again, if someone bases their life decisions of a message board power ranking system of countries based on smugness and taylor swift, they have a whole lot bigger issue than us.

2) when I have clinged to seasonality for one? Regardless, it seems that the heat may have a positive impact, and we hope to see more of that as it gets warmer. Why is that a bad thing? Any positive impact helps, and it getting warmer is not going to preclude the MoL from practicing social distancing measures, including wearing masks, as we have already been doing. So feel free to try to dunk on us for this, but it really makes no sense, and it makes you look pretty petty with your little vendetta here. 

[mistakey]

And before you retort “yeah pot kettle” ive admitted i was wrong about the small marginal seasonality effects and multiple state peaks of both of which you were right

[mistakey]

Just now, TLO said:

1) The MoL is a statistical model tracking cases. Nothing more, nothing less. Guys like Nate Silver are doing the same tbh. It is not intended to be medical or scientific advice, nor do we claim it to be. And again, if someone bases their life decisions of a message board power ranking system of countries based on smugness and taylor swift, they have a whole lot bigger issue than us.

2) when I have clinged to seasonality for one? Regardless, it seems that the heat may have a positive impact, and we hope to see more of that as it gets warmer. Why is that a bad thing? Any positive impact helps, and it getting warmer is not going to preclude the MoL from practicing social distancing measures, including wearing masks, as we have already been doing. So feel free to try to dunk on us for this, but it really makes no sense, and it makes you look pretty petty with your little vendetta here. 

1) naive and you know it.  You know that people look to you all.  You should keep this in mind instead of saying *shrug we smug *
 

2) it getting warmer and people thinking that it getting warm will save them without wearing a mask or socially distancing is a real thing. 

You guys got what you want- you got people looking to u for advice

act like it

 

[naptownskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, TLO said:

1) The MoL is a statistical model tracking cases. Nothing more, nothing less. Guys like Nate Silver are doing the same tbh. It is not intended to be medical or scientific advice, nor do we claim it to be. And again, if someone bases their life decisions of a message board power ranking system of countries based on smugness and taylor swift, they have a whole lot bigger issue than us.

2) when I have clinged to seasonality for one? Regardless, it seems that the heat may have a positive impact, and we hope to see more of that as it gets warmer. Why is that a bad thing? Any positive impact helps, and it getting warmer is not going to preclude the MoL from practicing social distancing measures, including wearing masks, as we have already been doing. So feel free to try to dunk on us for this, but it really makes no sense, and it makes you look pretty petty with your little vendetta here. 

Now that Larry David is giving the advice, I'm all behind it 

[mistakey]

And until you start acting lije it im gonna keep on arguing on a forum with you all cause one thats what forums are for and no one else is doing it

[Danger]

Anyone else heard the correlation between Vitamin D deficiency and Coronvavirus mortality? Make sure to spend some time outside or it might be worth taking a Vitamin D supplement. ~70% of Americans are said to be vitamin D deficient to at least some extent.

[mission27]

Lets put this dumb argument to bed.  This is what the MoL said originally that started all this:

Quote

 

I think within a couple of months things will return to quasi-normal through:

1. Treatment

2. Testing

3. Tracking cases and contacts 

4. Quarantine / isolation for those who are sick or suspected cases

5. Teleworking continuing where possible and other LIMITED social distancing, which may include stuff like sports continuing for a period of time without fans or less seating at bars / restaurants 

6. WARM WEATHER

It will require us to accept some risk and some increase in deaths, but is better than the alternative (staying inside for 18 months waiting for a vaccine that may never come)

 

It is now nearly 2 months later and things are starting to get back to some level of normality in Europe and much of the US, and will be heading in that direction soon even in NYC, based on all of the above. 

This is what Harvard said in their study released recently showing ~25% reduction in transmission from warm weather:

Quote

 

Our projections suggest warmer and more humid times of the year, and locations, may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number, helping with efforts to contain the pandemic and build response capacity.

 

https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid19

The MoL never once said seasonality would end the virus or that seasonality was the only piece of the strategy. 

Mbtl's response at the time was to say basically seasonality had no impact because 'look at Australia' and when the MoL pointed out that Australia was flattening he said lol no its growing exponentially.  Well look at Australia now.  

This is a dumb argument, we all agree at this point that seasonality plays some role in slowing transmission and nobody (on FF) has ever claimed it was going to stop the virus in its tracks, so lets please move on

[mission27]

11 minutes ago, mistakey said:

the reality is that hot *** texas is seeing a case increase when they are relaxing their social controls. 

There is no increase in cases in Texas.  There is an increase in reported cases.  They are literally testing 45k people a day instead of 10k people a day they were a few weeks ago.  Reported cases are guaranteed to go up when you increase testing by 350% in a short period of time. 

If we start to see a meaningful spike in deaths, hospitalizations, or positive case % in Texas then that tells us they are relaxing distancing measures too quickly.  Until then you are basically punishing the state of Texas for doing what everyone told them to (expand testing).

And yes I agree with you that relaxing social distancing will lead to more cases than not relaxing social distancing and that this is true with or without seasonality.  Nobody has said otherwise.

[mistakey]

13 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Looking to be a pretty hot week ahead, but still colder at night.  

Once the humidity rolls in at the end of the month, then we will see this thing kicked out for a bit.  

A post in which you @mission27 liked.  How else should someone take “then we will see tbis thing kicked out for a bit”. Literally 2 pages ago.

[naptownskinsfan]

44 minutes ago, mistakey said:

Just cause rhinoviruses and other coronaviruses have seasonal effects doesnt mean that this one does.  In fact scientists at johns hopkins and other top notch research institutions have said the seasonal aspect of this disease is nothing compred to other social measures such as masks and social disrancing.

 

and yeah for as much **** @mission27 gave me for bein wrong of course im gonna bring it back in his face for being a dumbass and givin people a dose of what they want to hear instead of the slighyly less rosy truth. Especially since 1) mods and webby wont/didnt push back on his pseudo science mol bull that people take seriously 2) hes incapable of admitting hes wrong 3) hes wrong 

 

there are reasons to be hopeful - long term immunity is one, masks work is another.  The heat has a positive yet marginal effect when compared to other factors, but its funny to see @mission27 @TLO cling to it 

You can also do a Google search and see how torn people are on the seasonality of Covid-19.  The thing that most people seem to agree on is that heat and humidity (humidity actually being more important) won't stop the virus, but it might slow it.  The virus can stay in the air for eight minutes before falling, so what happens when we have 100% humidity instead of the normal 50%?  

The rosy truth is that half of the deaths on the east coast are in LTC facilities.  We have locked those people with compromised immune systems and who this disease targets with people who are getting sick.  In Maryland at least, there was no plan to change this until very, very recently.  Doctors talked about how could live and die by getting a ventilator, we just closed the doors to these places and said "Let God sort them out."  The people who decided that should be brought up on charges of negligence.  

At one point for us in Maryland, a week's worth of deaths was 591.  Guess how many were in LTC?  571.  

Why most places are bucking the decisions to open up a little more, with common sense restrictions, absolutely baffles me.  LA's mayor is saying the city won't be fully open until there is a vaccine, and until recently, Newsom was set to extend the stay at home orders, as was Hogan in Maryland.  It makes zero sense to me.  

I'm not discounting the fact that people need to be smart and not bring the disease home to grandma.  My grandma just turned 93.  When we had our first case at work, I took a leave of absence for five weeks so I could be around her and do things for her.  That was the toughest decision of my life, moreso than buying a house.  I also had to decide when we reopened work this week to go back, and not being able to be around her now.  We have to make sure we are taking care of our elderly- family or not- but there are no reasons why we can't be reopening things right now in most areas.  

[mission27]

Just now, mistakey said:

A post in which you @mission27 liked.  How else should someone take “then we will see tbis thing kicked out for a bit”. Literally 2 pages ago.

I do expect to see a dramatic reduction in deaths per day in DC metro over the next month.  Lets check back in on June 17th and see which one of us was right.

[naptownskinsfan]

11 minutes ago, Danger said:

Anyone else heard the correlation between Vitamin D deficiency and Coronvavirus mortality? Make sure to spend some time outside or it might be worth taking a Vitamin D supplement. ~70% of Americans are said to be vitamin D deficient to at least some extent.

Since I work inside quite a bit and don't get out until the summer time, I started taking a vitamin D supplement earlier this year.  

[mistakey]

I guess having your opinions cover all bases makes you able to be right 100% of the time as long as people dont call you out for all the other wrong takes