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Packfanfb's "The Packers Aren't Doing Anything So I'm Bored" Mock

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Posted (edited)

Current Cap Space: $12,876,177 (according to Over the Cap) 

Resignings

Tramon Williams - 2 years, $6 million (2020 cap hit - $2.5m) -- Tramon is still a useful asset on the back-end, a leader on/off the field and actually had a damn good year last year. 

Trades

Pre-draft, Packers send Lane Taylor and 7th round 2021 pick (conditional to become 6th round pick) to Browns for TE David Njoku.  

Image result for david njoku

I've said before, this trade makes a lot of sense for both teams. Browns are looking to dump Njoku and right now guys are being traded left and right for little compensation in return. This is actually a good deal for the Browns who need OL help and it gives us a consolation prize to missing out on Hooper. Njoku is a better option than Delanie Walker and this gives him a chance to revive his career. 

Moving Taylor gives us about $4.1m in cap relief and the addition of Njoku for 2020 costs us about $3m. A net gain in cap space of about $1m. 

FA Signings

Taylor Gabriel - WR - 1 year, $3.5m

Image result for taylor gabriel

I have this feeling you're going to hear that the "Packers were never really 'in' on Robby Anderson." Instead, I think the Packers go the cheaper option and add Gabriel who has prior experience with LaFleur, gives us an experienced slot option in our offense and doesn't cost us a comp pick. WRs are starting to go for cheap and we may be able to get TG even cheaper than this, but I figure he'll be looking for a 1-year deal so he can try again next year absent a mid-year extension. 

Cap entering draft = around $7.5m-$8m 

Draft

Round 1 - Pick 30 - Ross Blacklock (IDL) - TCU

Image result for ross blacklock

Blacklock may not last this long, but I'm banking on a run of WRs in the mid-late first round and a gift gets pushed down to us at 30. At 6'4", 305, Blacklock is the prototypical IDL we're looking for to compliment Clark inside. By choosing to ignore the position in FA, getting Blacklock at 30 would help to immediately bolster our DL. 

 

Round 2 - Pick 62 - Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) - USC

Image result for michael pittman jr draft

Even with the short-term addition of Gabriel, Packers need a long-term No. 2 candidate at WR. After not going that route in round 1 with Blacklock sitting there, they grab Pittman in round 2. At 6'4", he has the size Gute likes at the position and could be the answer on the outside opposite Adams. 

 

Round 3 - Pick 94 - Ben Bartch (OT) - St. John

Image result for ben bartch

Bartch is a developmental OT prospect with good movement skills (former converted TE). Had a strong Senior Bowl week against D-1 competition on the other side. May not be ready day 1, but should be a quality backup option in his first year while we ride with Wagner at the starter at RT.

 

Round 4 - Pick 136 - Darrynton Evans (RB) - Appalachian St. 

Image result for darrynton evans

I really like Evans and don't know if he'll last this long after his combine (4.41 forty). One-cut, outside-zone RB who should fit in well in competing with a 2nd-year Dexter Williams for playing time behind Jones/Williams and potentially becomes a viable replacement for Jones if he walks after next year. 

 

Round 5 - Pick 175 - Jonathan Garvin (EDGE) - Miami FL

Image result for jonathan garvin miami

Had Garvin in my last mock because I think the guy is going to be a Packer. Read something recently that if we use Gary as the measuring stick for a "Pettine EDGE prospect" Garvin is the closest thing to it in the draft. We need EDGE depth with the loss of Fackrell and Gary being far from proven yet, plus you can never have too many pass rushers. 

 

Round 6 - Pick 192 - Willie Gay Jr. (ILB) - Miss. St. 

Image result for willie gay jr

Same pick from prior mock. Guy punched out his own teammate which is why he may still be available in the 6th round despite his workout, and also why I take a shot on him. Frankly, I want some more nasty added to the ILB room. Gay flies around the ball and could be a hidden gem or out of football in 2 years based on his character. Worth the risk in the 6th round. 

 

Round 6 - Pick 208 - Lavert Hill (CB) - Michigan 

Image result for lavert hill

Average size at 5'10", 190 but good at press man and shifty enough to play in the slot. Future slot guy who is experienced enough to play on the boundary. 

 

Round 6 - Pick 209 - Shaquille Quarterman (ILB) - Miami FL

Image result for shaquille quarterman

Basically the replacement-candidate for Goodson here. Even with the addition of Kirksey, GB doesn't have a down-hill thumper prospect on the team and that's exactly what Quarterman is...an old school thumper. Basically a two-down type player, which is why he's there in the 6th round. 

 

Round 7 - Pick 224 - Danny Pinter (IOL) - Ball State

Image result for danny pinter ball state

Same pick from prior mock. Converted TE who can move (9.62 RAS). Played tackle last year in college but probably better suited for guard in the NFL. 

 

Round 7 - Pick 242 - Carlos Davis (NT) - Nebraska

Image result for carlos davis nebraska

Same pick from prior mock. Another high RAS guy (9.61). Basically a big guy (315 Ibs) who can run fast for his size (4.82). 

 

Go.

Edited by packfanfb

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I like everything except Gabriel, and even that's the player more than the position. 

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I like it a lot. With one exception I would want us to double dip with the WRs

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Overall … good job.  Like the positions; don't know much about the players.

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You had me with the trade for Njoku, you got me hook line and sinker with Pittman.  One of my favorite players for round 2.  I would be a really happy camper if all this went down!

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I think the Njoku trade is the most realistic trade we can forge to send Taylor on his way. Not a fan of Blacklock because he's terrible in the run game as I've said before. Pittman is very interesting as it breaks the mold of the shorter, speedster, slot-esque receiver we all feel we need. The problem is that he's sluggish and should probably put on 15 lb.s and move to TE given that he's a physical receiver who blocks well. I think Bartch can be had Day 3, but he's the developmental prospect you want IMHO. The rest of it, with the exception of Hill, is great.

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54 minutes ago, Joe said:

Not a fan of Blacklock because he's terrible in the run game as I've said before.

Again, I ask, where exactly are you getting this from?

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8 minutes ago, MaximusGluteus said:

Again, I ask, where exactly are you getting this from?

Seems he just keeps saying it, thinking that will make it truth.   Not what I see from the film.  

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1 hour ago, Joe said:

Pittman is very interesting as it breaks the mold of the shorter, speedster, slot-esque receiver we all feel we need. The problem is that he's sluggish and should probably put on 15 lb.s and move to TE given that he's a physical receiver who blocks well. 

Im not trying to follow you around here.

4.5 is NOT sluggish. He plays up to that speed fine. 

Quit making tall thick WRs TE's. Lordt. <not directed at just you.

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31 minutes ago, MaximusGluteus said:

Again, I ask, where exactly are you getting this from?

Again, I tell you: Lance Zierlein and The Draft Network. 

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You get Pinter, you get a like.

If you could've snagged Zuniga, you wouldve got two footballs.

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15 minutes ago, Joe said:

Again, I tell you: Lance Zierlein and The Draft Network. 

The Draft Network writeups on Blacklock read nothing like your posts.   I guess Lance Zierlein doesn't like Blacklock.   

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3 hours ago, Joe said:

Again, I tell you: Lance Zierlein and The Draft Network. 

You also said "and other sources", but since you've finally narrowed it down to these two, let's go ahead and look at EXACTLY what they say.  I highlighted the sections in red that would most likely apply to playing the run:

TDN - Marino

PROS: He’s got the goods: juice, power, size and motor to make plays. Love how he works to the edges of blocks and powers through gaps. Does well to place his hands and play with extension to control at the point of attack. Timing and placement of his hands is outstanding and he does a great job of finding leverage points on blockers to dispose of them when he’s ready. Effective with his swipes, chops and crosses to clear contact. Plenty of pop in his strikes to jolt pads and control blockers. Keeps his pads low and plays with consistently outstanding leverage to maximize the power in his frame. Frequently defended multiple gaps and faced double teams while holding his own. He’s a bully when pushing the pocket and is a load moving forward. Has enough flexibility throughout his frame to corner and change directions. Overall quite slippery with the fluidity in his frame to work laterally and carry speed through sharp turns.  Does a good job of diminishing the surface area available for blockers to get their hands on his frame. 2017 Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year. Upside to serve in multiple alignments.

CONS: Missed 2018 with an Achilles injury but was outstanding in 2017 and 2019. Has room to grow in terms of processing the run and reading blocks so that he can most effectively attack - as that develops it’s exciting to consider how much better he can get because the traits and physical tools are so outstanding. Will have a stylistic/technical transition at the next level after working from a four-point stance and executing all the stunts involved in the TCU defense. 

BEST TRAIT - Power, Juice

WORST TRAIT - Processing

RED FLAGS - 2018 Achilles Injury

NFL COMP - Gerald McCoy 

Ross Blacklock is a rare exciting defensive prospect from the Big Twelve with all the tools needed to be a dynamic playmaker in the NFL. While there will be quite a bit for him to acclimate to at the next level, Blacklock has the size, length, power, flexibility, athleticism and technique needed to develop. He often two-gapped at TCU but I like him inside even fronts as well, making him a prospect with all the versatility needed to execute in a defensive front that is multiple by alignment. Blacklock needs to develop his processing skills but his ceiling is exciting given how physically talented he is and how he already applies those gifts on the field to make plays. He deserves to be among the first interior defensive linemen selected in the Draft and has the upside to become a building block for an NFL defense. 

FINAL EVALUATION 

So the only negative thing Marino says here is that he "has room to grow in terms of processing".  Nowhere does he say that Blacklock is "terrible in the run game", or even bad, for that matter.

 

TDN - Crabbs

Hand Technique/LengthNeeds to work on cleaner disengages but he's definitely got the right idea — heavy hands and good length to jolt blockers but he's too often busted late trying to shed or outside the breast plate, which negates some of his strength in these situations. Hands are fluid when he wants to rip or push/pull.

Competitive ToughnessLove his motor. He needs to work on his pad level, too many double teams or one on ones will get his pads up and neutralize his forward burst or anchor ability. He's strong as hell, so if you can get discipline into his run fits he's going to be an absolute bear to get moved off the POA and still does well enough as is.

Two Gap AbilityGot the length and hand power to stack up blockers in one on one scenarios. Was a terror here against OKST and PUR in 2019. Shows patience to read plays developing and feel where to flow when tasked with stacking up blockers. He'd do well in a 5T role or 4i alignment to hold ground in the B-gap.

Gap Penetration SkillsHis L-step provides a good deal of mobility and allows him to thrive stepping around potential contact and bursting up the field. If you pull, odds are pretty strong he's going to find his way onto your hip and shows fluid lateral mobility to crash into the mesh point if unimpeded at the snap.

Tackling He's got a nice tackle radius and is a violent finisher when he's able to get a wrap on ball carriers. Closing burst is strong for his size and he'll scrape down the line in his gap and slam the door shut on cut backs. He's been found 10+ yards down field on screens and scramble plays as a rally defender.

Flexibility Consistent application of low frame isn't there yet but when he's got it right, man — he's good. He's got loose hips and rotational mobility to get skinny and slip through gaps when faced with reach blocks or down blocks. His ceiling here is pretty high and allows for sudden COD with his dynamic lower half.

Pass Rush Counters - He's got awareness to get a fit on the wrist of blockers but doesn't always lift or hammer it off his frame. He can be slow to implement a counter and as a result he'll get bogged down trying to get defenders off his body too often — more work here should bring more of the penetration flashes he shows with rip moves.

First Step QuicknessHe's capable of blowing centers back into the lap of the quarterback — powerful and twitched up athlete that will build force in short spaces. He's slippery in lateral steps as well and can vacate gaps quickly to force whiffs up front. This was evident in the PUR game and the KAN game.

Feet/COD - Light on his feet. Has little issue sticking his foot in the ground and driving back inside against his momentum. He's fluid to cross face of blockers, not just out of his stance but also on his secondary steps as an interior rusher while gaining ground on the quarterback. Fluid athlete for his size.

Versatility B-gap defender is where he'll thrive, though he was used in 0T over the center in some situations. Love him in a penetration role with more polish but he does offer 2-gap ability and the versatility to plug into any defensive system or primary responsibility at the next level. Promising defender. 

---

Best Trait - Lateral Quickness

Worst Trait - Pad Level

Best Film - Oklahoma State (2019)

Worst Film - Oklahoma (2019)

Red Flags - 2018 Achilles INJ

Summary - Ross Blacklock is a scheme diverse talent who has all the physical tools needed to be a disruptive presence up front on an NFL defensive line. Blacklock's length, hand power, lateral agility and first step quickness are all plus qualities and once he's able to polish his pad level/leverage and hand placement, Blacklock will have a chance to be an impact defender. His projection is best as a 3T in an even front, where his athleticism can shine through and allow penetration into the backfield. 

Updated: 02/08/2020

So what Crabbs is basically saying is that he's got the ability but needs to be more consistent and can be with coaching and development.  Again, nowhere does he say that Blacklock is "terrible in the run game" (or bad).  He says he has the tools and needs to refine them.

 

NFL.com - Zuerlein

Prospect grade:  6.39 (will be starter within first two seasons)

Overview

Flashes menacing disruptive qualities as a gap seeker, but is just ordinary when forced to sit and take on blocks. Blacklock rebounded from a 2018 Achilles injury and showed off basketball quickness that was often too much for a single blocker. However, his technique and hand usage need work, as he's inconsistent holding the point and keeping his feet. He's a hit-or-miss run defender, but he's a relentless pass rusher with elite lateral quickness and change of direction to exploit interior galoots and open pathways to the pocket. Blacklock needs development as a one-gapping three-technique with rare movement talent and intriguing rush potential.

Strengths

  • Extremely athletic and agile in short spaces
  • Knees stay bent and pads stay low
  • Snappy initial quickness
  • Can find and split a double-team crevice
  • Leverage and leg drive to play under and through edge blocks
  • Rush instincts of a defensive end
  • Never in one place for long as a rusher
  • Elite lateral quickness and directional change unlock his disruption
  • Changes speeds and stride length to tilt blockers and loosen the edge
  • Plays with fast hands and sudden arm-over
  • Impossible for only one player to mirror
  • Relentless pass-rush energy

Weaknesses

  • Missed all of 2018 with Achilles tear
  • Drops head into double-team challenges
  • Inconsistent as two-gapper
  • Struggles keeping pads square on the move
  • Needs improved hand placement and angles for quicker shed
  • Knocked around by interior power
  • Ends up on the ground too often
  • Loses rush momentum to a stiff punch
  • Failed to convert pressures to sacks at a steady clip

Zuerlein is pretty critical of him, but Zuerlein is critical of everyone, so I'm not surprised.  Again, though, he doesn't say that Blacklock is "terrible in the run game", and he gives him some pretty good praise when listing his strengths.  The worst he says is that he's "hit-or-miss" in the run game, but obviously he thinks he has really good tools and says he "needs development", which is to be expected of any rookie DL save for a very select few.

 

I'm going to go ahead and add one more source:  PFF.  They have him ranked as their 5th best IDL in the class, behind Brown, Kinlaw, Elliott, and Davidson.

Pro Football Focus 2020 NFL Draft Position Rankings: Interior Defenders - Mike Renner

5. ROSS BLACKLOCK, TCU

Draft Board Rank: 39th

With all the stunts and slants TCU’s defensive line throws at their opponents, properly evaluating their defensive linemen can be a chore. You simply don’t get as many true one-on-one interactions to see how a guy wins. Even still, Blacklock showed of NFL-level physical tools on a consistent basis. He has as much range as any defensive tackle in the class to make plays up and down the line of scrimmage. His 8.3 run stop percentage ranked 12th among Power-5 defensive tackles in college football.

Blacklock was one of the most productive freshman defensive tackles in the country with a 68.9 overall grade back in 2017 before his 2018 season was cut short with an Achilles tear. He showed no ill effects from that injury in 2019 where his 89.5 run defense grade was one of the highest in the country.

Whatever formula PFF uses to grade run defense for IDL ended up giving him a damn good grade for the season.

 

So, I'm not sure where you're coming up with the idea that Ross Blacklock is "terrible against the run", because none of the sources I've found or that you listed have said that, or anything close to it.  Now if all you're looking for a is a fat guy who can sit his butt on the LOS and create a pile, then yeah, Blacklock probably isn't your guy, but we sure as hell don't need to waste a high draft pick on that type of player.  We could just sign a guy like Mike Pennel to play that role for cheap.

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, MaximusGluteus said:

A. CONS: Missed 2018 with an Achilles injury but was outstanding in 2017 and 2019. Has room to grow in terms of processing the run and reading blocks so that he can most effectively attack - as that develops it’s exciting to consider how much better he can get because the traits and physical tools are so outstanding. Will have a stylistic/technical transition at the next level after working from a four-point stance and executing all the stunts involved in the TCU defense. 

WORST TRAIT - Processing

NFL COMP - Gerald McCoy 

TDN - Crabbs

Summary - Ross Blacklock is a scheme diverse talent who has all the physical tools needed to be a disruptive presence up front on an NFL defensive line. Blacklock's length, hand power, lateral agility and first step quickness are all plus qualities and once he's able to polish his pad level/leverage and hand placement, Blacklock will have a chance to be an impact defender. His projection is best as a 3T in an even front, where his athleticism can shine through and allow penetration into the backfield. 

 

B. Flashes menacing disruptive qualities as a gap seeker, but is just ordinary when forced to sit and take on blocks. He's a hit-or-miss run defender, but he's a relentless pass rusher with elite lateral quickness and change of direction to exploit interior galoots and open pathways to the pocket. 

  • Needs improved hand placement and angles for quicker shed
  • Knocked around by interior power
  • Ends up on the ground too often
  • Loses rush momentum to a stiff punch
  • Failed to convert pressures to sacks at a steady clip

C. With all the stunts and slants TCU’s defensive line throws at their opponents, properly evaluating their defensive linemen can be a chore. You simply don’t get as many true one-on-one interactions to see how a guy wins. 

I'm not dismissing what I've omitted from your rather lengthy post and I am NOT disagreeing with the fact that many of his technical issues are coachable. That has never been my argument and let's get that clear because you think he's a HOF'er. However, you forget that I'm actually from TX and follow TCU football closely as stated in another thread; which is why I'm high on Reagor and not on Mims.

Let's go through this line-by-line:

A. Processing skills are crucial when diagnosing power run schemes such as the two losses to the 49ers, the loss to San Diego, and when we couldn't contain Jordan Howard late in the Philly game. Your first reaction needs to be the right reaction and you need to telepath your move knowing what's coming. He's grossly deficient in this area which is backed up by what has been written. This is why you'll understand the argument that he needs to be in a 4-3 front similar to that of Minnesota's and NYG's due to the fact that he needs a true NT next to him to eat up blocks in order for him to get the 1-on-1's he needs in order to succeed - He will not get that in Pettine's scheme and will face double teams regularly. Therefore, this does NOT make him scheme diverse at the next level. Plus, they point out that he's NOT a plug-n-play. We need a plug-n-play guy.

B. What part of "hit-or-miss run defender" do you not understand. If he's hit-or-miss at the collegiate level, he will be PWNED at the pro level. This is insufficient and it's noted in the weaknesses, which you clearly failed to read even though you emboldened a couple for some reason. 

C. The emboldened part says everything you need to know. The TCU defensive scheme is so much different from everyone else's that it's incredibly difficult to project to the next level. Also: WE DO NOT STUNT OUR DE'S....EVER...HE NEEDS THAT TO SUCCEED AND THRIVE... 

 

Final thoughts:

I'm certainly not questioning his intelligence, but he has mental weaknesses that are not coachable; we saw this with Stephone Anthony at his respective position and we saw this with countless players over the years at other positions. There are things you can't coach: height, size, mentals. You can't do it. Physical things, like technique, are coachable. Molding a guy like Gary who has physical and mental traits, but wasn't coached up at the collegiate level, is another thing. Blacklock is not Gary and benefitted from a scheme that could mask his deficiencies. He's just not a fit in Pettine's scheme and if we draft him, he will be another bust; guaranteed. I know we've talked to him and I wonder why since he's likened to great 4-3 DT's who do not work well in an odd front. He's just not a good fit and he isn't ready for what will be thrown at him - not a 1st round pick.

Edited by Joe

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