FFMD II ‘20 - Detroit Lions Front Office

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

The opinion of us potentially acquiring Judon from one of the FFMD writers:

Thats going to be one scary front 7. Curious to see what they gave up.

[LionArkie]

Before I cast my vote this will probably limit our ability to get either good talent at ol or wr. We will have penetration at the dt spot with Kinlaw. Is the edge position as important now and is it worth the cost? I’m on the fence.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

Just now, LionArkie said:

Before I cast my vote this will probably limit our ability to get either good talent at ol or wr. We will have penetration at the dt spot with Kinlaw. Is the edge position as important now and is it worth the cost? I’m on the fence.

Yeah, it's a really good question.

My take: we still have two early 4th round picks, along with that beeeeautiful early 3rd round pick. If there's no one sitting at #67 that represents great value, part of me would like to try and move down to the mid-3rd round, acquire an additional 4th round pick, then flip that 4th round pick for Lamp. (We could essentially turn #67 into a good prospect at 13's position and Lamp.)

But, yeah: with three more picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds, I feel that we'll have plenty of opportunities to add great depth to this team, in addition to a 27/28 year old immediate upgrade at DE.

[LionArkie]

I vote yea.

[Louis Friend]

20 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

Before I cast my vote this will probably limit our ability to get either good talent at ol or wr. We will have penetration at the dt spot with Kinlaw. Is the edge position as important now and is it worth the cost? I’m on the fence.

Pass rush has been completely void on our team. I am all for adding as much to our trenches as possible. Judon is a very good young talent that will help build a formidable pass rush with Shelton, Kinlaw and Flowers. And we still have picks to add talent at other areas. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Louis Friend

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

It appears that we have a majority vote, although Baltimore is having second thoughts.

My opinion: we hold firm on the #85 for Judon. I believe that, considering his age, cap hit and contract demands, mid-3rd round value is right where he should be. I don't have an interest in increasing this offer: if they insist that we offer more, I have no interest in the deal.

Just my take.

[LionArkie]

Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

It appears that we have a majority vote, although Baltimore is having second thoughts.

My opinion: we hold firm on the #85 for Judon. I believe that, considering his age, cap hit and contract demands, mid-3rd round value is right where he should be. I don't have an interest in increasing this offer: if they insist that we offer more, I have no interest in the deal.

Just my take.

Agreed. I’m already on the fence.

[Louis Friend]

I agree. I think it’s fair value. 

[BigC421/]

1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Fair enough.

I had proposed a heavily front-loaded 3 year, $51M contract, which gives us an out after the second year. In my opinion, his impact is worth a mid-3rd round pick.

I think that’s wishful thinking,  player usually has the team trading for him by the balls in these situations and the agent uses the fact that u were willing to give up a pick despite  knowing what contract demands would likely be against as proof as of how much you value the player.  He will likely want a 5 year deal or just play on the tag.  Going to the Lions is unlikely to be a scenario that Judah is willing to play on a discount 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

3 minutes ago, BigC421/ said:

I think that’s wishful thinking,  player usually has the team trading for him by the balls in these situations and the agent uses the fact that u were willing to give up a pick despite  knowing what contract demands would likely be against as proof as of how much you value the player.  He will likely want a 5 year deal or just play on the tag.  Going to the Lions is unlikely to be a scenario that Judah is willing to play on a discount 

At the same time, coming to his home state (he grew up 45 minutes away from Detroit) and making $17M to be a full-time starter next to Kinlaw, Shelton and Flowers is a pretty attractive offer. So much so, that he even accepted it in FFMD.

(All jokes aside: I'd happily make it a 4 year deal, or a 5 year deal, keeping it front-loaded with an out after the second year. It's not the years, but the structure.)

Edited April 5, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway

[BigC421/]

Just my 2 cents I’m just 1 vote.  I look at his former teammate Zsmith who by all accounts was/is a better player.  We could have signed him last off-season for most likely less than Judah will end up getting and without giving up the pick.  It’s just non sensical especially when you consider developments in Clowney situation.  Again better player, same age, similar contract without giving up the pick.  

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

2 minutes ago, BigC421/ said:

Just my 2 cents I’m just 1 vote.  I look at his former teammate Zsmith who by all accounts was/is a better player.  We could have signed him last off-season for most likely less than Judah will end up getting and without giving up the pick.  It’s just non sensical especially when you consider developments in Clowney situation.  Again better player, same age, similar contract without giving up the pick.  

Yeah, definitely: if we could sign Clowney to that deal right now, I'd be on board. Heck, I'd be the captain of that ship. Unfortunately, we can't sign FAs in FFMD II '20.

What's the bust rate with 3rd and 4th round picks... higher than 50%? At the very least? Our options for upgrading our pass-rush are: 1) draft a DE at #67, hope that he doesn't bust and is as good as Judon, or 2) draft a DE at #85, hope that he doesn't bust and is as good as Judon, or 3) draft a DE...

Our options are limited, and I don't think we're able to leave this draft with a player that has a floor as high as Judon's is right now. He isn't elite, but he's a very good 27 year old pass-rusher (28 when the season starts), and, most importantly, we know exactly what we'll be getting. He appears to be our only (low-risk) way to significantly upgrade our pass-rush entering the 2020 season.

A line of Flowers-Kinlaw-Shelton-Judon, with linebackers of Collins-Tavai-Ragland-Davis, and with CBs of Okudah-Trufant-Coleman-Oruwariye and our safeties turns our defense from a bottom 10 unit to arguably top 15 (at least).

[BigC421/]

I get the rationale, it’s a shiny object that’s right in front of you and makes the team look better on paper immediately. What’s the long term cost though. Not just a 3rd pick playing in rookie contract for the next 4 years.  Who are we not able to sign going foward because of this?  A better free agent next year?  Does this force us to let Decker or Golladay walk.  The unintended consequences.  Paying 36 mil to your 2 starting ends is going to have ramifications else where. Those players lost or not brought in are essentially an unforeseen part of the trade.  I’m not necessarily against that kind of investment in the ends if your getting elite guys but neither Flowers or Judah are worth 18 a year and I think the combo while good would be disappointing big picture 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

1 minute ago, BigC421/ said:

I get the rationale, it’s a shiny object that’s right in front of you and makes the team look better on paper immediately. What’s the long term cost though. Not just a 3rd pick playing in rookie contract for the next 4 years.  Who are we not able to sign going foward because of this?  A better free agent next year?  Does this force us to let Decker or Golladay walk.  The unintended consequences.  Paying 36 mil to your 2 starting ends is going to have ramifications else where. Those players lost or not brought in are essentially an unforeseen part of the trade.  I’m not necessarily against that kind of investment in the ends if your getting elite guys but neither Flowers or Judah are worth 18 a year and I think the combo while good would be disappointing big picture 

That's a great counter-argument. It really is. I think the part in bold is where some of us are, and that there's absolutely an element of risk to this. (I don't think there's a chance to Golladay hits free agency, but, yeah, it could definitely have an impact on Decker.)

I also don't want to pay our ends that much, but I also look at it this way: had we re-signed Slay and drafted Young, we'd still have a big contract at one position and a rookie contract at the other. We're going to be paying someone. Where we stand right now, and after adding Okudah and Kinlaw, I think our best option to significantly upgrade this defense is in the form of a high floor pass-rusher on a glorified 2 year deal for a mid-3rd round pick.

But, again... I get it. You have a good argument here.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

Alright. I looked back through the thread (especially pages 23 and 24) pertaining to a trade proposal for Joe Dahl. The Panthers offered an early 6th round pick (#185) and we had two 'yea' votes, minimal opposition and a few on the fence.

As this was an unofficial vote, I'll wait a few minutes to get a feel for how we view this trade.

My perspective: he's one in a group of 'decent' depth players at the position. He hasn't seized a starting job, despite the constant fluctuation at OG, and is due $1.8M next year. I think the early 6th can net us another young depth player. My vote would be 'yea'.