Brian Urlacher, First Ballot HoF?

[kingseanjohn]

Yes to being a HOFer. I don't think he's a first ballet guy though.

Ahead of him I'd go with Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Don Coryell, Brian Dawkins, Terrell Owens, and Isaac Bruce.

[BlaqOptic]

Seriously,

How the hell does this question keep coming up? A more accurate question is whether or not Urlacher is actually a Hall of Famer at all but as the last two years have shown there is no logic or reality based in the Hall of Fame at this point. It's all about whether or not you were a media darling and had a nice story. And fortunately for Urlacher he was both. The media absolutely loved him and gave him more press than he deserved which largely came in part from the misconception that he was this elite coverage linebacker for much of his career just because he played Safety in college. It's in large part why he won his Defensive Player of the Year Award when Mike Peterson was unquestionably better that season for a defense that ultimately ranked 6th in points and yards against a tougher slate of offenses.

An additional example of that undue press? How Urlacher "revolutionized" the Tampa 2 Mike Linebacker position. As if there weren't players doing that before him. As if London Fletcher wasn't putting up All-Pro caliber numbers in St. Louis between 99 and 01 on the way to two Super Bowl appearances. And while people will shout "Greatest Show on Turf" those Rams defenses were damn good and led by Fletcher.

Yet another example of that undue press? This idea that he was this elite coverage linebacker. Before 2008 Urlacher was listed as in zone coverage or direct coverage of the opposition's #1, #2, #3 Receivers, and Tight End at a smaller percentage of time as Lance Briggs yet still gave up more receptions and yards. But it must have been because his coverage was so great because he was dropping "30 yards deep" despite no other Tampa 2 Linebacker having these terrible coverage metrics...

Brian Urlacher's career is summed up in two games for me... Week 17 in 2005 when Jerome Bettis just put him flat on his back in what may have been the most embarrassing trucking I've ever seen happen to a defender and Super Bowl XLI which is a perfect representation of his career; a lot of stat sheet stuffing tackles to absolutely no actual effect on the game.

[Jlowe22]

30 minutes ago, BlaqOptic said:

Brian Urlacher's career is summed up in two games for me... Week 17 in 2005 when Jerome Bettis just put him flat on his back in what may have been the most embarrassing trucking I've ever seen happen to a defender and Super Bowl XLI which is a perfect representation of his career; a lot of stat sheet stuffing tackles to absolutely no actual effect on the game.

I mainly just feel sorry for Rex Grossman's back.

[JAF-N72EX]

Although your hate for Urlacher has been well documented around here, and so I know that I'm just wasting my time with all of this. But here it goes anyways....

4 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

How the hell does this question keep coming up?

The fact that this DOES keep coming up should make you question your own preconceived notions here.

4 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

the last two years have shown there is no logic or reality based in the Hall of Fame at this point. It's all about whether or not you were a media darling and had a nice story

I agree.

4 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

fortunately for Urlacher he was both.

False.

4 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

The media absolutely loved him and gave him more press than he deserved

Yup, they loved him so much that CBS, PFW and Sporting News(when they were top of the line) voted him the most overrated player in the league 3 consecutive years in a row.

Anyone that watched Urlacher his entire career knows damn well that he absolutely hated the media and the media hated him back for it. He was the players version of Belichick and Marshawn Lynch before Marshawn Lynch. 

4 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

It's in large part why he won his Defensive Player of the Year Award when Mike Peterson was unquestionably better that season

That's debatable. I'm not going to sit here and try to pretend that I remember Peterson's play that season, but I do know that Urlacher winning it that year was certainly not unreasonable by any stretch of imagination either.

4 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

that ultimately ranked 6th in points and yards against a tougher slate of offenses

Yet, Urlacher's defense ranked 1st overall. And while they did play an easier offensive schedule overall, let's not act like the Jags schedule was brutal either. The Bears average offensive OPP ranked 19.5 and the Jags were 17.4. So, while they did play a tougher schedule, let's not over exaggerate it. Especially when the Jags played in the same division aas Manning.

6 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

Yet another example of that undue press? This idea that he was this elite coverage linebacker. Before 2008 Urlacher was listed as in zone coverage or direct coverage of the opposition's #1, #2, #3 Receivers, and Tight End......

You do know that Uralcher's responsibility on defense had changed three times in his career right? Starting off with his first few years in the league when he was asked to play closer the LOS because of his inexperience at the position, and the emergence of Mike Brown gave Jauron the confidence in his cover-2 scheme and blitz packages. It wasn't until Lovie Smith arrived that Urlacher was asked to further off the LOS when he implement the Tampa-2 defense (which is NOT the same as the cover-2!!!).

This is why there was such a discrepancy in his numbers to begin with. 

6 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

Yet another example of that undue press? This idea that he was this elite coverage linebacker. Before 2008 Urlacher was listed as in zone coverage or direct coverage of the opposition's #1, #2, #3 Receivers, and Tight End at a smaller percentage of time as Lance Briggs yet still gave up more receptions and yards. But it must have been because his coverage was so great because he was dropping "30 yards deep" despite no other Tampa 2 Linebacker having these terrible coverage metrics...

I legitimately would love to see these metrics because the ones that I'm looking at right now is showing both being very close. Which by your measure - Urlacher's "terrible metrics" - would imply that they were both "terrible". WHich in turn, contradicts your initial statement altogether.

Another funny thing about this is that Urlacher's best coverage metrics were in '04 and '05. Not after 2008 or 2007.

Again, I would love to see these metrics.

5 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

An additional example of that undue press? How Urlacher "revolutionized" the Tampa 2 Mike Linebacker position. As if there weren't players doing that before him. As if London Fletcher wasn't putting up All-Pro caliber numbers in St. Louis between 99 and 01 on the way to two Super Bowl appearances. And while people will shout "Greatest Show on Turf" those Rams defenses were damn good and led by Fletcher.

First off, I agree about that Rams defense being overshadowed but you're not going to tell me that London Fletcher was the reason for that defense being good. Which is what you're trying to portray here. GTFO here with that. Let's not forget that he had alot of help on that D as well; starting with the DL that they had which include (forget his name) who set a team record in sacks at the time, and the emergence of Leonard little. 

That aside, the comparison between Fletcher's stint with the Rams and Urlacher's first 3 years with the Bears are noticeably different, but it's actually not even a fair comparison due to the differences in their assignments. As stated above, Urlacher played closer to the line of LOS whereas Fletcher played off like a traditional linebacker. So this favors Fletcher in pass coverage and favors Urlacher against the run. 

That said, despite Urlacher playing closer to the LOS, their pass metrics are STILL similar, and they STILL favor Urlacher. And as far who played the run better.....I really hope I don't need to get into why Urlacher was better in this area. But again, this is why it's such an unfair comparison. 

====================

Nonetheless; screw metrics, stats and whatever else. I don't even need those to convince myself that he deserves to be in the HoF. I'll go by what I seen and take his own peers' word for it (like Peyton and Rodgers for example).

[43M]

I dont agree with Blaq note for note about Urlacher, but I do think he was overrated.     I dont think he was notably better than James Farrior, who will never even be considered.   And before someone claims I am being a homer with that statement, the same holds true for other ILBs like Karlos Dansby, Donnie Edwards, Zach Thomas and of course London Fletcher.

I have nothing against Urlacher getting in at some point, but he absolutely shouldnt be a first round lock when players that were on the same level arent even considered.  Urlacher had alot of hype coming out of college and I feel like he rode that wave.....kind of the way Andrew Luck has in regards to so many ignoring notable shortcomings and acting like he has been elite every year since entering the league (and no, Im not turning this into a Luck debate, just using that as an example).  Urlacher was damn good, but he isnt even the same breath as a Ray Lewis, even though many act like he was.

Im not going to discuss this in depth again because people already have their minds set.   Im not going to try to convince anyone to feel differently, but thats how I feel about Urlacher.    Never felt like I was watching a historically special player when I watched him, even though so many claim he is.   

[BlaqOptic]

15 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Although your hate for Urlacher has been well documented around here, and so I know that I'm just wasting my time with all of this. But here it goes anyways....

The fact that this DOES keep coming up should make you question your own preconceived notions here.

I agree.

False.

Yup, they loved him so much that CBS, PFW and Sporting News(when they were top of the line) voted him the most overrated player in the league 3 consecutive years in a row.

Anyone that watched Urlacher his entire career knows damn well that he absolutely hated the media and the media hated him back for it. He was the players version of Belichick and Marshawn Lynch before Marshawn Lynch. 

That's debatable. I'm not going to sit here and try to pretend that I remember Peterson's play that season, but I do know that Urlacher winning it that year was certainly not unreasonable by any stretch of imagination either.

Yet, Urlacher's defense ranked 1st overall. And while they did play an easier offensive schedule overall, let's not act like the Jags schedule was brutal either. The Bears average offensive OPP ranked 19.5 and the Jags were 17.4. So, while they did play a tougher schedule, let's not over exaggerate it. Especially when the Jags played in the same division aas Manning.

You do know that Uralcher's responsibility on defense had changed three times in his career right? Starting off with his first few years in the league when he was asked to play closer the LOS because of his inexperience at the position, and the emergence of Mike Brown gave Jauron the confidence in his cover-2 scheme and blitz packages. It wasn't until Lovie Smith arrived that Urlacher was asked to further off the LOS when he implement the Tampa-2 defense (which is NOT the same as the cover-2!!!).

This is why there was such a discrepancy in his numbers to begin with. 

I legitimately would love to see these metrics because the ones that I'm looking at right now is showing both being very close. Which by your measure - Urlacher's "terrible metrics" - would imply that they were both "terrible". WHich in turn, contradicts your initial statement altogether.

Another funny thing about this is that Urlacher's best coverage metrics were in '04 and '05. Not after 2008 or 2007.

Again, I would love to see these metrics.

First off, I agree about that Rams defense being overshadowed but you're not going to tell me that London Fletcher was the reason for that defense being good. Which is what you're trying to portray here. GTFO here with that. Let's not forget that he had alot of help on that D as well; starting with the DL that they had which include (forget his name) who set a team record in sacks at the time, and the emergence of Leonard little. 

That aside, the comparison between Fletcher's stint with the Rams and Urlacher's first 3 years with the Bears are noticeably different, but it's actually not even a fair comparison due to the differences in their assignments. As stated above, Urlacher played closer to the line of LOS whereas Fletcher played off like a traditional linebacker. So this favors Fletcher in pass coverage and favors Urlacher against the run. 

That said, despite Urlacher playing closer to the LOS, their pass metrics are STILL similar, and they STILL favor Urlacher. And as far who played the run better.....I really hope I don't need to get into why Urlacher was better in this area. But again, this is why it's such an unfair comparison. 

====================

Nonetheless; screw metrics, stats and whatever else. I don't even need those to convince myself that he deserves to be in the HoF. I'll go by what I seen and take his own peers' word for it (like Peyton and Rodgers for example).

 

I am not fully versed with the new quoting features here so I will just cover the stuff that I know is complete bullcrap...

1.) Urlacher  was in fact a media darling. Whether or not he liked the media is inconsequential. Bob Sanders did not like the media. Didn't stop him from being a media darling. You allude to Urlacher being voted overrated but you very clearly misremember. Urlacher was voted most overrated by the players and scouts multiple times, not the media. The media merely ran the stories. People in the league voting him overrated has nothing to do with the media and how they perceived Urlacher.

2.) The coverage metrics as I looked them over at least one hundred times, literally. Urlacher's pass coverage metrics NEVER looked comparable than Briggs. He had an inferior success rate, allowed more yards, on less targets despite facing #1 Wide Recievrs at a lesser clip, #2 Wide Receivers at a lesser clip, Slot Receivers at a lesser clip, and Tight Ends at a lesser clip. But please do tell me where you're getting your Pre-2008 metrics as there are only two places who were keeping Linebacker coverage metrics prior to 2008. For one of them, I truly simply don't feel like paying $49 for the Premium Statistics to prove a point about something I know I'm right on. The other, almost quite literally, nobody on this forum would have access to unless they work for one of the 32 franchises.

[BlaqOptic]

Just found this from 2013 and every single bit of it still holds true. Last thing I'm going to post...

 

Quote

With Brian Urlacher having retired today many people are enthralled to call him a “Future Hall of Famer.” I understand that Urlacher was unquestionably one of the 50 best players we saw in the previous decade but that said let’s no let sensationalism take over here. Many people are anointing Urlacher with this title simply because they are upset that Urlacher is retiring. To make my point I will allude to a few major points…


The first point is a comparison to his modern day contemporaries…
I know that statistics are not the end-all, be-all… However I prefer things rooted in substance rather than pure conjecture. The contemporaries that compare best to Urlacher within the past 20 years include Zach Thomas, James Farrior, Junior Seau, Donnie Edwards and London Fletcher. 

Examining them from a pure statistical standpoint… Keep in mind we need not compare to Ray Lewis or Derrick Brooks (Yes Brooks was an OLB but he’s a contemporary in this case).

Thomas: 1,733 ToTackles, 20.5 Sacks, 85.5 Stuffs, 15 Forced Fumbles, 8 Recoveries, 68 Passes Defensed, 17 Interceptions, Led 0 #1 Defenses
Farrior: 1,409 ToTackles, 35.5 Sacks, 68 Stuffs, 18 Forced Fumbles, 12 Recoveries, 71 Passes Defensed, 11 Interceptions, Led 3 #1 Defenses
Seau: 1,848 ToTackles, 56.5 Sacks, 161 Stuffs, 11 Forced Fumbles, 18 Recoveries, 95 Passes Defensed, 18 Interceptions, Led 1 #1 Defense
Edwards: 1,498 ToTackles, 23.5 Sacks, 68.5 Stuffs, 15 Forced Fumbles, 11 Recoveries, 84 Passes Defensed, 28 Interceptions, Led 0 #1
Fletcher: 1,929 ToTackles, 37.5 Sacks, 57 Stuffs, 19 Forced Fumbles, 12 Recoveries, 95 Passes Defensed, 23 Interceptions, Led 0 #1 Defenses
Urlacher: 1,358 ToTackles, 41.5 Sacks, 87 Stuffs, 12 Forced Fumbles, 16 Recoveries, 91 Passes Defensed, 22 Interceptions, Led 1 #1 Defense

So if we look at it from a raw statistics standpoint does Urlacher deserve it? I mean Seau is clearly a lock for the Hall of Fame however Fletcher, Edwards, Thomas, and Farrior aren’t Hall players in many peoples’ eyes… 

But we can’t compare stats right because Urlacher played in a Tampa 2 and that hurts his statistics right? 

That is an urban legend. The Tampa 2 is a base scheme implementing a Cover 2 look and having your MLB drop a little more often than normal. However, it’s still a read-and-react system. If you see a halfback carrying the ball you attack him rather than keep backpedaling because it’s your assignment. If you see a checkdown to the halfback in the flat you read-and-react and go. That doesn’t mean that your stats are suddenly going to go down. The Tampa 2 didn’t prevent Urlacher from getting his fair share of pass rush/blitz opportunities; his 40 sacks evidence this.

So Urlacher is better than those four other Linebackers right… Well sure he has more accolades than them…

That leads into my second point… That while Urlacher was worthy of most of his accolades he wasn’t worthy of all of them. I contend that Urlachers 2010 and 2011 Pro Bowl and All-Pro Bids were based on name. I also contend that his 2002 All-Pro Bid should have gone to Donnie Edwards and his 2005 Defensive Player of the Year Award should have gone to Steelers’ Defensive Back Troy Polamalu

In 2002 Urlacher’s 1st Team All-Pro nod should have gone to Donnie Edwards. Edwards wasn’t as stout against the run that season but he was much better against the pass. However, Edwards wasn’t on as good of a team and did not have the same defensive talent around him that Urlacher had and didn’t receive the recognition he deserved.

His 2005 Defensive Player of the Year could have very well gone to Troy Polamalu if Troy was the media darling Urlacher was at the time (Troy didn't become one until later in his career). Football Outsiders' writers agreed with me in their voting that season. After all Urlacher had 4 other members of his team receive votes that season so could he really have been the best defender in the league? He didn’t have a single splash play in the final 10 games of the season and one of the last plays of the regular season he was run over by Jerome Bettis

In 2010 Brian Urlacher was not as good as the following players; Lawrence Timmons, Derrick Johnson, Jonathan Vilma, and Patrick Willis. His fellow NFC contemporaries also played at the same level in Curtis Lofton and James Laurinitis. 4 Linebackers that played better and 2 on the same level; with 4 being in the NFC. That should have meant no Pro Bowl and no All-Pro. However, the 1st team nods that season were just as bad as Lewis and Mayo didn’t deserve 1st team bids either so I can’t fault Urlacher.

However, whether he deserved them or received them for being a media darling I cannot take away Urlacher’s accolades. What I can do is compare him to others who came before him who have similar accolades. Some of which are in the Hall of Fame and some of which are not. That is my third point of how does he compare to the people you all think he will be next to based on accolades?

Well let’s examine it shall we?

*Zach Thomas: 7x Pro Bowler, 5x 1st Team All-Pro, 2x 2nd Team All-Pro, All-Decade Team, 2x Alumni Linebacker of the Year
*Junior Seau: 12x Pro Bowler, 8x 1st Team All-Pro, 2x 2nd Team All-Pro, All-Decade Team, 1x Alumni Linebacker of the Year
*Randy Grandishar: 7x Pro Bowler, 5x 1st Team All-Pro, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, '78 Defensive Player of The Year, 
* Ray Lewis: 13x Pro Bowler, 7x 1st Team All-Pro, 3x 2nd Team All-Pro, '00 & 03 Defensive Player of The Year, '99 and '03 Alumni Linebacker Of The Year(
Jack Ham: 8x Pro Bowler, 6x 1st Team All-Pro, 2x 2nd Team All-Pro, All Decade Team, '
**** Butkus: 8x Pro Bowler, 6x 1st Team All-Pro, 2x 2nd Team All-Pro, NEA Defensive Player of The Year,
Mike Singletary: 10x Pro Bowler, 8x 1st Team All-Pro, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, '85 & '88 Defensive Player of The Year, All-Decade Team
Ray Nitschke: 1x Pro Bowler, 3x 1st Team All-Pro, 4x 2nd Team All-Pro, 'All Decade Team
Jack Lambert: 9x Pro Bowler, 7x 1st Team All-Pro, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, 2 All-Decade Teams,'74 Defensive Rookie of The Year, '76 Defensive Player of the Year
Chuck Bednarik: 8x Pro Bowler, 10x All-Pro, All-Decade Team
Willie Lanier: 6x Pro Bowler, 8x All-Pro
Sam Huff:5x Pro Bowler, 4x 1st Team All-Pro, 2x 2nd Team All-Pro, All-Decade Team
*Sam Mills: 5x Pro Bowler, 4x All-Pro, 3x All-USFL
Joe Schmidt: 10x Pro Bowler, 8x 1st Team All-Pro, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, All-Decade Team
Harry Carson: 9x Pro Bowler, 2x 1st Team All-Pro, 4x 2nd Team All-Pro 
*Lee Roy Jordan: 5x Pro Bowler, 1x 1st Team All-Pro, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, '73 NFL 101 Defensive Player of the Year
*Bill Bergey: 4x Pro Bowler, 1x All-AFL

*Indicates that the player is not a current Hall of Famer.

There are at least 7 individuals at the MLB/ILB position that have equal claim or better claim that haven’t been inducted into Canton yet. To be fair Seau and Lewis are 1st Ballot guys and therefore we can lower that total down to five. However, the point still remains valid. 

No one stand out more to me than Randy Grandishar who was a better player than Urlacher in my opinion. He has more accolades and was captain of the Orange Crush Broncos defense. Yet he’s only made the Top 10 on the ballot just once. It’s fair to say Urlacher could easily get caught up in a log jam of Linebackers and other players…

Compared head-up to Grandishar then Urlacher probably would not get into the Hall of Fame. However, there’s one key reason why I think that while Urlacher isn’t a Hall of Famer unlike some of these guys he will eventually get in… Because Urlacher was a media darling. It goes back to some of those undue accolades I referred to earlier. No doubt that Urlacher had good seasons in those respective years but he arguably didn’t deserve some of those accolades and certainly didn’t deserve them in 2010 and 2011. However, the media and public’s love for him propelled those accolades. By media I mean the writers in regards to All-Pro and Associated Press Defensive Player of The Year nominations. Some of those same writers will undoubtedly be voting for Urlacher when they get the chance…

My fourth point is the logjam of players that Urlacher will face for modern-era consideration. You have all of the aforementioned players listed above that haven’t been inducted. Then you have to also consider players with like resumes to Urlacher at other positions that have been waiting; players and owners like Jerome Bettis, Michael Strahan, Tim Brown, Kevin Green, Charles Haley, Art Modell, Andre Reed and the like. Then you have to factor in players that will come after Urlacher who arguably could end up having better resumes; players like Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis (who already has more All-Pros), Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, etc.

A fifth point I recently was made aware of was how strongly people are hampering on the 40-20 club argument. While those numbers are pretty and all have you people taken a look at who else is in the club? Seth Joyner and Wilber Marshall, both with superior numbers in both aspects to Urlacher. While I’d argue Urlacher superior to both of them it just goes to show that Urlacher’s 40-20 accomplishment and the select few is more so a product of an abstract concept chosen by two random numbers rather than indicative of Hall of Fame play. Even if it was that would mean that Joyner and Marshall would be added to the aforementioned logjam of players made in point four.

A sixth point I hear people proclaim is that Urlacher “redefined the position” because he was the prototypical Tampa 2 MIKE Linebacker. First of all there are so many things wrong here it’s not even funny. The first is that Love Smith had one of those aforementioned Linebackers – London Fletcher – as his MIKE Linebacker in St. Louis before Lovie hooked up with Urlacher in Chicago. Fletcher was good enough to lead the Rams’ Defense alongside the Greatest Show on Turf to 2 Super Bowl appearances and 1 victory; and before you claim they were just along for the ride they ranked 3rd and 4th in the league in least points allowed those years. The second problem I have with this is they speak as if the Tampa 2 has been a league redefining defense. As we speak only 2 teams – the Bears and Vikings – employ it as their base look. The reason being is that it’s a personnel defense and not the most effective one. How can you redefine a position if the overwhelming majority of the league ignores said redefining. It’s like saying that Colin Kaepernick redefined the Quarterback position if the Pistol Read Option becomes obsolete within the next 2 years. 

My final point is one presented to me from someone else… And that is the history of the Middle Linebacker position and Canton. Only 2 Middle Linebackers have ever gone 1st Ballot in the Hall of Fame. Two out of numerous candidates! Is Urlacher really the type of player to break that mold?

So should Urlacher be a Hall of Famer? Strong cases exist in both directions regardless. In my personal opinion I don’t think he should get in unless a few other people get in within the next 5 to 12 years. However, it’s pretty clear Urlacher certainly isn’t a 1st Ballot Hall of Famer like the sensationalizers are purporting right now.

 

 

[JAF-N72EX]

40 minutes ago, BlaqOptic said:

1.) Urlacher  was in fact a media darling. Whether or not he liked the media is inconsequential. Bob Sanders did not like the media. Didn't stop him from being a media darling. You allude to Urlacher being voted overrated but you very clearly misremember. Urlacher was voted most overrated by the players and scouts multiple times, not the media. The media merely ran the stories. People in the league voting him overrated has nothing to do with the media and how they perceived Urlacher.

It wasn't just payers and scouts. It was also TV analysts and beat writers. I'd classify those as "media".

42 minutes ago, BlaqOptic said:

2.) The coverage metrics as I looked them over at least one hundred times, literally. Urlacher's pass coverage metrics NEVER looked comparable than Briggs. He had an inferior success rate, allowed more yards, on less targets despite facing #1 Wide Recievrs at a lesser clip, #2 Wide Receivers at a lesser clip, Slot Receivers at a lesser clip, and Tight Ends at a lesser clip. But please do tell me where you're getting your Pre-2008 metrics as there are only two places who were keeping Linebacker coverage metrics prior to 2008. For one of them, I truly simply don't feel like paying $49 for the Premium Statistics to prove a point about something I know I'm right on. The other, almost quite literally, nobody on this forum would have access to unless they work for one of the 32 franchises.

Well it just so happens that I do and that is exactly what I was looking at - the advanced passing statistics. And again, they're very similar.

I also looked at their charting numbers from SIS dating back to 2005 who do in fact track linebacker targets and you're wrong about Briggs having less targets. Urlacher was only targeted more than Briggs in any given season two times. In fact, it's not even close.

• Red and Green "Targets" indicate most to least
• (excluding 2009 when Urlacher missed the entire season in the first game of teh season)

Lance Briggs

Year	Team	Pos	Hits	Hur	Tgts	Tgt%	Rank	Avg Dist	YAC	Rank	Suc%	Rank
2012	CHI	OLB	0	7	41	8.70%	31	8	3	13	56%	21
2011	CHI	OLB	2	7	43	8.80%	26	4.7	3.3	18	50%	45
2010	CHI	OLB	0	3	37	7.90%	24	5.8	2.2	8	56%	35
2009	CHI	OLB	2	9	47	11.50%	5	6	3.1	20	62%	15
2008	CHI	OLB	1	8	44	8.60%	35	4.7	2.8	10	59%	20
2007	CHI	OLB	5	4	43	11.20%	10	4.1	4.8	71	42%	68
2006	CHI	OLB	1	10	56	12.30%	8	4.4	4.8	58	54%	37
2005	CHI	OLB	--	--	71	15.60%	2	3.7	3.4	9	65%	6
AVG/Total			11	48	47.9	10.44	19.4	5.1	3.5	26.7	55%	33.1

 

Brian Urlacher

Year	Team	Pos	Hits	Hur	Tgts	Tgt%	Rank	Avg Dist	YAC	Rank	Suc%	Rank
2012	CHI	MLB	0	2	30	8.40%	37	7.6	2.1	2	62%	9
2011	CHI	MLB	0	2	36	7.50%	34	7.7	3.8	26	60%	8
2010	CHI	MLB	0	5	53	10.60%	3	7.7	1.9	4	56%	34
2009	CHI	MLB	1	0	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
2008	CHI	MLB	4	7	25	4.90%	73	6.4	2.5	6	56%	31
2007	CHI	MLB	2	3	44	9.90%	17	7.2	2.6	13	71%	3
2006	CHI	MLB	10	6	33	7.30%	51	7.3	3.2	15	59%	24
2005	CHI	MLB	--	--	39	8.60%	28	7.7	3.7	17	56%	22
AVG/Total			17	25	37.1	8.17	34.7	7.4	2.8	11.9	60%	18.7

[BlaqOptic]

49 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

It wasn't just payers and scouts. It was also TV analysts and beat writers. I'd classify those as "media".

Well it just so happens that I do and that is exactly what I was looking at - the advanced passing statistics. And again, they're very similar.

I also looked at their charting numbers from SIS dating back to 2005 who do in fact track linebacker targets and you're wrong about Briggs having less targets. Urlacher was only targeted more than Briggs in any given season two times. In fact, it's not even close.

• Red and Green "Targets" indicate most to least
• (excluding 2009 when Urlacher missed the entire season in the first game of teh season)

Lance Briggs

 

Year	Team	Pos	Hits	Hur	Tgts	Tgt%	Rank	Avg Dist	YAC	Rank	Suc%	Rank
2012	CHI	OLB	0	7	41	8.70%	31	8	3	13	56%	21
2011	CHI	OLB	2	7	43	8.80%	26	4.7	3.3	18	50%	45
2010	CHI	OLB	0	3	37	7.90%	24	5.8	2.2	8	56%	35
2009	CHI	OLB	2	9	47	11.50%	5	6	3.1	20	62%	15
2008	CHI	OLB	1	8	44	8.60%	35	4.7	2.8	10	59%	20
2007	CHI	OLB	5	4	43	11.20%	10	4.1	4.8	71	42%	68
2006	CHI	OLB	1	10	56	12.30%	8	4.4	4.8	58	54%	37
2005	CHI	OLB	--	--	71	15.60%	2	3.7	3.4	9	65%	6
AVG/Total			11	48	47.9	10.44	19.4	5.1	3.5	26.7	55%	33.1

 

 

Brian Urlacher

Year	Team	Pos	Hits	Hur	Tgts	Tgt%	Rank	Avg Dist	YAC	Rank	Suc%	Rank
2012	CHI	MLB	0	2	30	8.40%	37	7.6	2.1	2	62%	9
2011	CHI	MLB	0	2	36	7.50%	34	7.7	3.8	26	60%	8
2010	CHI	MLB	0	5	53	10.60%	3	7.7	1.9	4	56%	34
2009	CHI	MLB	1	0	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
2008	CHI	MLB	4	7	25	4.90%	73	6.4	2.5	6	56%	31
2007	CHI	MLB	2	3	44	9.90%	17	7.2	2.6	13	71%	3
2006	CHI	MLB	10	6	33	7.30%	51	7.3	3.2	15	59%	24
2005	CHI	MLB	--	--	39	8.60%	28	7.7	3.7	17	56%	22
AVG/Total			17	25	37.1	8.17	34.7	7.4	2.8	11.9	60%	18.7

 

I'm having trouble figuring out how allowing near the same amount of yardage on less targets (2005 & 2006) is superior in coverage? And allowing 3x the yardage on an equal number of targets (2007) is superior in coverage? His success rate is going to be the better of the two because of the role played in the Tampa 2 and how FO quantifies a success. I'll admit I was incorrect with regards to the target totals. I ran away with the numbers from the 2008 Prospectus there and can admit I was 100% wrong an an *** there.

 

[Dashing202]

Ctfu at people who voted later on ! Urlacher is no doubt first ballot .

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Urlacher, Thomas, and Lewis should all be first ballot types. I get the feeling Thomas and Urlacher will have to wait longer than they should though. 

[Forge]

25 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

Urlacher, Thomas, and Lewis should all be first ballot types. I get the feeling Thomas and Urlacher will have to wait longer than they should though. 

Thomas definitely will, i agree. And thats a shame. His greatness is underrated

[JAF-N72EX]

On 9/24/2017 at 1:01 PM, BlaqOptic said:

 

I'm having trouble figuring out how allowing near the same amount of yardage on less targets (2005 & 2006) is superior in coverage? And allowing 3x the yardage on an equal number of targets (2007) is superior in coverage? His success rate is going to be the better of the two because of the role played in the Tampa 2 and how FO quantifies a success. I'll admit I was incorrect with regards to the target totals. I ran away with the numbers from the 2008 Prospectus there and can admit I was 100% wrong an an *** there.

 

I'm not going to go much further into this debate because, quite frankly, I think we both have our minds made up at this point.  

But again though, you're comparing apples to oranges here due to the differences in position assignments(Mike, Weak, Strong) and this where the AVG distance comes into play. Which is why I labeled them in orange on the tables above in the first place. The Tampa scheme itself is going to naturally give the WLB an advantage in short yardage vs the MLB. I mean, are you going to criticize Hillenmeyer or any an other SLB in the same scheme for not generating a ton of sacks, when his primary job is to cover the short-zone on pass plays with no rush and to swallow blockers on run plays? Same here, Urlacher played further downfield than Briggs and had much more ground to cover as well. So why are we knocking his yardage unfairly due to the scheme? If you need further proof of this, see 2009 when Urlacher missed that entire season when Hillenmeyer took over at MLB in Urlacher's absent. As shown above Urlacher's career AVG distance was 7.4. Hillenmeyer's average for that season was 9.4. A +1.6 increase from his previous career AVG(7.8) prior to that while playing the SAM position. Yes, it's a small sample size, but a large enough difference to be recognized, and it shows just how much of a difference there was between the positions and how much of an affect it has, numbers wise. 

Lovie ran the T2 primarily out of over and under alignments in a one-gap system and not like other previous Tampa defenses such as Kiffen's with the Bucs which was a standard front one-gap system (basically just a hybrid cover-2 scheme). In theory, it was a good scheme defensively as it better utilized Urlacher's strengths(speed, agility, instincts, height) while disguising his biggest weakness(lack of strength) and put him in better position to play sideline-to-sideline as opposed to downhill. This also opened up the playbook for Lovie because it was easier to disguise blitzes and zone coverage(i.e show cover-1 blitz and drop into a 3). Urlacher's ability to backpedal downfield as fast as he did gave Lovie these options and the main reason why it was so successful. That was until teams started to figure that quick inside slants were the Lovie's kryponite, and I'm sure that Bears fan's on here know exactly what I'm talking about and can attest to this. 

=====================================
Btw, I just read that post with that quote and I'm assuming that it was from a previous thread on the subject. Overall, solid post. I don't necessarily agree with your stance but I can respect it. 

Anyhow, I just know that I watched a defense go from the bottom 20th in the league for nearly a decade to becoming a consistent, Superbowl contending top 5-10 defense in nearly every single season that Urlacher was available (save for his rookie year, '02 and in '03 when he played all season with a hamstring injury). And doing it against some tough QB's and WR's within his division throughout his entire career, nonetheless. Which is topped off by 2 HoF QB's in Favre and Rodgers. Then others such as Culpepper, Stafford and McNabb(2 years).

Bears defense ranking prior to Urlacher:
1999 - 21st
1998 - 22nd
1997 - 24th
1996 - 20th
1995 - 22nd
1994 - 15th
1993 - 9th
1992 - 21st
1991 - 6th

Average = 17.8

Bears defense ranking after Urlacher:
2012 - 1st
2011 - 4th
2010 - 4th
2009 - 21st(Urlacher missed entire season)
2008 - 7th
2007 - 10th
2006 - 2nd
2005 - 1st
2004 - 9th
2003 - 16th
2002 - 23rd
2001 - 6th
2000 - 19th*

Average ('09 excluded) = 8.5

On 9/24/2017 at 2:04 PM, Dashing202 said:

Ctfu at people who voted later on ! Urlacher is no doubt first ballot .

Obviously, I'm a big fan of Urlacher, but even I can admit that him being a first ballot is debatable and is certainly not a lock. Mainly because of the lack of hardware.

Not that it matters,  because I don't see it happening anyhow. There is no way that 2 linebackers get in this year and I'm not foolish enough to believe that he was better or more deserving than Ray Lewis. 

[Dashing202]

2 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I'm not going to go much further into this debate because, quite frankly, I think we both have our minds made up at this point.  

But again though, you're comparing apples to oranges here due to the differences in position assignments(Mike, Weak, Strong) and this where the AVG distance comes into play. Which is why I labeled them in orange on the tables above in the first place. The Tampa scheme itself is going to naturally give the WLB an advantage in short yardage vs the MLB. I mean, are you going to criticize Hillenmeyer or any an other SLB in the same scheme for not generating a ton of sacks, when his primary job is to cover the short-zone on pass plays with no rush and to swallow blockers on run plays? Same here, Urlacher played further downfield than Briggs and had much more ground to cover as well. So why are we knocking his yardage unfairly due to the scheme? If you need further proof of this, see 2009 when Urlacher missed that entire season when Hillenmeyer took over at MLB in Urlacher's absent. As shown above Urlacher's career AVG distance was 7.4. Hillenmeyer's average for that season was 9.4. A +1.6 increase from his previous career AVG(7.8) prior to that while playing the SAM position. Yes, it's a small sample size, but a large enough difference to be recognized, and it shows just how much of a difference there was between the positions and how much of an affect it has, numbers wise. 

Lovie ran the T2 primarily out of over and under alignments in a one-gap system and not like other previous Tampa defenses such as Kiffen's with the Bucs which was a standard front one-gap system (basically just a hybrid cover-2 scheme). In theory, it was a good scheme defensively as it better utilized Urlacher's strengths(speed, agility, instincts, height) while disguising his biggest weakness(lack of strength) and put him in better position to play sideline-to-sideline as opposed to downhill. This also opened up the playbook for Lovie because it was easier to disguise blitzes and zone coverage(i.e show cover-1 blitz and drop into a 3). Urlacher's ability to backpedal downfield as fast as he did gave Lovie these options and the main reason why it was so successful. That was until teams started to figure that quick inside slants were the Lovie's kryponite, and I'm sure that Bears fan's on here know exactly what I'm talking about and can attest to this. 

=====================================
Btw, I just read that post with that quote and I'm assuming that it was from a previous thread on the subject. Overall, solid post. I don't necessarily agree with your stance but I can respect it. 

Anyhow, I just know that I watched a defense go from the bottom 20th in the league for nearly a decade to becoming a consistent, Superbowl contending top 5-10 defense in nearly every single season that Urlacher was available (save for his rookie year, '02 and in '03 when he played all season with a hamstring injury). And doing it against some tough QB's and WR's within his division throughout his entire career, nonetheless. Which is topped off by 2 HoF QB's in Favre and Rodgers. Then others such as Culpepper, Stafford and McNabb(2 years).

Bears defense ranking prior to Urlacher:
1999 - 21st
1998 - 22nd
1997 - 24th
1996 - 20th
1995 - 22nd
1994 - 15th
1993 - 9th
1992 - 21st
1991 - 6th

Average = 17.8

Bears defense ranking after Urlacher:
2012 - 1st
2011 - 4th
2010 - 4th
2009 - 21st(Urlacher missed entire season)
2008 - 7th
2007 - 10th
2006 - 2nd
2005 - 1st
2004 - 9th
2003 - 16th
2002 - 23rd
2001 - 6th
2000 - 19th*

Average ('09 excluded) = 8.5

Obviously, I'm a big fan of Urlacher, but even I can admit that him being a first ballot is debatable and is certainly not a lock. Mainly because of the lack of hardware.

Not that it matters,  because I don't see it happening anyhow. There is no way that 2 linebackers get in this year and I'm not foolish enough to believe that he was better or more deserving than Ray Lewis. 

Ray Lewis and Urlacher are literally at the same level . When it comes to linebackers from 2000-2009 I always thought Urlacher and Ray Lewis at ILb/MLB they evolutionized the position.

lewis is better due to his SB wins but Urlacher should go in regardless he's way to good to ignore . Hopefully TO and Urlacher and Lewis all go in together and anyone on here can agree with me on that .

[R8DR8five]

I think he deserves to be a first ballot HoF. However, I doubt it, I don't know if they'll vote to MLBs so it goes to Ray Lewis.