2018 College Prospect Thread

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

How has Shane Ray been a hit? I'm just not impressed with him he's showed flashes but they're few and far between.

I've been as critical on Elway for draft mistakes, but Ray's paid off for 2015-16 - in 2015, even though he's just a rookie, his contributions in the 4-man edge rotation in the playoffs was invaluable - 4 EDGES full-bore is what made our pass rush elite (in combo with interior pressure with Malik/Wolfe).   We don't win without having everyone, because we don't keep everyone fresh.  He owns his share - and flags fly forever.   Then in 2016, Ray was the highest rated rookie/2nd year EDGE by PFF - that's right, highest.   10 sacks, 45 pressures in total, highest amongst all rookie/2nd year guys -  PFF's most improved EDGE player in 2016.  

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-most-improved-defensive-players-by-position-last-season

Now, for 2017,  the injury this year, but 2016 wasn't about flashes - Ray was one of our bright spots, why we were leaning on him to take a full load this year..then the injury in TC.   Really hard to pin this on Ray at all.  If you want to ding Ray for the injury for this year, then by all means - but you're just going off what-have-you-done-for-me-lately, and injuries can't really be predicted 2+ years later for a draft record.   Rays's clearly been worth the pick in 2015-16...this year's a lost season for us as a whole, but we can chalk it up to the injury for him, as a wrist injury takes a full 6 months to return to full strength - you can play, but you don't get full power until much later.  Unfortunate yes, but not really his fault.

Which wasn't the point of the post, as it was based on the problems Elway's had in making the right draft picks,  but since you asked on Ray....there's a lot of picks Elway whiffed on, can't really call Ray a bad one at all.  Flags fly forever, and Ray's progress last year showed big things were coming.   I'm glad to see you're coming around to the fact that Elway's draft record needs serious criticism...but this isn't one of those picks.

Anyways, back to the topic at hand.

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

 

 

My ideal choice is for Denver to nab their qb now why their pick is that high.

Now if Baker Mayfield is their guy im cool with that but they need to get the qb now.

That's why it's so important to get Paxton Lynch game action you have to see.

That's the same thinking that led to Elway reaching badly for Lynch Round 1.

If Mayfield has a 2nd-3rd round grade by our evaluation, then don't spend a pick in Round 1 on him.   Stop the reaches for guys who aren't projected to go that early.    It's literally what has led to our current roster problems, as @broncos67  has alluded to.

Now, if Mayfield lights up the Combine and he's going to go Rd 1, make a decision if he's worth it.   But reaching way too early on need is exactly why we suck hard at so many positions, and haven't accumulated the overall roster talent we used to enjoy.    If Mayfield is projected as a 2nd-3rd round guy, spending a top 10-12 pick is a massive waste of draft capital.   And that's exactly the scenarios that create the Christian Ponder type-picks.   Use the CW that Mayfield's physical attributes limit his ceiling so you don't have to reach early.

Frankly, if we can get Mayfield Day 2, then we likely get a great talent in Rd 1 who's an immediate and long-term difference maker.  We haven't had a top 12 pick since Von and Clady - can't deny the effects both guys have had.   If we have to move up for an elite ceiling QB, great, let's do it.  If we like a guy who's not being seen at the same level, then take advantage - and get him at value.   It's the lesson we fail to learn that perennial contenders like Seattle, Pittsburgh, and the re-emerging contenders like Jacksonville and New Orleans (and even ATL's resurgence last year was fuelled by the draft, and great Day 2 choices, not just because of early picks).  

FTR, I don't know who we should target as QBOTF - I just know Elway has to stop over-reaching.   If it's Darnold/Rosen and we have to move up, totally justifiable if they are elite-ceiling guys, top-of-draft guys.   If it's Mayfield at his draft value or just ahead, great.   If it's someone else (FA for example) and we don't overpay so much it puts us in cap hell, awesome.   But accumulating overall talent in the draft at overall BPA and not going for most-pressing-need is the first key step to recovery for our franchise.  Locking in on 1 guy and saying we have to get him, no matter the price, when he's not viewed at value for that slot - that's been our downfall.   Time to go back to value-based and overall talent-based drafting like when Elway first started the rebuild.

[broncos67]

Just spitballing, but to @Broncofan's point above- if we could land Roquan Smith in Round 1 and Baker Mayfield in Round 2, I would have to say our team is upgraded in a significant way. Who knows if it could happen, but if that's where guys are predicted to go, that's how you should address the draft.

This season could absolutely spiral out of control more than it already has. If it does, I wouldn't be surprised to see us have a Top 5 or 6 pick. If we do, I think landing a QB is possible. Like I said, Barkley is a shoe in Top 5 pick. Arden Key/Bradley Chubb are going to go very high as well. From there, I'm sure a few QBs will make the list. Just depends how it shakes out.

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

That's the same thinking that led to Elway reaching badly for Lynch Round 1.

If Mayfield has a 2nd-3rd round grade by our evaluation, then don't spend a pick in Round 1 on him.   Stop the reaches for guys who aren't projected to go that early.    It's literally what has led to our current roster problems, as @broncos67  has alluded to.

Now, if Mayfield lights up the Combine and he's going to go Rd 1, make a decision if he's worth it.   But reaching way too early on need is exactly why we suck hard at so many positions, and haven't accumulated the overall roster talent we used to enjoy.    If Mayfield is projected as a 2nd-3rd round guy, spending a top 10-12 pick is a massive waste of draft capital.   And that's exactly the scenarios that create the Christian Ponder type-picks.   Use the CW that Mayfield's physical attributes limit his ceiling so you don't have to reach early.

Frankly, if we can get Mayfield Day 2, then we likely get a great talent in Rd 1 who's an immediate and long-term difference maker.  We haven't had a top 12 pick since Von and Clady - can't deny the effects both guys have had.   If we have to move up for an elite ceiling QB, great, let's do it.  If we like a guy who's not being seen at the same level, then take advantage - and get him at value.   It's the lesson we fail to learn that perennial contenders like Seattle, Pittsburgh, and the re-emerging contenders like Jacksonville and New Orleans (and even ATL's resurgence last year was fuelled by the draft, and great Day 2 choices, not just because of early picks).  

FTR, I don't know who we should target as QBOTF - I just know Elway has to stop over-reaching.   If it's Darnold/Rosen and we have to move up, totally justifiable if they are elite-ceiling guys, top-of-draft guys.   If it's Mayfield at his draft value or just ahead, great.   If it's someone else (FA for example) and we don't overpay so much it puts us in cap hell, awesome.   But accumulating overall talent in the draft at overall BPA and not going for most-pressing-need is the first key step to recovery for our franchise.  Locking in on 1 guy and saying we have to get him, no matter the price, when he's not viewed at value for that slot - that's been our downfall.   Time to go back to value-based and overall talent-based drafting like when Elway first started the rebuild.

Im nor saying trade up you can take a guy wherever  I just want them to get rheir guy if there's  elite qb talent to be had.

[jsthomp2007]

Here is a pretty good read on Josh Allen...not too many answers, but interesting to say the least.  I like that he is competitive...you can't coach that.  

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/11/14/josh-allen-wyoming-2018-nfl-draft-top-small-school-prospects

 

[thebestever6]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

That's the same thinking that led to Elway reaching badly for Lynch Round 1.

If Mayfield has a 2nd-3rd round grade by our evaluation, then don't spend a pick in Round 1 on him.   Stop the reaches for guys who aren't projected to go that early.    It's literally what has led to our current roster problems, as @broncos67  has alluded to.

Now, if Mayfield lights up the Combine and he's going to go Rd 1, make a decision if he's worth it.   But reaching way too early on need is exactly why we suck hard at so many positions, and haven't accumulated the overall roster talent we used to enjoy.    If Mayfield is projected as a 2nd-3rd round guy, spending a top 10-12 pick is a massive waste of draft capital.   And that's exactly the scenarios that create the Christian Ponder type-picks.   Use the CW that Mayfield's physical attributes limit his ceiling so you don't have to reach early.

Frankly, if we can get Mayfield Day 2, then we likely get a great talent in Rd 1 who's an immediate and long-term difference maker.  We haven't had a top 12 pick since Von and Clady - can't deny the effects both guys have had.   If we have to move up for an elite ceiling QB, great, let's do it.  If we like a guy who's not being seen at the same level, then take advantage - and get him at value.   It's the lesson we fail to learn that perennial contenders like Seattle, Pittsburgh, and the re-emerging contenders like Jacksonville and New Orleans (and even ATL's resurgence last year was fuelled by the draft, and great Day 2 choices, not just because of early picks).  

FTR, I don't know who we should target as QBOTF - I just know Elway has to stop over-reaching.   If it's Darnold/Rosen and we have to move up, totally justifiable if they are elite-ceiling guys, top-of-draft guys.   If it's Mayfield at his draft value or just ahead, great.   If it's someone else (FA for example) and we don't overpay so much it puts us in cap hell, awesome.   But accumulating overall talent in the draft at overall BPA and not going for most-pressing-need is the first key step to recovery for our franchise.  Locking in on 1 guy and saying we have to get him, no matter the price, when he's not viewed at value for that slot - that's been our downfall.   Time to go back to value-based and overall talent-based drafting like when Elway first started the rebuild.

My thought process is the same one the eagles used identify your guy and if you have to trade up do it if you're within  striking distance because all first rounders aren't created equal. 

[Scoundrel]

Baker is going round 1

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Counselor said:

Baker is going round 1

You've probably done more research than anyone here so far, so I defer to your judgment here - but man, it's November.  So long between now and Draft Day to be calling draft spots.  Still, I admire the boldness, full props for making a stand.

[Scoundrel]

12 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

You've probably done more research than anyone here so far, so I defer to your judgment here - but man, it's November.  So long between now and Draft Day to be calling draft spots.  Still, I admire the boldness, full props for making a stand.

I don't know about more research but that dude is a playmaker and a passionate leader. He has made his mistakes but I would love for him to be leading my team on Sunday's. And I think more than one team will fall in love with him cementing him in round 1.

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, Counselor said:

I don't know about more research but that dude is a playmaker and a passionate leader. He has made his mistakes but I would love for him to be leading my team on Sunday's. And I think more than one team will fall in love with him cementing him in round 1.

Trust me you and @BroncosFan2010 are like the only 2 year round guys here who are on the College Prospect Forum year round.   Don’t be modest lol (not like it guarantees calls are right or wrong but gotta salute that level of commitment and it helps lol).  I’ve only just started doing research a few weeks ago.  

If we land a top 5-10 pick though we’d be way better off moving up for a true elite ceiling qb of the big 2 than reach way ahead of Mayfield’s slot.  So many elite difference makers available if we get that high. 

[Scoundrel]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Trust me you and @BroncosFan2010 are like the only 2 year round guys here who are on the College Prospect Forum year round.   Don’t be modest lol (not like it guarantees calls are right or wrong but gotta salute that level of commitment and it helps lol).  I’ve only just started doing research a few weeks ago.  

If we land a top 5-10 pick though we’d be way better off moving up for a true elite ceiling qb of the big 2 than reach way ahead of Mayfield’s slot.  So many elite difference makers available if we get that high. 

I don't see the big 2 as better is my argument. 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, Counselor said:

I don't see the big 2 as better is my argument. 

If that’s the case though I’d take @broncos67 approach and go BPA with another elite player and if needed move up from our early 2nd to the late 1st if we want Mayfield and he won’t fall to us at Rd 2.   Get 2 upgrades.  

Now if you really think Mayfield is that good I just don’t see it.  It’s hard to see him rising that high.  And again I’m against reaching big for need.  A top 5-8 pick is getting us an elite player if we don’t fall into the trap of reaching for need.  

In the end though it’s all speculation.  Once the bowl season Senior Bowl and Combine hits we will know better where the guys all land slot wise. 

[Scoundrel]

7 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

If that’s the case though I’d take @broncos67 approach and go BPA with another elite player and if needed move up from our early 2nd to the late 1st if we want Mayfield and he won’t fall to us at Rd 2.   Get 2 upgrades.  

Now if you really think Mayfield is that good I just don’t see it.  It’s hard to see him rising that high.  And again I’m against reaching big for need.  A top 5-8 pick is getting us an elite player if we don’t fall into the trap of reaching for need.  

In the end though it’s all speculation.  Once the bowl season Senior Bowl and Combine hits we will know better where the guys all land slot wise. 

We will see in a few years 

[germ-x]

I haven't watched Allen yet.  No doubt about it though, the size, athleticism, arm strength is Carson Wentz-esque.  He definitely really intrigues me after Darnold. 

The accuracy issues are a major red flag, though.  And I am even someone who thinks looking at college completion percentage can be incredibly misleading.

Its about making NFL throws and that is where I care about the accuracy.  So many QBs have their completion % inflated simply because of the spread and getting the ball out quickly.  15-20 years ago no one batted an eye at a QB completing 60-63% of their passes.  Hell Eli Manning had a year where he completed 58%.  However, Allens 56% is worrisome.

I remember listening to Brian Billick who said his biggest mistake was drafting Kyle Boller.  He said the only thing Boller lacked was accuracy and that he believed he could coach it.  He said he was completely wrong in that assumption.

[Scoundrel]

I mean ideally I would like to get Nelson or Orlando Brown first and trade back up for Baker. Trade up could cost 2nd 3rd ATL's 5th. Obviously BPA is a good approach but we need a QB and Oline help.

1.6 Q. Nelson

1.27 B. Mayfield

3 (Comp Pick)- M. Ivey

4. (SF)-  ILB (need to research more)

4. WR

5. ILB (we need to hit on this)

6. Dline

7. QB (Late Flyer)