Brit Pack Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) Looking at it this way there are 21 players (in blue) who will certainly be gone by the 30th pick. If we are trading up it is because a) someone massively dropped b) we are getting someone who is at the bottom of tier 1 and who we really really like e.g Jefferson, Jones or Queen. That leaves 26 players who form tier 2 (light brown). If we stay at 30 another 8 of those players will be gone. That then leaves a pool of 14 players to pick from, the biggest 'chunk' of those players will be WRs and CBs. A trade back then would mean you would probably comfortably be able to pick up someone we liked and an additional extra pick. Trading back more than 14 spots removes you from this 2nd tier, most likely. If we are staying at 30 it looks like we are taking a player we must really like or just couldn't get a deal done to trade back. The interesting player here is Baun. If you like him and the position he plays, you take quite a risk with a trade back as there are no other options in this tier. I think he could be quite interesting in this defence. Playing in the middle and then being the 3rd/4th edge guy as well. Would that role warrant a 1st round selection, I'm not sure? It really then comes down to four positional groups then, WRs, OTs, DT/DEs, CBs. Personally not sold on any of those OTs at 30. CBs could be, just question both the need and BPA at 30. There is a short supply of good DT/DE, so 30 could very well be a pick for one if we liked them enough. Maybe the better spot in terms of value for that position is the 2nd round we would probably still have some names we might like at 62 e.g. Davidson, Davis, Elliot, or Hamilton. WRs we can pick up anywhere across this draft. In terms of getting meaningful playing time from your 1st rounder. An OT would most likely be sitting this year. A WR would hardly be coming into the rotation with Adams, Funchess and Lazard in front of them at a minimum, so does that developmental guy warrant a 1st round selection?. DE/DT you could get meaningful snaps in 2020. Same could be said for ILB/Edge in Baun. CBs I guess we could never have enough of them and they could be getting meaningful snaps in 2020 and King is a FA in 2021. I think I have talked myself into the reality that our first pick most likely will be defensive guy and could really actually be a CB which when this process first started I never thought would be a reality. Anyway, an end to all the speculation and let's see what really happens now!!!! Edited April 23, 2020 by Brit Pack 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 You assume you have all of the first round selections in your list. I'll guess you don't and 3 -4 surprise names pop into the top 30 that are not on your list. Let's get this thing rolling! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spilltray Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Yeah I wouldn't be too "certainly" there are 3-4 guys the media had no idea on every year. This year I have a feeling its going to seem even more wild because I think there are going to be even more of them than usual. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share Posted April 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, spilltray said: Yeah I wouldn't be too "certainly" there are 3-4 guys the media had no idea on every year. This year I have a feeling its going to seem even more wild because I think there are going to be even more of them than usual. No certainties for sure. Just playing with probabilities and what most likely will happen. That way when we select a CB I don't totally lose it!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spilltray Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Im just saying I think you have to add at least 5 guys into that first tier no one expects that means the 21 players becomes 26 and trades up much more attractive. There are going to be a few guys on the board no one expected like Bulaga for example was. It happens every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, spilltray said: Yeah I wouldn't be too "certainly" there are 3-4 guys the media had no idea on every year. This year I have a feeling its going to seem even more wild because I think there are going to be even more of them than usual. Totally agree. Without face to face interviews, pro days, etc. there will be surprises for sure in this draft! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share Posted April 23, 2020 1 minute ago, spilltray said: Im just saying I think you have to add at least 5 guys into that first tier no one expects that means the 21 players becomes 26 and trades up much more attractive. There are going to be a few guys on the board no one expected like Bulaga for example was. It happens every year. For sure. The surprise will be if they come beyond these 46 players listed. That to me is the surprise. I did acknowledge there could be a trade-up if a player from the first tier does drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spilltray Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Brit Pack said: For sure. The surprise will be if they come beyond these 46 players listed. That to me is the surprise. I did acknowledge there could be a trade-up if a player from the first tier does drop. There will be. There is every year. I expect more variance than usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pacman5252 Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Typically after the blue chip guys (top 20ish), players 21-60 are usually graded pretty equally. Lots of scout/scheme preferences Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWH87 Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 If our flavor is DB which I’m ok with, give me a trade back to early 2nd and Fulton allllll day long. However if it’s defense with the first pick and we stay put I’m leaning Baun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share Posted April 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, GWH87 said: if it’s defense with the first pick and we stay put I’m leaning Baun. It starting to make too much sense that Baun at 30 is the pick. Lack of supply for that kind of role in this draft, we have injury prone starter at ILB and we have a hole at OLB for a depth rusher as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannondale Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Brit Pack said: It starting to make too much sense that Baun at 30 is the pick. Lack of supply for that kind of role in this draft, we have injury prone starter at ILB and we have a hole at OLB for a depth rusher as well. I hate the idea. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, cannondale said: I hate the idea. Cosigned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hitnhope Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 He's not the kind of edge we use. Convert to a non-premium position in the 1st round? Sounds like a bad idea to me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccecilnosebleed Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 I'm half expecting if we stand pat at 30 that we'll end up picking someone everyone thought was going to go bottom of the second or early third. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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