Niners traded up for Brandon Aiyuk at 25 WR

[Ronnie's Pinky]

55 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Sort of. I'd adjust it further to suggest that's it's Shanahan/Lynch's evaluations clouding their picture of every other team's evaluations that's really my issue. There's that report about the Dolphins that I don't buy that they wanted Aiyuk at #26. And I don't buy it, because otherwise, the only other explanation for why they don't have a single receiver among their draft class was that they were too depressed after missing out on Aiyuk that they just ignored the position through their last nine picks.

You had the Vikings originally at pick #25 - they had just taken Jefferson. The Seahawks didn't need a receiver and didn't take one until the 6th. Everyone knew the Ravens needed a linebacker and would look that way, and they didn't pick up a WR until their 4th pick (late 3rd). The Titans didn't have a need for WR and didn't draft one. And the Packers didn't need a WR and didn't draft a WR. While the Colts took a WR at the bottom of the 2nd, you're not overly concerned about them jumping you for a prospect given that you are well enough aware that they are missing draft picks. And this is true - the Bengals, who also took a WR - the last time they traded up in the first 3 rounds was in 2002 when they traded an extra 5th to move up 6 spots in the 3rd round. The last time they traded up in the first round was in 1995 for Ki-Jana Carter. They just don't do it. The Bengals also were not a threat. 

So you have somebody who valued a WR, supposedly as #1, maybe #2 on his board - something that clearly didn't match the views of the five teams to take a WR before us, AND then traded up for fear of losing out on a prospect where it's highly suspect any other team would actually take him before #31. 

It's not just as simple saying "I hate the trade up" or "I hate the trade up for Aiyuk" - it's "I hate this very specific trade that happened in these very specific circumstances, and it's a seemingly common trend for our front office making me feel like this could just be a specific weakness/blind spot for them that they aren't going to fix." It's a lot more nuanced than what's being proposed as the contention.

For instance - if the beginning of the draft goes a little weirder, there are certain scenarios where this specific trade up for Aiyuk would make a lot more sense. For instance, if instead of Becton, the Jets take Lamb at #11, and then at #17, the Cowboys take Justin Jefferson. When #21 sends Reagor to Philly you're probably sweating out #22 as you wouldn't have the ammo. But say Minnesota goes Gladney at #22 (they took him at #31) without Jefferson on the board. Now you have a situation where at #25, there's a WR-needy team that just traded away Diggs that you know you might need to jump. I don't know if the Vikings would still make the trade for #25 so you might need to go a spot higher if it's possible. But in THAT scenario, a trade-up makes a lot of sense, and a trade-up specifically for Aiyuk is highly defensible.

In the world and scenario in which it happened - it just doesn't make much sense. It shows a poor understanding of all of the elements of scouting - which isn't a matter of knowing only what you need to do, but knowing what every other team needs to do as well.

So you think you understand what other NFL teams were going to do at the draft better than the front office did? Or perhaps you think Shanahan just got giddy again about some shiny new toy, and then made up a lie to explain it after the fact? Or maybe you think he just believed some bad intel, and you are less gullible?

Holy overthinking, batman! You're making a huge pile of assumptions about the preferences of other teams with no more information to go on than pre-draft rosters and some random anecdotes you can remember. I mean...who cares that the Bengals haven't traded up in the 1st since 1995? That was probably 20 administrations ago for that crap franchise! I doubt that they are still sitting around in Cincinnati wringing their hands about Ki-Jana Carter.

We will never know what information they did and didn't have during the draft. This is silly...it's like criticizing someone's answers on a math test without having actually seen the questions. If you want to go on believing that the front office are bumbling nincompoops, so be it. I might be more inclined to take that position, myself, if the product on the field were not of such high quality.

[Ronnie's Pinky]

6 hours ago, Forge said:

I am insulted by the notion that you appear to be suggesting that because people are amateurs, that their opinions are somehow devalued or less worthwhile. It's not the phrase amateurs that I have an issue with. It's the idea of, "who cares what you think, you're just a dude on a message board", or, "you don't know what you're talking about because you're just an amateur on a message board".

You are really letting the word "amateur" kick your *** here, aren't you? But yes...your opinions are literally "devalued" by the fact that no one gives up anything of "value" (like money) in order to obtain them. That's pretty much the definition of being an amateur. And yes, I absolutely do think that your opinion of player evaluation (as well as mine and everyone else's here) is considerably less "worthwhile" than that of Kyle Shanahan and/or John Lynch. It's only sensible...we're just a couple of randos on a message board. Also, you have stated that you cannot see Brandon Aiyuk's obviously blazing speed on film, which baffles me. With respect to this specific prospect, I think you've already demonstrated that your take is of little value.

I'll re-phrase what I said earlier so as to not upset you: there's a reason why they are getting paid millions to do this, and why they took a derelict franchise and got them to the Superbowl within three years. It's not about your opinion being worthless...it's about theirs being considerably more valuable.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Ronnie's Pinky

[y2lamanaki]

 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Ronnie's Pinky said:

So you think you understand what other NFL teams were going to do at the draft better than the front office did? Or perhaps you think Shanahan just got giddy again about some shiny new toy, and then made up a lie to explain it after the fact? Or maybe you think he just believed some bad intel, and you are less gullible?

 

No, I think I'm an American with free speech on a football forum trying to talk about football. 

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Ronnie's Pinky said:

Holy overthinking, batman! You're making a huge pile of assumptions about the preferences of other teams with no more information to go on than pre-draft rosters and some random anecdotes you can remember. I mean...who cares that the Bengals haven't traded up in the 1st since 1995? That was probably 20 administrations ago for that crap franchise! I doubt that they are still sitting around in Cincinnati wringing their hands about Ki-Jana Carter.

You're becoming really combative, and it's very strange that I'm the one who has to point this out. Believe me. There's nobody less self-aware of that than me. But here are some articles for you about the Bengals and their reluctance to make trades due to ownership philosophy that hasn't changed since 1991 (before Carter) - also it might help to understand that the Bengals are one of the franchises where the owner is the de-facto GM, like Jerry Jones in Dallas. It might help you catch up a bit: 

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/12/1/18112249/bengals-gm-candidates-for-mike-brown-to-consider-hiring

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2019/10/27/cbs-nfl-teams-frustrated-cincinnati-bengals-trade-deadline/2478745001/

https://www.espn.com/blog/cincinnati-bengals/post/_/id/28769/bengals-last-midseason-trade-acquisition-came-in-the-disco-era

I apologize for assuming this was common knowledge, but I wasn't making a random anecdote about 20 administrations ago. I was making a very relevant statement about a franchise that hasn't had a change in administration in almost 30 years. 

[oldman9er]

1 hour ago, y2lamanaki said:

 

So you have somebody who valued a WR, supposedly as #1, maybe #2 on his board - something that clearly didn't match the views of the five teams to take a WR before us, AND then traded up for fear of losing out on a prospect where it's highly suspect any other team would actually take him before #31. 

t you need to do, but knowing what every other team needs to do as well.

I kinda thought the same thing about this one, y2. 

I got the feeling that ShannyLynch maybe had some sneaky lifelines/spies out there and knew from a specific team or two that there was high risk of losing their precious Aiyuk prior to 31.. and maybe they felt that he was too much their guy to take that chance. 

Either way, whatever. Seems too minor a resource trade up anyway, but that's jmo. 

 

[y2lamanaki]

1 minute ago, oldman9er said:

I kinda thought the same thing about this one, y2. 

I got the feeling that ShannyLynch maybe had some sneaky lifelines/spies out there and knew from a specific team or two that there was high risk of losing their precious Aiyuk prior to 31.. and maybe they felt that he was too much their guy to take that chance. 

Either way, whatever. Seems too minor a resource trade up anyway, but that's jmo. 

 

I think what's most interesting is that I don't really even have a deep hatred for the move. I'm just defending being able to be unhappy about it. Yes, I'd have waited until #31, but I like Aiyuk a lot and am over the loss of picks. 

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

I think what's most interesting is that I don't really even have a deep hatred for the move. I'm just defending being able to be unhappy about it. Yes, I'd have waited until #31, but I like Aiyuk a lot and am over the loss of picks. 

You should know that this is a message board and not a place for opinions to be shared and discussed.  

[Forge]

33 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Yes, I'd have waited until #31, but I like Aiyuk a lot and am over the loss of picks. 

Same boat. I wouldn't have made the trade up, don't really have issues with the player or where he was chosen. Biggest concern is over fit, but I'll trust Shanny to take care of that and keep him away from getting dominated by press corners. The trade up discussions are ones that happen every single year. It mostly just gives us something to talk about during a very long off season (one that will be even longer this year).  I don't think that anyone really sits at home and laments the loss of the third round pick that was used to acquire Pettis, for example. The trade was what it was. 

[Forge]

48 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

I got the feeling that ShannyLynch maybe had some sneaky lifelines/spies out there and knew from a specific team or two that there was high risk of losing their precious Aiyuk prior to 31.. and maybe they felt that he was too much their guy to take that chance. 

 

Have you ever wondered about who the sources in an organization would be for another team? Do you think that it's actual coaching staff guys who may just have a relationship with people on other teams (like maybe a random assistant who was formerly an assistant with Shanny or on a previous staff or something)? Do you think it's like secretaries and office workers and people like that? In my head, I just keep seeing Lynch or Shanny going to some clandestine, back alley meeting with a member of the janitorial staff paying them for info because it makes me giggle. 

[oldman9er]

33 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

I think what's most interesting is that I don't really even have a deep hatred for the move. I'm just defending being able to be unhappy about it. Yes, I'd have waited until #31, but I like Aiyuk a lot and am over the loss of picks. 

Oh, absolutely, on all privileges in being unhappy, happy, etc. 

I'm happy with Aiyuk too. I was a bit disgruntled with the move up.. but less so when I further considered the small value in the day 3 picks given to do so. Seems they clearly didn't like some day 2 wideouts much, like I did, and there was no small amount of em. 

Just saying, when I heard all the press conference talk afterwards, I got the feeling that 1) either they did have a secret pipeline into where some others might target Aiyuk... or 2) they are full of poopy, and felt the need to justify the Aiyukobsession. 

As for the other part about forum posters knowing more than the F/O... lol, hey I've been on both sides of this one. I know what it's like to think I'm a SuperScout because I googled many prospect highlight vids, and exercised my GM mock powers for months.  

 

[oldman9er]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

Have you ever wondered about who the sources in an organization would be for another team? Do you think that it's actual coaching staff guys who may just have a relationship with people on other teams (like maybe a random assistant who was formerly an assistant with Shanny or on a previous staff or something)? Do you think it's like secretaries and office workers and people like that? In my head, I just keep seeing Lynch or Shanny going to some clandestine, back alley meeting with a member of the janitorial staff paying them for info because it makes me giggle. 

LMAO! yeah, similar fun ponderings. 

I don't think it's quite so far down the ladder as janitors (sorry gents, we love and need the cleanups u do)... but I think many GMs/coaches do have their hands in many areas.. and sometimes they share things u would think unethical or unwise to their own logo. 

[Ronnie's Pinky]

Whatever clandestine intelligence the FO may have had about who liked Aiyuk, my guess is that Herm Edwards - John Lynch's apparent best friend and Aiyuk's former coach - was probably at the center of it. Anybody who was interested in Aiyuk almost certainly went to Edwards...this year, there's hardly any other option. Yeah...if there was some sort of back-room intel on this one (and there might not have been...front offices do lie for strategic reasons), Herm Edwards was at the center of it, feeding his old friend all the information he could.

[Chrissooner49er]

2 hours ago, Ronnie's Pinky said:

Whatever clandestine intelligence the FO may have had about who liked Aiyuk, my guess is that Herm Edwards - John Lynch's apparent best friend and Aiyuk's former coach - was probably at the center of it. Anybody who was interested in Aiyuk almost certainly went to Edwards...this year, there's hardly any other option. Yeah...if there was some sort of back-room intel on this one (and there might not have been...front offices do lie for strategic reasons), Herm Edwards was at the center of it, feeding his old friend all the information he could.

With the ties the Edwards and Lynchs have? I could DEFINITELY see Herm telling John who else called and how interested they were. Herm could absolutely be a source of any intel there may have been.

[Forge]

5 hours ago, 757-NINER said:

You always explain my pov in more comprehensive way lol...

 

He does the same for me. I'm very shotgun in my conversational approach

[49erurtaza]

 

[Ronnie's Pinky]

3 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:

With the ties the Edwards and Lynchs have? I could DEFINITELY see Herm telling John who else called and how interested they were. Herm could absolutely be a source of any intel there may have been.

According to Lynch, they are best friends; presumably, it's the Tampa connection. I think Lynch said as much in the Cowherd interview I posted in this thread.