The QB Thread: Everything Carr, Stidham and beyond...

[BackinBlack]

7 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Can you explain why Jacobs, who you claim is amongst the best backs in the NFL and is still only 24, just had his 5th year option declined? 

Well I mean, It is possible, and Id argue likely based of NE system, that JMD doesnt value RBs that highly in general. 
He could think Josh is a top tier RB, but just didnt want to pay any RB 8 mil in general. 
Maybe he thought Josh is a top tier RB but Hunter is a top tier Slot WR, and he thinks the gap between top tier and 2nd in Slot WR is greater then RB so hed rather pay Hunter. 

There is a lot of reasons one could argue. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

1 hour ago, BackinBlack said:

Well I mean, It is possible, and Id argue likely based of NE system, that JMD doesnt value RBs that highly in general. 
He could think Josh is a top tier RB, but just didnt want to pay any RB 8 mil in general. 
Maybe he thought Josh is a top tier RB but Hunter is a top tier Slot WR, and he thinks the gap between top tier and 2nd in Slot WR is greater then RB so hed rather pay Hunter. 

There is a lot of reasons one could argue. 

If we had Derek Henry, J. Taylor or any of the true elite backs in the same situation (24YO with 5th year option) as Jacobs there is no chance they decline his 5th year.  The most plausible option is that Ziegler and JM don't view Jacobs as an elite RB which he is not. 

[Humble_Beast]

I think Jacobs can have a Joe Mixon type of break out in 2022. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

1 hour ago, Humble_Beast said:

I think Jacobs can have a Joe Mixon type of break out in 2022. 

I can see Jacobs having his best season this year.  He's in a contract year with much improved supporting cast. 

If he can stay healthy and the Oline can play at an average level he should have a nice year.  I'm interested to see how much we use Drake though.  

[ronjon1990]

On 6/3/2022 at 6:32 PM, NYRaider said:

If Jacobs is so bad can you please explain to me why only a handful of RB's have been more productive?

Plenty of RBs have padded stats without really being top tier. And some people care less about fantasy stats than others. 

More directly, 3 straight years of declining yardage and YPC doesn't help. Last year, going into the home stretch, he was averaging well under 4 ypc and got lucky to play banged up middling Run D's that helped him keep his YPC remotely respectable. 

His total yards from scrimmage rank 14, 9, and 11. Nobody has made the argument that he's hot garbage. I myself said I'd welcome him back on a modest deal. 

In 2019, he was about 50 yards ahead of 15th ranked Mark Ingram, and about 15 yards from 12th ranked Alvin Kamara. As starters go, middle of the pack. 11th ranked Joe Mixon was a solid 100 yards ahead. He was out of the top 5 (aka: handful) by well over 300 yards. Not even close to top 10 status and certainly not top 5. 

In 2020 he was well ahead of, #10 and just behind #8. But he was 160 yards short of the top "handful" of 5. 

In 2021, he was a solid 200+ away from that grouping. 

In all 3 years, he was out-produced by:

Elliot, Henry, Cook, Jones, Kamara, Taylor, and Harris in every year they were in the league. 

In 2 of the 3 years, he was also out-produced by:

Ekeler (injured most of 2020)

Fournette (just behind Jacobs in 2020)

Mixon (injured most of 2020)

Nick Chubb (2019 and 2021). 

 

Jacobs highest ranking for yards from scrimmage (9th in 2020) was aided by McCaffrey, Ekeler, Carson, and Mixon literally missing most of the year. 2 other guys rebounded from 2020 to best him. 

If we're being strict on the numbers and not counting injuries that had guys on the shelf, he's been out-produced every possible year by 7 guys. If we're counting the injuries and guys who came back to top him in 2021, that number rises to 11, not counting McCaffrey being a better RB when he plays, and crossing Carson off the list entirely as he probably doesn't play again. 

Thus, on average, Jacobs falls somewhere in the league above average for production among RBs. He's routinely been out-produced by more than just a "handful" of RBs as you assert, again highly aided by several who otherwise out-produce him missing significant time in 2020. 

He's decidedly in the top 1/2 of the league, but far from being among the true elite RBs year in, year out. Unless you're prepared to call nearly 1/3 of the league's starting RBs "elite", he falls outside of that mark. 

Of those he falls behind, Fournette was the only one ditched, and let's be honest- he literally forced his way out of Jacksonville. Yet it's abundantly clear the writing is on the wall that Jacobs is very likely not being retained. 

He's ok, he's not great. He's nowhere close to a top 5 RB, questionably top 10 if we're being generous, probably in the 11-15 range. Many are more productive across all 3 years, and even more are usually more productive, and often by a pretty decent amount. 

So your premise isn't even mathematically correct to begin with. 

 

[NickButera]

https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2022/06/05/derek-carr-past-raiders-regimes-chose-to-slow-play-qb-situation-but-josh-mcdaniels-committed-to-me/

 

Quote

Carr told Breer that the phone call “showed me who they are” and signaled that swirling rumors about his job security are a thing of the past.

“They told me that they were committed to me. And the cool thing, too, is, in public, they’ve been committed to me. Usually when you get a new coach, GM, they kind of slow-play it like, Oh, we’ll see …

“I’ve been through that. My future is always up in the air, it seems like. But these guys just made it clear, No, we believe in you, and you’re our guy, and we believe we can win with you. And we’re going to prove that to you, too. We’re gonna sign you to an extension.”

Pretty neat article. Good for Carr. And it's nice that we have a staff and office that fully believes they can win with exactly what they have, and not settling for the next best thing. 

[ronjon1990]

4 hours ago, NickButera said:

https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2022/06/05/derek-carr-past-raiders-regimes-chose-to-slow-play-qb-situation-but-josh-mcdaniels-committed-to-me/

 

Pretty neat article. Good for Carr. And it's nice that we have a staff and office that fully believes they can win with exactly what they have, and not settling for the next best thing. 

I've thought about things like this before. I know the common theme is "light a fire under a guys butt" by slow rolling things, bringing in competition, etc. 

I think that works better for guys who are genuinely on the hot seat. For others, I can see it being a constant albatross.

I like Carr. Always have. And he certainly improved a lot his first 2-3 years in the league when he had virtually no questions about the team's commitment to him. It feels like he has almost been stuck in neutral once the rumors and shaky ground started. We'd see flashes of excellence, but then see a dud. 

When I look around the league, the most successful QBs seem to be the ones who have support and commitment and know they're "the guy". It's a little bit of a chicken or the egg dilemma, but I wonder how much of an impact these things have on someone producing. 

[BackinBlack]

On 6/4/2022 at 5:02 PM, Frankie2Gunz said:

If we had Derek Henry, J. Taylor or any of the true elite backs in the same situation (24YO with 5th year option) as Jacobs there is no chance they decline his 5th year.  The most plausible option is that Ziegler and JM don't view Jacobs as an elite RB which he is not. 

Def not trying to argue that Jacobs is on those guys tier. 
Just paying a RB 8 mil, or 9.8 for one of those two, could in theory be deemed not worth it by coaches across the league. 

There are a lot of coaches that would prefer to have 3 decent RBs over 1 stud IMO. I think JMD is one of them. 

They also may just want to evaluate Jacobs in their system before paying him. 

I agree its the most plausible option, but its not the only option. 

[NYRaider]

On 6/5/2022 at 9:02 PM, ronjon1990 said:

He's decidedly in the top 1/2 of the league, but far from being among the true elite RBs year in, year out. Unless you're prepared to call nearly 1/3 of the league's starting RBs "elite", he falls outside of that mark. 

He's ok, he's not great. He's nowhere close to a top 5 RB, questionably top 10 if we're being generous, probably in the 11-15 range. Many are more productive across all 3 years, and even more are usually more productive, and often by a pretty decent amount. 

So we agree, he's a good but not great starter. The way some of you talk about him I'd assume he was terrible. I don't think Jacobs is some all-pro level player but he's still one of the better starting RBs in the NFL. Definitely not someone I'd invest a huge deal into or that can't be replaced. But he is one of the few first round picks we've had in decades that has consistently produced for us.

[NYRaider]

On 6/3/2022 at 8:52 PM, Frankie2Gunz said:

If Jacobs were to hit the FA market how much do you think he would command?  

12M is a bit steep for Mixon who I consider one of the best RB's in the NFL.  There are very few RB's I would give 10M to but Mixon is on that list with his 1500 Yards/16 TD's compared to 1200/Jacobs 9.  He should have another monster season.

Mixon got his extension when he was coming off of a 1,400/8 TD season though. 

[NYRaider]

On 6/4/2022 at 12:49 PM, Frankie2Gunz said:

😂😂😂 Well he mentioned Jacobs being on par with Henry, Zeke, Cook etc.  Those types of players don't get their 5th year options declined or hit FA when they are 24 years old and still in their prime years.  

If Jacobs is truly amongst the eilte backs in the NFL like @NYRaiderclaims then he must be suggesting that he thinks JM and Ziegler are incompetent.  Would an NFL GM decline a 5th year option an "elite" RB still in the heart of their prime that are on par with Cook, Zeke and Henry?  

Again when did I ever say that Jacobs is amongst the truly elite RB's in the NFL? You also realize that Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, etc. didn't even have 5th year options because they weren't 1st round picks, right? lol. 

 

[NYRaider]

On 6/4/2022 at 5:02 PM, Frankie2Gunz said:

If we had Derek Henry, J. Taylor or any of the true elite backs in the same situation (24YO with 5th year option) as Jacobs there is no chance they decline his 5th year.  The most plausible option is that Ziegler and JM don't view Jacobs as an elite RB which he is not. 

Henry, Taylor, etc. didn't have 5th year options because they weren't first round picks. The Patriots just traded away Sony Michel last year who was a former first round pick as well and replaced his production with two mid round players in Harris/Stevenson. Derrick Henry's production was significantly lower than Jacobs his first three seasons in Tennessee, lol. 

McDaniels and Ziegler clearly think they can replace Jacobs with younger, cheaper options. After seeing their success with Harris/Stevenson it's easy to see why and you can't knock them for it. When you've committed big money to your QB, two WR, and have a TE that's due for an extension too someone is going to have to be let go.

[NYRaider]

On 6/6/2022 at 4:31 PM, NickButera said:

https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2022/06/05/derek-carr-past-raiders-regimes-chose-to-slow-play-qb-situation-but-josh-mcdaniels-committed-to-me/

Pretty neat article. Good for Carr. And it's nice that we have a staff and office that fully believes they can win with exactly what they have, and not settling for the next best thing. 

Gruden/Mayock didn't draft a QB during their whole tenure.

[ronjon1990]

7 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Henry, Taylor, etc. didn't have 5th year options because they weren't first round picks. The Patriots just traded away Sony Michel last year who was a former first round pick as well and replaced his production with two mid round players in Harris/Stevenson. Derrick Henry's production was significantly lower than Jacobs his first three seasons in Tennessee, lol. 

McDaniels and Ziegler clearly think they can replace Jacobs with younger, cheaper options. After seeing their success with Harris/Stevenson it's easy to see why and you can't knock them for it. When you've committed big money to your QB, two WR, and have a TE that's due for an extension too someone is going to have to be let go.

Interestly enough, the last time the same guy led the Pats in rushing more than 2 consecutive years was Corey Dillon back in like 06. 

McDaniels definitely seems to be able to cycle through RBs (big name and no name) without having much of a drop off on success. 

[NYRaider]

Just now, ronjon1990 said:

Interestly enough, the last time the same guy led the Pats in rushing more than 2 consecutive years was Corey Dillon back in like 06. 

McDaniels definitely seems to be able to cycle through RBs (big name and no name) without having much of a drop off on success. 

Jacobs $8M option would've made him like the 8th highest paid RB in the league. IIRC we're only set to have like $20 in cap space next offseason and that was before Renfrow/Waller's new contracts. Just way too much money to tie into skill position players, imo. 

Zamir White and a rookie will probably be our RB duo going forward.