The QB Thread: Everything Carr, Stidham and beyond...

[Darbsk]

9 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

This is an example of why you should not just look at stats.  How you rate relative to your teammates has so much to do with how much opportunity you get which is the biggest aspect of statistical output.  This is what I like to call the Nnamdi effect.  Whether Nnamdi was great or not did not matter because he was so much better than his teammates.  Did apposing QBs not look his way because their was no chance for a completion or was it that you could complete 70% of your passes throwing to the other side of the field.  You would have to watch the game instead of seeing that he was only thrown at a handful of times a year for a couple years.  When he left to Phi was it the system or that the CBs opposite from him were closer to his level so he was tested more and exposed.  No way of knowing without watching the games. Eye test + stats + understanding what was being attempted.

Exactly, stats are useful but only when taken in context. With football specifically there are so many stats being collated and collected these days you can basically cherry pick to make any argument you like.

Statistically, I expect Carr to be around 2016 levels this year, hopefully he'll get close to replicating the belief, confidence and never say die attitude he had then that has been missing a little the last couple years. His stats have been decent but the eye test recently shows he's missing something that hopefully we can rekindle this year with better coaching and improved supporting cast. I feel that confidence in the receivers and supporting cast is the most important thing for Carr.

[drfrey13]

2 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Exactly, stats are useful but only when taken in context. With football specifically there are so many stats being collated and collected these days you can basically cherry pick to make any argument you like.

Statistically, I expect Carr to be around 2016 levels this year, hopefully he'll get close to replicating the belief, confidence and never say die attitude he had then that has been missing a little the last couple years. His stats have been decent but the eye test recently shows he's missing something that hopefully we can rekindle this year with better coaching and improved supporting cast. I feel that confidence in the receivers and supporting cast is the most important thing for Carr.

I would love the 2016 level and those games were very entertaining.  I was almost having a heart attack every week.  Now with a good run game we can run the 4 minute offense without scoring quickly and relying on the defense to close it out.  I will also not need to worry about my blood pressure.

[Darbsk]

1 hour ago, drfrey13 said:

I would love the 2016 level and those games were very entertaining.  I was almost having a heart attack every week.  Now with a good run game we can run the 4 minute offense without scoring quickly and relying on the defense to close it out.  I will also not need to worry about my blood pressure.

It was strange, at the beginning of the year it was very nervy as we'd been bad for so, so long but as the year progressed I felt strangely confident that whatever happened we'd be able to pull out a couple plays on D and Carr would just drive us down the field to score, almost like a pre written script, certainly one if the most enjoyable years I've ever watched 😀

I remember watching Carr go down and having that feeling in the pit of my stomach like my soul had just been ripped out, such a huge deflation as I just knew that was the end of our run that year, damn it we were so confident I think we could have really surprised in the playoffs! 

[NYRaider]

On 7/3/2020 at 8:20 AM, Frankie2Gunz said:

"Cut him for Jamis, Fitztrash, Taylor or Foles", "The losses are all Carr's fault" and "trade him for a 2nd"  are some of my favorites I'll remember for years LOL 

The goal of playing football is to win games. We're like 3-35 against playoff teams with Carr and have had a winning record once in 6 seasons. We've won 39 games with Carr at QB and won 34 games in the previous 6 seasons before he got here with 10 different QB's starting games for us during that stretch. 

During Drew Brees 2017 season the Saints won 11 games, won their division, and finished 2nd in total offense/4th in scoring offense. 

With Carr last season we won 7 games, missed the playoffs, 11th in total offense/24th in scoring offense. It gets even worse when you take into account that we didn't beat a single team last year that finished the season with a winning record. Over the last three seasons we're 3-22 vs teams that have finished the season above .500. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

43 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The goal of playing football is to win games. We're like 3-35 against playoff teams with Carr and have had a winning record once in 6 seasons. We've won 39 games with Carr at QB and won 34 games in the previous 6 seasons before he got here with 10 different QB's starting games for us during that stretch. 

During Drew Brees 2017 season the Saints won 11 games, won their division, and finished 2nd in total offense/4th in scoring offense. 

With Carr last season we won 7 games, missed the playoffs, 11th in total offense/24th in scoring offense. It gets even worse when you take into account that we didn't beat a single team last year that finished the season with a winning record. Over the last three seasons we're 3-22 vs teams that have finished the season above .500. 

Just so I am clear on your logic, you're saying that wins and losses are not based on the team but solely on the QB.  Super Bowl wins are also all on the QB. 

If your logic is correct than you would have to admit that Trent Dilfer, Jeff Hostetler, Brad Johnson and Doug Williams are better QB's than Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.  

I also like that you think you have a better grasp on QB talent than Gruden and Mayock.  They both clearly back Carr and are building the team around him.  They realize exactly why this team has been trash as they have blown up the roster since they arrived because the roster has been a dumpster fire for 20 years.  I posted an article a few weeks ago stating that the Raiders had the worst D of the last decade but somehow you want to blame losses on Carr.  Your logic is so flawed it's ridiculous.  

I am not saying that Carr's job is 100 percent locked in for the next 5 years either.  He has to preform and show growth with the new influx of talent, which I think he is more than capable than doing.  If he regresses and plays horribly I would be more than in favor of making a move but as it currently stands, Carr has not been the issue with our losses, football is a team game and understanding that is one of the most basic/ fundamental understanding of the game .  If you can't see that you need to go back to football 101....

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Just so I am clear on your logic, you're saying that wins and losses are not based on the team but solely on the QB.  Super Bowl wins are also all on the QB. 

If your logic is correct than you would have to admit that Trent Dilfer, Jeff Hostetler, Brad Johnson and Doug Williams are better QB's than Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.  

Incorrect but great way to cherry pick my argument as most Carr fans do with his personal statistics to try and prove that he's a good NFL quarterback. High end quarterback play and winning football games should come hand in hand. Dilfer, Hostetler, Johnson, and Williams were all journeymen quarterbacks who were in the right place at the right time and got carried to Super Bowls by elite defenses. None of those guys were able to consistently produce at a high level while leading their team to a winning record like Marino or Kelly did. 

Aaron Rodgers - Winning record in 8/10 seasons that he has played 15+ games

Russell Wilson - Winning record in 8/8 seasons in the NFL 

Drew Brees - Winning record in 8/14 seasons in New Orleans (never won less than 7 games in any of those seasons)

Tom Brady - Winning record 18/18 seasons that he played 10+ games 

Andrew Luck - Winning record 5/5 seasons that he played 15+ games 

Deshaun Watson - Winning record 2/2 seasons that he played 15+ games

Dak Prescott - Winning record 3/4 seasons (never won less than 8 games)

Ben Roethlisberger - Winning record 13/15 seasons he played 10+ games (never won less than 7 games in any of those seasons) 

Lamar Jackson - 19-3 record as a starter with back to back playoff berths 

Patrick Mahomes - 24-8 record as a starter with a Super Bowl and back to back AFC championship game apperances 

Carson Wentz - Winning record 3/4 seasons (never won less than 7 games)

Kirk Cousins - Winning record 4/5 seasons

Jared Goff - Winning record in 3/3 seasons he has played 15+ games

Matt Ryan - Winning record in 7/12 seasons (3 other seasons with 7+ wins)

1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

I also like that you think you have a better grasp on QB talent than Gruden and Mayock.  They both clearly back Carr and are building the team around him.  They realize exactly why this team has been trash as they have blown up the roster since they arrived because the roster has been a dumpster fire for 20 years.  I posted an article a few weeks ago stating that the Raiders had the worst D of the last decade but somehow you want to blame losses on Carr.  Your logic is so flawed it's ridiculous.  

I am not saying that Carr's job is 100 percent locked in for the next 5 years either.  He has to preform and show growth with the new influx of talent, which I think he is more than capable than doing.  If he regresses and plays horribly I would be more than in favor of making a move but as it currently stands, Carr has not been the issue with our losses, football is a team game and understanding that is one of the most basic/ fundamental understanding of the game .  If you can't see that you need to go back to football 101....

Realistically who were we going to sign that was an upgrade over Carr at quarterback? It was well known that we were interested in Tom Brady in free agency but we just didn't want to give him that monster contract at his age. We definitely did an excellent job of putting pieces around Carr to allow him to be successful but I wouldn't say that we're building around him, it's a make or break year for him. We needed to add talent to the offense going forward whether Carr is the QB here or not. And if we had 100% faith that Carr was the guy we wouldn't have made Mariota the highest paid backup in the league or given him such an incentive heavy deal. 

I'm not saying that our losses are entirely on Carr. But as I highlighted above the upper level quarterbacks in the league consistently produce at a high level which translates to their teams winning a lot of football games. 

2019 (7-9): 11th in yards per game/24th in scoring offense

2018 (4-12): 23rd in yards per game/28th in scoring offense

2017 (6-10): 17th in yards per game/23rd in scoring offense

2016 (12-4): 6th in yards per game/7th in scoring offense 

2015 (7-9): 24th in yards per game/17th in scoring offense

2014 (3-13): 32nd in yards per game/31st in scoring offense 

So in 6 years with Carr we've ranked in the top half of the league in yards 2/6 years, the top half of the league in scoring offense 1/6 years, and have had a winning record in 1/6 years. That's terrible. Our fanbase has just been so starved of good quarterback play here that we're scared to let go of even average to below average play because Carr flashed in 1 season for us. I think it was the right move to stick with Carr because there wasn't a clear upgrade in free agency especially with the odd off-season format due to Covid-19. But the proof is in the pudding that Carr is a middle of the pack quarterback and not much more than that. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by NYRaider

[NYRaider]

@Frankie2Gunz in my previous post I listed the records for 14 QB's that have been considered upper tier players. Between those 14 guys they've had winning records in 86/104 seasons (82%), won 7 or 8 games in 14/104 seasons (15%), and only won less than 7 games in 4/104 seasons (3%). And those 4 seasons of less than 7 wins can be contributed to two QB's on the list Rodgers (twice) and Ryan (twice) the other 12 guys have won 7+ games in 82/82 seasons. 

Derek Carr alone has won less than 7 games 3 times in 6 seasons, so only one shy of those 14 guys 104 combined seasons, lol. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by NYRaider

[Frankie2Gunz]

17 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Incorrect but great way to cherry pick my argument as most Carr fans do with his personal statistics to try and prove that he's a good NFL quarterback. High end quarterback play and winning football games should come hand in hand. Dilfer, Hostetler, Johnson, and Williams were all journeymen quarterbacks who were in the right place at the right time and got carried to Super Bowls by elite defenses. None of those guys were able to consistently produce at a high level while leading their team to a winning record like Marino or Kelly did. 

Aaron Rodgers - Winning record in 8/10 seasons that he has played 15+ games

Russell Wilson - Winning record in 8/8 seasons in the NFL 

Drew Brees - Winning record in 8/14 seasons in New Orleans (never won less than 7 games in any of those seasons)

Tom Brady - Winning record 18/18 seasons that he played 10+ games 

Andrew Luck - Winning record 5/5 seasons that he played 15+ games 

Deshaun Watson - Winning record 2/2 seasons that he played 15+ games

Dak Prescott - Winning record 3/4 seasons (never won less than 8 games)

Ben Roethlisberger - Winning record 13/15 seasons he played 10+ games (never won less than 7 games in any of those seasons) 

Lamar Jackson - 19-3 record as a starter with back to back playoff berths 

Patrick Mahomes - 24-8 record as a starter with a Super Bowl and back to back AFC championship game apperances 

Carson Wentz - Winning record 3/4 seasons (never won less than 7 games)

Kirk Cousins - Winning record 4/5 seasons

Jared Goff - Winning record in 3/3 seasons he has played 15+ games

Matt Ryan - Winning record in 7/12 seasons (3 other seasons with 7+ wins)

Realistically who were we going to sign that was an upgrade over Carr at quarterback? It was well known that we were interested in Tom Brady in free agency but we just didn't want to give him that monster contract at his age. We definitely did an excellent job of putting pieces around Carr to allow him to be successful but I wouldn't say that we're building around him, it's a make or break year for him. We needed to add talent to the offense going forward whether Carr is the QB here or not. And if we had 100% faith that Carr was the guy we wouldn't have made Mariota the highest paid backup in the league or given him such an incentive heavy deal. 

I'm not saying that our losses are entirely on Carr. But as I highlighted above the upper level quarterbacks in the league consistently produce at a high level which translates to their teams winning a lot of football games. 

2019 (7-9): 11th in yards per game/24th in scoring offense

2018 (4-12): 23rd in yards per game/28th in scoring offense

2017 (6-10): 17th in yards per game/23rd in scoring offense

2016 (12-4): 6th in yards per game/7th in scoring offense 

2015 (7-9): 24th in yards per game/17th in scoring offense

2014 (3-13): 32nd in yards per game/31st in scoring offense 

So in 6 years with Carr we've ranked in the top half of the league in yards 2/6 years, the top half of the league in scoring offense 1/6 years, and have had a winning record in 1/6 years. That's terrible. Our fanbase has just been so starved of good quarterback play here that we're scared to let go of even average to below average play because Carr flashed in 1 season for us. I think it was the right move to stick with Carr because there wasn't a clear upgrade in free agency especially with the odd off-season format due to Covid-19. But the proof is in the pudding that Carr is a middle of the pack quarterback and not much more than that. 

Where would you rank our roster over that 6 year span?  Do you think surrounding talent has anything to do with wins and losses?  Linking wins and losses solely to a QB is about as low brow of an opinion as one can have...

Like I said an unbiased ESPN article listed the Raiders as having the worst D of the decade. What do you have to say about this?  Is this Carr's fault lol

https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/18/espn-names-raiders-as-worst-defense-of-decade/https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/18/espn-names-raiders-as-worst-defense-of-decade/

[NYRaider]

Just now, Frankie2Gunz said:

Where would you rank our roster over that 6 year span?  Do you think surrounding talent has anything to do with wins and losses?  Linking wins and losses solely to a QB is about as low brow of an opinion as one can have...

Like I said an unbiased ESPN article listed the Raiders as having the worst D of the decade. What do you have to say about this?  Is this Carr's fault lol

https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/18/espn-names-raiders-as-worst-defense-of-decade/https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/18/espn-names-raiders-as-worst-defense-of-decade/

High end quarterback play is directly correlated to wins/losses. As I said in my previous post in a combined 104 seasons between those 14 quarterbacks they've won less than 7 games 4 times. If you remove Rodgers and Ryan, between Wilson, Brees, Brady, Rothlesberger, Luck, Watson, Prescott, Jackson, Mahomes, Went, Cousins, and Goff they've never won less than 7 games in 82 combined seasons. Carr has won less than 7 games in 3/6...

[Frankie2Gunz]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

High end quarterback play is directly correlated to wins/losses. As I said in my previous post in a combined 104 seasons between those 14 quarterbacks they've won less than 7 games 4 times. If you remove Rodgers and Ryan, between Wilson, Brees, Brady, Rothlesberger, Luck, Watson, Prescott, Jackson, Mahomes, Went, Cousins, and Goff they've never won less than 7 games in 82 combined seasons. Carr has won less than 7 games in 3/6...

It's not rocket science but you clearly lack a very basic understanding about football.  That is clear as day!

Having terrible surrounding talent is paramount to wins and losses and the Raiders have been a dumpster fire for 20 years.  They clearly have had the worst D for the last decade as the article points put but once again you have not answered my question.  Where would you rank out O ver the last decade based on talent?  Name some of the studs that we have had during the last decade that would rank us not at the bottom of that list too LOL 

[NYRaider]

10 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

It's not rocket science but you clearly lack a very basic understanding about football.  That is clear as day!

Having terrible surrounding talent is paramount to wins and losses and the Raiders have been a dumpster fire for 20 years.  They clearly have had the worst D for the last decade as the article points put but once again you have not answered my question.  Where would you rank out O ver the last decade based on talent?  Name some of the studs that we have had during the last decade that would rank us not at the bottom of that list too LOL 

The statistics prove it, upper tier quarterbacks consistently lead their teams to winning records and at the very least to a borderline .500 level. 

The Eagles had a worse offensive line, running game, and weapons in the passing game with a slightly better defense and won 9 games last season.

The Seahawks had a worse offensive line, running game, and comparable weapons in the passing game with a worse defense and won 11 games last season. 

The Titans had a worse offensive line, slightly better running game, and comparable weapons in the passing game with a worse defense and won 9 games last season.

The Texans had a worse offensive line, worse running game, and comparable weapons in the passing game with a worse defense and won 9 games last season. 

Carr fans will look for any and every excuse they can find to justify his poor play/our poor play as a team. Good quarterbacks elevate their teams/offenses, Carr doesn't do that for us. The fact that Wilson, Brees, Brady, Luck, Watson, Prescott, Big Ben, Jackson, Mahomes, Wentz, Cousins, and Goff have never won less than 7 games in 82 seasons combined while Carr has done it 3 times in 6 years is telling. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

10 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The statistics prove it, upper tier quarterbacks consistently lead their teams to winning records and at the very least to a borderline .500 level. 

The Eagles had a worse offensive line, running game, and weapons in the passing game with a slightly better defense and won 9 games last season.

The Seahawks had a worse offensive line, running game, and comparable weapons in the passing game with a worse defense and won 11 games last season. 

The Titans had a worse offensive line, slightly better running game, and comparable weapons in the passing game with a worse defense and won 9 games last season.

The Texans had a worse offensive line, worse running game, and comparable weapons in the passing game with a worse defense and won 9 games last season. 

Carr fans will look for any and every excuse they can find to justify his poor play/our poor play as a team. Good quarterbacks elevate their teams/offenses, Carr doesn't do that for us. The fact that Wilson, Brees, Brady, Luck, Watson, Prescott, Big Ben, Jackson, Mahomes, Wentz, Cousins, and Goff have never won less than 7 games in 82 seasons combined while Carr has done it 3 times in 6 years is telling. 

Lol that nonsense you spew is completely subjective and your opinion. 

You lost me at Seahawks have comparable weapons in the passing game.  You must be kidding me right.  #clueless 

Titans with a slightly better run game?  Did you not watch Henry completely carry the Titans throughout the end of the season and during their playoff run?  

I don't even want to begin to touch the other subjective nonsense you've been spewing.

Once again where would you rank the Raider's O over the last decade?

[NYRaider]

6 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Lol that nonsense you spew is completely subjective and your opinion. 

You lost me at Seahawks have comparable weapons in the passing game.  You must be kidding me right.  #clueless 

Titans with a slightly better run game?  Did you not watch Henry completely carry the Titans throughout the end of the season and during their playoff run?  

I don't even want to begin to touch the other subjective nonsense you've been spewing.

Once again where would you rank the Raider's O over the last decade?

The Seahawks had Lockett and Metcalf but basically nothing else after those two. And you can make a case that Waller was a better option in the passing game than either of those guys last year. Williams/Waller combined for 1,800 yards receiving and Metcalf/Lockett combined for 1,950 yards receiving, it's a 150 yard difference, how is that not comparable? Their third leading receiver had like 300 yards and ours had over 600.

Henry was first in the league with 103 yards per game rushing and Jacobs was third in the league with 89 yards per game. So again, better but not by a huge margin at all. Not to mention their offensive line gave up 56 sacks while ours gave up 29 and their defense ranked 21st while ours ranked 19th. Their top 3 receivers combined for 2,200 yards and 13 TD while our top 3 receivers combined for 2,400 yards and 13 TD. 

[drfrey13]

2 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Lol that nonsense you spew is completely subjective and your opinion. 

You lost me at Seahawks have comparable weapons in the passing game.  You must be kidding me right.  #clueless 

Titans with a slightly better run game?  Did you not watch Henry completely carry the Titans throughout the end of the season and during their playoff run?  

I don't even want to begin to touch the other subjective nonsense you've been spewing.

Once again where would you rank the Raider's O over the last decade?

This actually helps @NYRaider's argument.  "We've won 39 games with Carr at QB and won 34 games in the previous 6 seasons before he got here with 10 different QB's starting games for us during that stretch."  We have had horrible offensive peices for over a decade and Carr has probably had better weapons then the 10 QBs who started the previous 6 years before he got here yet he has averaged less than 1 win per season more than the 10 QBs before him.  If you remove the 1 amazing season our team had, which I do not have to do to make the point, it is really bad.  

[drfrey13]

3 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The Seahawks had Lockett and Metcalf but basically nothing else after those two. And you can make a case that Waller was a better option in the passing game than either of those guys last year. Williams/Waller combined for 1,800 yards receiving and Metcalf/Lockett combined for 1,950 yards receiving, it's a 150 yard difference, how is that not comparable? Their third leading receiver had like 300 yards and ours had over 600.

Henry was first in the league with 103 yards per game rushing and Jacobs was third in the league with 89 yards per game. So again, better but not by a huge margin at all. Not to mention their offensive line gave up 56 sacks while ours gave up 29 and their defense ranked 21st while ours ranked 19th. Their top 3 receivers combined for 2,200 yards and 13 TD while our top 3 receivers combined for 2,400 yards and 13 TD. 

I can not argue the the Seahawks comp and it is easy to see that Wilson is light years better than Carr.  Tannehill did out play Carr by a big margin but the stats for Henry are a little misleading and helped the QB play.  Henry ran for almost 150 yards per game and 10 TDs the last six games and took over.  The one average game he had they lost by a field goal.  When the RB averages 6-8 yards a carry and has 20+ touches it is kind of hard to lose.  Henry was the reason for 5 of their 9 wins.  Although I believe Henry is better I really like how our O runs with a healthy Jacobs.  This leads me back to Carr being an average QB that needs good play around him and does not elevate players like a WIlson.  I still think Carr is a lesser version of Alex Smith until he proves he is a better version of Alex Smith but at the end of the day he is still Alex Smith.

Edited July 7, 2020 by drfrey13