Draft: Things We Learned

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

As far as I know, guys like Neville Gallimore, KJ Hill, and James Proche had no real off-field knocks against them aside from age and all three went later than expected. 

I'd say they fell more for other reasons beyond age, though that certainly didn't help.

Proche is undersized, tested average athletically (he didn't run the 40 either), and played at a small school. That's enough to push you into the fringe of the class, no matter how productive you are or how great you look on tape. 

Gallimore is another guy who didn't test great (though not as bad as Proche) and is undersized. He was hyped coming into this class as a freaky athlete but still managed underwhelming jump and 3-cone times (though he shows pretty well on tape athletically). Gallimore's problem was thoroughly underwhelming production and he didn't flash as well as he should have on tape. He's got some upside but didn't really produce, that's a third rounder all day.

KJ Hill, same story as Proche. Undersized, didn't test well. The NFL is going to frown upon that every time. 

[SaveOurSonics]

1 minute ago, SmittyBacall said:

I'd say they fell more for other reasons beyond age, though that certainly didn't help.

Proche is undersized, tested average athletically (he didn't run the 40 either), and played at a small school. That's enough to push you into the fringe of the class, no matter how productive you are or how great you look on tape. 

Gallimore is another guy who didn't test great (though not as bad as Proche) and is undersized. He was hyped coming into this class as a freaky athlete but still managed underwhelming jump and 3-cone times (though he shows pretty well on tape athletically). Gallimore's problem was thoroughly underwhelming production and he didn't flash as well as he should have on tape. He's got some upside but didn't really produce, that's a third rounder all day.

KJ Hill, same story as Proche. Undersized, didn't test well. The NFL is going to frown upon that every time. 

Couldn't agree more on Proche and Hill. Personally had both as 6th-7th rounders as slot-only, undersized, underwhelming-athleticism prospects. 

[CWood21]

On 4/26/2020 at 6:20 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

1. Age matters
- Of the 32 picks in the 1st round, only 3 5th-year Seniors were selected -- and one of those was bonafide stud QB Joe Burrow. The other two were CB Damon Arnette (surprise 1st rounder) and Jeff Gladney (barely at the tail-end). The 2nd round featured S Kyle Dugger, G/T Robert Hunt, DE Darrell Taylor, and WR Van Jefferson. So within the first 64 picks, a total of 7 5th-year Seniors. 

This isn't to imply that these guys slipped due to age alone, but popular prospects like Josh Jones, Jabari Zuniga, Zach Baun, Neville Gallimore, Prince Tega Wanogho, Jonathan Greenard, K.J. Hill, James Proche, Trey Adams, Raequan Williams, Robert Windsor, and Akeem Davis-Gaither slipped further than their pre-draft projections.

I'd disagree with this one.  Most of the impact players come out early.  How many projected FRPs end up sticking around for their senior year?  The majority go early.  Most players who are talented aren't going to stay around for 5 years.

[Ozzy]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I'd say they fell more for other reasons beyond age, though that certainly didn't help.

Proche is undersized, tested average athletically (he didn't run the 40 either), and played at a small school. That's enough to push you into the fringe of the class, no matter how productive you are or how great you look on tape. 

Gallimore is another guy who didn't test great (though not as bad as Proche) and is undersized. He was hyped coming into this class as a freaky athlete but still managed underwhelming jump and 3-cone times (though he shows pretty well on tape athletically). Gallimore's problem was thoroughly underwhelming production and he didn't flash as well as he should have on tape. He's got some upside but didn't really produce, that's a third rounder all day.

KJ Hill, same story as Proche. Undersized, didn't test well. The NFL is going to frown upon that every time. 

Could say Gallimore had a motor that ran hot at cold at times sure, but in big games he made an impact especially this past year.  And undersized?  Gallimore?  How is he undersized?  PS he gave outstanding effort at the combine I thought for a big guy, competed hard as hell out there in the drills.  And since when is running a 4.79 40 at 304 pounds a bad thing?  That time was flat out amazing for him I thought, would not be surprised at all if he is a fine players on Dallas and will probably be better than Maliek Collins was who they lost.

 

 

 

Things learned:

 

*Clearly if you have a track background, recent success and are someone new to football you will be drafted highly just on assumed potential and track background.

 

*Being a great player early in your career apparently does not matter if you have a recent injury, especially on the OL Tyler Biadasz and Trey Adams.  

 

*Smaller RBs who are fast got over drafted a lot I found, Darrynton Evans, Jason Huntley and Raymond Calais.  Quick scat backs who have fine open field speed seemed to be picked higher than more accomplished running backs, two getting picked over Eno was crazy to me.  Too bad for the likes of Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey they were not around in the NFL of today, because both those guys flamed out in the NFL and are very similar to some of the smaller backs drafted, if anything those two are faster than some of these guys.  

 

*Recent success matters a ton, biggest example Noah Igbinoghene, played the best game of arguably his career that last game in college, the bowl game.  Oh and the entire LSU roster minus Randy's boy who was hurt with not combine/pro day workout.  

 

*40 times matter a ton for edge players to get picked highly, example AJ Epenesa, James Lynch, Kenny Willekes, Jonathan Greenard Bradlee Anae, Jonathan Garvin etc.  Would not be surprised to see all those guys have some level of success in the league, especially the hype competitive ones of the bunch.  

 

[Kip Smithers]

I learned that we are seeing an continued increase of Nigerians in the league. We saw two in first round.  Kinda thought Okudah was Nigerian, so nice to see it confirmed. And the Dolphins drafted one too at end of first. Nice to see our increasing prominence in the NFL (and NBA too).

[SmittyBacall]

54 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Could say Gallimore had a motor that ran hot at cold at times sure, but in big games he made an impact especially this past year.

For someone of his ability I expected more. 

54 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

And undersized?  Gallimore?  How is he undersized?

You're right. Looking now he's bigger than I thought.

55 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

PS he gave outstanding effort at the combine I thought for a big guy, competed hard as hell out there in the drills.

Everyone gives outstanding effort at the combine.

55 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

And since when is running a 4.79 40 at 304 pounds a bad thing?

It's not. It's a great thing, which is why I didn't mention it when commenting on his jump and 3-cone. 

57 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

*40 times matter a ton for edge players to get picked highly, example AJ Epenesa, James Lynch, Kenny Willekes, Jonathan Greenard Bradlee Anae, Jonathan Garvin etc.  Would not be surprised to see all those guys have some level of success in the league, especially the hype competitive ones of the bunch.  

I noticed this too. Good mention.

[Calvert28]

3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I'd say they fell more for other reasons beyond age, though that certainly didn't help.

Proche is undersized, tested average athletically (he didn't run the 40 either), and played at a small school. That's enough to push you into the fringe of the class, no matter how productive you are or how great you look on tape. 

Gallimore is another guy who didn't test great (though not as bad as Proche) and is undersized. He was hyped coming into this class as a freaky athlete but still managed underwhelming jump and 3-cone times (though he shows pretty well on tape athletically). Gallimore's problem was thoroughly underwhelming production and he didn't flash as well as he should have on tape. He's got some upside but didn't really produce, that's a third rounder all day.

KJ Hill, same story as Proche. Undersized, didn't test well. The NFL is going to frown upon that every time. 

Not sure how this couldn't be applied to Brown as well and he went Top 10. Aside from prototypical size he didn't wow in the stats department or bombed his combine.

Nothing that i've seen from Gallimore suggests his upside is limited, he has shown a variety of pass rushing in moves and when he manages to time his count he bursts out of his stance as fast as anyone i've seen not named Donald. Honestly I'm not sure why he fell, but if combine and stats weren't applied to Brown, then im not sure why they would have been applied to Gallimore who still made up for his 3-cone with an insane 40 time although I know that doesn't mean much for a DL. 

[SmittyBacall]

9 hours ago, Calvert28 said:

Not sure how this couldn't be applied to Brown as well and he went Top 10. Aside from prototypical size he didn't wow in the stats department or bombed his combine.

Nothing that i've seen from Gallimore suggests his upside is limited, he has shown a variety of pass rushing in moves and when he manages to time his count he bursts out of his stance as fast as anyone i've seen not named Donald. Honestly I'm not sure why he fell, but if combine and stats weren't applied to Brown, then im not sure why they would have been applied to Gallimore who still made up for his 3-cone with an insane 40 time although I know that doesn't mean much for a DL. 

Gallimore’s tape wasn’t even close to as dominant as Brown’s. It’s not the same thing at all. Incomparable. 

And I never said Gallimore was limited. I said he didn’t test as well as well as most people thought he would.

To be honest I’m not sure why he fell so far either. I’m just pointing out what could be the reasons.

[MikeT14]

While I already knew this, maybe some didn't. The Wonderlic results really have no bearing. 

[SaveOurSonics]

16 hours ago, Ozzy said:

*Smaller RBs who are fast got over drafted a lot I found, Darrynton Evans, Jason Huntley and Raymond Calais.  Quick scat backs who have fine open field speed seemed to be picked higher than more accomplished running backs, two getting picked over Eno was crazy to me.  Too bad for the likes of Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey they were not around in the NFL of today, because both those guys flamed out in the NFL and are very similar to some of the smaller backs drafted, if anything those two are faster than some of these guys.  

Good contribution all around. As for this one, it makes sense. It's about what skills translate at the next level. Eno is an undersized back who lacks any top-end speed in the open field. How often do you see those guys win at the next level? He's essentially the Kenny Willekes of the RB class, whereas guys like Evans/Huntley/Calais have translatable speed that can weaponized on passing downs. 

I think that's the same reason we didn't see "speed backs" like Darius Anderson, Salvon Ahmed, and JaMycal Hasty get drafted because they underwhelmed in the speed drills at the Combine. 

[Ozzy]

On 4/29/2020 at 11:17 AM, SaveOurSonics said:

Good contribution all around. As for this one, it makes sense. It's about what skills translate at the next level. Eno is an undersized back who lacks any top-end speed in the open field. How often do you see those guys win at the next level? He's essentially the Kenny Willekes of the RB class, whereas guys like Evans/Huntley/Calais have translatable speed that can weaponized on passing downs. 

I think that's the same reason we didn't see "speed backs" like Darius Anderson, Salvon Ahmed, and JaMycal Hasty get drafted because they underwhelmed in the speed drills at the Combine. 

Put any of those backs against Eno in a phone booth, Eno will win every time.  Have you seen him run, he has moves Evans/Huntley and Calais do not have.  Same with Ahmed, Hasty and Anderson.  Eno has quickness side to side that is rare and really knows how to make defenders miss him in the open field.  Arguably Eno has some of the best feet of any RB in the draft and I would be surprised if those little fast guys end up better than him in the NFL.  Yes as third down backs they are interested, and Huntley love the pop he runs with but has not had a great career really outside of a decent season this past year.  Calais was on a team that had two NFL draft picks on the OL against not amazing competition so I am sure that helps, and Evans at least was good two years but again against not amazing competition.  

Maybe it is just I think Eno should not have fell that far, he was behind a horrible OL this year for ASU and was still good.  Not to mention a FR QB who had some growing pains as well.  Will be interesting to see how those backs do, still feel they were all over drafted.  Also not like Eno ran some awful 40 or is some awful athlete or something.  Anderson I feel had ability to be drafted but a poor senior, did have a good Senior bowl though, Ahmed I like and I would take over Calais and Huntley no doubt about it, PS Ahmed is faster than what he ran at the combine.   And Hasty not a huge surprised he was undrafted, tough back but not enough consistency with him possibly, with his toughness and ability to break tackles though, would not be surprised to see him do ok if he gets a chance.  

 

 

[SaveOurSonics]

11 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Put any of those backs against Eno in a phone booth, Eno will win every time.  Have you seen him run, he has moves Evans/Huntley and Calais do not have.  Same with Ahmed, Hasty and Anderson.  Eno has quickness side to side that is rare and really knows how to make defenders miss him in the open field.  Arguably Eno has some of the best feet of any RB in the draft and I would be surprised if those little fast guys end up better than him in the NFL.  Yes as third down backs they are interested, and Huntley love the pop he runs with but has not had a great career really outside of a decent season this past year.  Calais was on a team that had two NFL draft picks on the OL against not amazing competition so I am sure that helps, and Evans at least was good two years but again against not amazing competition.  

Maybe it is just I think Eno should not have fell that far, he was behind a horrible OL this year for ASU and was still good.  Not to mention a FR QB who had some growing pains as well.  Will be interesting to see how those backs do, still feel they were all over drafted.  Also not like Eno ran some awful 40 or is some awful athlete or something.  Anderson I feel had ability to be drafted but a poor senior, did have a good Senior bowl though, Ahmed I like and I would take over Calais and Huntley no doubt about it, PS Ahmed is faster than what he ran at the combine.   And Hasty not a huge surprised he was undrafted, tough back but not enough consistency with him possibly, with his toughness and ability to break tackles though, would not be surprised to see him do ok if he gets a chance.  

I've watched a lot of Eno. I'm a Pac12 guy myself and watched somewhere between 6-7 full games of his post-season. 

He possesses great lateral agility and balance and that's why he was drafted at all. You wanna know who else had great lateral agility and balance and made a lot of guys miss in college? Paul Perkins. 

Also familiar with Salvon's speed. Darius Anderson is similarly fast on the field. The point of this thread is to recognize trends, and one of the trends I recognized is that guys who were labeled as "speed backs" in college and did not translate that speed to the 40-yard dash did not get drafted. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by SaveOurSonics

[Ozzy]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I've watched a lot of Eno. I'm a Pac12 guy myself and watched somewhere between 6-7 full games of his post-season. 

He possesses great lateral agility and balance and that's why he was drafted at all. You wanna know who else had great lateral agility and balance and made a lot of guys miss in college? Paul Perkins. 

Also familiar with Salvon's speed. Darius Anderson is similarly fast on the field. The point of this thread is to recognize trends, and one of the trends I recognized is that guys who were labeled as "speed backs" in college and did not translate that speed to the 40-yard dash did not get drafted. 

Paul Perkins, no thanks.  I disliked him coming out of UCLA and thought he was also way over drafted for his skill set.  Had a good college career and is a good explosive athlete but does not have feet as good as Eno and cannot cut as well as he does either.   Eno's side to side is outstanding and arguably has much better vision and ability to make defenders miss tackles.  Perkins was very straight line as a runner.    

 

Over the past 5 years the top 40 times for RBs at the combine.  Clearly got the stud big backs with speed in Barkley and Taylor recently but overall the list is pretty weak.  Hill would be another who got a little over drafted because of that 40 time, good back sure but not sure he is that elite.  Cohen is one people want to try and get, a back like him but even last year I thought he underachieved and not sure he could ever be a feature back on a team.  

Keith Marshall 4.31
TJ Logan 4.37
Nyheim Hines 4.38
Jonathan Taylor 4.39
Saquon Barkley 4.40
Justice Hill 4.40
Tyler Ervin 4.41
Darrynton Evans 4.41
Joe Williams 4.41
Raymond Calais 4.42
Tarik Cohen 4.42
Jeremy Langford 4.42
Anthony McFarland 4.44
Ryquell Armstead 4.45
Kenyan Drake 4.45

 

 

 

If you expand to the last 10 years it looks like this.  Chris Johnson had his day for sure but again the rest, so so.  

Chris Johnson 4.24
Dri Archer 4.26
Keith Marshall 4.31
Onterio McCalebb 4.34
Darel Scott 4.34
Jahvid Best 4.35
Knile Davis 4.37
TJ Logan 4.37
CJ Spiller 4.37
Mario Fannin 4.38
Nyheim Hines 4.38
Jonathan Taylor 4.39
Saquon Barkley 4.40
Justice Hill 4.40
Derek Locke 4.40
Lamar Miller 4.40

 

So clearly speed is not everything with a RB, thus me saying it was a little over valued in this draft.  I do agree though, 40 time is important and is why those guys were drafted highly.  But take away Evan's and Calais's time and they do not get picked that high, simple as that I think.  

 

[onejayhawk]

The Super Bowl matched two fast RBs, one who did not get a Combine invite. Just sayin'. Damien Williams was 4.45 at the Combine while Raheem Mostert is estimated at 4.35. 

J

Edited May 1, 2020 by onejayhawk

[onejayhawk]

Double post

J

Edited May 1, 2020 by onejayhawk