Can a Case be made for Keenum...?

[Cearbhall]

7 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

The efficiency that Keenum is playing with is beyond impressive, and I really like that he’s cleaned up his dangerous throws that he was getting away with. But I still feel as though he’s leaving a lot of big plays, and potential touchdowns on the field. At least one, if not two, per week. 

And I can’t help but think that if he misses those opportunities in the playoffs, it’s really going to cost us. 

Hes been improving almost weekly and working out some of his mistakes, I’m just hoping that he starts seeing these plays in the coming weeks. I hate leaving points on the field. 

As I watched the Sunday night game yesterday and saw both Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz miss wide open receivers and throw passes that prevented WRs that had broken free from scoring TDs on the play I thought of you, @SemperFeist. I thought of how you would hate having those QBs leading the team. Really, I don't think you would be happy with any QB.

Nitpicking a QB for making occasional mistakes is borderline ridiculous IMO. Case Keenum has been playing at such a high level. Do you know how many times I would have given my left nut to have a QB as good as Case Keenum on the team? Let me put it this way, it would be easier to talk about the times that I wouldn't have given my left nut.

As far as how much Keenum will get paid in the offseason, I believe you will be very surprised. Glennon's contract will be the floor and what Keenum ultimately gets will be a fair bit more than that.

 

 

[vike daddy]

left nuts are important to keep.

[Cearbhall]

7 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

left nuts are important to keep.

Right. So are good QBs.

[Dolmonite26]

18 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Right. So are good QBs.

Look at QBs who have played under Shummer and then look at what happened after he wasn't coaching them.

Then for more fun, look at Keenum's career numbers leading all the way up to this year's bye...yeah no, no he's definitely a good QB long term...totes

[SemperFeist]

44 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

As I watched the Sunday night game yesterday and saw both Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz miss wide open receivers and throw passes that prevented WRs that had broken free from scoring TDs on the play I thought of you,

When did Russell or Wentz fail to recognize broken coverages? Did they throw a few inaccurate passes? Yes, but that’s a different criticism, and they at least showed recognition and awareness of the open player. Keenum isn’t seeing these broken and busted coverages. And for a team that’s only getting a few scoring opportunities a game, failing to capitalize on those opportunities is only magnified. 

I never said that I wasn’t happy with Keenum, but criticism in this area is warranted.

[Klomp]

4 hours ago, vikingsrule said:

Keenum very well could be the top FA QB. He's playing better than Alex Smith. Who are the other FA QBs not named Cousins.

Schefter says Drew Brees is a possibility to be a free agent. Eli could be out there, depending on who NYG hires. Jimmy G is a possibility, though most expect him to stay in SF. Plus there's an entire draft class of QBs teams will look at.

Keenum has had a good season. But if a team doesn't believe in him as a franchise guy, he's just a stopgap. And there will likely be cheaper stopgaps out there if people think $15 million is Keenum's floor.

[NorthCountryEvo]

At the end of the day, some GM's will make prudent decisions and some will reach out of desperation. Most GM's would probably say that they have their doubts about Case being a long term option simply based on his play prior to this year, but that won't prevent some desperate GM's from offering him a big contract in the hopes that he can continue with this year's magic. It's going to happen, and in a QB driven league, the bidding war will only drive up the price. Yes, other QB's could be out there like Eli, Brees, Tyrod, etc and yes teams will draft QB's in the 1st, but Keenum's level of performance this year is easily going to net him an average to above average starters salary for at least one year. Case knows this and his agent knows this. At his age, and with his past, this is his one chance at a big payday and it would be fiscally irresponsible to not make this money grab. With all of this in mind, if the Vikes want to retain Keenum, we are going to have to offer a fair and competitive price. The only possibility of a discount would be if he feels that he could not only continue his success but also get a very good contract here. 

 

Going forward into the offseason, I think we have 3 realistic options:

A- We retain Keenum on a possibly inflated contract which has options to get out after 1-2 years and also retain Teddy to allow for an open competition next year. This is a reasonable way to decipher which of the two should be a long term option while also providing more safety at the position at the expense of possibly losing 1-2 key members from elsewhere on the team due to not having enough money to offer unless Bryz works more magic.

B- We retain Keenum on a possibly inflated contract with the hopes that he has at least 1-2 more years of play at the same level of this season and we let Teddy walk because he is somewhat more of an unknown after the injury. This would immediately vault QB to the top of the list of team needs in the draft, and hopefully we hit on someone who can develop and replace Keenum in 1-2 years. This is riskier in knowing if Keenum will continue to be as good as he is now or if we will find a suitable replacement in the draft, but financially, we should be able to retain all key members of the team.

C- We allow Keenum to hit the market and save quite a bit of cap space while retaining Teddy on what could be expected to be a discount contract because of his time away from the game and injury concern. We also may invest a high draft pick in a QB, but this is probably more dependent on the front office's comfort in Teddy. In this scenario, there is still some risk in the QB group, though it could be seen as less risky than going with Keenum and a rookie because Teddy was improving and the team will have a better feel for his ability to progress, albeit his knee will always be a concern. This option should still give us enough financial flexibility to retain our key members.

 

Personally, I'd hope we could somehow pull off option A and keep all of our priority FA's, so that would be my first option, and if that wasn't a possibility, then I'd prefer C because I have more faith in Teddy long term than I do in Case. Case has been admirable this year, and while I am a beleiver that he could lead us to and win the SB, I still feel like the floor could fall out at any moment. Option B just provides too much of a gamble for my liking. Of course other things could transpire. Case or Teddy could still get hurt before the end of the year, Bradford could be brought back, or any other number of permutations could occur, but I think these are the three likeliest scenarios.

[Klomp]

I lean towards option A as well, but I also believe it partially depends on whether or not Shurmur is around.

[CriminalMind]

Jimmy G, Brees, Cousins, Keenum .... They will all be in their same team next year.

Not some bold prediction, but based on logical history

[Cearbhall]

11 hours ago, Dolmonite26 said:

Look at QBs who have played under Shummer and then look at what happened after he wasn't coaching them.

Then for more fun, look at Keenum's career numbers leading all the way up to this year's bye...yeah no, no he's definitely a good QB long term...totes

I have looked at Keenum's career numbers. It looks pretty good in the last 4 years including this year. The three years before this year he was 9-7 as a starter on some pretty awful teams. He was the Rams best QB by a mile last year. Look at the jump Goff made after getting out of that awful system. He is looking pretty good right now. Keenum was so far ahead of him last year. 

In the last 4 years Keenum is 17-9. Three of those years he was on terrible teams. Teams that would have loved to go 9-7 in a full season, let alone a 17-9 ratio.

Teddy Bridgewater is 17-11.

Add to his nice play, the fact that he has been progressing quite a bit and things are looking very up for Case Keenum.

How many times was Sam Bradford above .500 as a starting QB. In all those years, do you think Bradford's team was always worse than the terrible teams Keenum was on? 

The most important stat for QBs is wins and losses. Looking at that,  Case Keenum is the best QB on the Vikings roster.

All that said, I wouldn't be looking to sign Keenum to a new contract right now. I would let the season play out before making that decision.

[Cearbhall]

11 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

When did Russell or Wentz fail to recognize broken coverages? Did they throw a few inaccurate passes? Yes, but that’s a different criticism, and they at least showed recognition and awareness of the open player. Keenum isn’t seeing these broken and busted coverages. And for a team that’s only getting a few scoring opportunities a game, failing to capitalize on those opportunities is only magnified. 

I never said that I wasn’t happy with Keenum, but criticism in this area is warranted.

Keenum is almost always seeing the broken and busted coverages. He misses it a few times just like any other QB. Yes, there were inaccurate passes to receivers that had broken open in the SNF game. Yes, there were times when broken coverages were not recognized in the SNF game.

[swede700]

I was thinking that Keenum' market value will likely be around $16M if he's signed to be a starter, because he's proven more than what Glennon had, but he still doesn't have enough of a track record to warrant anywhere near $20M. And apparently, spotrac agrees...

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/case-keenum-10079/market-value/

As well as he's playing, I'm still a little hesitant on giving that to him.

 

[perrynoid]

Here is a nice article focusing on the statistical arguments surrounding Case:

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2017/12/5/16723942/vikings-making-a-better-case

Some nice graphs, I like graphs lol.

[SteelKing728]

1 hour ago, Cearbhall said:

I have looked at Keenum's career numbers. It looks pretty good in the last 4 years including this year. The three years before this year he was 9-7 as a starter on some pretty awful teams. He was the Rams best QB by a mile last year. Look at the jump Goff made after getting out of that awful system. He is looking pretty good right now. Keenum was so far ahead of him last year. 

In the last 4 years Keenum is 17-9. Three of those years he was on terrible teams. Teams that would have loved to go 9-7 in a full season, let alone a 17-9 ratio.

Teddy Bridgewater is 17-11.

Add to his nice play, the fact that he has been progressing quite a bit and things are looking very up for Case Keenum.

How many times was Sam Bradford above .500 as a starting QB. In all those years, do you think Bradford's team was always worse than the terrible teams Keenum was on? 

The most important stat for QBs is wins and losses. Looking at that,  Case Keenum is the best QB on the Vikings roster.

All that said, I wouldn't be looking to sign Keenum to a new contract right now. I would let the season play out before making that decision.

QBs themselves do not win and lose games. It is not a stat for QBs. That's lazy analysis. 

They play a large role in a teams success or failure, but wins and losses go to the team, not the player.

This isn't about Keenum or Bridgewater either. I just dislike this argument.

(Other than that, you make some good points!)

[NorthCountryEvo]

For better or worse, as lazy as it is to use wins and loses as a "QB stat", many will continue to use this in arguments. With that in mind, I think it is still relevant to discuss to some extent because of just how much of a role a QB does play in the wins and losses.