RuskieTitan Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Took 10 weeks, but my cornerbacks finally forced turnovers for the first time this season hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Week 10 power rankings Egypt Starfall (8-2) - unchanged Rio de Janeiro Pirates (7-3) - unchanged Phoenix Rattlers (7-3) - unchanged Norway Knights (7-3) - unchanged Rocket City Trash Pandas (7-3) - unchanged Hanoi Viet Kong (6-4) - UP 1 Freiburg Venom (6-4) - UP 3 Chicago Fire (6-4) - DOWN 2 Miami Sharks (6-4) - UP 2 Indianapolis Predators (5-5) - DOWN 2 South Africa Woolley Mammoths (5-5) - DOWN 2 Seattle Sonics (4-5-1) - unchanged Reykjavik Direwolves (4-6) - UP 2 Tacoma Thunder (4-6) - UP 3 Scranton Papermakers (4-6) - DOWN 2 Anchorage Eskimos (4-6) - DOWN 2 Southview Saints (3-7) - DOWN 1 Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-7-1) - unchanged Iowa Jagwads (2-8) - UP 1 Little Rock Uni Royals (2-8) - DOWN 1 Might need to rethink the way these rankings are calculated. They are currently based on current wins + pythagorean expected wins for the rest of the season. So even though the Pirates have by far the highest expected wins remaining, it isn't enough to jump ahead of a team that is a game ahead of them in actual standings. So really by this late in the season it simply became a ranking by record with pythagorean w/l as a tiebreaker. Not as dynamic as I hoped. Maybe once there are fewer games remaining I will calculate the individual games remaining to predict the rest of the outcomes rather than relying on pythagorean, agnostic to matchups Playoff odds Rio de Janeiro Pirates (7-3) (proj 11.2 wins) - >99% playoff chance Norway Knights (7-3) (proj 10.6 wins) - 96% playoff chance Hanoi Viet Kong (6-4) (proj 9.5 wins) - 63% playoff chance Chicago Fire (6-4) (proj 8.9 wins) - 47% playoff chance South Africa Woolley Mammoths (5-5) (proj 8.1 wins) - 32% playoff chance Seattle Sonics (4-5-1) (proj 7.3 wins) - 21% playoff chance Reykjavik Direwolves (4-6) (proj 7.2 wins) - 19% playoff chance Tacoma Thunder (4-6) (proj 6.8 wins) - 15% playoff chance Anchorage Eskimos (4-6) (proj 5.9 wins) - 7% playoff chance Little Rock Uni Royals (2-8) (proj 4.3 wins) - <1% playoff chance Nothing changes at the top, other than the playoff slots being even more solidified. Pirates and Knights look to be near locks, barring absolute collapses. Kongs win this week was meaningful to create a game of separation over the 5th seed. Fire's loss hurt them, but still are in a solid position and did not lose ground to the 5 seed. A whole mess of teams remain on the outside, starting with the Mammoths and then a bunch of 4 win teams. I won't give slots 6-8 much of a chance unless I see them go on a small winning streak over the next 2 weeks. For now, the top 4 are my guess for the playoffs, with an outside chance for the Mammoths and Direwolves/Thunder as the darkhorses. Egypt Starfall (8-2) (proj 11.7 wins) - >99% playoff chance Phoenix Rattlers (7-3) (proj 10.7 wins) - 89% playoff chance Rocket City Trash Pandas (7-3) (proj 10.3 wins) - 78% playoff chance Freiburg Venom (6-4) (proj 9.0 wins) - 45% playoff chance Miami Sharks (6-4) (proj 8.7 wins) - 39% playoff chance Indianapolis Predators (5-5) (proj 8.3 wins) - 32% playoff chance Scranton Papermakers (4-6) (proj 6.6 wins) - 12% playoff chance Southview Saints (3-7) (proj 5.6 wins) - 5% playoff chance Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-7-1) (proj 4.5 wins) - <1% playoff chance Iowa Jagwads (2-8) (proj 4.4 wins) - <1% playoff chance Starfall, Rattlers, and Pandas maintain their excellent positioning in the conference, and look to be in great shape to coast to playoff berths. Surprisingly, this is the conference that has a 6-4 team in 5th place, which really muddys the waters. Venom are super hot right now, and it will be interesting to see if things continue to stay tight, or if one of those playoff teams drops off a little. Also, RIP to the Predators who started 4-0 with a godly +/-. The next couple of weeks will be critical to see if they can recover. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 3W, 3L, 3W, and then a loss. Here’s to two more losses week 11 and 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 42 minutes ago, pwny said: 3W, 3L, 3W, and then a loss. Here’s to two more losses week 11 and 12. *checks schedule* dang... don't play you 11 or 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 What are you using to predict future Pythagorean wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Tk3 said: *checks schedule* dang... don't play you 11 or 12 Already happened week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 gg @Scalamania the Carson Wentz revenge tour continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Beat the Knights still behind them in the Power Rankings. This disrespect is unreal......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravens5520 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 I’m going to need that top spot and home field advantage... 6-0 home 0-4 road Has anyone ever demoted their head coach with a winning record lol. He’s looking like a great OC right about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, pwny said: What are you using to predict future Pythagorean wins? (PF^2.37/(PF^2.37+PA^2.37))*(remaining games) + wins + ties/2 Edited August 26, 2020 by Tk3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scalamania Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 25 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said: gg @Scalamania the Carson Wentz revenge tour continues. I don't even need to watch because you spoiled it for me. gg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, Scalamania said: I don't even need to watch because you spoiled it for me. gg You are welcome 😬(aka whoops) It's a good game though. It went down to the wire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 (edited) Edited August 26, 2020 by pwny 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Tk3 said: (PF^2.37/(PF^2.37+PA^2.37))*(remaining games) + wins + ties/2 Yeah, don't use that lol. Base pythagorean wins does not work for predicting this league. Point differentials in this league are too tight to allow accurate tabulation. Even your S10 team would only have 11.45 pythagorean wins. That's precisely why I created PWN scores. PWN scores are literally just Pythagorean Wins for NSFL, where I tabulated data and adjusted the scale to match what point differentials in the league actually show. If you used the same scale I do (replace all of those 2.37s with 5.3) you'd end up with: Which is probably closer to what you're looking for. Edited August 26, 2020 by pwny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 All this math talk......nerds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts