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Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 20 - Taco Bowl XX POSTED!)

TheKillerNacho
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Tk3

Tk3

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Week 11 power rankings

  1. Egypt Starfall (9-2) - unchanged
  2. Phoenix Rattlers (8-3) - UP 1
  3. Norway Knights (8-3) - UP 1
  4. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (7-4) - DOWN 2
  5. Rocket City Trash Pandas (8-3) - unchanged
  6. Chicago Fire (7-4) - UP 2
  7. Hanoi Viet Kong (6-5) - DOWN 1
  8. South Africa Woolley Mammoths (6-5) - UP 3
  9. Freiburg Venom (6-5) - DOWN 2
  10. Indianapolis Predators (5-6) - unchanged
  11. Miami Sharks (6-5) - DOWN 2
  12. Reykjavik Direwolves (5-6) - UP 1
  13. Tacoma Thunder (5-6) - UP 1
  14. Scranton Papermakers (5-6) - UP 1
  15. Seattle Sonics (4-6-1) - DOWN 3
  16. Iowa Jagwads (3-8) - UP 3
  17. Southview Saints (3-8) - unchanged
  18. Anchorage Eskimos (4-7) - DOWN 2
  19. Little Rock Uni Royals (2-9) - UP 1
  20. Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-8-1) - DOWN 2

 

Took Pwn's advice. I very much prefer the stronger emphasis on +/-

 

Playoff odds

  1. Norway Knights (8-3) (proj 11.7 wins) - >99% playoff chance
  2. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (7-4) (proj 11.2 wins) - >99% playoff chance
  3. Chicago Fire (7-4) (proj 9.4 wins) - 53% playoff chance
  4. Hanoi Viet Kong (6-5) (proj 9.2 wins) - 48% playoff chance
  5. South Africa Woolley Mammoths (6-5) (proj 9.0 wins) - 44% playoff chance
  6. Reykjavik Direwolves (5-6) (proj 7.9 wins) - 26% playoff chance
  7. Tacoma Thunder (5-6) (proj 7.4 wins) - 18% playoff chance
  8. Seattle Sonics (4-6-1) (proj 6.5 wins) - 10% playoff chance
  9. Anchorage Eskimos (4-7) (proj 4.6 wins) - 1% playoff chance
  10. Little Rock Uni Royals (2-9) (proj 3.2 wins) - <1% playoff chance

This race got a lot more interesting this week with important wins for the Mammoths, Direwolves, and Thunder, plus the loss for the Kong. Knights have a 2 game lead over 5th, and the Pirates should be able to weather that loss. I still think the Fire have a nice leg up, but the Kong suddenly feel endangered with the glut of longshot teams all winning. The 4 seed will almost certainly be a 9 win team, so I won't count out the Direwolves or Thunder yet. I do think the Sonics have strongly fallen out of the mix though.

 

  1. Egypt Starfall (9-2) (proj 12.6 wins) - >99% playoff chance
  2. Phoenix Rattlers (8-3) (proj 11.8 wins) - >99% playoff chance
  3. Rocket City Trash Pandas (8-3) (proj 11.1 wins) - >99% playoff chance
  4. Freiburg Venom (6-5) (proj 8.5 wins) - 32% playoff chance
  5. Indianapolis Predators (5-6) (proj 8.0 wins) - 26% playoff chance
  6. Miami Sharks (6-5) (proj 8.0 wins) - 25% playoff chance
  7. Scranton Papermakers (5-6) (proj 7.0 wins) - 14% playoff chance
  8. Iowa Jagwads (3-8) (proj 5.0 wins) - 2% playoff chance
  9. Southview Saints (3-8) (proj 4.8 wins) - 1% playoff chance
  10. Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-8-1) (proj 3.2 wins) - <1% playoff chance

Oof.. this was a BAD week for this conference. At the top, Starfall, Rattlers, and Pandas won, and with losses by Venom, Predators, and Sharks, those top 3 teams are now virtually locked and just playing for seeding, with a 2 game gap between the top 3 and the 4th seed. Venom/Predators/Sharks/Papermakers are all going to slug it out to see who can steal that 4th seed.

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Malfatron

Malfatron

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On 8/29/2020 at 6:50 PM, Malfatron said:

BACK BY POPULAR DEMAND, ITS THE WEEK 11 PREVIEW

WEEK 11
Little Rock Uni Royals @ Norway Knights

 

Norway is riding high after beating Brees twice this year. You would think they would easily beat up on the hapless Royals 

But parity rules this season, and Malf has been getting lucky lately. Plus malf got cocky and didnt tailor his sliders this game. as the kids say, big oof

Dak had 400 yards last game, but this one, he will have 3 picks. Royals returns a punt for a TD, making Anger angry. All the RNG goes against the Knights this game

prediction: Royals win 41-22 in a headscratcher

 


Hanoi Viet Kongs @ Phoenix Rattlers

playoff implications abound! A loss by either team could open the door to competitors sneaking up to either take the playoffs or the division respectively. Conversely, a win puts both squarely in the drivers seat to control their own destiny. I will definitely be reading the game doc along on this one

prediction: Hanoi wins 30-13 and nudge themselves closer to the playoffs


Rocket City Trash Pandas @ Indianapolis Predators

RC looks to put the nail in the coffin for the Preds. They can afford to lose, but not if they want HFA

This is the last gasp for the former GOAT Week 4 team

however, RC is a better team

prediction: RC rolls 31-14, but is subsequently ranked below the preds in the upcoming team power rankings. 


Scranton Papermakers @ Miami Sharks

Can Miami keep defying the odds? Chances are that either them or Venom is gonna earn the right to beat Ramster in WC weekend.

Things cant be easy though. Bold prediction: Scranton gets over 150 yards on the ground and eeeks out a win

prediction: paperteam wins 27-20


South Africa Woolly Mammoths @ Anchorage Eskimos

Do or die for the SA team who made some big trades to play for the now. 

point blank: if they lose here, its over.

but they win. They are playing the exact right team to stay in the mix

prediction: SA wins 30-20


Egypt Starfalls @ Freiburg Venom

Oh man. the Venom came all this way, but now have to face the best team in the conference.

no matter what happens though, they are still in it. Rammy has a history of winning some crazy close games. I see the same thing happening here

prediction: egypt wins 27-25 (venom with a failed 2 pt conversion to lose)


Rio de Janeiro Pirates @ Reykjavík Direwolves

REY is the most underachieving team of the year. No way they should be 4-6. Rio has been playing like the best team in the NSFL lately. Somethings gotta change!

This is my lock of the week.

Prediction: REY wins 34-27

Lamaer has 315 total yards and 4 TDs

Mahomes throws 2 picks


Iowa Jagwads @ Richmond Flying Squirrels

sigh....

prediction: squirrels win 21-14 i guess


Tacoma Thunder @ Seattle Sonics

Loser is out. winner needs a lot of help but is still alive

i think thunder is just a better team all around

prediction: thunder win 38-24


Chicago Fire @ Southview Saints

Brees against the Saints?? 

He is not ready for this moment

prediction: saints win 24-16

 

6-4 record

im getting better at my analysis

this week should be even better!

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Malfatron

Malfatron

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Week 12 Preview

posting it early so owners can adjust their sliders accordingly.


Little Rock Uni Royals @ Egypt Starfalls

This game will shock Rammy to the core. He has been getting lucky each and every week. Time for RNG to strike back.

egypt has been sacked 30 times and has a combined 20 fumbles/ints.

He has allowed 372.91 yards per game. 

Here are his margins of victory

15 (i screwed up my sliders bad)

3

1

6

7

6

17 (against counse)

1

2

 

The wheels are gonna fall off soon. I think this week.

Prediction: Royals win 37-16


Miami Sharks @ South Africa Woolly Mammoths

Playoffs start now for 2 desperate teams who need a win to stay in contention

I really like Brady to pick apart a team allowing an opp passer rating of 105.81.

prediction: SA wins 43-26


Seattle Sonics @ Iowa Jagwads

Its Rookie Bowl! Burrow v Tua

The difference in the game will come down to turnovers(both qbs like to turn the ball over). Whicker is doing better in that department (+1 to -2) so I think he pulls out the W in an exciting game

prediction: Sonics 31-26


Rio de Janeiro Pirates @ Chicago Fire

Juggernaut bout! possible future playoff game!

Means a lot for the division right here.

My lock of the week paid off last week as I saw Rio losing for the first time in about a month.

This week I am nowhere near as confident.

Fire can sling it all over the field, but brees has been known to throw some ints and fumble (combined 8). Fournette has another 5 fumbles.

Brieda has been a minor guardian angel for Rio , averaging 4.48 YPC and making Mahomes not have to do it all (though he often does)

I think Rio controls the game from start to finish. Look for long drives

fires TOP is Time of Possession: 47.92%

Rios is 50.75%

If Chicago cant improve their -9 TO diff, it will be a long day.

prediction: Rio wins 34-13


Southview Saints @ Indianapolis Predators

This isnt about playoffs. this is about winning a game.

The preds have a very good shot against the Saints, but the Saints have been playing good teams close. They almost got the drop on chicago, and only lose to 1 by egypt. They actually beat the Rattler team.

But the Preds defense is among the best, only allowing 19.45 ppg.

They will definitely keep it close, and the Saints dont have enough weapons to put it away

Prediction: Preds win 17-15 (on game winning FG with under 30 secs to play)


Reykjavík Direwolves @ Richmond Flying Squirrels

Big win for REY as they find themselves back in the mix.

sadly, I like Richmond in this game.

REY is 4-2 at home, but only 1-4 away.

REYs rushing defense is pitiful. They are allowing a whopping 150 rush yards per game against them

I predict a big day with the rushing attack of Murray and Jones.

and...a lot of drive stalls for both teams

prediction: richmond 20-10


Freiburg Venom @ Rocket City Trash Pandas

Big conf game here.

I really like RC as a dark horse to make it to the nacho bowl

A balanced ball control offense, and a defense who has  forced 4.82 punts per game should coast.

prediction: RC 29-7

 


Scranton Papermakers @ Phoenix Rattlers

Big conference game here.

I also see this one ripe for an upset

This is the Malf Lock of the week!

bucs lose their first game at home???

how malf, how?

1. scranton is immune to the rubberband effect (only allowed 67 pts in the 4th)

2. This is the Malf lock of the week, which makes Cousins nervous

3. papermakers only allowing 3.53 yrds per rush, and that secondary is better than what they have been RNGing at. Marlon Mack isnt going to help that, so expect the rattlers in a lot of unfavorable scenarios.

prediction: papermakers win 20-3 (Malf lock of the week)


Norway Knights @ Tacoma Thunder

Theres a lot to like about the knights, but lets talk about the Thunder

Time of Possession: 55.02%  wow!

Rodgers is still a beast, and dbs have trouble picking him off, which i pretty much need to rely on. He will get his.

should be a good game

 

prediction: Thunder win 26-18


Anchorage Eskimos @ Hanoi Viet Kongs

Well, this is gonna be a laugher.

prediction: 31-6....eskimos

 

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