The way too early do over

[LionArkie]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

Chase Young is 81.1. Not gonna lie, totally forgot about Andrew Thomas to the Giants. Im going to put out a list of the 1st round with PFF scores in a different thread. 

That will be a fun read.  I definitely had Young as the top dog. Then I had several I would have been good with including Okudah.  My personal preference was Kinlaw though, after Young.

[SimbaWho]

4 hours ago, Nnivolcm said:

I thought the do over let me fire Quintricia like I wanted too.

Some... of us... wanted to pull a full Cardinal and get both gone after year one. Been taking heat for 3 years, assumed crazy, moron, etc. 

Questioned the last two1st round picks openly. 

Can't bother posting because people know my song and dance. 

When these two are fired...  You've got to root for something revolutionary in the GM hire. Tony Dungy is my dream move but whoever they hire needs to be really a top 10 GM in the league to turn this ship right.

Smart move is to play out the year, fire the two at the bye if they've underwhelmed. Start your search mid season, Tony Dungy GM and Eric Bieniemy HC are my dream hires, but whoever is hired will be responsible for trading Stafford and his return. Almost instantly put to the test with that move plus the draft. It's a 2 year reboot after these guys are fired. I said they were Marinelli esq and boy... Did I hit that bulls-eye many years early. I have to toot my own horn cause a lot out of people outside of you hated me for hating. 

Good thing is... I think in the offseason, there will be some buyers for Stafford. ( Jets/Steelers/Broncos/Panthers/Browns/Giants/Jaguars/Colts/ ) All could use Stafford and might give up at least a 1st rounder. 

The rebuild will be fun again for at least a few years if they don't botch the hires. 

Edited September 22, 2020 by SimbaWho

[Lions017]

I'm fine with the Okudah pick. It's rare for a rookie CB to come in and play at a high level. 

Honestly, I'm not sure if it'll matter a whole lot. 

I forsee a regime change coming soon and the team starting over completely from scratch. We really don't have that many guys to build around, especially on defense. Who would you say that we have that are legit franchise level players? Ragnow? Golladay? Stafford? 

[LionArkie]

9 hours ago, SimbaWho said:

Some... of us... wanted to pull a full Cardinal and get both gone after year one. Been taking heat for 3 years, assumed crazy, moron, etc. 

Questioned the last two1st round picks openly. 

Can't bother posting because people know my song and dance. 

When these two are fired...  You've got to root for something revolutionary in the GM hire. Tony Dungy is my dream move but whoever they hire needs to be really a top 10 GM in the league to turn this ship right.

Smart move is to play out the year, fire the two at the bye if they've underwhelmed. Start your search mid season, Tony Dungy GM and Eric Bieniemy HC are my dream hires, but whoever is hired will be responsible for trading Stafford and his return. Almost instantly put to the test with that move plus the draft. It's a 2 year reboot after these guys are fired. I said they were Marinelli esq and boy... Did I hit that bulls-eye many years early. I have to toot my own horn cause a lot out of people outside of you hated me for hating. 

Good thing is... I think in the offseason, there will be some buyers for Stafford. ( Jets/Steelers/Broncos/Panthers/Browns/Giants/Jaguars/Colts/ ) All could use Stafford and might give up at least a 1st rounder. 

The rebuild will be fun again for at least a few years if they don't botch the hires. 

I was hoping this thread would not to be all about a regime change as every other thread for the past 3 years has turned into, but who would you have picked differently.

Since you were opposed to the last two 1st round picks and looking at this team today, who would you have rather seen drafted? How would you have made this team better today with players, not management.

[LionArkie]

37 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

I'm fine with the Okudah pick. It's rare for a rookie CB to come in and play at a high level. 

Honestly, I'm not sure if it'll matter a whole lot. 

I forsee a regime change coming soon and the team starting over completely from scratch. We really don't have that many guys to build around, especially on defense. Who would you say that we have that are legit franchise level players? Ragnow? Golladay? Stafford? 

Yeah, that's probably it.  I think Okudah will be good. I think we have some good young OL talent.  But overall I feel the kitchen is only well stocked with a bunch of Campbells soup.  I think the next regime is going to have a mess on their hands.  Hate to be that guy.

Edited September 22, 2020 by LionArkie

[dll2000]

I said what you should do at time and I haven't changed my mind.

You should have drafted Tua and then traded him either during that draft or if you didn't get a good enough offer kept him for next year.  Like a rising stock.  

It was simply too valuable of a draft slot just to take a non-QB.   Even if Okudah turns out really good at CB. 

Even if Miami called your bluff and went another direction there are going to be a lot of teams that would want him next year and willing to pay a king's ransom for him.  Maybe Miami would reconsider as well next year.  

And perhaps you see in practice during 2020 that he is your QB of future and you decide to keep him.

Either way its a likely win/win/win.  You traded him during 2020 draft for a ransom.   You trade him for next year for a ransom.   You have a franchise QB which you have a whole year of practice to figure out. 

Only way to lose is if you played him and he stinks.

But you have guys on hot seat and they want to win now.   So you took a CB.  And most Lions fans applauded it.  

You should have made the value play instead.  

 

 

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

I said what you should do at time and I haven't changed my mind.

You should have drafted Tua and then traded him either during that draft or if you didn't get a good enough offer kept him for next year.  Like a rising stock.  

It was simply too valuable of a draft slot just to take a non-QB.   Even if Okudah turns out really good at CB. 

Even if Miami called your bluff and went another direction there are going to be a lot of teams that would want him next year and willing to pay a king's ransom for him.  Maybe Miami would reconsider as well next year.  

And perhaps you see in practice during 2020 that he is your QB of future and you decide to keep him.

Either way its a likely win/win/win.  You traded him during 2020 draft for a ransom.   You trade him for next year for a ransom.   You have a franchise QB which you have a whole year of practice to figure out. 

Only way to lose is if you played him and he stinks.

But you have guys on hot seat and they want to win now.   So you took a CB.  And most Lions fans applauded it.  

You should have made the value play instead.  

 

 

You could have been right. If Miami wasn't willing to move up then I feel that they would have gone with plan B (probably Herbert). We'd have two franchise QB's in Stafford and Tua on the roster. That would have created some controversy in itself and remember, the offense wasn't the issue last year. Tua was also not a lock because of the questions on his injury. If this season was a fail out (which is what it appears to be) then we're likely looking at a new regime and they're going to want their own QB. If the new regime doesn't want Tua (over Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields) it could bring into question his health and reduce the compensation for him. We don't want a repeat of the Josh Rosen situation. 

 

[dll2000]

15 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

You could have been right. If Miami wasn't willing to move up then I feel that they would have gone with plan B (probably Herbert). We'd have two franchise QB's in Stafford and Tua on the roster. That would have created some controversy in itself and remember, the offense wasn't the issue last year. Tua was also not a lock because of the questions on his injury. If this season was a fail out (which is what it appears to be) then we're likely looking at a new regime and they're going to want their own QB. If the new regime doesn't want Tua (over Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields) it could bring into question his health and reduce the compensation for him. We don't want a repeat of the Josh Rosen situation. 

 

I am just looking at it like a stock or commodity.  

 Look at it like kind of like a tech IPO.   Not everybody can buy initial offering.  You have to have special access.   So you can buy at $1 a share and as soon as it goes public it starts at $3 a share.   Instant huge profit for you regardless because you had access.

Because of your losing record you are drafting 3rd.  Which gives you that metaphorical access to good tech  IPOs in this case QBs.  QBs are tons more valuable than other positions.  Whether the QBs turn out good or not (until it is known they are bad).

So by buying Tua (even though you don't need him at moment) you are buying something EXTRA valuable to the market.   Much more valuable than Okudah or any CB or non QB position.  

There is almost no scenario where that #3 pick does not become much more valuable IF you select Tua and not any other position.   Even if Okudah becomes a multi year pro bowl player odds are very much in favor of the trade or keeping Tua ending up way more valuable.

A top rookie QB prospect is worth a minimum of 2 first rounders and good change and perhaps more.   A top franchise QB is invaluable if he looks like a stud in practice.  You would have had a whole season to figure out which you wanted to do.

OR Miami would have offered you a ransom for him in 2020 and you could have gone with the win now plan and filled 2 or 3 more holes on your team AND probably had extra picks next year  (I am thinking they would have).  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LionArkie]

15 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I am just looking at it like a stock or commodity.  

 Look at it like kind of like a tech IPO.   Not everybody can buy initial offering.  You have to have special access.   So you can buy at $1 a share and as soon as it goes public it starts at $3 a share.   Instant huge profit for you regardless because you had access.

Because of your losing record you are drafting 3rd.  Which gives you that metaphorical access to good tech  IPOs in this case QBs.  QBs are tons more valuable than other positions.  Whether the QBs turn out good or not (until it is known they are bad).

So by buying Tua (even though you don't need him at moment) you are buying something EXTRA valuable to the market.   Much more valuable than Okudah or any CB or non QB position.  

There is almost no scenario where that #3 pick does not become much more valuable IF you select Tua and not any other position.   Even if Okudah becomes a multi year pro bowl player odds are very much in favor of the trade or keeping Tua ending up way more valuable.

A top rookie QB prospect is worth a minimum of 2 first rounders and good change and perhaps more.   A top franchise QB is invaluable if he looks like a stud in practice.  You would have had a whole season to figure out which you wanted to do.

OR Miami would have offered you a ransom for him in 2020 and you could have gone with the win now plan and filled 2 or 3 more holes on your team AND probably had extra picks next year  (I am thinking they would have).  

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the little game we are playing here, I think your idea would be a good approach as well. Furthermore, I'd draft Tua, trade Stafford and bomb this year.  If you end up with the #1 in 2021, then go Lawrence and trade Tua or vice versa.  You would have a ton of picks and could really be set up well for year three of the new regime. My biggest concern about moving forward with Tua as Lions qb would be his injury history.  If he could stay healthy, I think he could be very legit.

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I am just looking at it like a stock or commodity.  

 Look at it like kind of like a tech IPO.   Not everybody can buy initial offering.  You have to have special access.   So you can buy at $1 a share and as soon as it goes public it starts at $3 a share.   Instant huge profit for you regardless because you had access.

Because of your losing record you are drafting 3rd.  Which gives you that metaphorical access to good tech  IPOs in this case QBs.  QBs are tons more valuable than other positions.  Whether the QBs turn out good or not (until it is known they are bad).

So by buying Tua (even though you don't need him at moment) you are buying something EXTRA valuable to the market.   Much more valuable than Okudah or any CB or non QB position.  

There is almost no scenario where that #3 pick does not become much more valuable IF you select Tua and not any other position.   Even if Okudah becomes a multi year pro bowl player odds are very much in favor of the trade or keeping Tua ending up way more valuable.

A top rookie QB prospect is worth a minimum of 2 first rounders and good change and perhaps more.   A top franchise QB is invaluable if he looks like a stud in practice.  You would have had a whole season to figure out which you wanted to do.

OR Miami would have offered you a ransom for him in 2020 and you could have gone with the win now plan and filled 2 or 3 more holes on your team AND probably had extra picks next year  (I am thinking they would have).  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Josh Rosen - #10 overall selection in 2018 = 1300 points

traded to Miami for 2019 2nd (63) + 2020 5th (153) = 306 points

Net = - 994 points (nearly the value of the 16th overall pick alone)

 

Tua isn't Josh Rosen and Josh Rosen isn't Tua. However, the question marks on his health were very real at draft time. If Stafford is healthy and you want to take a "wait and see" approach with Tua, then you'll have very little evidence of his abilities on field. If there are significant issues with the team (which appears to be the case), then you could rush him on the field and ruin him. Couple this with the upcoming draft class - if you're a bad team in need of a QB would you give up a 1st + more for Tua when you're probably going to be in a position to draft Lawrence, Fields or Lance. If you're the Lions and you pick wrong, you could be leaving huge value on the table because a new regime wants their own guy. Quinn and Patricia are on a short leash and they know it. 

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, LionArkie said:

In the little game we are playing here, I think your idea would be a good approach as well. Furthermore, I'd draft Tua, trade Stafford and bomb this year.  If you end up with the #1 in 2021, then go Lawrence and trade Tua or vice versa.  You would have a ton of picks and could really be set up well for year three of the new regime. My biggest concern about moving forward with Tua as Lions qb would be his injury history.  If he could stay healthy, I think he could be very legit.

You can only afford to take this approach if you know that ownership isn't expecting much on the field this year. The Dolphins have that room this year and so Flores can take his time to get Tua on the field. Quinn and Patricia don't have that kind of security. They haven't earned it so I get it... but they had to make decisions with the short term in mind knowing full well they would likely not see another offseason if they have another down year. 

[diehardlionfan]

17 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Especially if they could get fired after two years with the most recent year having lost their franchise QB halfway through the season. It would be hard to attract good quality candidates with such a quick hook. 

Had the 49ers taken the same approach, they would have fired Shanahan and not have had last years 13-3 + SB appearance.  

The firing of Patricia wouldn’t impact future coaching hires at all. The Fords, the incompetence of the organization and 50 plus years of losing would be far more detrimental than simply firing your coach. Organizations that have the ability to recognize failure, move on and take steps to correct their errors are usually front runners for qualified candidates. 

 Prospective coaches look at the quality of the opportunity and chance for success, which can be determined by numerous factors not the least of which is the GM. 

Detroits situation is far different than San Francisco. Making a comparison between the organizations  requires far more analysis than an off the cuff comment. You’re also assuming had they chosen to fire Shanny that the replacement coach wouldn’t replicate the Niners success.   Each organization has different roster shortcomings,  identity, Strengths and weaknesses. What’s the right move for one organization is flat out wrong for another. SAN Francisco was entering a total rebuild coming off a 2-14 season. He entered 2017 with a mess at QB but once they committed to Jimmy G they turned the corner. 2017 they won the last 5 games. 2018 saw them lose Jimmy G in week 3. combined with other injuries they suffered a setback. 

The Lions were a winning program when Patricia took over the team. He and Quinn have driven the team into the ground with their determination to create the Detroit Patriots.  For comparison the  Denver organization didn’t waste three years determining McDaniels future. They recognized the error and terminated him in the second season. 

Only one NFL team that fired a coach with a winning record improved the next year. Have a look at coaches with winning records that were fired. Something should jump off the page it’s so obvious.

The entire Caldwell firing and Patricia hiring has proven to be a Lion move. A rookie GM fires winningest Lions coach in the Super Bowl era to replace him with his buddy, a rookie head coach with no head coaching experience, at any level only to have the bottom drop out. After two seasons where the Lions regressed each year they are 0-2, mired in an 0-11 run which is the second worst Lions losing streak that I can remember,  Now they’re off to the desert to face a QB that lead Arizona to a tie with the Lions in his first ever game. 
 

 

 

 

[dll2000]

19 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

In the little game we are playing here, I think your idea would be a good approach as well. Furthermore, I'd draft Tua, trade Stafford and bomb this year.  If you end up with the #1 in 2021, then go Lawrence and trade Tua or vice versa.  You would have a ton of picks and could really be set up well for year three of the new regime. My biggest concern about moving forward with Tua as Lions qb would be his injury history.  If he could stay healthy, I think he could be very legit.

Well if it was me I hedge my bets.  I either trade Tua immediately for a slew of picks in 2020 and 2021 or take him for a year and practice him behind Stafford who is still quite good.

Then I talk him up at every opportunity, but don't actually play him to build value and hype.   Say I am doing what they did for Mahomes in KC.  

In meantime I am evaluating him in practice.   If he is legit good and I like him then you keep him and trade Stafford for whatever you can get for Stafford.   Which may be something decent if he has a good year.   You have your QB of present and future starting in 2021.   Sweet! 

If he isn't that good, I ( "ostensibly, wink, wink very, very reluctantly*) listen to trade offers and take best one saying it was too good to pass up and we still like Stafford.

 

 

 

[LionArkie]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

You can only afford to take this approach if you know that ownership isn't expecting much on the field this year. The Dolphins have that room this year and so Flores can take his time to get Tua on the field. Quinn and Patricia don't have that kind of security. They haven't earned it so I get it... but they had to make decisions with the short term in mind knowing full well they would likely not see another offseason if they have another down year. 

I can take this approach because this thread is void of coaches, management, owners, player unions and cherry flavor sodas.

[Karnage84]

Just now, LionArkie said:

I can take this approach because this thread is void of coaches, management, owners, player unions and cherry flavor sodas.

I'm going to send you a case of Cherry flavoured Mountain Dew.