Week 11: Packers vs Colts

[ThatJerkDave]

On 11/23/2020 at 9:48 AM, Mr Bad Example said:

I don't sweat all that much about draft capital, since in a lot of ways the draft is a crap shoot - the higher the pick, the less likely the chance a player goes bust, but we all know there are zero guarantees. I just look at how many useful players come out of a draft, and his last good one may have been in 2013 (Bakh, Hyde, Tretter, Lacy - maybe verging in great, given the performance of Bakh and Hyde, plus a solid C and a great talent with poor discipline in Lacy) . You need to be hitting at that rate; the problem is despite the notables, the other 7 picks didn't do much of anything, which is bad. 2014 he got Adams and Linsley, again 2 All-Pros, but little else around them on 9 picks. 2015 was a disaster - good talent/ten-cent head in Randall, and the rest of the players were JAGs who've pretty much already washed out. 2016 brought Kenny Clark, and it wasn't the worst - 3 useful players in Martinez, Fackrell, and Lowry; Spriggs never panned out but is in the league so there must be some ability there. 2016 brought 2 good RBs in Jones and Williams, and a decent-but-dinged CB in King, the rest meh. 

It isn't terrible, but it isn't great either. 

This got me thinking about Eddie Lacy.   He played in 51 of 64 possible regular season games as a Packer.  He rushed for 67 yards per game, with a 4.4 ypc average and scored 23 TDs.

Aaron Jones has played in 48 of a possible 58 games.  He rushes for 58 yards per game, with 5.0 ypc average and scored 34 TDs.  

 

Just kind of interesting how both are viewed in the fanbase.  Eddie started out hot then fell off.  Aaron took a while to get going. 

 

Guess my real point is, draft a RB, run him for 4 years then get a new one.  

[Mr Bad Example]

1 minute ago, ThatJerkDave said:

This got me thinking about Eddie Lacy.   He played in 51 of 64 possible regular season games as a Packer.  He rushed for 67 yards per game, with a 4.4 ypc average and scored 23 TDs.

Aaron Jones has played in 48 of a possible 58 games.  He rushes for 58 yards per game, with 5.0 ypc average and scored 34 TDs.  

Just kind of interesting how both are viewed in the fanbase.  Eddie started out hot then fell off.  Aaron took a while to get going. 

Guess my real point is, draft a RB, run him for 4 years then get a new one.  

That is how the league is going. And I think Lacy is viewed as a "coulda been" player - he was very good his first two years, and was productive on a per-game basis in the latter two, but basically ate himself out of the league. He looked like a DT (if we're being generous) or Mr Bad Example (if we're not) by the end of his tenure in GB. To fans who WISH they had a fraction of the ability of an NFL player, that's an egregious sin. 

Jones is more of a player who through poor coaching decisions (if you hate McCarthy) or his own hard work, or both, elevated himself into verging-on-elite territory. People eat that stuff up. 

 

[Refugee]

On 11/23/2020 at 7:48 AM, Mr Bad Example said:

I don't sweat all that much about draft capital, since in a lot of ways the draft is a crap shoot - the higher the pick, the less likely the chance a player goes bust, but we all know there are zero guarantees. I just look at how many useful players come out of a draft, and his last good one may have been in 2013 (Bakh, Hyde, Tretter, Lacy - maybe verging in great, given the performance of Bakh and Hyde, plus a solid C and a great talent with poor discipline in Lacy) . You need to be hitting at that rate; the problem is despite the notables, the other 7 picks didn't do much of anything, which is bad. 2014 he got Adams and Linsley, again 2 All-Pros, but little else around them on 9 picks. 2015 was a disaster - good talent/ten-cent head in Randall, and the rest of the players were JAGs who've pretty much already washed out. 2016 brought Kenny Clark, and it wasn't the worst - 3 useful players in Martinez, Fackrell, and Lowry; Spriggs never panned out but is in the league so there must be some ability there. 2016 brought 2 good RBs in Jones and Williams, and a decent-but-dinged CB in King, the rest meh. 

It isn't terrible, but it isn't great either. 

It is a crap shoot but it is the best way to build a competitive roster in a salary capped league. You’ve got to try to maximize it’s potential and more swings at the plate is a huge deal. 

The Pats are great at getting guys off of the scrap heap and plugging them into roles where they can excel. Good pro scouting and good coaching that know what they need to make their system work. Even though they get knocked for poor drafting, they do get some gems and other serviceable guys to keep the roster viable, including a 6th round starting QB. 

If you get 2 quality starters from a draft, I believe it was a good one.  How the fill in guys work out is important but those are holes you can fill with journeymen, you just have to know how to not fall in love with your own picks when it comes time to make a change.

Also, don’t sleep on the return on the Spriggs investment.  He might be starting at tackle for Chi tomorrow.  He could still help us yet!

 

Edited November 29, 2020 by Refugee

[Mr Bad Example]

2 hours ago, Refugee said:

It is a crap shoot but it is the best way to build a competitive roster in a salary capped league. You’ve got to try to maximize it’s potential and more swings at the plate is a huge deal. 

And that's where I feel the problems were with Thompson in his later years - he DID bring in a decent amount of front-line players but the average starters/scrubs were lacking. That's where you really need to make hay with draft picks, because that's what keeps the cap number down. 

[ThatJerkDave]

15 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said:

That is how the league is going. And I think Lacy is viewed as a "coulda been" player - he was very good his first two years, and was productive on a per-game basis in the latter two, but basically ate himself out of the league. He looked like a DT (if we're being generous) or Mr Bad Example (if we're not) by the end of his tenure in GB. To fans who WISH they had a fraction of the ability of an NFL player, that's an egregious sin. 

Jones is more of a player who through poor coaching decisions (if you hate McCarthy) or his own hard work, or both, elevated himself into verging-on-elite territory. People eat that stuff up. 

 

I wonder though, if Eddie's two good years were his final two, rather than his first two, would the whole situation be viewed more positively? We did get about 3000 yards and 23 TDs in the first three years from the second round pick.  To me that is worth it.  Saying that, everyone would prefer a second round pick to stick around longer than that.  I guess I am defending Ted in a way.  I have seen (absolutely not what you did) Lacy being some kind of indictment of Ted.  The guy won rookie of the year and was a second team all-pro! 

12 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said:

And that's where I feel the problems were with Thompson in his later years - he DID bring in a decent amount of front-line players but the average starters/scrubs were lacking. That's where you really need to make hay with draft picks, because that's what keeps the cap number down. 

 

The disaster that was the 2015 draft can't be ignored.  We got a couple of years out of Randall, and turned him into Deshone Kizer.  We got a few good games out of Ty Montgomery.  Ripkowski was a good FB, I suppose.  And Hundleymania was fun in the preseason.

It may go back even further than that, with some good picks sprinkled in.  2016 was a grand slam, hole in one, windmill dunk though.  

2011 - Yeah, we were picking 32.  But we got Randall Cobb, Davon House and Lawrence Guy out of 10 picks.  The rest of these guys never really did anything.  

2012 - Casey Hayward and Mike Daniels cover a lot of warts.  Nick Perry was pretty good, but probably underachieved.  The remainder of this draft didn't even offer much depth.

2013 - Getting Eddie Lacy and David Bakhtiari gives this one a great boost.  We got a lot of play from Micah Hyde as well.  Tretter is still playing, though circumstances prevented him from having the biggest impact as a Packer.  Datone Jones is a straight up bust.  Again, we don't get positional value or special teams aces from the rest of the picks.

2014 -  Pretty good.  HaHa, Davante, Linsley, DickRod, and Janis and Goodson were pretty good ST players.

2015 - Fore mentioned disaster.

2016 - Fore mentioned glorious stupendous ultra draft 8000.

2017- If not for Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams this might be just as bad as 2015.  Kevin King is great, when he is able to get on the field.  Jones and Williams give us a very good backfield, and complement each other very well, and even offer the versatility to both be on the field at the same time, despite playing the same position.  Those two are also showing continuous growth as players.  The other 7 picks that year gave us absolutely nothing and 3 seasons later are not on our roster (Monty Adams is still floating around)

2018 (this one is on Gute, right?) - Jaire Alexander is a stud.  But after that, if we really look at it, it may be pretty bad.  I love me some MVS and EQ, but they have been surpassed by Lazard.  The Packers also signed Devin Funchess, tried to trade for Fuller, tried to get Robby Anderson (twice), and went after Allen Robinson in 2018 (I don't recall if that was before or after the draft).  Josh Jackson looks to be improving, but there was not much room to regress before this season.  JK Scott is a below average punter.  Oren Burks is on borrowed time.  We got nothing from the other 5 picks.  Special shout to Hunter Bradley, who is a LS and we never hear his name, meaning that he is doing his job.

 

We went from 2011 to 2014 without adding much in the way of role players or special teams stand outs.  Then 15, 17, and 18 are more of the same.  What we do seem to be very good at, and maybe I just notice because I pay more attention to the Packers, is finding UDFAs and scrap heap cuts that help out.  Why we drafted James Looney or Kendal Donnerson instead of Tyler Lancaster is what I don't understand.  And though the net result was the same, would I look more favorably at the 18 draft had Lancaster been the 7th rounder and Looney the FA?

[MacReady]

Our roster is not the issue.

He inherited Adams, but to spend a fourth, fifth and sixth round draft pick and get MVS/Lazard is impressive.  Considering investment amount to quality, Packers WR corps is the best in the NFL. 

Same with the interior offensive line.

Then you've got Preston and Z, both of which are capable of greatness, with Gary progressing slowly but surely, ready by the time Preston leaves.

Then Savage, Alexander, Sullivan...

Gute has built an impressive roster without using much (since he hasn't had much). 

If Pettine wasn't coordinator, Gute would be getting a lot of praise right now.