Kam Curl vs. Jeremy Chinn

[turtle28]

1 minute ago, Skinsin2013 said:

Landon Collins = Jayson Werth.

He helps rebuild a franchise and sends them in the right direction and then they become a winner?

[Skinsin2013]

4 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

He helps rebuild a franchise and sends them in the right direction and then they become a winner?

I should have added in [the signing of....]. 

I'm HOPEFUL their paths will be similar. 

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, offbyone said:

I am pretty sure if we get a top 10 pick that everyone wants we are just going to force one of these project qbs and burn a couple years waiting for him to fail.  This obsession with the draft position is hard for me to understand.  The obsession should be how successful we are with our picks, not the position of our picks.  

#22 Justin Jefferson
#25 Brandon Aiyik
#28 Patrick Queen

The teams would have been happy to have used a top half of draft pick.  The obsession with the top spots just means you have no faith in your scouting department.

Well of course you can find talent late in the 1st but again, the best chance you have at getting the best talent is at the top of the draft.

Justin Jefferson falling was a damn disgrace! That guy was awesome at LSU, I would say other teams - especially the Eagles & Raiders - have crap scouting departments and GMs bc they passed on him for lesser WRs. I’m so glad that Jefferson didn’t go to the Eagles, I was for sure they’d draft him and when they took Reagor over him I was elated!

It’s quite amazing that Minny didn’t miss trading away Stephon Diggs because they replaced him with Jefferson and got a 2020 first-round pick (No. 22 overall), a 2020 fifth-round pick, a 2020 sixth-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick back while doing so. Talk about some great front office work!

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, offbyone said:

I am pretty sure if we get a top 10 pick that everyone wants we are just going to force one of these project qbs and burn a couple years waiting for him to fail.  This obsession with the draft position is hard for me to understand.  The obsession should be how successful we are with our picks, not the position of our picks.  

#22 Justin Jefferson
#25 Brandon Aiyik
#28 Patrick Queen

The teams would have been happy to have used a top half of draft pick.  The obsession with the top spots just means you have no faith in your scouting department.

Of course everyone’s obsession is with how successful the picks are, rather than how high the pick. Once they’re drafted, no one cares where they got picked, just how they play. The most beloved player on this forum went in the 3rd round — in the same draft that the most hated player on this forum went in the 1st. 

But where they get drafted does tend to correlate with how well they end up being able to play. The further down the board you go, the more difficulty even great FOs have in consistently picking impact talent. 

You can even just look at the guys you selected from the past draft. I assume you chose 3 appealing picks to demonstrate that you can get quality talent there. But even one of those guys (Queen), who was a good player on a great team who has a lot of tools and got drafted by what is for my money the best-run franchise in football, absolutely sucked for most of this season. I think there’s still hope he can turn it around — he will be well-coached in an excellent culture, and ILB is always a tough position for a rookie to just step in at, especially with a rough offseason. But that’s one of the top couple guys you hand-picked, and he was one of the worst full-time players in the NFL after about Week 5 or so. 

Depending on the draft, and the particular pool of players available, the difference between 10 and 20 can be tremendous. Take last year, if you’re a team looking for OL help, at 10 you’ve got your choice between three OTs who were borderline (or actual) Pro-Bowlers as a rookie in Wills, Becton, and Wirfs. At 20? Your top options basically were Cesar Ruiz (a guard who was below-average when he could get on the field) and Isaiah Wilson (super raw OT who looks like he might never get on the field). The drop-off in talent was tremendous. 

Same looks to be true of pass-catchers in the upcoming draft. The group is definitely much deeper than OL was in last year’s draft, so you’re not totally screwed picking outside the top 10-12 — but (I believe) there is a big drop-off in WR talent after Chase, Smith, and Waddle, and there’s an enormous drop-off after Pitts at TE. You will almost assuredly have one of those guys on the board at 10. There is almost a 0% chance one will be on the board at 20.

So you’re talking about getting a less valuable prospect, which basically means one of two things: lower ceiling or lower probability of hitting at least a “good” outcome. That is inevitably the case as you move down the board. Doesn’t mean you can’t still hit — just means you’re playing with worse odds. And that’s true of every single team. No FO, no matter how good they are, is immune to busts and failed picks.

All of that is without even discussing the franchise QB issue. I’m sure you’ve seen my posts about the numbers on QBs outside the top half of the 1st round, so I won’t belabor the point, except to say that based on many years of draft outcomes, your odds of hitting on a franchise QB plummet once you get outside the top 12ish picks.

Edited December 31, 2020 by e16bball

[turtle28]

@e16bball 

[e16bball]

And I should say, I’m going to be rooting for them to win, on Sunday and forever until someone fells them. 

But I just can’t sit here and convince the logical part of my brain that that’s the best, highest-probability path to building the most talented roster we possibly can. I don’t believe that it is, I think more blue-chip talent to our offense (like we’ve done for the defense) is absolutely critical, and I think the higher pick would help us do that. 

But, as I’ve done for much of my life, come Sunday night I’m going to tell my whiny nerd brain and its “logic” to pipe down so that my fearsome jock side can have full latitude to pace and roar and pound my chest and threaten refs and flex on these losers as the WFT rolls them. I think it’s an okay compromise to strike, especially because it’s a pretty great consolation prize if we lose.

[offbyone]

6 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Of course everyone’s obsession is with how successful the picks are, rather than how high the pick. Once they’re drafted, no one cares where they got picked, just how they play. The most beloved player on this forum went in the 3rd round — in the same draft that the most hated player on this forum went in the 1st. 

Thanks for adding to my point.

6 minutes ago, e16bball said:

But

There is no but.  The quality of player you pick is all that matters.  Sure there are more options the higher you pick.  That is just basic math.  Still, worrying about this is a waste of time.  Unless you are a Dan Snyder minion and your focus is winning the offseason, not winning during the season.  That is what I keep hearing.  Offseason is more important than season.

9 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Depending on the draft, and the particular pool of players available, the difference between 10 and 20 can be tremendous. Take last year, if you’re a team looking for OL help, at 10 you’ve got your choice between three OTs who were borderline (or actual) Pro-Bowlers as a rookie in Wills, Becton, and Wirfs. At 20? Your top options basically were Cesar Ruiz (a guard who was below-average when he could get on the field) and Isaiah Wilson (super raw OT who looks like he might never get on the field). The drop-off in talent was tremendous. 

And there were multiple players I pointed out in the bottom half of the draft which would have changed our season.  In this draft, there are lots of quality oline prospects who will be available in the bottom half of 1st round.  Look at the Giants.  How is Andrew Thomas working out?  Looking like a potential bust or at the very least average at best.  

10 minutes ago, e16bball said:

All of that is without even discussing the franchise QB issue. I’m sure you’ve seen my posts about the numbers on QBs outside the top half of the 1st round, so I won’t belabor the point, except to say that based on many years of draft outcomes, your odds of hitting on a franchise QB plummet once you get outside the top 12ish picks.

There is no qb in this draft worth a top 5 pick outside of Lawrence.  They are all crapshoots and will all be overdrafted.  More than likely they will cost whoever drafts them years of investment to go nowhere.  If you want a top pick just so you can force a qb, then you aren't making good draft decisions anyways.  There are tons of free agents qbs or ones available via trade this year that make us instantly legitimate at the position.  This team is ready to go now.  The defense is just a piece away from being elite.  The offense needs a qb, a pass catcher and an olinemen.  If you draft a project qb and waste a couple years developing him, even if it works out, you just wasted multiple years of Chase Young's career.  You end up putting wear on Gibson's tires that gets you now where.  Much like what happened with the Giants and Barkley.  Etc

[turtle28]

@offbyone Every single draft pick is a crap shoot! Nothing is guaranteed in the draft or free agency, but you draft/sign the best players you can.

I mean with your kind of thought process then teams should never take a QB or player in the first round unless you are for sure that they will be a great starter?

I’m sorry, but that’s just not a realistic outlook. You take the best player available. If you as a scouting person/GM feel that’s a QB and you don’t have a good young QB on your roster you draft them and then you trust your coaching staff to develop that player with the few flaws they have into a good starter bc that’s their jobs and that’s what you hired them to do.

I mean honestly, even Trevor Lawrence is not a 100% sure thing. Last year in the CFP he played awful as a passer vs Ohio State and LSU bc they had great defenses and it was the first time I think Clemson had faced a great defense all year.
 

The only reason Clemson beat OSU last year was because of Trevor as a runner - not a passer - and Travis Eiteene on screens and as a runner too. Clemson did that to neutralize Chase Young and OSU’s pass rush.
 

So, even Trevor is not as sure a thing as everyone makes him out to be but, if you had the #1 pick you’d drsft him right? 
 

Of course you would bc he’s the best prospect on the board!

Edited December 31, 2020 by turtle28

[ovfd55]

To me it Top 5 pick or I want to win every game we can win.

Example we need a WR  and I love Devonta Smith who in my view should win Hiesman who a projected top 10 pick but I can't guarntee he'll be a better pro then say Rondale Moore who is projected end of 1st early 2nd.

I also think you get more busts in the 5-15 range cuase you end up picking on what guys could be more then picking on what they are now

[ripsean21]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

Of course everyone’s obsession is with how successful the picks are, rather than how high the pick. Once they’re drafted, no one cares where they got picked, just how they play. The most beloved player on this forum went in the 3rd round — in the same draft that the most hated player on this forum went in the 1st. 

But where they get drafted does tend to correlate with how well they end up being able to play. The further down the board you go, the more difficulty even great FOs have in consistently picking impact talent. 

You can even just look at the guys you selected from the past draft. I assume you chose 3 appealing picks to demonstrate that you can get quality talent there. But even one of those guys (Queen), who was a good player on a great team who has a lot of tools and got drafted by what is for my money the best-run franchise in football, absolutely sucked for most of this season. I think there’s still hope he can turn it around — he will be well-coached in an excellent culture, and ILB is always a tough position for a rookie to just step in at, especially with a rough offseason. But that’s one of the top couple guys you hand-picked, and he was one of the worst full-time players in the NFL after about Week 5 or so. 

Depending on the draft, and the particular pool of players available, the difference between 10 and 20 can be tremendous. Take last year, if you’re a team looking for OL help, at 10 you’ve got your choice between three OTs who were borderline (or actual) Pro-Bowlers as a rookie in Wills, Becton, and Wirfs. At 20? Your top options basically were Cesar Ruiz (a guard who was below-average when he could get on the field) and Isaiah Wilson (super raw OT who looks like he might never get on the field). The drop-off in talent was tremendous. 

Same looks to be true of pass-catchers in the upcoming draft. The group is definitely much deeper than OL was in last year’s draft, so you’re not totally screwed picking outside the top 10-12 — but (I believe) there is a big drop-off in WR talent after Chase, Smith, and Waddle, and there’s an enormous drop-off after Pitts at TE. You will almost assuredly have one of those guys on the board at 10. There is almost a 0% chance one will be on the board at 20.

So you’re talking about getting a less valuable prospect, which basically means one of two things: lower ceiling or lower probability of hitting at least a “good” outcome. That is inevitably the case as you move down the board. Doesn’t mean you can’t still hit — just means you’re playing with worse odds. And that’s true of every single team. No FO, no matter how good they are, is immune to busts and failed picks.

All of that is without even discussing the franchise QB issue. I’m sure you’ve seen my posts about the numbers on QBs outside the top half of the 1st round, so I won’t belabor the point, except to say that based on many years of draft outcomes, your odds of hitting on a franchise QB plummet once you get outside the top 12ish picks.

E one day I’d just like to talk the draft with you!!! I’m putting that on my bucket list!!!

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, ovfd55 said:

To me it Top 5 pick or I want to win every game we can win.

Example we need a WR  and I love Devonta Smith who in my view should win Hiesman who a projected top 10 pick but I can't guarntee he'll be a better pro then say Rondale Moore who is projected end of 1st early 2nd.

I also think you get more busts in the 5-15 range cuase you end up picking on what guys could be more then picking on what they are now

I would wager that there are more busts in the second half of the first round than the first half of the first round. It’s just people tend to forget when there’s a bust in the second half of the first round bc that player wasn’t a top 15 or top 10 pick.

Edited January 1, 2021 by turtle28

[taylor made]

I've noticed though that the safety position has rookies come in and do well to their first year or two and then kind of fall off. It's like the league gets tape on these guys and exploits their weakness. Or they can't hold physically over time. Have we all forgotten about Chris Horton so quick? I'll try to get some more names but you can look at our team at players like Kyshoen Jarrett, LaRon Landry, Horton and even Landon Collins who had hasn't played to the level he did with the Giants. I hope Curl can break our curse!!

[turtle28]

Great work by Kam Curl here shedding, finding the ball carrier and getting a TFL on Mike Davis playing as an OLB.

[turtle28]

16 minutes ago, taylor made said:

I've noticed though that the safety position has rookies come in and do well to their first year or two and then kind of fall off. It's like the league gets tape on these guys and exploits their weakness. Or they can't hold physically over time. Have we all forgotten about Chris Horton so quick? I'll try to get some more names but you can look at our team at players like Kyshoen Jarrett, LaRon Landry, Horton and even Landon Collins who had hasn't played to the level he did with the Giants. I hope Curl can break our curse!!

Horton was a decade ago, Landry was asked to switch positions to FS after Sean was Killed and he was a better fit at SS - although he wasn’t awful at FS either - Kyshoen Jarret hurt his shoulder/neck and was never able to play another game after his rookie season bc he couldn’t use that arm very well.

Anything else?

[taylor made]

2 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Horton was a decade ago, Landry was asked to switch positions to FS after Sean was Killed and he was a better fit at SS - although he wasn’t awful at FS either - Kyshoen Jarret hurt his shoulder/neck and was never able to play another game after his rookie season bc he couldn’t use that arm very well.

Anything else?

Anything else about what?