Journey to Ring 3: Club Evaluation & Building Another Champion

[diamondbull424]

12 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Justin Ellis played 358 Defensive Snaps for us in 2020. That's not an insignificant number. 

And 153 of those snaps came during our 3 consecutive losses(NE,TEN,PIT). He played on 81%, 83%, and 67% of the snaps in those games respectively. 

I'm not pinning the losses directly on his shoulders, that would be silly, but anytime you have JAG-y players stepping into key positions for significant stretches- you're going to feel it to some degree. 

A deep and impactful rotation at DI is worth a lot more than one at EDGE. It's great that we have Justin Madubuike and Calais Campbell going into 2021, but fleshing out the position group and rotation behind them will be key. We want to keep Campbell as fresh and preserved as possible to maximize his effectiveness at age 34(Will turn 35 in Sept.).

I maintain that this is one of the most important drafts EDC will have ever been a part of. We could use additions at WR, IOL,T, DI, FS, EDGE, TE, and even CB. All coming at a time where Lamar will be transitioning from his Rookie contract to a Max one. We can't afford any major misses or blunders right now. 

Thank F*ck for that Texans organization boy, we really needed those Culley Comps.

I think Marvin Wilson in the 3rd/4th round should be almost a guarantee at this point. He’s literally perfect for our scheme and would be the ideal 2 gap DL to have deployed behind Williams and the future at the NT position for us. Would be a perfect pairing. Similarly perfect would be Rashad Weaver within our defensive front playing the SAM spot.

[Ray Reed]

Bring back Ricky Wagner as a swing T and/or veteran insurance if we trade Brown

[diamondbull424]

10 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

Awesome, I’d definitely be in on that. With Hopkins making $27 a year and guys like Cooper and Allen making $20 I’d still expect Robinson to get more than 20 APY but even if it’s like 22/23 clearly it’s doable.

Hopefully the cap explodes like people are suggesting after the new TV $ to make that $28 figure more manageable down the line. 

DeAndre Hopkins only got $42.75m guaranteed at signing. Providing Robinson $55m guaranteed would be the same method we’ve historically used to retain/sign players where we couldn’t compete from a contract total standpoint. Be it Suggs first deal or the deal Ronnie Stanley just signed that was far lower in APY than Tunsil, but we gave him $24m more in GTD dollars more than Tunsil.

For many players guaranteed money is king. So while we would be paying Robinson potentially less money than he could receive on the open market, roughly $2-3m less from an APY perspective. The additional guaranteed dollars of $15m would be more than enough incentive considering the less guaranteed and the more pushed off to later years, means the less chance that the player is likely to acquire those moneys that appear on paper.

So in the grand scheme of things $55m guaranteed vs the $40m and $43m that the other receivers received is a significant difference.

[DreamKid]

It's hilarious watching fans of teams like the Chiefs, Packers, Steelers, etc scream how much they need another early round receiver-... like their situation is desperate. 

 

 

[Ray Reed]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

DeAndre Hopkins only got $42.75m guaranteed at signing. Providing Robinson $55m guaranteed would be the same method we’ve historically used to retain/sign players where we couldn’t compete from a contract total standpoint. Be it Suggs first deal or the deal Ronnie Stanley just signed that was far lower in APY than Tunsil, but we gave him $24m more in GTD dollars more than Tunsil.

For many players guaranteed money is king. So while we would be paying Robinson potentially less money than he could receive on the open market, roughly $2-3m less from an APY perspective. The additional guaranteed dollars of $15m would be more than enough incentive considering the less guaranteed and the more pushed off to later years, means the less chance that the player is likely to acquire those moneys that appear on paper.

So in the grand scheme of things $55m guaranteed vs the $40m and $43m that the other receivers received is a significant difference.

I like it. Hopefully that $188 number that’s been floated around recently comes to fruition

[diamondbull424]

2 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

I like it. Hopefully that $188 number that’s been floated around recently comes to fruition

I think its more often than not. Both the players and league will be motivated to want the cap space as high as possible from a competitive standpoint as well as “getting theirs” standpoint. Americans are a credit based society, they’ll push off the debt for future seasons as much as possible.
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The only problem now will be the Bears seem set to franchise tag Allen Robinson now, which sucks. I thought they’d be too cash strapped to do so. With Golladay (no playoff appearances) and Godwin (less than stellar playoff appearances), I don’t feel nearly as confident.

Robinson was/is the only WR that I feel confident would be an absolute difference maker on this squad.

Some players are just built different and perform better in the clutch. Hollywood seems to be one of those guys. Marvin Harrison was the opposite of that kind of guy, consistently running the wrong routes and having stinkers in clutch moments.
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Allen Robinson though, IMO is a true difference maker. He’s a clutch performer that steps his game to another level int he playoffs. He’s exactly what we need... but trading for him would be far less motivating. Will be interesting to see how that Bears situation plays out. Hopefully Ryan Pace blunders again.

[SalvadorsDeli]

I love Golladay. He's what Mike Williams was supposed to be. Even when Stafford went down last year he was making plays with David Blough at QB. Think he'd do wonders for Lamar's confidence in taking shots downfield. 

In some ways I almost hope all of the hype circles on Robinson so we could try and swoop in on Golladay for that little bit cheaper. I'd still prefer Robinson all things being equal but I would also be over the moon to get Kenny G. 

Godwin I'm probably the iffiest of the 3 in terms of paying WR1 money, but it's probably a moot point because Brady basically runs the show down there and isn't going to let them let him walk. 

Edited February 20, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[DreamKid]

I want to caution people on hyping the additions of receivers largely known for their 50/50 reception highlights.

When Lamar sees multiple DBs around Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay in congested coverage, he's not going to be thinking "There we go that's my guy" "Now that I have him, I can just put the ball in his vicinity and he'll come down with it".

He's going to see occupied defenders and running lanes. Same as he does with Miles Boykin another big bodied supposed catch radius 50/50 fiend. Boykin had one of the best contested catch rates in all of CFB when he entered the draft, have we seen any of that? Nope. Now that's in part because Miles Boykin isn't a good receiver, but it's also because Lamar doesn't want to throw up balls into tight windows and or tight coverage. 

Flacco couldn't turn one frozen LB and a shielded CB into a 30 yard gain with his legs, Lamar can. That's why Flacco would lob up opportunity balls to his guys, and why Lamar really doesn't. Jackson doesn't see the value in a 50/50 ball when he has a 80-90% of moving the sticks with his feet. And we shouldn't knock him for such a judgement call, it makes sense. Boldin's existence in our Lamar offense would obviously look a lot different than his during the Flacco era.

It's why I constantly harp on separation when we're looking at receivers. Especially ones that are going to be running routes outside where Lamar doesn't like throwing to begin with. He wants to see guys streaking open so he knows a completion is a near guarantee, and he's constantly weighing how open they are against his own ability to rip off chunk yardage.

Now before I get bombarded, I fully understand that both Robinson and Golladay have viable talents beyond 50/50 ability and represent massive upgrades over non justifiable starters like Miles Boykin. Also, separation does come in varied forms. Lamar will make use of frame/dimensional separation, we see that a lot with Mark Andrews. Where Mark does have a defender somewhat on him but Lamar will throw to a spot where he knows he'll come away with it. So that's where big bodied options like Robinson and Golladay do come in handy. However, a lot of those throws come in the middle of the field or when everything is condensed around the red zone. And I imagine we'd be bringing in Golladay and A-Rob to work outside for us. So they'll be where Lamar struggles to throw to and won't have the kind of separation he deems ideal. I can promise you Lamar won't view 3 defenders bunched around either of them on the boundary much differently than if it were Boykin. So please just temper expectations you have for what these kinds of receivers will look like in our offense. 

To put it in perspective, during Kenny Golladay's best season 2019- he had the worst qualifying average separation in the league at 1.9 Yards per NFL's Next Gen Stats. It was down further in 2020 at 1.8, tied with the beat up and old AJ Green.

Lamar's favorite targets within our offense? Mark Andrews- 2.6, Willie Snead- 3.2, and Marquise Brown 3.3.

Snead and Andrews work inside where it's easier to separate(especially in our offense), while Hollywood was only operating out of the slot on 14% of our pass plays- yet still maintained that 3.3 figure. Tyreek Hill only had 0.1 Yards more with 3.4, and was in the slot on 40% of their passing plays. 

Allen Robinson is better than KG with totals of 2019/2.2 & 2020/2.3.

Again, not trying to black pill anyone's hype about possibly getting one of these guys but I do want everyone to understand the realities of a possible addition.

The actual best fits at receiver for a Lamar passing game are guys like obviously Hollywood, and then Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, etc.

Playmaking WRs with great-elite separation ability outside. Length is a plus, but you also want them to be agile because they'll need to come back to balls when Lamar starts scrambling. He doesn't have the arm to lace frozen ropes all over the field like Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, etc. So pure size can be a detriment. 

[DreamKid]

Rumor has it Marshon Lattimore could be on the trade block.

24 Y/O. Top 5-10 CB. We really liked him in the 2017 draft, tried to trade up for him. Don't see us making the move, but it's worth noting anytime an uber talented young DB is available. Our FO certainly has an apatite for elite coverage pieces.  

Could see the Browns being very motivated to get him. So that will be interesting as well. Lattimore and Ward would make a pretty nasty CB duo and quite the treat for all those dopey tOSU fans. I'm sure Dobbins will enjoy sonning them on tackle attempts too.

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Flacco couldn't turn one frozen LB and a shielded CB into a 30 yard gain with his legs, Lamar can. That's why Flacco would lob up opportunity balls to his guys, and why Lamar really doesn't. Jackson doesn't see the value in a 50/50 ball when he has a 80-90% of moving the sticks with his feet. And we shouldn't knock him for such a judgement call, it makes sense. Boldin's existence in our Lamar offense would obviously look a lot different than his during the Flacco era.

Disagree. I think you’re giving Flacco too much credit and giving too little to Lamar. Part of why Boldin only produced 800-900 yd seasons in Baltimore was because Flacco was risk adverse and preferred not to throw to receivers that were in tight coverage. So unless Boldin had immediate separation, he was consistently not drawing targets from Flacco. This is no different than the point you’re referencing here regarding Lamar.

The reason why Boldin went off in the 2012 playoffs was less because Boldin was suddenly far more effective and more because Flacco finally began to trust Boldin to make plays when within tight coverage.

Kurt Warner talks about this in an interview regarding his time in Arizona vs his time with the Rams, he spoke about how his backup QB would tell him, “Kurt you’ve got to throw that football, he’s open” and Warner would say, “but he’s got a guy all over him” and his backup QB would say “For a guy like Larry Fitzgerald, that’s open.” Once Flacco understood what open was for Boldin, he ignited in the playoffs for a historical run. That was also historically altered by the strong presence of speedy threats like Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones positioning Anquan Boldin into a position where he was in 1v1 coverage. Torrey Smith drew the safety bracket attention deep, while Jacoby and Pitta being legitimate threats to beat 1v1 attention, forced defenses to have to leave Boldin single covered.

Flacco during that playoff run finally understood that in the NFL and with Boldin in particular, single coverage, meant he was open. You just have to toss it in his direction and give him a chance.
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Lamar Jackson has shown throughout his history, dating back to his time at Louisville that his favorite targets are guys that consistently high point the football and display a wide catch radius. Jaylen Smith was a deep threat at Louisville, but he was also Lamar’s best option in jump ball situations. In college Lamar would’ve liked Boykin as well. The thing that separated Andrews from Hurst is Andrews has a wide catch radius. Lamar can target Andrews up high or down low and he will be able to make those quick adjustments more often than not. Whereas Hurst also was a strong 50/50 option in college, but his catch radius was small. Boykin is very much the same, small catch radius due to his below average processing speed within the heat of the moment.

There is a lot of truth to what you say about Lamar having more faith in his legs than throwing it into troubled windows, however we’ve also seen with Hollywood Brown this season that he will throw into troubled windows to give his targets a chance. We saw on that Duvernay deep pass that was intercepted that Lamar was willing to give him a chance at the play, but Duvernay doesn’t track the ball well and he doesn’t high point the ball. We saw on the Hollywood target against the Titans in the playoffs that Lamar, within a no win-situation (where his legs were unlikely to win) toss up a 50/50 ball to Brown because he was in single coverage. Lamar is far more willing (at a younger age) than Flacco to provide 50/50 targets, there just has to be a great enough trust in his WRs to get the job done. Boykin throughout his young career has displayed an inability to consistently target inaccurate balls or at least play defense from defenders.
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This to say, I do agree that Anquan Boldin would’ve looked different within a Lamar offense. But my reasoning is much different than yours. He would be more dangerous because Lamar would have the confidence to target him and Boldin, as he did for Flacco, would pay off that confidence in spades. Granted the yardage would likely be the same- because the passing offense is at a back burner within our offensive attack, but Boldin’s TD numbers likely would’ve been up more.

This isn’t to make Lamar sound as though he’s a perfect QB option, just that targeting tight coverage is a skill that all young QBs have to learn to throw into. Flacco didn’t put in the same kind of work in the offseason with regard to working with his receivers as Lamar has shown in a non-covid offseason. How much sooner would Flacco had realized trust in Boldin, had he immediately called Boldin up and flew him out to his home in Reisterstown, MD to live with him for a couple weeks and get to work? We sign Allen Robinson or trade for Julio Jones (if the situation in Atlanta changes) and what are the chances that we don’t see a story up on the Ravens website about how Lamar already has plans to get together with said player over the summer to throw to him. The most we got from Flacco was he was taking up boxing in the offseason (well he did eventually work with his guys in the offseason, but that was the year we drafted Jackson and there was pressure for his job). But even then, Flacco eventually learned to throw into tight windows with certain receivers and it made all the difference.
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Anyways not to turn this into a Flacco referendum or Lamar vs Flacco type thing (as hopefully that’s not the point being crafted by my word diarrhea in this response). My most hopeful point is, I think Lamar and our offense with a receiver like Robinson becomes far more effective for three main reasons:

1) It provides him another wide catch radius WR to target on critical chain moving downs: Flacco had Pitta and Boldin, you couldn’t double cover them both underneath and thus whichever got single covered, he would trust in key 3rd down situations. It’s no secret that Andrews is THE go-to option in key 3rd down situations. Lamar won’t hesitate to trust Andrews in double or triple coverage over tossing it to Boykin in single coverage because he BIG TRUSTS Andrews to either come down with it or make sure no one else comes down with it. Allen Robinson would largely present another target with a great catch radius that Lamar can trust as a chain mover on key downs as well as within endzone situations.

2) It provides more single coverage across the board: Torrey, Boldin, Pitta, Jacoby all together ensured that the other options saw far more single coverage across the board during that playoff run especially. As our current offense stands, Andrews and Hollywood can both consistently see bracket coverage where defenses can play a man/zone combination where guys stick with Andrews and Hollywood and zone up everyone else or concentrate zone coverages on dropping to those two targets. Adding Robinson would push Boykin/Duvernay to move into the 4th option role, where- like Jacoby, they can face the 4th worst coverage options on the defense on a consistent basis and become more effective, while simultaneously assisting in forcing more single coverage for the likes of Hollywood, Andrews, and Robinson to all feast off of.

3) Scramble Opportunities: Teams will have a choice to make. They can keep attempting to use two spies on Lamar to prevent him from exploiting scramble lanes. But that strategy looks a whole lot less effective when they keep getting gashed by Allen Robinson and Mark Andrews on short to intermediate completions. Eventually defenders will naturally get out of position... and more explosive runs for Lamar will be the result.
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There becomes a synergistic effect created by having at least 3 strong receiving targets on the field all at the same time. You can’t get away with having just two strong receiving targets on the field at a time, consistently, in the modern NFL and consistently win against teams that are playing for real.

Going back the last 10 SB wins, minus Patriots wins (I don’t count anomalies), every SB winner has those 3-4 strong targets outside of the 2013 Seahawks (All Time defense). Our 2012 Ravens, the 2017 Eagles and 2011 Giants had the requisite talent; the Giants with prime Victor Cruz, prime Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham; the Eagles with Zack Ertz, Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith (deep threat), and Nelson Agholor (deep threat). Legitimate deep threats change the calculus of what constitutes “effective” and that’s why Smith and Agholor IMO count. Outside of improving our OL, I think a true and legitimate #1 WR is the missing ingredient.

Willie Snead was just below the requisite level of WR play we needed from our #3 option to get it done. Could we win a SB with a Marvin Jones or Sammy Watkins? I think we could, if the rest of the team is strong enough- as the Eagles and Giants show. However the margin for error becomes more and more slim. Robinson, Hollywood, and Andrews would all be like 1a, 1b, 1c caliber targets and each game- someone would feast and open things up for the rest of the guys. Very few secondaries- outside of the Ravens, Patriots (when healthy), and the Rams could handle such an overall unit of that caliber IMO.

Edited February 20, 2021 by diamondbull424

[diamondbull424]

^^^^^ That said, I’m sure most of that is redundant because you’re already in the WR camp.

I’m also not suggesting that a separating option isn’t ideal. My biggest thing with a WR is catch radius. I think Lamar’s less than ideal ball placement is his biggest weakness that is needed to protect.

I think he will learn to target guys in specific ways and guys that can get awesome separation, I do agree, are probably MORE ideal than the guys that don’t... however, I think he best pairs with guys who can make the quick adjustments in flight.

Boykin is a nice 50/50 guy that with a specific QB could probably have success in this league. But his adjustments are slow, he’s a slow processor. So the QB has to adjust to him vs the other way around. A guy like Julio Jones doesn’t have that problem (or didn’t at least, who knows when age will strike hard). Allen Robinson doesn’t have that problem. Lamar doesn’t have the ball placement to consistently put Boykin in the best positions to win. He’ll get it to the general area and he’s dependent upon his receiver to make that throw “look good” on enough occasions, but he can make all the throws (in a non-monsoon). 

So whichever WR we get, however he separates, I think the absolute #1 skillset he needs will be a wide catch radius... it’s honestly why I think Kyle Pitts might be the most ideal receiver for Lamar in this draft... because I’ve never seen a catch radius quite as large as with Pitts. Whether the ball is placed low or extremely high, it doesn’t matter... and Lamar will protect Pitts far more than Trask did at Florida. It’d be a match made in heaven scenario... even if I love DeVonta Smith more as a complete receiver. I do agree that separation skills are probably the second most critical skill.

Edited February 20, 2021 by diamondbull424

[DreamKid]

@diamondbull424 Don't think there's really anything we can add to this one. We both laid out our view points and likely vacuumed up any other prospective notes another poster would've dropped 😅. All that's left is to see how EDC feels on the matter.

In the end as you mentioned, I think Robinson gets tagged. Doesn't seem like Godwin is going anywhere either. So Golladay and Davis probably end up as top dogs in FA. Some other wildcards out there too like Fuller, Watkins, etc. Ultimately don't see Decosta being motivated to win any bidding wars on the Tier 2 guys. 

I think the draft is where we'll get our boost at WR and I'm not sleeping on us booting a pick for a guy like DJ Moore either. 

[DreamKid]

5 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

even if I love DeVonta Smith more as a complete receiver.

You've been on him since last year. Proclaimed him as the best of the Bama bunch back then.

[diamondbull424]

1 minute ago, DreamKid said:

@diamondbull424 Don't think there's really anything we can add to this one. We both laid out our view points and likely vacuumed up any other prospective notes another poster would've dropped 😅. All that's left is to see how EDC feels on the matter.

In the end as you mentioned, I think Robinson gets tagged. Doesn't seem like Godwin is going anywhere either. So Golladay and Davis probably end up as top dogs in FA. Some other wildcards out there too like Fuller, Watkins, etc. Ultimately don't see Decosta being motivated to win any bidding wars on the Tier 2 guys. 

I think the draft is where we'll get our boost at WR and I'm not sleeping on us booting a pick for a guy like DJ Moore either. 

Agreed. I think the prospects of us acquiring Allen Robinson declined significantly when the idea of the franchise tag became added into the equation. I certainly think EDC would’ve paid him, no question. But losing premium resources in the process? Unlikely.

The only way I could MAYBE see us making a move for a franchised Allen Robinson, is if somehow Chicago was able to acquire a QB without offering up their 1st round pick and did a deal of Brown Jr and pick 169 (5th) for Robinson and pick 20... which would value Robinson at roughly the same value as Stefon Diggs last season (800-850 draft value points) and Brown Jr at roughly the 1600 draft value points that I believe he should appropriately be valued at.

But, even then, considering my opinion of this draft class from both the talent/depth at WR as well as the talent/depth at the OL positions... I might prefer a deal where we keep our 5th, keep the additional cap space (for other impact options), and accumulate such value outside of such a maneuver.

For example, I love Allen Robinson, but which scenario looks more attractive:

Scenario 1:
Allen Robinson
* Von Miller (mid tier FA)
Rashawn Slater (pick 20)

Scenario 2:
* Von Miller (mid tier)
Corey Linsley (mid tier)
Rick Wagner (low-mid tier)
Rashod Bateman (pick 25)
Wyatt Davis (pick 33)
Darius Stills (pick 169)

* Obviously the the above assumes that Miller’s team option isn’t picked up and he hits FA.
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I love Robinson, but I don’t think he would present enough of an impact difference to offset the added value supplied by the additional draft pick as well the additional cap flexibility to fit in another two mid tier option signings in.

As a FA option, I think sacrificing Wagner and either Miller or Linsley, could be offset by a strong draft and thus present a more sure bet at answering the WR problem then a draft pick that holds the same chance of being a pro bowler (30%) as being a draft bust (30%). Considering our organizations history at WR, it wouldn’t shock me if our draft bust rates are far higher than that (granted under Ozzie at GM, but still EDC was there for the ride). Whereas the chances of this organization picking and developing an OL in the top two rounds into a PB talent is likely even higher than the 37-42% chance allotted for such a player.

So I’m far more willing to go all in at WR in FA and go all in with OL in the draft than vice versa. But trading for Robinson with our best value asset (Brown Jr) would probably be a little too “all in” for my blood.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

You've been on him since last year. Proclaimed him as the best of the Bama bunch back then.

Absolutely. And I constantly go back and forth within my mind as to if I think Lamar would benefit more from Smith or Pitts. In either case I think fair durability questions will persist, both have very thin frames for what they will be asked to do.

Smith seems to have the superior hands and definitely the superior separation ability, but man... Kyle Pitts catch radius is something truly special to behold. This might be recency bias talking, but I think his catch radius might be even better than Calvin Johnson’s. He’s not the better receiver... but then again, Calvin Johnson was a year and 1 month older as a draft prospect. EDIT: And Kyle Pitts with a year within the lab working with our newly added and respected WR/pass game coaches on his route running... could be the closest thing we’ve seen to Megatron. Like his NFL nickname would be predestined as another Transformer of some kind. I know Richard Sherman nicknamed himself Optimus Prime, so maybe Pitts would have to settle for Galvatron or steal the Optimus Prime moniker from Sherman... who won’t be needing it any longer.

I love Smith, but I also love Pitts. I’d need to pick pedals off a daisy to determine which I find as the more appealing option. Either dropping for us to acquire would be a dream scenario.

Edited February 20, 2021 by diamondbull424