Journey to Ring 3: Club Evaluation & Building Another Champion

[baltimoreRebel]

38 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

Thought these numbers were interesting-

2020 Yannick Ngakoue  Age: 25  Pressures: 48  Pressure %: 11.9  TFL: 4  FF: 4  

2020 Za'Darius Smith  Age: 28   Pressures: 46  Pressure %: 9.4  TFL: 4  FF: 4  

(Data from SIS)

From a pure pass rushing totals perspective, Yanny had a stronger 2020 than ZDS according to this data. Now Smith does see more double teams. A high end average would be like 4-6 more double team looks on pass rushing reps per game. And ZDS rushes on the interior as well, but you get my point. Ngakoue also had to play for two new defenses in 2020. And on that note while his total pressure rate for 2020 was 11.9, his pressure rate based only on his play with the Ravens was 13.6%. Which matches his all time high in 2017 for Jags when he had 12 Sacks on a 2.9% PRS-SCK conversion rate.

Ngakoue has been one of the most productive EDGE players league wide since he was drafted in 2016 and seems to gel with our system. Meaning if we extended him he'd probably put up good-great numbers and top out over 10 Sacks a couple of times. And that's not factoring in any of the logical progression and steps forward his game could take with him as an ascending talent at 25 Y/O.

Here's the issue and the point EDC creeped on earlier in the offseason. If you removed Yannick from our defense in all of his games with us in 2020- how much would really be changed? Smart guess is.. next to nothing. No result would be flipped or even big changes in the final scores would occur. Now that's not because Yanny is an insignificant player, it's because even a great lone EDGE player can't affect the outcome of games the same way a high end coverage infrastructure and sound defensive scheme can.

Ngakoue and other outside rushers are boost players. An average pass rusher could get you 1-2 pressures per game, a good pass rusher could get you 3-4 pressures per game, and an elite pass rusher could get you 5-6 pressures per game. It seems like such a small difference, but it isn't. The Steelers averaged the most passes per game in 2020 with 42.6 per game and we averaged the least with 25.9 per game. Say you have 4 average pass rushers in your sub packages, that unit likely only has the potential to get you around 8 pressures in a game if they're having a great day. 8 pressures on 35 drop backs means you're looking at QB being able to calmly operate his game on close to 70% of pass plays. In other words, if said QB isn't terrible or totally without weapons- you're probably going to lose the game. Take that same scenario, but flip it to 4 elite pass rushers feasting instead. All of a sudden you're looking at 24 pressures on 35 drop backs and the percentages almost flip to the QB only having around 30% of his drop backs pressure free.

It comes down to how much are you willing to pay to build a front capable of generating more total pressure. And that's weighed against the actual opportunity level of creating said pressure and needs elsewhere. It's not always possible for an EDGE player to actually get to the QB, no matter how good they are. If a QB is getting the ball out before 2.5 seconds routinely, an outside rusher is going to have a quiet game. And that's a tactic frequently used against our defense because of Wink's blitz heavy scheme designed to create free rushers. 

This is the base dilemma for Eric DeCosta. Giving Yannick Ngakoue a 4 Year extension that covers the rest of his 20s(26YO,27YO,28YO,29YO) is a good sound building block towards an upper end 4 man pass rush front that can generate pressure in our sub packages. Joining him would be Calais Campbell short term and Justin Madubuike short + long term. However a high end front is a luxury while a high end coverage unit is a necessity. And you get more out of your investment along the front, the more you add talent to it's ranks. So that potential front is a luxury up against foundational necessities along the offensive line, more talented pass catchers, another back end option(Safety), etc. And the lower the collective talent level across the defensive line is, the lower the overall impact we can expect is. Similar to offensive line in some respects, but the OL doesn't have a coverage unit to buoy it despite a lack of plus play. 

Will be super interesting to see which direction EDC goes. 

Awesome post, brother. 

[drd23]

Just to add to the stats that show that Ngakoue was more productive than most might think

https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/true-sack-rate-tsr-a-film-project-659

This is a table created by Brandon Thorne, who is one of the main guys on Twitter that focus on line play. Sack Score is a thing he made up that adds up the scores he provides to various types of sacks as you can see in the columns "Rare High Quality" (beat a very good to elite OT 1-on-1) to "Clean-up"

[DreamKid]

I assume Brian has calculated Brown's salary bump into his estimates of roughly $15M in cap space(factoring in ERFA/RFA tenders) should the cap hit around $180M as some are expecting. If the bump in salary doesn't then also rise his dead cap hit, we would stand to gain a little over $3M in space by trading him then correct? And Brian has also indicated we could and likely will free up additional space with some contract maneuvering that would include a Ronnie Stanley restructure to the tune of $5M+.

Take away the money needed to sign our Rookies, the wiggle room you want to carry into a season, some of our annual cheap Vet deals(McPhee, Ward, etc), and we could be looking at around what $14-15M pure splurge money? That's not terrible.

 

[coordinator0]

7 hours ago, drd23 said:

Just to add to the stats that show that Ngakoue was more productive than most might think

https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/true-sack-rate-tsr-a-film-project-659

This is a table created by Brandon Thorne, who is one of the main guys on Twitter that focus on line play. Sack Score is a thing he made up that adds up the scores he provides to various types of sacks as you can see in the columns "Rare High Quality" (beat a very good to elite OT 1-on-1) to "Clean-up"

Nestled in that article:

Quote

Players with zero HQ sacks and at least 50% of snaps played: Tanoh Kpassagnon (67%), Jerry Hughes (59%), Dante Fowler (56%), & Tyus Bowser (51%).

 

[DreamKid]

42 minutes ago, coordinator0 said:

Nestled in that article:

Quote

Players with zero HQ sacks and at least 50% of snaps played: Tanoh Kpassagnon (67%), Jerry Hughes (59%), Dante Fowler (56%), & Tyus Bowser (51%).

I saw that too. It isn't really a blemish on Bowser the same way it is the other guys though. He's only above 50% of snaps played because of his coverage reps, in terms of pass rush opportunity he's got 100-150 less rushes than those guys. It's somewhat misleading to include him on there. 

What happened to Dante Fowler? Christ did his numbers take a hit in 2020. I guess playing next to Grady Jarrett doesn't open up things as much as playing next to Aaron Donald did. 

[coordinator0]

34 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

I saw that too. It isn't really a blemish on Bowser the same way it is the other guys though. He's only above 50% of snaps played because of his coverage reps, in terms of pass rush opportunity he's got 100-150 less rushes than those guys. It's somewhat misleading to include him on there. 

What happened to Dante Fowler? Christ did his numbers take a hit in 2020. I guess playing next to Grady Jarrett doesn't open up things as much as playing next to Aaron Donald did. 

Yep. Just something else to add to the convoluted mess that Baltimore's EDGE situation is in. The only thing that's certain is what they had wasn't good enough. Especially with how much the team blitzed. 

[diamondbull424]

This has been some fire reading; excellent points there @DreamKid and @coordinator0.

[DontTazeMeBro]

Bowser finished his rookie contract. Didn’t even have the big contract year guys have to trick teams in free agency. He’s a bust.

[DreamKid]

26 minutes ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

Bowser finished his rookie contract. Didn’t even have the big contract year guys have to trick teams in free agency. He’s a bust.

Bowser was literally the best coverage OLB in the league last year- no debate, and paired that with 32 pressures on a 14.4% pressure rate. All from a rotational role. There's not a FO in the league that would call him a bust. And every analyst that follows the Ravens wants to see him resigned, even those who previously doubted him. Turning pick #47 into a starting caliber SAM LB with plus potential is exactly what we intended when we picked Bowser, and that's what happened. Exact opposite situation of a busted pick.

If anything we should be upset with the coaching staff for stalling his development and waiting too long to give him significant snaps. 

[DreamKid]

Our HBs could really set the league on fire next year. Especially if Justice Hill emerges. Dobbins in Year 2, Gus Bus trying to earn a massive contract elsewhere, and Hill getting his shot. Should be a very exciting part of our team. 

I think we have a decent shot at being the first team to ever have three 1,000 Yard rushers too. 

Last year Lamar had 1005, Dobbins had 805, and Edwards 723. With Mark Ingram out of the picture now, it's really not inconceivable that we achieve the feat. 

[DreamKid]

 

[DreamKid]

General questions for the forum-

What's the minimum investment we should accept from the FO at the WR position this offseason?

Or, what's the exact level of investment you're looking for us to make?

And how much improvement would you have to see at our other need areas to placate you, should we end up devoting our resources elsewhere? Like would you accept our only additions to the WR core being mid-round options, as per tradition, if our line, pass rush, etc are on paper totally fortified?  

 

[wackywabbit]

19 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

Or, what's the exact level of investment you're looking for us to make?

Allen Robinson

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

What's the minimum investment we should accept from the FO at the WR position this offseason?

I combine WR/TE into a category. So minimum investment? A second round pick IMO. Whether that’s Atlanta switching plans and trading Julio for a 2nd or us selecting someone like Pat Freiermuth, Terrace Marshall, etc.

1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

Or, what's the exact level of investment you're looking for us to make?

Exact level? 1st round pick caliber investment. Whether that’s signing a free agent like Allen Robinson to a DeAndre Hopkins level deal OR investing in a Kyle Pitts and/or Rashod Bateman.

1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

And how much improvement would you have to see at our other need areas to placate you, should we end up devoting our resources elsewhere? Like would you accept our only additions to the WR core being mid-round options, as per tradition, if our line, pass rush, etc are on paper totally fortified?

If for some reason we can’t go WR early then it would require all the picks to be for players that are personal favorites at their positions.

For example the Orlando Brown deal is done with the Jags for 25, 45, 2022 2nd. Between 25 and 27 we miss out on Bateman. So drafting BPA could carry us to Teven Jenkins (PB potential RT), Joseph Ossai (PB potential edge).

Then in the 2nd round, Creed Humphrey (PB potential C) is a likely BPA option and another favorite. Richie Grant is a favorite at safety and another BPA option IMO.

So our top 2 rounds would have to look like that almost to a T, where we pretty much hit on and address all of our top needs outside of WR with players I deem to be personal favorites. Guys I feel can be immediate contributors and have significant upside with high floors.

... but even then, I’d want an investment in the 3rd round with a Brevin Jordan or Dyami Brown. With another addition in the 4th round to play the LOAs with the position, considering we won’t be providing it with a lower bust proof option. Perhaps someone like Dwayne Eskridge or Tylan Wallace in the 4th. Something like this could placate.

[DreamKid]

10 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Perhaps someone like Dwayne Eskridge or Tylan Wallace in the 4th.

I think Eskridge has ascended comfortably to 2nd Round Territory. I see this Top 5 quite frequently now-

1. Ja'Marr Chase

2. DeVonta Smith

3. Jaylen Waddle

4. Rashod Bateman

5. D'Wayne Eskridge 

His hype will only grow after he drops his 40 time too, I'm sure.