Journey to Ring 3: Club Evaluation & Building Another Champion

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Seriously, how do you guys expect me to read through all of this?!

[SalvadorsDeli]

24 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

This is where the disconnect is between our opinions, I think. I just fundamentally disagree with this notion that the Ravens' history suggests when we have legit WR1s producing like legit WR1s we're at our best.

We won playoff game after playoff game with Derrick Mason as our go-to, #1 WR. The most yards he ever put up in a season in which we won a playoff game was 1,037. 

Think you're selling Mason short here. He was an elite route runner/possession receiver. Put him on a higher volume passing team and he would have been considered on the same level as guys like Wes Welker or Reggie Wayne. I'm less hung up on the volume stats here than the ability. Joe had a guy he could trust with 100% certainty. That's a really valuable thing. 

And anyways that was 12 years ago. Game has changed a lot since then. If we're trying to build a team the same way we did back then we've already lost. 

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The most yards Anquan Boldin ever put up for us in a season was 921. But then he went god-mode in the playoffs.

And that last part is the only part that really matters. We already know that we can make the playoffs without a dominant or consistent passing game. But when push comes to shove you need those playmakers to make a run in January. Boldin wasn't the difference between being a 6-10 team and a 12-4 team. But he was the difference between being a 11-5 team that loses in wild card or divisional round vs. making a championship run. He was a WR1 when called upon. 

"You shouldn't start with building your team around a WR" is a fine philosophy. But we've already built the rest of the team for the most part. Now it's about finding ways to get over the hump. This level of opposition to the basic idea that better players help us more than worse players just feels like dogmatic at a certain point. As long as Lamar is healthy we're going to be sleepwalk into the playoffs virtually every year even with stiffs around him. Now it's about putting pieces around him that make him better rather than the other way around. 
 

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The way those WRs produced for us in those seasons are a lot closer to a Marvin Jones-type season, production-wise, than a typical Allen Robinson and Kenny Golladay season. That's just the reality of the situation.

No one is saying, I don't think, that we don't need better production and more timely performances out of our WR group (whoever that may be) next year. The point I'm making is that we don't need a 1600 yard-type like Robinson or Golladay in order for that to happen. And our history - like you alluded to - suggests that.

 

You're talking about production. I'm talking about ability. The raw numbers say Marvin Jones is the same as those guys because he can put up 800-1000 yards a year in high volume, low-stakes garbage time offenses. It doesn't mean he's actually on the same level as a player. If Golladay or Robinson or whoever walks through our door they're not going to put up 1,600 yards nor should anyone expect them to be. That's not what our offense is, particularly in the regular season. That doesn't mean their impact wouldn't be much greater in terms of how they change the way we're defended, open things up for their teammates, and help improve and settle Lamar as a passer. Allen Robinson doesn't need to be a 1,600 yard receiver to be worth it. The difference in quality and abillity is felt in the big games that we need to be able to win and fundamentally are not able to win at the moment.

Edited January 27, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[coordinator0]

12 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Seriously, how do you guys expect me to read through all of this?!

Substance. Not hot takes. Keep the novels coming everyone. 

[Ray Reed]

1 hour ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Think you're selling Mason short here. He was an elite route runner/possession receiver. Put him on a higher volume passing team and he would have been considered on the same level as guys like Wes Welker or Reggie Wayne. I'm less hung up on the volume stats here than the ability. Joe had a guy he could trust with 100% certainty. That's a really valuable thing. 

And anyways that was 12 years ago. Game has changed a lot since then. If we're trying to build a team the same way we did back then we've already lost. 

And that last part is the only part that really matters. We already know that we can make the playoffs without a dominant or consistent passing game. But when push comes to shove you need those playmakers to make a run in January. Boldin wasn't the difference between being a 6-10 team and a 12-4 team. But he was the difference between being a 11-5 team that loses in wild card or divisional round vs. making a championship run. He was a WR1 when called upon. 

"You shouldn't start with building your team around a WR" is a fine philosophy. But we've already built the rest of the team for the most part. Now it's about finding ways to get over the hump. This level of opposition to the basic idea that better players help us more than worse players just feels like dogmatic at a certain point. As long as Lamar is healthy we're going to be sleepwalk into the playoffs virtually every year even with stiffs around him. Now it's about putting pieces around him that make him better rather than the other way around. 
 

You're talking about production. I'm talking about ability. The raw numbers say Marvin Jones is the same as those guys because he can put up 800-1000 yards a year in high volume, low-stakes garbage time offenses. It doesn't mean he's actually on the same level as a player. If Golladay or Robinson or whoever walks through our door they're not going to put up 1,600 yards nor should anyone expect them to be. That's not what our offense is, particularly in the regular season. That doesn't mean their impact wouldn't be much greater in terms of how they change the way we're defended, open things up for their teammates, and help improve and settle Lamar as a passer. Allen Robinson doesn't need to be a 1,600 yard receiver to be worth it. The difference in quality and abillity is felt in the big games that we need to be able to win and fundamentally are not able to win at the moment.

A lot of this kind of goes along with the point I'm trying to make, though.

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And anyways that was 12 years ago. Game has changed a lot since then. If we're trying to build a team the same way we did back then we've already lost. 

The game has changed. No argument there. But take a look around the league and see what the big time, bonafide WR1s are doing when it comes to getting their teams over the hump...it's really not that significant when it comes to that final added playoff boost that you're mentioning.

Mike Thomas and the Saints blow it in the playoffs every year. 

Davante Adams and the Packers do too. 

Julio doesn't make the playoffs more often than not and they've made one run with him and lost. That story will likely continue with Ridley for the next decade.

The Seahawks have seemingly gotten worse going from that trio of under the radar guys to a more DK Metcalf-centric passing game. The Browns got better as a team and as a passing offense after Odell got hurt.

Who was the 49ers stud WR1 last year when their offense was dominant? A TE. 

Brady was throwing to a 30+ year old Edelman every year in the 2nd half of that dynasty.

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But when push comes to shove you need those playmakers to make a run in January.

Completely agree with this, and that's kind of my point. You need WRs to make timely plays in big moments in the playoffs. As Ravens fans we've seen that those guys don't have to be the 1400 yards a year-type dudes. Guys like Boldin and Mason in the past did that for us consistently and weren't the $20mil a year, big-time name WRs that you're championing the Ravens to go and get. And as NFL fans we're seeing those same $20m a year guys NOT help their current teams get over the hump in the playoffs year in and year out.

I'm not saying "it's better to have worse WRs than better ones". I think that's a gross simplification of what I'm saying here. I'm simply saying that that $20m WR type you're advocating for isn't the only way to have the passing game improve to get to where they need to be (i.e. make the big plays in the big games), and a lot of the times around the league the teams with those guys on it are still failing to do it in the big moments. That's just football. Only 1 team every year doesn't look back at something and say "man we really need ___ to get us over that hump".

You've been posting on here for a long time and for a lot of that time (I've been around since 05) you've wanted the Ravens to have that legit #1WR that is seen as a top-end of the league type, so I get that it's probably doubly frustrating for you as a fan that we continually don't go and get that guy. I feel like at some point you may just have to have a cathartic post and just come out and yell "I want the Ravens to go get an awesome WR1 because that will be fun as hell to watch and much more entertaining as a fan and we've never had that", haha. And I don't even disagree. That would be sick. But I just disagree with what seems to be an attempt to kind of over-logic this historical and league-wide point to fit your emotional want of a sick WR where you're trying to backwards map + deduce that we somehow NEED that bonafide #1 guy to get over the hump and anything else we try and do is just doomed and putting bandaids over a leaking ship because despite anything this team could ever do to improve, its all for not, and we'll never win without THE guy at WR.

We'll see how it all plays out and I think both of us agree that we just want this team to get better in the big moments. If we had more cap space I'd be advocating for that prime-time WR1 just like you. But I feel like that's a luxury, and not something we absolutely need to get our passing game up to par for the big games (based on our history and what's going on right now around the league), and right now the OL and potentially EDGE is too shaky for me to spend 85% of our $ on a luxury.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Ray Reed

[SalvadorsDeli]

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

A lot of this kind of goes along with the point I'm trying to make, though.

The game has changed. No argument there. But take a look around the league and see what the big time, bonafide WR1s are doing when it comes to getting their teams over the hump...it's really not that significant when it comes to that final added playoff boost that you're mentioning.

Mike Thomas and the Saints blow it in the playoffs every year. 

Davante Adams and the Packers do too. 

Julio doesn't make the playoffs more often than not and they've made one run with him and lost.

The Seahawks have seemingly gotten worse going from that trio of under the radar guys to a more DK Metcalf-centric passing game. The Browns got better as a team and as a passing offense after Odell got hurt.

Who was the 49ers stud WR1 last year when their offense was dominant? A TE. 

Brady was throwing to a 30+ year old Edelman every year in the 2nd half of that dynasty.

There's more than one way to skin a cat, sure. But none of that means that bringing in the best pass-catchers isn't one of the most straightforward ways to improve our passing game from here. In other contexts that's been our entire philosophy: secure elite talents while recognizing who is replaceable. When it comes to WR we seem to have the conversations backwards. From an efficiency standpoint or measuring value against the dollar, I'd argue we'd get more of it out of going for broke rather than shopping in the middle tiers. 

I find the practice of looking at teams that have elite WR's that aren't winning championships and then saying, "see, it doesn't work!" to be strange, and it's something I see all the time. Why isn't that done for other positions? The Rams traded the farm for Jalen Ramsey and haven't won anything since. Does that mean CB's are overvalued? The Colts have the best guard in the game but went 1 and done. Does that building a great offensive line is overrated? Of course not. 

I think it gets blown up with WR's in particular because Brady and Belichek sort of broke everyone's brains and convinced people that it's just a luxury position. instead of recognizing that having a GOAT QB and GOAT coach just sort of lets you take shortcuts in team-building that no one else can. Most years the teams that challenged the Pats the hardest were teams that had the weapons to keep up with Brady though. The same principle goes for competing with the Chiefs and Mahomes. And then even to the Brady example... look at what happened for him when he went from a team with no weapons to Tampa w/ Mike Evans and Godwin! 

In any case, Lamar is decidedly not the GOAT passer, and needs more help around him than Brady needs.  
 

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Completely agree with this, and that's kind of my point. You need WRs to make timely plays in big moments in the playoffs. As Ravens fans we've seen that those guys don't have to be the 1400 yards a year-type dudes. Guys like Boldin and Mason in the past did that for us consistently and weren't the $20mil a year, big-time name WRs that you're championing the Ravens to go and get. And as NFL fans we're seeing those same $20m a year guys NOT help their current teams get over the hump in the playoffs year in and year out.

I think there's just disagreement over who can be that guy. For me, Boldin was a WR1 for us who just happened to play in an offense where that wasn't always put on display. Same with Steve Smith. A little less so for Mason but then again even the 08/09 teams that made the playoffs did not have a championship caliber offense in part for that reason (though it had more to do with where Joe was in his own development). I think we need a guy like that to win a champioship. Marvin Jones can make us better, but he's not that. Maybe Hollywood develops further and becomes that guy to the point where we actually do just need complimentary pieces, but I'm not super convinced and I think he's better treated as a really good complimentary piece. 

My fixation on WR at this point is pretty simple. We have a unique opportunity with Lamar. It's something that most teams never get. It's a very good thing that our organization realized he was a different kind of player and needed to be treated as such. But it feels like that thinking is becoming so warped that we're starting to justify just not trying as hard at being our best at moving the ball through the air. 

The margin for error for winning a title predominantly leaning on a dominant running and defense is so slim that it doesn't make sense not to be the most multi-dimensional version of ourselves. There are so many guys on our offense for whom Lamar makes better or makes life easier for. When it comes to building around him, I think it's a huge mistake to cut corners on either of the 2 most direct ways that most directly support him and help make him a better version of himself - pass-catching and offensive line. The organization seems to wholeheartedly agree on the 2nd part of that but truly does not seem to have the same urgency when it comes to his receiving weapons, and I think we're selling both Lamar short as well as the team's potential as long as we do that. None of that is meant to let Lamar off the hook for the obvious ways he needs to improve, but I think hiding behind those flaws to justify not giving him the sort of running mates he deserves is just sort of pre-emptively admitting defeat. 

So yeah, Corey Davis will make us better. Marvin Jones will make us better. There's basically nowhere to go but up when it comes to our wideouts. But am I going to pretend that bringing those guys in instead of going for broke with a bonafide WR1 isn't leaving a big opportunity on the table? No. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[diamondbull424]

4 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Seriously, how do you guys expect me to read through all of this?!

With glasses on while dipping Oreos into a glass of cold milk (almond or cow, whichever your choice).🤓

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

So yeah, Corey Davis will make us better. Marvin Jones will make us better. There's basically nowhere to go but up when it comes to our wideouts. But am I going to pretend that bringing those guys in instead of going for broke with a bonafide WR1 isn't leaving a big opportunity on the table? No. 

I think this line is absolutely the biggest thing. Adding those guys would improve our WR core but they’re not guys that can takeover a game. They’re not guys that show up and show out in the postseason.

This isn’t about team building, this is now about maximizing Lamar on his rookie deal.

I agree with both sides but mainly fall in this category. Lamar as well as Andrews/Hollywood needs a next level piece. I’m not sure if an Ertz was just hurt and aged out or if he can return to a high level. I’m not sure if Julio won’t fall apart, but looking at ways to improve our WR core will be critical.

I’m not particularly willing to give up a 1st in doing so, but I’d give up three conditional 2nd round picks to secure Julio. Getting a leader for this offense that has shown playoff busting ability would be critical. We’ve seen the aftereffects of how Alabama became WR U after Julio’s influence. We’ve seen how a guy like Eric Weddle’s habits have sparked better safety play from the younger options.

I don’t think this is just about guys who can produce but guys who can make supreme impact. Corey Davis has produced and shrunk in the playoffs, he’s not getting us over the hump unless he comes at a near dirt level price.
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That said I do feel confident that EDC will explore every avenue to improve the WR core. He double dipped with a 1st and 3rd with guys who have athleticism and traits to best solve the position. And while he acknowledged the cap limitations and the ET decision limiting their ability to cultivate a plan, he did say they will look to explore many ways to improving that area.

If I were a betting man, I think working out a deal with Atlanta for Julio will be on the horizon. Veteran that can have a Calais Campbell/Mark Ingram level impact to our pass game. We wouldn’t be on the hook for his bonus money and thus his 11m cap hits are quite affordable to incorporate even within our current cap constraints (especially with a few restructure deals activated).

The Falcons are cash strapped and in position to get a new QB for a rebuild, keeping Ridley and trading Julio and Ryan to the highest bidders would the best plan for building up the future of that team. I can’t see many teams being better positioned and more motivated to attack Julio than ours and their won’t be a Thomas Dimitroff that’s overly attached to Julio making the price unimaginable. I think two conditional 2nds could get it done and I think of the teams with a young established QB trying to maximize his rookie deal, we’re one of the few that don’t already have that #1 option type at WR.

And the teams with the veteran QBs all mostly have those guys as well. I think that could give us an advantage in negotiations.

[SalvadorsDeli]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

If I were a betting man, I think working out a deal with Atlanta for Julio will be on the horizon. Veteran that can have a Calais Campbell/Mark Ingram level impact to our pass game. We wouldn’t be on the hook for his bonus money and thus his 11m cap hits are quite affordable to incorporate even within our current cap constraints (especially with a few restructure deals activated).

The Falcons are cash strapped and in position to get a new QB for a rebuild, keeping Ridley and trading Julio and Ryan to the highest bidders would the best plan for building up the future of that team. I can’t see many teams being better positioned and more motivated to attack Julio than ours and their won’t be a Thomas Dimitroff that’s overly attached to Julio making the price unimaginable. I think two conditional 2nds could get it done and I think of the teams with a young established QB trying to maximize his rookie deal, we’re one of the few that don’t already have that #1 option type at WR.

And the teams with the veteran QBs all mostly have those guys as well. I think that could give us an advantage in negotiations.

FWIW I think trading for Julio feels like the most 'Ravens' way of addressing the WR issue. Veteran star on the decline who still has something left in the tank for a short-term window. Would be cheaper contract-wise than the top tier FA's. Strong character/leadership qualities as well and super hungry for a ring. Would be very similar to the Boldin trade in that respect, with the difference basically being that he's a little older but also a higher caliber player. 

Corey Davis feels like the most likely FA target to me, and while I'd take it over nothing, he's a player that definitel makes me nervous. The blocking ability is going to be a big draw for us I bet but he didn't really break out till his contract year and benefitted a lot from playing alongside budding superstar AJ Brown drawing coverage and attention. Abysmal playoff track record including a duck against us this year. Also seemed to be a guy who always has some niggling injury issue or another. Maybe he's just one of those guys who took longer to put it all together but some definite red flags in his resume in terms of trying to game out who the FA busts are going to be.

[santiagomn8]

I believe we definitely need to add a receiver either in the draft (early rounds) or free agency, but how we go about it is key. In my opinion paying a mid tier wide receiver makes no sense especially in this day in age when they are coming out of college by the boat load. Now I understand the Ravens haven't been the best at drafting wide receivers but that doesn't mean you give up. I think if we go the free agency route we have to either get a true #1 wide receiver ala Allen Robinson or a real bargain deal if it presents itself maybe a 1 year prove it deal type deal. If those options aren't realistic then we draft another wide receiver in the early rounds and continue to try to develop them along side Brown, Duvernay, Boykin, Porsche. I rather we resign Bowser, Wolfe, Ngakoue (if possible) Mcphee, Ward and obviously the RFA and ERFA we want to keep. Go into the draft see what happens which hopefully we are able to get a WO, C/G, Pass Rusher, DL, CB, OT. Then we play the waiting game to see what player get cut. With the salary cap of a lot of teams there will be some good players being released or potentially up for trade and that's when Decosta swoops in.

[diamondbull424]

4 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Corey Davis feels like the most likely FA target to me, and while I'd take it over nothing, he's a player that definitel makes me nervous. The blocking ability is going to be a big draw for us I bet but he didn't really break out till his contract year and benefitted a lot from playing alongside budding superstar AJ Brown drawing coverage and attention. Abysmal playoff track record including a duck against us this year. Also seemed to be a guy who always has some niggling injury issue or another. Maybe he's just one of those guys who took longer to put it all together but some definite red flags in his resume in terms of trying to game out who the FA busts are going to be.

I agree about everything you’ve mentioned here about Corey Davis in terms of the red flags.

That said if I had to pick our most likely FA acquisition at WR it’d be Sammy Watkins. He has a relationship with Greg Roman. His most productive season of his career came in 2015 with Roman as his OC.

Watkins has shown to be a very willing blocker, he’s shown to sacrifice his ego for the good of the team. He’s been a part of potentially 2 SB winning teams as well.

I think he gets paid less than Davis and while Davis has had better showings in the regular season overall, Watkins has shown a far more explosive  playoff resume. He’ll still only be 28 this upcoming season as well and would bring enough speed and boundary ability that he could draw attention away from Hollywood and/or Andrews inside.

I think Davis probably has suitors where he could sign for 9-11m on a 1 year deal, while Watkins could be on the tier below that as a UFA and might agree with us to a 3 yrs/$21m deal with incentives that could have it reach as much as $27m; things like SB win, number of TDs, receptions, etc.

[baltimoreRebel]

[DreamKid]

Retaining Bowser on a 1 year deal such as this seems ideal. 1. We don't have to go into panic mode or force anything at SAM. 2. Bowser takes over all of the starter snaps at the position with Judon finally gone and either inflates his own value when reenters FA at 26 yo in 2022 or proves beyond a doubt he's worthy of an extension with us long term. Win for both sides.

 

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

Culley being hired to Houston feels like cash money for us. We get 2 3rd round picks out of it.

if we get a young hotshot or poach a college coach in here to help with the pass game and groom him to eventually be OC, we will be cooking.

[DreamKid]

 

[Ray Reed]