Journey to Ring 3: Club Evaluation & Building Another Champion

[SalvadorsDeli]

55 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The thing about Yanny is that he can't play the run, which is a major thing for our team. He's a specialist but do you wanna pay a specialist that amount of money? Idk.

Yeah and on top of that I think there's an open question as to whether you want to pay someone like a franchise cornerstone when you're not even sure he can be a real factor against the teams we're gonna have to beat in the playoffs. I know he joined midseason and gets a bit of a break but it's still pretty striking that he only 20 snaps against the Bills even though they were throwing 80% of the time. 

Pressure off the EDGE is still king against pure pocket passers but with all of the new young QB's in the AFC I don't know whether it's the same formula to beat them - against guys like Mahomes, Allen, Watson (if he stays in the conference), Herbert, and Tua if he turns out to be good, those QB's all have the legs to extend plays and break outside when the pocket collapses. Speedrushers coming off the EDGE often end up running themselves out of the play in those situations and maybe the right move might just be to ask them to play contain instead - and I don't know that you need to break the bank for that player. We've talked a lot about Judon feasts on bad teams and I wonder if the same will be true for Ngakoue if we re-sign him. Yeah against bad offensive lines and average to subpar QB's who hold on to the ball he's going to be able win his matchups and produce the way he's produced most of his career but the good ones seemingly take these guys out of the equation entirely. 

I know people will point to the Super Bowl as the counter-argument but I don't know that you can build your defensive gameplan around a perfect storm like that where Mahomes was dealing with turf toe AND their offensive line was decimated and basically down to practice squad players. 

Idk, maybe I'm overthinking it and we give Ngakoue $20 mill a year in the end. But I'm starting to talk myself into the idea that interior rush is significantly more important than outside pressure. Focus on finding more Madibuike's, develop Harrison and Queen more into gap-shooters inside. Treat Bowser more as the template at EDGE where they can play in coverage and contain/chase down when QB's try to scramble outside. 

Edited February 12, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[M.10.E]

We have like a top 3 most expensive secondary in the NFL which helps with having lesser EDGEs. If you want to spend money at EDGE, I think the money needs to come from the secondary. Our defense doesn't seem to really play towards an elite pass rusher.

I'm against breaking the bank for an EDGE unless they're elite, which none of ours are.

Edited February 12, 2021 by M.10.E

[diamondbull424]

Agreed. Also I think the ‘elite’ template for what we should be looking for in our next edge group should look like either Chandler Jones (tall, long, closing speed, and contains the pocket while getting to the passer while getting upfield, yet can impact his short passing windows) OR Von Miller (fast, explosive, coverage tool, great bend). In the 1st round guys like Joseph Ossai and Greg Rousseau would feel like obvious fits... if our needs along the OL weren’t so gaping, obviously.

So yeah Bowser definitely fits as a low end version of that Von Miller skillset.

Along the IDL note, that could definitely be a surprise 1st round pick for sure. Like @DreamKid mentioned Christian Barmore could be someone to really consider. His play in the playoffs reminded me of Trevor Pryce and with the rest of our guys upfront he could specialize as a pass rusher as a young player as he develops his run technique.

Edited February 12, 2021 by diamondbull424

[DreamKid]

51 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The thing about Yanny is that he can't play the run, which is a major thing for our team. He's a specialist but do you wanna pay a specialist that amount of money? Idk.

Za'Darius wasn't a plus player against the run either. It's hard to find guys that actually excel in both areas. IDK Honestly the entire situation at EDGE is just headache inducing. I really don't envy DeCosta this offseason.

All of this has to be factored in:

1. We have limited money, and needs elsewhere.

2. Outside Pass Rush is becoming devalued with how quickly the majority of offenses get the ball out, especially when playing us.

3. Despite the above point, AFC QBs like Mahomes and Allen are affected most when you can just rush four.

4. Ngakoue & Bowser are both 25 Y/O and still ascending talents. We really don't want to become the team that is drafting and developing EDGE pieces for other clubs. ZDS was bad enough. 

5. Wink's scheme has unique demands for our OLBs, specifically at SAM. We drop our rushers at a rate far beyond anyone else. 

6. We decimated the Titans run game with guys like Pernell McPhee and Jihad Ward, who combined didn't have a cap hit over 3 Mill. 

7. Jaylon Ferguson, from everything we've seen, appears to suck. Leaving us with no even solid/passable in house options to step up.

8. If you do want true impact from the position it'll probably take around a 1st Round investment to get it done- 

 

[SalvadorsDeli]

^^^ good summary.

Of our group of FA's I feel extremely confident that Ward and McPhee will be back on cheap deals. Bowser seems like a 50/50 call and probably just comes down to whether Jacksonville throws crazy money at him. Then theres a 20-25% chance that one of Judon and Ngakoue is back with us. 

[baltimoreRebel]

I think everyone is a little off their rocker thinking we're letting Yannick walk unless he commands some crazy number. 

I guess we're soon going to find out though. 

Edited February 12, 2021 by baltimoreRebel

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, baltimoreRebel said:

I think everyone is a little off their rocker thinking we're letting Yannick walk unless he commands some crazy number. 

I guess we're soon going to find out though. 

I wouldn’t be surprised either way. If we bring back Ngakoue under a reasonable deal I’m absolutely not against it because I think some of his impact went into speeding up the QBs internal clock. It would also put us in a spot where we don’t need to overcommit to the position in the draft.

This is probably the first offseason where I don’t feel as though things are as clear. Can’t as easily predict player values on the open market, plus a lot of guys in weird positions like that. 

[baltimoreRebel]

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised either way. If we bring back Ngakoue under a reasonable deal I’m absolutely not against it because I think some of his impact went into speeding up the QBs internal clock. It would also put us in a spot where we don’t need to overcommit to the position in the draft.

This is probably the first offseason where I don’t feel as though things are as clear. Can’t as easily predict player values on the open market, plus a lot of guys in weird positions like that. 

Going to be a lot of prove it deals and back loaded 2-3 year contracts for guys. It'll be interesting to see how teams and agents handle this cash strapped year. (Excluding the few teams who have an abundance of cap)

Edited February 13, 2021 by baltimoreRebel

[diamondbull424]

25 minutes ago, baltimoreRebel said:

Going to be a lot of prove it deals and back loaded 2-3 year contracts for guys. It'll be interesting to see how teams and agents handle this cash strapped year. (Excluding the few teams who have an abundance of cap)

Exactly. For me, money getting funny, is the biggest reason why I could see us moving on from Ngakoue.

Whether it’s the front office prioritizing answering the center position prior to the draft with targeting Corey Linsley (or along this note Brandon Scherff along the IOL).

Whether its EDC prioritizing the WR position with an aggressive move to secure Allen Robinson or some other notable WR (Julio Jones if Atlanta decides to reset the clock); that would likely remove us from resigning Ngakoue.

Whether JJ Watts’ availability as a proven front 7 impact specialist along the interior has the organization question whether they should look to invest in him.

There are many paths that they can take in team building. They could remain patient and let everyone else overspend early so that we can bring in plenty of veterans on cheap compete deals. They could be aggressive and attack the one or two guys they feel have the best chance in assisting us to get over the hump. The most likely is the former under Ozzie, but what does EDC decide to do? And how does the unique offseason influence that plan? How much does Orlando Brown Jr’s pending exodus influence any plans already established.

Very intriguing to try and predict how it will be handled. Like @DreamKid said, I certainly don’t envy EDC here. Because I honestly don’t know how I would attack it, I sort of second guess my opinions at every turn. Though I think I would probably play things out similar to Ozzie. Wait it out, sign quality vets to cheap deals, and see if someone falls into our laps. JJ Watt is very tempting, but I’m still holding out hope that Atlanta will reset with their prodigal son in Fields and then decide to trade Matt Ryan (to SF) and Julio Jones to us for a 3rd, a conditional 2022 2nd/3rd (based on games played), and a 5th.

This offseason feels like a WWF Royal Rumble (yeah I know it’s ‘WWE’ now but I’m talking about the ones back in the day.)

[Ray Reed]

There’s going to be a TON of cap casualties this offseason too that we’ll look to dip into...for a team that values comp picks as much as us, I’d be looking at players who will likely be cut from cash strapped teams just to get under the cap as our most likely FA signings 

[baltimoreRebel]

13 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Exactly. For me, money getting funny, is the biggest reason why I could see us moving on from Ngakoue.

Whether it’s the front office prioritizing answering the center position prior to the draft with targeting Corey Linsley (or along this note Brandon Scherff along the IOL).

Whether its EDC prioritizing the WR position with an aggressive move to secure Allen Robinson or some other notable WR (Julio Jones if Atlanta decides to reset the clock); that would likely remove us from resigning Ngakoue.

Whether JJ Watts’ availability as a proven front 7 impact specialist along the interior has the organization question whether they should look to invest in him.

There are many paths that they can take in team building. They could remain patient and let everyone else overspend early so that we can bring in plenty of veterans on cheap compete deals. They could be aggressive and attack the one or two guys they feel have the best chance in assisting us to get over the hump. The most likely is the former under Ozzie, but what does EDC decide to do? And how does the unique offseason influence that plan? How much does Orlando Brown Jr’s pending exodus influence any plans already established.

Very intriguing to try and predict how it will be handled. Like @DreamKid said, I certainly don’t envy EDC here. Because I honestly don’t know how I would attack it, I sort of second guess my opinions at every turn. Though I think I would probably play things out similar to Ozzie. Wait it out, sign quality vets to cheap deals, and see if someone falls into our laps. JJ Watt is very tempting, but I’m still holding out hope that Atlanta will reset with their prodigal son in Fields and then decide to trade Matt Ryan (to SF) and Julio Jones to us for a 3rd, a conditional 2022 2nd/3rd (based on games played), and a 5th.

This offseason feels like a WWF Royal Rumble (yeah I know it’s ‘WWE’ now but I’m talking about the ones back in the day.)

A big factor is also when we deal Orlando and for what. Get those ducks in a row and then attack accordingly. A guy I really want is Jason Kelce at center. 

With the offensive line play this year, I never focused in on Bozeman. Did he play well or is he a question mark too? If he is serviceable and we sign a guy like Kelce, we could attack the right side of the line. Or draft a Center and sign a guy like Thuney at RG. 

So many unknowns, you're right. It's going to take some patience and waiting for the chips to fall. 

Letting a guy like Yannick and Judon test FA is a likely scenario. If their market is soft and a guy like Yannick is only being offered 14-16 per. We can swing that. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by baltimoreRebel

[DreamKid]

2 hours ago, baltimoreRebel said:

With the offensive line play this year, I never focused in on Bozeman. Did he play well or is he a question mark too?

Bozeman was good enough to retain his job. Problem is really the right side you mentioned(Compounded if OBJ leaves) and Center. We could see three new starters on the line in 2021.

[coordinator0]

 

[DreamKid]

The drops sucked, but ultimately weren't the catalyst for us failing to winning a championship in 2020. Not even close actually. What is frustrating though is that a lot of them came by way of players who have really good hands and focus. For that reason I don't really expect it to be an issue going forward.

Roman's scheme, other failings by our WR unit, regression from Lamar, and pass blocking issues remain the truer villains. 

[DreamKid]

Thought these numbers were interesting-

2020 Yannick Ngakoue  Age: 25  Pressures: 48  Pressure %: 11.9  TFL: 4  FF: 4  

2020 Za'Darius Smith  Age: 28   Pressures: 46  Pressure %: 9.4  TFL: 4  FF: 4  

(Data from SIS)

From a pure pass rushing totals perspective, Yanny had a stronger 2020 than ZDS according to this data. Now Smith does see more double teams. A high end average would be like 4-6 more double team looks on pass rushing reps per game. And ZDS rushes on the interior as well, but you get my point. Ngakoue also had to play for two new defenses in 2020. And on that note while his total pressure rate for 2020 was 11.9, his pressure rate based only on his play with the Ravens was 13.6%. Which matches his all time high in 2017 for Jags when he had 12 Sacks on a 2.9% PRS-SCK conversion rate.

Ngakoue has been one of the most productive EDGE players league wide since he was drafted in 2016 and seems to gel with our system. Meaning if we extended him he'd probably put up good-great numbers and top out over 10 Sacks a couple of times. And that's not factoring in any of the logical progression and steps forward his game could take with him as an ascending talent at 25 Y/O.

Here's the issue and the point EDC creeped on earlier in the offseason. If you removed Yannick from our defense in all of his games with us in 2020- how much would really be changed? Smart guess is.. next to nothing. No result would be flipped or even big changes in the final scores would occur. Now that's not because Yanny is an insignificant player, it's because even a great lone EDGE player can't affect the outcome of games the same way a high end coverage infrastructure and sound defensive scheme can.

Ngakoue and other outside rushers are boost players. An average pass rusher could get you 1-2 pressures per game, a good pass rusher could get you 3-4 pressures per game, and an elite pass rusher could get you 5-6 pressures per game. It seems like such a small difference, but it isn't. The Steelers averaged the most passes per game in 2020 with 42.6 per game and we averaged the least with 25.9 per game. Say you have 4 average pass rushers in your sub packages, that unit likely only has the potential to get you around 8 pressures in a game if they're having a great day. 8 pressures on 35 drop backs means you're looking at QB being able to calmly operate his game on close to 70% of pass plays. In other words, if said QB isn't terrible or totally without weapons- you're probably going to lose the game. Take that same scenario, but flip it to 4 elite pass rushers feasting instead. All of a sudden you're looking at 24 pressures on 35 drop backs and the percentages almost flip to the QB only having around 30% of his drop backs pressure free.

It comes down to how much are you willing to pay to build a front capable of generating more total pressure. And that's weighed against the actual opportunity level of creating said pressure and needs elsewhere. It's not always possible for an EDGE player to actually get to the QB, no matter how good they are. If a QB is getting the ball out before 2.5 seconds routinely, an outside rusher is going to have a quiet game. And that's a tactic frequently used against our defense because of Wink's blitz heavy scheme designed to create free rushers. 

This is the base dilemma for Eric DeCosta. Giving Yannick Ngakoue a 4 Year extension that covers the rest of his 20s(26YO,27YO,28YO,29YO) is a good sound building block towards an upper end 4 man pass rush front that can generate pressure in our sub packages. Joining him would be Calais Campbell short term and Justin Madubuike short + long term. However a high end front is a luxury while a high end coverage unit is a necessity. And you get more out of your investment along the front, the more you add talent to it's ranks. So that potential front is a luxury up against foundational necessities along the offensive line, more talented pass catchers, another back end option(Safety), etc. And the lower the collective talent level across the defensive line is, the lower the overall impact we can expect is. Similar to offensive line in some respects, but the OL doesn't have a coverage unit to buoy it despite a lack of plus play. 

Will be super interesting to see which direction EDC goes.