jch1911 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 26 minutes ago, ny92mike said: @jch1911 @sparky151 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oLb8odIXaO5eS3wxvaZcSrr6nh-FcvVBSfrqPYTPLJc/edit#gid=1755539535 I added OTC apy value projections next to our current apy projections. If using the greater of the two values works for you guys I'll set it up. We need to get this figured out soon, still a lot to do to get this off the ground. Thanks I'm good with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 hours ago, ny92mike said: How are you coming with the apy values from PFF? Ok, I'll finish and send them to you tomorrow. I've inserted columns for contract length, AAV, and guaranteed money from their predicted contracts for their top 150 free agents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I'm finished with the PFF data. Mike, FF is saying you can't receive messages but I was asking for your email address. I saved the data in Excel but FF won't let me attach the workbook here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, sparky151 said: I'm finished with the PFF data. Mike, FF is saying you can't receive messages but I was asking for your email address. I saved the data in Excel but FF won't let me attach the workbook here. Can you email it to me? mikejefferis71@gmail.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 I emptied my inbox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Not sold on OTC numbers. I know mine isn't much better, using PFF or my own grading system, but I don't see how they are coming up with extremely high price tags for players like Easton Stick, Tyrod Taylor (watched him play and feel my value of 2.7million is inline with his value vs the 33+ million) or Nick Mullens both in the 40+ million APY range. Hoping the values @sparky151 pulled from Spotrac is better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 @sparky151 Please get me that list as soon as you can brother. I've got to get this player database done this weekend. I'm running behind on the build. Gonna make a push this weekend to get caught up but can't do much until I get the section of the build done. @RedGold Hey man, Do you think it's too early to pull the draftee list? Not sure of the date that players have to declare. Starting to panic a bit on not being further along than I am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Check out sheet 2 @jch1911 @sparky151 or anyone else that is wanting to help with this project. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kbMx-rjsdr72C-GsbVgyzvyRcRhnDVpReTZmsGZ6i38/edit?usp=sharing Set it up to easily use a check box. Green column shows the absolute difference between the two apy values. If checked it'll use the value I created (blue column) if unchecked it'll use the OTC value (yellow column). I'll plug in spotrac values when I get the workbook. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 So I'm thinking about using the same concept for determining the contract length based on the apy value being applied in extensions to the Free agency system. Using this we aren't restricted to a contract length. Previous mocks I'd set up fixed contract lengths to prevent a team from building a long term contract on the cheap. We use the greater of the two (Proj. APY vs values similar to tag amounts) I'll post these values below, which we can tinker with the values if need be. For example, S. Barkley Projected APY: 14.6 million RB Large/Average Values by contract length Top Avg. Values Contract Length $915,396 1 $2,288,491 2 $4,576,982 3 $7,628,303 4 $10,897,575 5 $13,117,150 6 $14,428,865 7 Regardless of the contract length values I'm forced to use the higher value (proj. apy or CL values). This still allows me to offer any contract length I wish but I'm forced to offer the higher amount of the two values. If you review IRL contracts the long term contracts are costly. So it still prevents us from making a low ball offer and rather than having fixed contract lengths like in previous mocks, it allows us to offer a single season or a 7 year deal. The values will still decrease after each round of bidding. I'm half asleep, so unless you guys are seeing something I'm overlooking I plan to roll with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 hours ago, ny92mike said: Not sure of the date that players have to declare. It was last month. You're clear. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch1911 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I have been trying to post from my home computer to no avail. Anyway... @ny92mike i checked the numbers and switched the ones that I thought needed switching (usually to the higher number). There were a couple of players that were REALLY low no matter what number.... somebody is going to get a bargain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGold Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 hours ago, ny92mike said: @RedGold Hey man, Do you think it's too early to pull the draftee list? Not sure of the date that players have to declare. Starting to panic a bit on not being further along than I am. I can start putting something together next week. It’s on the to do list, I just haven’t been crossing much off that list the past weeks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 hours ago, ny92mike said: Not sold on OTC numbers. I know mine isn't much better, using PFF or my own grading system, but I don't see how they are coming up with extremely high price tags for players like Easton Stick, Tyrod Taylor (watched him play and feel my value of 2.7million is inline with his value vs the 33+ million) or Nick Mullens both in the 40+ million APY range. Hoping the values @sparky151 pulled from Spotrac is better. I've just emailed the PFF contract predictions for their top 150 free agents. I think OTC says their method is proprietary but that it's based on PFF data. Not sure there is a problem with players overvaluing themselves. Their price will drop over the bidding rounds so it's just a matter of being patient if you need a backup QB. Or find a better value sooner. I'm more concerned with unrealistically low valuations. Because of anchoring bias, sealed bidding is unlikely to produce what the player will get in real life. If Brian Burns was valued at 2 mil, everyone knows he'll get more than that. But if a half dozen teams are known to be bidding on him, a GM may well decide to use a bid in round 1 on someone else. So Burns may go for 15 mil per year due to lack of bidders. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I think jch posted Spotrac numbers but if anyone is missing, I can provide them. In general, I think we should use the highest AAV from among OTC, Spotrac, and PFF as the starting point. There will be some guys who overprice themselves but the market will settle for them and they'll get bids eventually. If all 3 of those services rate a guy lower than one of our GMs, then he can be proud of finding a bargain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 14 hours ago, RedGold said: I can start putting something together next week. It’s on the to do list, I just haven’t been crossing much off that list the past weeks Thanks man....I can pull the players into the workbook, basically just need you to look it over to make sure the draftee list is correct and that I didn't miss anyone or have someone on the list that shouldn't be. I'll get you that link asap. Thanks again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.