Sam Darnold

[CKSteeler]

I'd take Minshew over Darnold and I don't care for Minshew, either. I don't see the point of getting these stop gap QB's and hoping to stay marginally competitive for a few years. Eventually, if you want to do anything you have to make your move for your franchise QB or you're going nowhere.

Darnold aint that guy. He was outplayed by the corpse of Joe Flacco last year when given the chance.

I think the best move on the QB front is to make the move next year when the team is going to have far more draft capital (the team is likely going to end up with 2 extra 3rds, a 4th and a 5th in comp picks). People talk too much about what a QB class is supposedly going to be ahead of time. You don't know who is going to break out or declare and I think this class kind of sucks, too. Lots of names, but only one guy I actually like and he's going #1. So, if the guy is there next season, you make your move. If not, you keep loading up. Post-Ben you probably end up in range to where you can at least trade up easier (though some people think that's happening in 2021, anyway).

You build your OL and run game back up this year in the draft, hope that Highsmith pans out and hope that you can retain one of either Sutton or Hilton if not both. Don't go throwing draft picks at other teams scraps.

Edited February 27, 2021 by CKSteeler

[MOSteelers56]

31 minutes ago, CKSteeler said:

You build your OL and run game back up this year in the draft, hope that Highsmith pans out and hope that you can retain one of either Sutton or Hilton if not both. Don't go throwing draft picks at other teams scraps.

I agree with this. I think a team needs to prepare for getting a rookie contract QB. Our defense will most likely still be pretty good in 2 years(I'm assuming the core of TJ, Bush, Minkah, Edmunds, Nelson, maybe Tuitt is still there). We have a young WR core, we need to build up the O-line this year, then go big for a QB in the next draft. That gives you a pretty affordable, young team. Add some high end defensive talent via FA and retain the weapons with the savings from the QB. That maximizes the window. Obviously easier said than done. 

[warfelg]

14 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I agree with this. I think a team needs to prepare for getting a rookie contract QB. Our defense will most likely still be pretty good in 2 years(I'm assuming the core of TJ, Bush, Minkah, Edmunds, Nelson, maybe Tuitt is still there). We have a young WR core, we need to build up the O-line this year, then go big for a QB in the next draft. That gives you a pretty affordable, young team. Add some high end defensive talent via FA and retain the weapons with the savings from the QB. That maximizes the window. Obviously easier said than done. 

That also requires minimal adding dead cap on 2022.  Is sounds like we won't hit the 2020 ap number again until 2024.  So that means if we extend Nelson, his cap hit has to stay low, can't do too much with Watt in terms of loading a future year, try not to create fake years with Ben and Haden if it can be helped.

[43M]

Anyone who would trade 2nd rd+ value for Darnold is delusional. Not trying to be mean, but that is absolutely ridiculous.   He was never that good to begin with and his value has depreciated significantly.  

Not completely opposed to giving him a chance, but 2nd rounder?    What the hell?

Early 4th round value, at most.

Edited March 1, 2021 by 43M

[MOSteelers56]

4 minutes ago, 43M said:

Anyone who would trade 2nd rd+ value for Darnold is delusional.  He was never that good to begin with and his value has depreciated significantly.  

Not completely opposed to giving him a chance, but 2nd rounder?    What the hell?

Early 4th round value, at most.

I think people assume they'll get a 2nd for him because of the Rosen trade. They are not equal, but I think that's why. Rosen still had a bit of unseen potential because he hadn't played much. We've got 3 years of tape for Darnold and he hasn't shown consistency. I'd love to bring him in but not for a 2nd. I'd do our 3rd at most. 

[August4th]

I want a draft pick in return if we dealt a 2nd for Darnold. A 2nd for Darnold and 4th rd pick or maybe a wentz type trade where we trade them a 4th that can turn into a 2nd if Darnold works out for us

[Dcash4]

10 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I think people assume they'll get a 2nd for him because of the Rosen trade. They are not equal, but I think that's why. Rosen still had a bit of unseen potential because he hadn't played much. We've got 3 years of tape for Darnold and he hasn't shown consistency. I'd love to bring him in but not for a 2nd. I'd do our 3rd at most. 

Rosen also was traded with 3 years of rookie deal contract control remaining with an option for a 4th. 

Darnold has been bad for 3 years. I'm not against him as reclamation project in general, I am just against the cost. The likelihood of him going from bad to All-Pro is extremely unlikely. It's more likely he goes from bad to mediocre. In that case, I'm not trading a 2nd rounder for a guy that immediately comes off his rookie deal on a second contract as a QB. If mediocre is our most likely ceiling, you are better off with a mediocre draft pick with 4-5 years of team friendly rate control. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by Dcash4

[43M]

Just now, MOSteelers56 said:

I think people assume they'll get a 2nd for him because of the Rosen trade. They are not equal, but I think that's why. Rosen still had a bit of unseen potential because he hadn't played much. We've got 3 years of tape for Darnold and he hasn't shown consistency. I'd love to bring him in but not for a 2nd. I'd do our 3rd at most. 

Rosen played one year.   Darnold has played 3.    There was definitely more upside with Rosen.

Darnold was never close to being worth a 1st overall.   Derek Carr was a better prospect and he went early 2nd.   He has 3 bad years under his belt, and while I get he hasn't been in a good situation, he hasnt shown much to be impressed by.    Great QBs in bad situations still typically show alot to be impressed by.   Darnold has shown very little.

Id give our 4th and maybe future 5 or 6.   Thats it.

[warfelg]

I’m gonna stand my ground that Darnold is better than most fans give him credit for due to just how bad the Jets/Gase were. Unless they make major overhauls through FA/draft, whoever they draft at QB will struggle too. 

[MOSteelers56]

40 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I’m gonna stand my ground that Darnold is better than most fans give him credit for due to just how bad the Jets/Gase were. Unless they make major overhauls through FA/draft, whoever they draft at QB will struggle too. 

I like Darnold too. He shows some skill on tape occasionally. I wouldn't give up a 2nd for him, though. If he had more time on his rookie deal, I'd think about it. 

[Dcash4]

38 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Darnold is better than most fans give him credit for due to just how bad the Jets/Gase were

I absolutely agree. My question is how much? Even a big step forward is probably a bottom 15 player. It's not that a player like that moving forward is a bad option for us, but trading a 2nd for it and paying $10M isn't worth it IMO. Id rather try for a mediocre QB with our own pick on a much more friendly deal moving forward in that case. 

I actually think the best spot for him is to stay where he is and hope the Shannahan style (max protect, PA and misdirection reads) will help. 

[MOSteelers56]

14 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

I absolutely agree. My question is how much? Even a big step forward is probably a bottom 15 player. It's not that a player like that moving forward is a bad option for us, but trading a 2nd for it and paying $10M isn't worth it IMO. Id rather try for a mediocre QB with our own pick on a much more friendly deal moving forward in that case. 

I actually think the best spot for him is to stay where he is and hope the Shannahan style (max protect, PA and misdirection reads) will help. 

I'd also disagree with his ceiling as a bottom 15 player. He still has a considerable amount of potential. I think he could be a really good QB if he figures it out. That's a big If, but I think he could be much better than a bottom tier starting QB. 

[warfelg]

18 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

I absolutely agree. My question is how much? Even a big step forward is probably a bottom 15 player. It's not that a player like that moving forward is a bad option for us, but trading a 2nd for it and paying $10M isn't worth it IMO. Id rather try for a mediocre QB with our own pick on a much more friendly deal moving forward in that case. 

I actually think the best spot for him is to stay where he is and hope the Shannahan style (max protect, PA and misdirection reads) will help. 

I think his potential is still a top 10-15 starting QB. He’s made some good reads and throws to guys that just drop it or don’t even make the effort. 
 

Also his 4th year deal is only $4.3mil to the team acquiring him IIRC. 

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I'd also disagree with his ceiling as a bottom 15 player

Im not saying that his ceiling is bottom 15, I am talking likelihood. It's a much higher percentage chance that someone who has been bottom 3 for 3 years is going to take a leap to mediocre, not stud. We are talking about Brock Oswieler to Andy Dalton realistically, not Oswieler to Rodgers. 

That's what I am not willing to pay for. Not a second rounder anyway. 

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

Also his 4th year deal is only $4.3mil to the team acquiring him IIRC.

That's way more palatable. I still have a problem with the years of cost control - next year's 5th year option is around $19M and the tag the following year would ring in around $25M. Those are big numbers for mediocre, especially when you have to put pen to paper on already studs like Minka and TJ. 

Again, I don't have a problem with the Darnold experiment. My issue is cost. I don't see a meteoric rise. Just an average one. And if its average, it's 10x more cost effective just to try our luck in the draft and use our funds to make the best team possible. 

[warfelg]

I honestly can see him making an Alex Smith type jump. And if you are interested in winning, getting Darnold on a 2-year $24mil deal as a try out is better than some of the alternatives.