Covid-19 News/Discussion

[GSUeagles14]

3 hours ago, ET80 said:

I'm going to try a different approach on this, and hopefully a constructive conversation can take place:

My take is not one of "good guy" or "bad guy" despite what it sounds like. Right now, we're in the middle of what I've heard referred to as "brutal calculus". It's a war of attrition on so many fronts, one of the biggest being Supply Chain and Logistics.

A little background on me: I work in Software Management for Financial Institutions, but my college focus was Supply Chain Management/MIS. So, I have a cursory knowledge on how these things work from development to creation in production down to delivery and consumption. It's been a while since I exercised these muscles, but I'll share what know:

So, I want to focus on resources constraint: The original complaint was beds and availability of these for people. While this is true, it's underselling the resources necessary to keep Covid patients from getting better. If the issue is *just* beds, we could repurpose old hotels, old apartment complexes and have beds for days. But... There are more resources that need to be factored into it (both human resources and physical resources) and these resources aren't exactly simple to mass produce at the levels necessary to manage everything.

- First up: Doctors. They are a critical resource, they are the ones managing the caseload and direction for patients in hospital. They write prescriptions, they monitor progress, they intervene where needed - they save lives. This can't be "one size fits all" either, it has to be unique to each and every patient. Doctors are naturally limited, not everyone can do the job.

- Next: Nurses. They're the players on the field, they're doing the operational efforts to keep a patient going. Administering meds, monitoring vitals, escalating to other specialists, doctors, etc - they also save lives. True frontline people and their staffing is at an all time low right now, and this has been an issue since 2018, when Covid wasn't even a thing anyone knew about (personal experience: my mom is a retired nurse, 79 years old, been retired for a good 15 years. She got a call in 2020 to see if she'd come back to work in a limited capacity - she quickly rejected it, but they were offering her more money than what I make, and I make pretty good money).

- Mentioned above: Specialists. Surgeons, Anesthesiologists, Nephrologists, Pulmonologists, etc. Pulmonologists are probably tasked beyond capacity right now, but each of these experts are needed at a moments' notice. These aren't positions that can be filled quickly, either - daisy fresh doctors aren't going to have the needed knowledge to make the needed impact.

- Equipment: This is a big one. When you're in a hospital, you're hooked up to a number of things - IVs, Heart Monitors, Oxygenation Saturation monitors, etc. With respect to Covid, you need breathing machines, which actually were in short supply when we started this pandemic, remember? We tried to repurpose factories to make more, but these are precision instruments, you can't expect a factory pushing out Toyota Camry's to pivot to making this. Another equipment that needs to be factored in is ancillary equipment - tubes/needles to connect patient to equipment. Unlike the electronics, the ancillary equipment is single use; Once a patient uses it, it's done, you can't re-use it again, and it has to be replaced frequently to avoid mold and infection. So, this supply has to be constantly replinished to EXACT specifications, you can't pivot one factory to make more. Much like nurses, these items have been in short supply for a while. We have enough to withstand a year of a pandemic, but two years is pushing it.

- Medication: Tylenol, Mucinex, Vitamin C, D, Zinc. It SEEMS like it's readily available, and for the most part, that stuff is. However, the big guns for Covid? Convalescent Plasma, Remdesivir, Monoclonal Antibody Therapy? That's in shorter supply, and it requires a level of precision to recreate; The stakes are too high to eyeball the production of these actual life saving medications, they need to be made at a pace where you get it right, not necessarily get it fast - a bad batch of any of these items would do *exponential* damage to an already weak patient. Right now we're not at critical mass, but it doesn't take much to upset the balance of these important items.

- PPE: I kept this separate from equipment for a reason, because we need to identify how consumers (such as us) use it vs how medical professionals use it. Me? I'm still rocking some of the same masks I had when this started - I wash em, I disenfect em, I change out filters, but it's the same Dave Chappelle 2020 tour mask I got back in June, or my Avengers Assemble mask I bought on the BookFace. Much like ancillary equipment, hospital PPE is one time use; Medical professional uses it for Patient A, then disposes of it, grabs new PPE and visits Patient B. Rinse and repeat. So, it's another item that's in constant demand, with very specific specs that have to be followed to produce. They don't grow on trees, sadly enough.

I hope this outlines what I mean when I say "resource allocation". It's not just beds - it's the people, equipment and medication that is adversely impacted when a rush of unvaccinated come in, and the items that can be used for others is now put to use for somebody who COULD have avoided this - but willingly chose not to.

One last note: I never said to not help them (and if I what I said came off that way, I sincerely apologize). My intention is to compartmentalize what help looks like for those who vaccinate and those who don't vaccinate:

- If you're vaccinated, the full force of our medical system is at your disposal, for now and when other variants start to potentially gain an advantage. If you vaccinate (as well as get any boosters down the line) you're good, our system will care for you whenever something comes up.

- If you're unvaccinated, you're more than welcome to come in to an urgent care center, get a diagnosis, run the full force of tests available to determine the issue. From there, you can be given advice on how to self medicate with OTC products (Tylenol, Mucinex, Vitamin C, D, and Zinc). You can get steroidal shots to help open up airways to help with breathing. You can get prescriptions to mitigate against symptoms. But - simply because we don't have unlimited resources - I need to hold my key resources for those who did take the proper steps to avoid the pandemic, but still find themselves in a bad situation. So, I can't admit you - even if I WANT to admit you, even if I have supplies and staff right now - because this thing is moving fast, and I have to be faster if we stand a chance.

It's brutal calculus, as I said. The needs of those who took this seriously outweigh the needs of those who didn't take this seriously. It sounds callous, I know. But when you're dealing with limited resources and a growing caseload, you have to let data driven decisions take precedence over emotional responses and a misguided effort to save everyone.

This is - at its core - a war of attrition. And in any war of attrition ...people die. That's reality, I don't take any pleasure whatsoever in even saying that, but it's grounded in the reality we live in. Only in movies or TV do you save everyone.

Hopefully, we can continue down a path of reasonable discussion. If not, I think I'm done - I've expended as much logic and compassion as I can on this subject, and I don't want to come off as snarky anymore (which admittedly, I was).

A lot of this is well said. And im well aware people die, and while sad its a fact of life and inevitable. Theres an issue here though. One, and we'll probably continue to agree to disagree on this, theres no real threat with the delta variant to the vaccinated. Its a microscopic % that are getting hospitalized if youre vaccinated. So you want to hold back the good medicine to the unvaccinated, i dont like it but whatever. Doctors, nurses etc are not an issue. If we start to see a big influx of vaccinated folks needing to get hospitalized, at that point you can pivot. But this is a much more nuanced take than your previous statements of "dont treat the unvaccinated".

 

[ET80]

3 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

Kirk Cousins likes those Sloppy Steaks

I'm positive he likes a bit of steak with his A1...

[candyman93]

It’s just….

 

Kirk

 

Throw some salt on them or something and rotate them every 5 minutes. Don’t want medium rare? Okay, just go for medium then. DON’T PUT THEM ON TOP OF FOIL.

[GSUeagles14]

2 hours ago, Deadpulse said:

An inconsequential improvement in the grand scheme of things. So yes, stupid to suggest it would make a significant difference. 

thats a pretty bold statement, do you have any data to back this up? Or is it just solely your opinion? Or, to be fair, whats leading you to believe a healthy population would only lead to an inconsequential improvement? 

[ET80]

20 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

One, and we'll probably continue to agree to disagree on this, theres no real threat with the delta variant to the vaccinated. Its a microscopic % that are getting hospitalized if youre vaccinated.

That's just the Delta variant. What sort of impact will the Theta variant have? Zeta? Epsilon? Nobody can say, it could be exponentially worse than Delta. It could be nothing, but you can't think optimistically when you're already behind.

You can't take countermeasures to these variants after the fact, you have to forecast for the worst. If you're planning for Zeta while you're admitting patients for Zeta, you're well behind the virus... and will probably not catch up.

20 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

Doctors, nurses etc are not an issue.

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. It IS an issue:

https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/us-physician-shortage-growing

https://www.usa.edu/blog/nursing-shortage/

https://nursejournal.org/articles/the-us-nursing-shortage-state-by-state-breakdown/

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2021/08/04/shortage-of-nurses-will-only-worsen-amid-high-labor-demand-says-ceo-of-texas-nurses-association/

https://www.sigmanursing.org/why-sigma/about-sigma/sigma-media/nursing-shortage-information/facts-on-the-nursing-shortage-in-north-america

https://www.managedhealthcareexecutive.com/view/does-the-u-s-have-a-shortage-of-physicians-

Please find me data that counters these studies by medical schools, professional work associations, unions, etc. Find me one piece of data for each I presented, and I will find you 10 more to counter those.

20 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

If we start to see a big influx of vaccinated folks needing to get hospitalized, at that point you can pivot.

You're too late by then. There's a term - "turning a tanker". Tankers are big, they don't turn quickly - turns have to be deliberate, planned out before you drift ashore.

Waiting for it to happen is exactly why we're in this position. We knew what was going on overseas in China, Italy, Spain (heck, we had eyes on Wuhan in 12/2019). We didn't take precautions then, we waited for a big influx and - 17 months later, here we are. 

Forecasting and planning for future events is always, always, ALWAYS the more prudent move. There is no instances where a "wait and see" strategy benefits anyone, especially when the virus isn't taking a "wait and see" approach.

20 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

But this is a much more nuanced take than your previous statements of "dont treat the unvaccinated".

I quickly advised this as a "resource constraint" issue. Did you not see that?

[ET80]

21 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

But this is a much more nuanced take than your previous statements of "dont treat the unvaccinated".

About 12 pages ago, before we got started:

On 8/4/2021 at 4:41 PM, ET80 said:

I'm simply stating that you allocate resources accordingly. Even if a hospital isn't at capacity, it doesn't mean it won't be at capacity if you make exception after exception...

 

[squire12]

2 hours ago, Xenos said:

Yeah I don’t agree with healthcare professionals quitting because of a vaccine mandate. A lot of other reasons like bad pay and burnout, then yeah. But not a vaccine mandate.

I think if you were in their situation, you might feel different.   Everyone has a breaking point.

Mandating some to get the vaccine, yet having to potentially work in suboptimal situations and caring for individuals that did/didn't take this seriously and no further  vaccine mandates for others might be a line that is hard to come back from.

[GSUeagles14]

Just now, ET80 said:

That's just the Delta variant. What sort of impact will the Theta variant have? Zeta? Epsilon? Nobody can say, it could be exponentially worse than Delta. It could be nothing, but you can't think optimistically when you're already behind.

You can't take countermeasures to these variants after the fact, you have to forecast for the worst. If you're planning for Zeta while you're admitting patients for Zeta, you're well behind the virus... and will probably not catch up.

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. It IS an issue:

https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/us-physician-shortage-growing

https://www.usa.edu/blog/nursing-shortage/

https://nursejournal.org/articles/the-us-nursing-shortage-state-by-state-breakdown/

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2021/08/04/shortage-of-nurses-will-only-worsen-amid-high-labor-demand-says-ceo-of-texas-nurses-association/

https://www.sigmanursing.org/why-sigma/about-sigma/sigma-media/nursing-shortage-information/facts-on-the-nursing-shortage-in-north-america

https://www.managedhealthcareexecutive.com/view/does-the-u-s-have-a-shortage-of-physicians-

Please find me data that counters these studies by medical schools, professional work associations, unions, etc. Find me one piece of data for each I presented, and I will find you 10 more to counter those.

You're too late by then. There's a term - "turning a tanker". Tankers are big, they don't turn quickly - turns have to be deliberate, planned out before you drift ashore.

Waiting for it to happen is exactly why we're in this position. We knew what was going on overseas, we didn't take precautions - 17 months later, here we are. 

Forecasting for future events is always, always, ALWAYS the more prudent move. There is no instances where a "wait and see" strategy benefits anyone, anyone at all.

I quickly advised this as a "resource constraint" issue. Did you not see that?

To be clear, im talking about currently in regards to doctors and nurses. Theyre not an issue because essentially the only people being hospitalized are the unvaccinated. specifically to doctors/nurses, if you want to have a plan in place for if/when vaccinated folks start to get hospitalized in large #'s, well thats a great idea. Call a meeting, tell your we're implementing the plan we talked about,  and were moving care away from the unvaccinated and focusing on the vaccinated. But to say we cant we cant spare doctors and nurses because something may happen and its not easy to redirect human resources... i simply disagree with. 

And i think thats where ill stop on this one, its better to just say "agree to disagree" and we can both hope that people will continue to get vaccinated at the accelerated rate we've seen recently.

 

[Deadpulse]

30 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

thats a pretty bold statement, do you have any data to back this up? Or is it just solely your opinion? Or, to be fair, whats leading you to believe a healthy population would only lead to an inconsequential improvement? 

Quote

"There are no miracle foods or diets that can prevent or cure you of the virus. Still, eating a healthy, well-balanced diet full of several nutrients (copper, folate, iron, selenium, zinc, and vitamins A, B6, B12, C, and D), will ensure you get all the essentials to keep your immune system and energy levels up.

"You can get your vitamin C from fruits and vegetables, some vitamin D from low-fat milk, fortified milk alternatives, and seafood, and zinc from lean meat, seafood, legumes, nuts, and seeds," advises Qunomedical's Chief Medical Officer Prof Dr Rüdiger Heicappell, who has been working on the COVID-19 frontline in Germany.

https://patient.info/news-and-features/can-lifestyle-changes-reduce-your-covid-19-risk

If you have read up on the viral load and the communicability of COVID you will understand why a healthy lifestyle alone will have almost no effect on the overall spread. Symptoms may be reduced and some hospitalization would have been avoided but given the sheer level of over-taxed our healthcare system was/is at the peak of this thing, even a 40% drop in hospitalizations would still leave us in an awful spot. 

So again, would it have helped if EVERYONE was in peak condition for their age it would help with hospitalizations and deaths would be down but it would still be unacceptable and the spread would not be slowed. 

That all being said, your one sided narrow view of this impossible scenario is sad. 85% of the world live in severe poverty. Literally BILLIONS of people are malnourished and the complete opposite of obese but just as unhealthy due to circumstances completely out of their control living in third world countries and/or under oppressive dictators/tyrants. 

So please, fight your battle that obesity is the real problem with COVID-19, just know that your viewpoint is myopic and really ignorant. 

[ET80]

13 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

To be clear, im talking about currently in regards to doctors and nurses. Theyre not an issue because essentially the only people being hospitalized are the unvaccinated.

This isn't correct though - hospitals aren't Covid exclusive, people still show up with gunshot wounds, heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, etc. The nurse/doctor allocated to an unvaccinated patient is now not available to deal with the guy rushed into the hospital with a cardiac arrest...

Resource constrains are across ALL things a hospital does. Not just Covid.

17 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

But to say we cant we cant spare doctors and nurses because something may happen and its not easy to redirect human resources... i simply disagree with. 

I don't think you understand how quickly this pandemic can go from 0-100 really quickly.

[Xenos]

58 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I think if you were in their situation, you might feel different.   Everyone has a breaking point.

Mandating some to get the vaccine, yet having to potentially work in suboptimal situations and caring for individuals that did/didn't take this seriously and no further  vaccine mandates for others might be a line that is hard to come back from.

I empathize to an extent. But generally, if you’re in a healthcare setting, you’re going to need to provide immunization record unless you have a medical exemption. It’s just the reality of the situation.

[GSUeagles14]

2 hours ago, ET80 said:

This isn't correct though - hospitals aren't Covid exclusive, people still show up with gunshot wounds, heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, etc. The nurse/doctor allocated to an unvaccinated patient is now not available to deal with the guy rushed into the hospital with a cardiac arrest...

Resource constrains are across ALL things a hospital does. Not just Covid.

I don't think you understand how quickly this pandemic can go from 0-100 really quickly.

I just came back from my run (health!) and i was thinking this is what youd say, im pretty sure you said you dropped or conceded this point (i forgot the word you used). Obese people dont have to be obese, thats a choice. Cancer patients who smoked, thats a choice. They made those choices and took the risk that cancer, heart disease, etc wouldnt come for them. But it was a choice they made. Its actually funny that you include heart attack/stroke in your list as you can drastically decrease your risks for those if you live a healthy lifestyle. So why is it the obese people who made a choice to eat pizza and pasta then had a heart attack gets medical attention, but the covid patient who made a choice to not get a vaccine doesnt. 

 

And i think you underestimate how quickly a meeting can be called. send out mass email, text, phone call or whatever that a meeting will be had at x time. "were implementing plan ______, effective immediately. You guys are great at what you do, we've been over said plan extensively, lets go execute it".

[ET80]

10 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

And i think you underestimate how quickly a meeting can be called. send out mass email, text, phone call or whatever that a meeting will be had at x time. "were implementing plan ______, effective immediately. You guys are great at what you do, we've been over said plan extensively, lets go execute it".

I think you vastly overestimate how much planning is involved in getting everyone in lockstep - from vendors to suppliers to 3rd party providers to your actual staff. If you think a single zoom meeting and follow up email can turn a tanker, it tells me you don't have the responsibilities in your vocation to understand how to coordinate a cross organizational, cross functional staff of 500+ to pivot.

What you're describing doesn't happen. Period.

12 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

So why is it the obese people who made a choice to eat pizza and pasta then had a heart attack gets medical attention, but the covid patient who made a choice to not get a vaccine doesnt. 

Because the person who is unvaccinated is choosing to put others at risk by not getting the vaccine, getting sick and creating variants. They could have avoided it, they didn't.

Is the obese creating a harmful environment for anyone other than themselves?

I feel as if we've been over this - you're either being willfully obtuse or you legit don't remember (give  how you interpreted the bear story, I legit don't know).

Nonetheless, I feel snarkiness coming down the pipeline. So, good day.

 

[GSUeagles14]

2 hours ago, Deadpulse said:

https://patient.info/news-and-features/can-lifestyle-changes-reduce-your-covid-19-risk

If you have read up on the viral load and the communicability of COVID you will understand why a healthy lifestyle alone will have almost no effect on the overall spread. Symptoms may be reduced and some hospitalization would have been avoided but given the sheer level of over-taxed our healthcare system was/is at the peak of this thing, even a 40% drop in hospitalizations would still leave us in an awful spot. 

So again, would it have helped if EVERYONE was in peak condition for their age it would help with hospitalizations and deaths would be down but it would still be unacceptable and the spread would not be slowed. 

That all being said, your one sided narrow view of this impossible scenario is sad. 85% of the world live in severe poverty. Literally BILLIONS of people are malnourished and the complete opposite of obese but just as unhealthy due to circumstances completely out of their control living in third world countries and/or under oppressive dictators/tyrants. 

So please, fight your battle that obesity is the real problem with COVID-19, just know that your viewpoint is myopic and really ignorant. 

Im sorry but youre completely making up #s and then saying "oh, this wouldnt help". a 40% drop in hospitalizations might still leave us in an awful spot, but would a 80% drop help! Neither is based on anything. Although, admittedly im having a tough time reading today as @JonStarkcan attest to,can you point me to wehre youre seeing that 40% if im just missing it. 

 

Additionally, who cares if we get covid and sympotons arent any worse than the flu? Sure, not fun, but manageable. So when you say deaths/hospitalizations would be down, thats very important. I never asserted that the spread would be lowered if we had a 100% healthy population, at least i dont think?

 

Not even gonna address the 3rd world stuff, or those living under dictators/tyrants. I did get a chuckle out of it though.

[Deadpulse]

3 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

Im sorry but youre completely making up #s and then saying "oh, this wouldnt help". a 40% drop in hospitalizations might still leave us in an awful spot, but would a 80% drop help! Neither is based on anything. Although, admittedly im having a tough time reading today as @JonStarkcan attest to,can you point me to wehre youre seeing that 40% if im just missing it. 

 

Additionally, who cares if we get covid and sympotons arent any worse than the flu? Sure, not fun, but manageable. So when you say deaths/hospitalizations would be down, thats very important. I never asserted that the spread would be lowered if we had a 100% healthy population, at least i dont think?

 

Not even gonna address the 3rd world stuff, or those living under dictators/tyrants. I did get a chuckle out of it though.

Wow this post. I send you links and you still like... nah.

I shouldve taken my first instinct and ignore you. You clearly have a warped view on reality. 

I threw out an arbitrary number to make exactly that point, which if you had read the article, you wouldve gotten. THERE IS NO CONNECTION THAT CAN BE PROVEN TO ANY HEALTHY LIFESTYLE AS IT PERTAINS TO COVID-19, THE SEVERITY OF ITS SYMPTOMS, ITS MORTALITY RATE, ITS HOSPITALIZATION RATE, OR ITS COMMUNICABILITY. Studies have been run with no evidence found. Its in the article, read it. 

And of course you think 85% of people living in severe poverty is funny. Werent you the one grandstanding on our lack of empathy for those not getting a vaccine? At least thats a choice made, people born in 3rd world countries dont make that choice. It also completely unravels your point about obese people even if the other article wasnt enough for you. It is not possible for every person in the world to make this choice to live a healthy lifestyle. 85% of people in the entire WORLD can't make that choice. Even if your opinion was accurate, which my god it isnt, IT IS COMPLETELY IRRELEVENT.