Which of these trades are likely?

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Just a year prior, the Raiders went from 3 to 12 for only a second. Draft value changes based on who’s available. 

That said, Atlanta’s pick at 4 should be very valuable at this point. Get that pick, you have your pick of the QBs left or first dibs on the elite talents. 

Denver also moved back from 10 to 20 at well below book value.

Like you said, the issue is the market.   There will be 3-4 teams looking for QB, and so teams trading to 4 are going to pay over book value - unless ATL doesn't want to move back beyond a certain point.  I don't see it, though - I think ATL will look to max out value if they trade back, they have so many needs if they go that route.

[AkronsWitness]

43 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Denver also moved back from 10 to 20 at well below book value.

Like you said, the issue is the market.   There will be 3-4 teams looking for QB, and so teams trading to 4 are going to pay over book value - unless ATL doesn't want to move back beyond a certain point.  I don't see it, though - I think ATL will look to max out value if they trade back, they have so many needs if they go that route.

Agreed. I think though everyone is looking at Denver at #9. That isn't a steep drop for teams like the Falcons/Bengals like it would be with the Patriots and it's fairly evident they are one of the QB needy teams. Plus the Pats don't strike mesas a "sell the farm for a major trade" type of team.

I could also see a weird scenerio where Lance/Fields drops right to them at #9 because people are over estimating how scouts view these guys.

What would be bad for ATL is if they OVER estimate the value of #4 if they want to trade out.

Edited April 7, 2021 by AkronsWitness

[Epyon]

All indications right now from "insiders" regarding the Bears is that Pace/Nagy are on thin ice with McCasky's and wouldn't be ALLOWED to trade up that high for an unknown QB commodity..... particularly after Pace traded up for literally the only QB of Trubisky/Mahomes/Watson that sucked the last time he tried drafting a QB.

Now rational people would point out that, if you can't trust your GM to do his job, then maybe you should have just fired him...... but you know... Chicago gonna Chicago, and wallowing in QB ineptitude is kind of our brand.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Epyon

[Hunter2_1]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Denver also moved back from 10 to 20 at well below book value.

Like you said, the issue is the market.   There will be 3-4 teams looking for QB, and so teams trading to 4 are going to pay over book value - unless ATL doesn't want to move back beyond a certain point.  I don't see it, though - I think ATL will look to max out value if they trade back, they have so many needs if they go that route.

Before this Carolina trade I thought Denver had a great, pivital spot there with tons of leverage. NE, for example, would probably have given up a lot to get to your spot. Now, however, I'm thinking it's more likely we stay put but it would still be a great spot to land for us.

We may want to cover anyone moving into CAR's spot though and jump ahead. But it would take A LOT.

[Hunter2_1]

7 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

None of the above.

Broncos trade with Lions for #7.

Not going to figure out the compensation, as it isn't my thread. 😉

Well...

 

If Denver wanted 7, they could trade 9 and 71 and it would equal;

Trader A (DET) Gives Value:   1500
Trader B (DEN) Gives Value:   1585

So this is evens, basically. Would Detroit want more?

Denver send 9, 71 and 152;

Trader A (DET) Gives Value:   1500
Trader B (DEN) Gives Value:   1616.8

Gain/Loss %
Trader A:   +7.79%
Trader B:   -7.22%

[CWood21]

On 4/6/2021 at 4:57 PM, FalconFan13 said:

Now as for the trades the Denver one is light for us and it would atleast need to be  4 for  9, 40, and 2022 1st.  Which to me would be a very likely trade we make because it gives us a cheaper 1st round pick at 9 and 9 is the perfect spot for our main targets and needs in  Parsons, Surtain, Sewell, Slater, or even to trade down again if need be if another QB Falls or a top 5 guy falls like one of the WR's and we can target defensive players at Safety like Moehrig, edge at Kiwtty or Phillips or a RB like Najee.   Once again lowering the cap need for our 1st round pick and filling more holes we have alot of them and little cap space to help out. 

Switch that for a '22 SRP or move 40 back to a 4th round pick, and I think you're on the right path.  You're not moving back 5 spots and getting a SRP this year and a FRP next year.

[Dr A W Niloc]

Quote

 1. (Patriots to 7): New England trades 15th overall, 46th overall, 139th overall and the 2022 1st round pick for Detroit's 7th overall and 153rd. (Probably for Jones, NE may feel need to jump Denver)

     No.  Denver is in play and will leapfrog New England at #7 for the fourth QB, be it Fields or Jones.

Quote

2. (Vikings to 9 ) Minnesota trades 14th overall, 78th and a 2022 2nd round pick for Denver's 9th overall and 152nd. (Slater or Surtain on the board)

     Reasonable, though Minnesota has other options (read:  Caleb Farley), even at CB.

Quote

3. (Broncos to 4) Denver trades 9th overall, 40th overall and a 2022 3rd round pick for Atlanta's 4th overall and 182nd. (For Fields, Lance or Jones)

     While not as desperate as New England, Denver may be in Last Missing Piece mode too.  There's a bit of a catch, though.

Quote

4. (Bears to 5) Chicago trades 20th overall, 83rd overall, 2022 1st round pick, 2023 first round pick, 2022 3rd round pick for Cinci's 5th overall and 111th (the thinking here is that it's a deep tackle class, and Cinci adds a ton of capital. Meanwhile Chicago gets into prime position for a QB)

     No.  The top four QBs rate to be gone and it's a big drop thereafter.

Quote

5. (Patriots to 4) New England trades 15th overall, 46th overall, 2022 first round pick, 2023 first round pick for Atlanta's 4th overall, and a 4th round pick (Atlanta make ideal swap to get into middle of draft for pass rushers, NE get best possible position for QBotF. NE also now have four 4ths, and will package these up to move back into late 2nd or 3rd)

     New England would sell the farm for Mac Jones, but it isn't entirely clear they'll do so for Justin Fields.  Denver might consider the two QBs interchangeable;  if New England did they will have already offered Atlanta a Blank check.

[NYRaider]

On 4/6/2021 at 2:09 PM, Yin-Yang said:

Just a year prior, the Raiders went from 3 to 12 for only a second. Draft value changes based on who’s available. 

That said, Atlanta’s pick at 4 should be very valuable at this point. Get that pick, you have your pick of the QBs left or first dibs on the elite talents. 

The Raiders have regularly got fleeced in draft day trades. 

[NYRaider]

On 4/6/2021 at 10:15 PM, Broncofan said:

I don't see it, though - I think ATL will look to max out value if they trade back, they have so many needs if they go that route.

I think a trade such as this would be fair value for both teams, especially if Fields is on the board. 

Atlanta receives: #9, #40, 2022 1st round pick

Denver receives: #4, #68

[NYRaider]

On 4/6/2021 at 2:25 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

3. (Broncos to 4) Denver trades 9th overall, 40th overall and a 2022 3rd round pick for Atlanta's 4th overall and 182nd. (For Fields, Lance or Jones)

If I'm Atlanta I don't move the 4th pick without receiving a 2022 1st round pick as well. 

[FalconFan13]

10 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I think a trade such as this would be fair value for both teams, especially if Fields is on the board. 

Atlanta receives: #9, #40, 2022 1st round pick

Denver receives: #4, #68

If that was  #4 and 108 going back i would probably take it and might even throw in a 4th next year as well.  Not sure i would do it for a 3rd this year going back though. 

[CWood21]

On 4/12/2021 at 3:29 AM, NYRaider said:

If I'm Atlanta I don't move the 4th pick without receiving a 2022 1st round pick as well. 

IF you want that DEN '22 FRP, you're going to have to drop that 40th pick into either a 3rd or 4th round pick.