AZBearsFan Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) For what it’s worth, starting with Troy Aikman in 1992, 24 of the last 29 Super Bowls (82.8%) have been won by QBs drafted in the first 33 picks of their respective draft class, or by Tom Brady. And 1 of the other 5 was won by a QB (Foles) who was an injury replacement for a QB taken 2nd overall who was probably the MVP that year before the injury. That’s not to say you force a pick on an unworthy QB in round 1 just to do so, but it’s pretty compelling evidence that the best way to win a title (the actual goal of every team) is to get your hands on one of those top talents. There’s a reason SF, who was just in the SB 14 months ago with their 29-year old incumbent QB, just traded 3 1st round picks to move into the top 3 to land one of those talents. Edited April 26, 2021 by AZBearsFan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 5 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: For what it’s worth, starting with Troy Aikman in 1992, 24 of the last 29 Super Bowls (82.8%) have been won by QBs drafted in the first 33 picks of their respective draft class, or by Tom Brady. And 1 of the other 5 was won by a QB (Foles) who was an injury replacement for a QB taken 2nd overall who was probably the MVP that year before the injury. That’s not to say you force a pick on an unworthy QB in round 1 just to do so, but it’s pretty compelling evidence that the best way to win a title (the actual goal of every team) is to get your hands on one of those top talents. There’s a reason SF, who was just in the SB 14 months ago with their 29-year old incumbent QB, just traded 3 1st round picks to move into the top 3 to land one of those talents. By my count, only 13 of the last 29 Super Bowls (45%) have been won by 1st round QBs playing for the team that drafted them. It's certainly the most common way to build a title team, but it's absolutely not the only way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbear72 Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 1 hour ago, abstract_thought said: By my count, only 13 of the last 29 Super Bowls (45%) have been won by 1st round QBs playing for the team that drafted them. It's certainly the most common way to build a title team, but it's absolutely not the only way. Brady GREATLY skews those numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 5 hours ago, Bigbear72 said: Brady GREATLY skews those numbers. Should we throw him out? If anything his success shows that there’s more than 1 path to success, both in Tampa and New England. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbear72 Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 23 minutes ago, abstract_thought said: Should we throw him out? If anything his success shows that there’s more than 1 path to success, both in Tampa and New England. Just pointing out that the GOAT in any sport will skew numbers drastically. He is a complete outlier. The exception and not the rule. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said: Just pointing out that the GOAT in any sport will skew numbers drastically. He is a complete outlier. The exception and not the rule. The greatest statistical outlier in sports. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 27, 2021 Author Share Posted April 27, 2021 Boy, will I ever be happy at the end of round one on Thursday night when we can finally put most of the speculation to bed. Think I'll celebrate with a bowl or two (not Cheerios either) and a glass or two of wine. Since I don't much care what Pace decides to do I can't lose. 😁 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 4 hours ago, Bigbear72 said: Just pointing out that the GOAT in any sport will skew numbers drastically. He is a complete outlier. The exception and not the rule. If anything that adds to the argument against "elite talents" at QB. Many of the greatest QBs of this generation were not considered elite during the draft process. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbear72 Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 36 minutes ago, abstract_thought said: If anything that adds to the argument against "elite talents" at QB. Many of the greatest QBs of this generation were not considered elite during the draft process. Please define many since, say 2000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said: Please define many since, say 2000. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, Warner, Romo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbear72 Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, abstract_thought said: Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, Warner, Romo. Now if you compare that list with all the QBs that were drafted since 2000, that does not equal many at all. Not even close. There were 261 qbs drafted. That does not include undrafted free agents. Of the 261 that were drafted you named 7 players. That is less than 3%. Since when is 3% many? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said: Now if you compare that list with all the QBs that were drafted since 2000, that does not equal many at all. Not even close. There were 261 qbs drafted. That does not include undrafted free agents. Of the 261 that were drafted you named 7 players. That is less than 3%. Since when is 3% many? Many of the greatest. This list comprises several of the top 10 QBs of the last decade. The point I’m making is that drafting an elite prospect is not the only way to find an elite QB. In fact this generation’s most elite QBs were not considered elite prospects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 2 hours ago, soulman said: Boy, will I ever be happy at the end of round one on Thursday night when we can finally put most of the speculation to bed. Think I'll celebrate with a bowl or two (not Cheerios either) and a glass or two of wine. Since I don't much care what Pace decides to do I can't lose. 😁 Can't like this twice, so I'll QFT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 27, 2021 Author Share Posted April 27, 2021 Just gonna mention here what I posted elsewhere. Chris Simms Mock has SF/Jones, Wash/Lance via trade w/Carolina, and Fields slip sliding all the way to TB with the #32 pick. Wonder if anyone else projects that kind of slide? Oh, and the Bears get Slater at #20 which would be nice puzzling as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, soulman said: Just gonna mention here what I posted elsewhere. Chris Simms Mock has SF/Jones, Wash/Lance via trade w/Carolina, and Fields slip sliding all the way to TB with the #32 pick. Wonder if anyone else projects that kind of slide? Oh, and the Bears get Slater at #20 which would be nice puzzling as well. All I know is that if this scenario played out then Pace should be fired on the spot for not taking Fields. That would be moronic Edited April 27, 2021 by topwop1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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