(Poll) Rank the QBs You'd Take Over Baker for At Least the Next 5 Years?

[Empire Lies]

*** Now that the Season has commenced I'm changing this Thread to Rank the QBs You'd Take Over Baker for the Next 5 Years & Beyond? Before, the thread was Rank the Starting QBs for the Upcoming Season *******

The new ranking criteria OP is the following:

The criteria for ranking that I use is simple: Replace Baker with the QB in question then ask yourself if the combination of strengths and weaknesses of that QB elevates the Browns offense overall relative to what Baker offers.

If one believes the offense to be at all elevated or better, they rank above Baker. If not, they rank below Baker. 

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Below is the OLD OP

Where does Baker Mayfield Rank?

The criteria for ranking that I use is simple: Replace Baker with the QB in question then ask yourself if the combination of strengths and weaknesses of that QB elevates the Browns offense overall relative to what Baker offers.

If one believes the offense to be at all elevated or better, they rank above Baker. If not, they rank below Baker. 

Given the teams that will likely have 2 different starters at different times this year: Bears (Andy Dalton & Justin Fields), 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo & Trey Lance), New Orleans (Jameis Winston & Taysom Hill), Broncos (Teddy Bridgewater & Drew Lock), and Texans (Davis Mills & Tyrod Taylor) that means the pool of starting QBs to consider is actually 38 QBs and not 32.

I think Baker falls in the 10 to 12 range but it could be debatable that he'd be as high as #8.

Ultimately, Baker is the high end of the non-transcendent trailer QBs; that is, his play is still dependent and more so a function of the quality of the surrounding talent/scheme more so than the high end truck/tractor QBs that can uplift and transcend offensive personnel and/or scheme deficiencies to achieve a high level of offensive play in ways that contribute to winning.

With the right supporting cast, Baker's high end play is Pro-Bowl, high quality QB elite play.

Will Baker ever become a transcendent truck/tractor QB?.

I'd hope so, but I don't think he'll get to that transcendent point, but I don't think that matters given the Browns talent in this 2 to 3 year super-bowl window.

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Top 38 starting QBs:

No Debate - I'd Take Over Baker:

1.) Patrick Mahomes 
(308 rush yards; 2Rush TDs -- approx 4700 Pass yards; 66.3% Comp Rate; 38 to 6 Pass TD to INT Ratio)

2.) Aaron Rodgers 
(149 rush yards; 3 Rush TDs -- approx 4300 Pass yards; 70% Comp Rate; 48 to 5 Pass TD to INT Ratio)

3.) Russell Wilson 
(512 rush yards; 2 Rush TDs -- approx 4200 Pass yards; 68.8% Comp Rate; 40 to 13 Pass TD to INT Ratio)

4.) Tom Brady 
(6 rush yards; 3 Rush TDs -- approx 4600 Pass yards; 65.7% Comp Rate; 40 to 12 Pass TD to INT Ratio)

5.) Deshaun Watson** 
(444 rush yards; 3 Rush TDs -- approx 4800 Pass yards; 70.2% Comp Rate; 33 to 7 Pass TD to INT Ratio)
(**Strictly Based on Football Play & No Rush to Judgment Either Way Regarding the Assault Allegations**)

Some Debate But I'd Take Over Baker:

6.) Josh Allen
(421 rush yards; 8 Rush TDs -- approx 4500 Pass yards; 69.2% Comp Rate; 37 to 10 Pass TD to INT Ratio)

7.) Lamar Jacksonm
(1,000 rush yards; 7 Rush TDs -- approx 2700 Pass yards; 64.2% Comp Rate; 26 to 9 Pass TD to INT Ratio)

8.) Dak Prescott
(2019 -- 277 rush yards; 3 Rush TDs -- approx 4900 Pass yards; 65% Comp Rate; 30 to 11 Pass TD to INT Ratio)

9.) Kyler Murray
(819 rush yards rushing; 11 Rush TDs -- approx 4,000 Pass yards; 67.2% Comp Rate; 26 to 12 Pass TD to INT Ratio)
 

Very Debatable But I'd Take Over Baker:

10.) Justin Herbert
(235 rush yards rushing; 5 Rush TDs -- approx 4,300 Pass yards; 67% Comp Rate; 31 to 10 Pass TD to INT Ratio)

11.) Trevor Lawrence
(Rookie Projection with Stefanski)
 

Where Baker Ranks:

12.) Baker Mayfield (165 rush yards; 1 rush TD; approx 3500 Pass yards; 62.8% Comp Rate; 26 to 9 Pass TD to INT Ratio)

Some Debate But I'd Take Baker Over Them

13.) Matthew Stafford

14.) Ryan Tannehill

15.) Joe Burrow 

16.) Justin Fields

17.) Derek Carr

 

Clearly Below Baker IMO:

18.) Matt Ryan

19.) Kirk Cousins

20.) Daniel Jones

21.) Zach Wilson 

22.) Ben Roethlisberger

23.) Jameis Winston

24.) Jimmy Garoppolo

25.) Ryan Fitzpatrick

26.) Sam Darnold

27.) Tua Tagovailoa

28.) Jared Goff

29.) Mac Jones

30.) Trey Lance

31.) Jalen Hurts

32.) Carson Wentz

33.) Teddy Bridgewater

34.) Drew Lock

35.) Tyrod Taylor

36.) Andy Dalton

37.) Davis Mills

38.) Taysom Hill

Edited October 8, 2021 by Empire Lies

[Kiwibrown]

To be Baker is a pin point point guard.

The way I see Baker is that he has an incredible arm, in terms of strength and the ability to place the ball. that is his biggest strength by far. I think he could be the most accurate QB in the league. 

I think what Baker needs to thrive is a good-great offensive line, especially in pass pro. He has enough mobility and pocket savvy to mitigate a moderate amount of pressure on occassion, but not enough his mobility really affects a game plan the way Josh allen, Lamar or someone else does. In 2019 he regressed as a player to the point where he was bad due to being skittery in the pocket.  I think Baker needs to play from a deeper pocket, Drew Brees used to sit very deep in the pocket, this gave him better capacity to see the field. 

Alongside this he needs 4-5 good receivers, tight ends and backs. TO qualify what I mean by good, the level of DBJ, Higgins, Hooper etc, not the mega WR like a Jarvis or OBJ. That is why I would be happy to move off one or both to keep our offensive line playing to a high level. Baker is best as a guy who keeps the defense off balance by finding the open guy. The Cincinnati game is a great example, lowish pressure, once OBJ was out of the game, he hit the open man, the throw ot DPJ to win the game was one of his best of the year, at the time DPJ was a nobody, the throw was exceptional, long distance back shoulder throw in tight coverage. 

He barely even looks at DPJ and rips the ball to a spot. 10/10 pre snap and post snap 

 

 

[Kiwibrown]

Also Id take Wtson off the list, I doubt he plays for another two years.

Allen is clearly a head of Baker, Lamar is an interesting case, he is going to have stay in tip top shape to beat out Baker, same goes for Murray, Murray gets killed if his mobility is reduced. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

I’d put him 6-8.

I think with what he’s been dealt coaching wise, turnover, etc., most every other QB would be broken.

@Empire Lies how tf you gonna put a rookie who’s literally never played a snap over Baker?

[nugpimpen]

I can't understand ranking someone that has never played a down in the league, over baker. I think Baker and Herbert are about tied for 10th. Otherwise good list. 

[Empire Lies]

3 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’d put him 6-8.

I think with what he’s been dealt coaching wise, turnover, etc., most every other QB would be broken.

@Empire Lies how tf you gonna put a rookie who’s literally never played a snap over Baker?

2 hours ago, nugpimpen said:

I can't understand ranking someone that has never played a down in the league, over baker. I think Baker and Herbert are about tied for 10th. Otherwise good list. 

That rookie, Trevor Lawrence, was in the '"Very Debatable But I'd Take Over Baker" category meaning it wasn't an easy or clear decision. I could go either way and it was close.

If you can have one QB right now with Stefanski and surrounded by this personnel, who do you choose, Baker Mayfield or Trevor Lawrence?

It's simple though, I asked myself would I rather have Trevor Lawrence or Baker Mayfield with Kevin Stefanski, with this offensive personnel group and the answer was Trevor Lawrence by a slight, debatable edge.

Lawrence is an elite athlete and thrower and in the end I think the playmaking and threat he'd pose as a runner off of play action, boots, and his ability to extend plays and transcend any play deficiencies around him gives him the edge over Baker because I think he'd elevate this offense despite experiencing rookie struggles. In year 2 in this offense, I'd think it would be clear that Trevor Lawrence would be better than Baker.

 

[Empire Lies]

7 hours ago, Kiwibrown said:

Also Id take Wtson off the list, I doubt he plays for another two years.

Allen is clearly a head of Baker, Lamar is an interesting case, he is going to have stay in tip top shape to beat out Baker, same goes for Murray, Murray gets killed if his mobility is reduced. 

Yeah, I doubt Watson plays this year for sure, but there's too much uncertainty and unknowns for me to pass judgment on whether he should/shouldn't or will/won't play beyond this year or not. Play-wise though he's still in that elite top 5 transcendent tier and thus was a good point of comparison on the list.

8 hours ago, Kiwibrown said:

I think what Baker needs to thrive is a good-great offensive line, especially in pass pro. He has enough mobility and pocket savvy to mitigate a moderate amount of pressure on occassion, but not enough his mobility really affects a game plan the way Josh allen, Lamar or someone else does.

Baker's a great QB and flashes top 5 elite ability in various moments and games, but he definitely will always need top tier OLine quality play and top tier playmakers surrounding him or his play would fall of a cliff more than some of the more transcendent top 5 QB talents.

[Empire Lies]

I'm only trading Baker for the following QBs based on what I think Kevin Stefanski could do with the Browns personnel and those QBs:

Obvious Yes:

1.) Patrick Mahomes

2.) Aaron Rodgers

3.) Russell Wilson

 

Debatable But Yes:

4.) Josh Allen

5.) Lamar Jackson

6.) Dak Prescott

7.) Kyler Murray

8.) Justin Herbert

9.) Trevor Lawrence

 

If Deshaun Watson is proven innocent, then it's an obvious that I'd trade Baker for him. Tom Brady is a little too close to retirement for me to feel good about trading Baker for him, but there'd be no doubt that the Browns would win the Super Bowl if Brady was on this team so in a world where one only had one season to play for the Super Bowl I'd trade Baker for Brady as well.

Edited September 4, 2021 by Empire Lies

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

43 minutes ago, Empire Lies said:

That rookie, Trevor Lawrence, was in the '"Very Debatable But I'd Take Over Baker" category meaning it wasn't an easy or clear decision. I could go either way and it was close.

If you can have one QB right now with Stefanski and surrounded by this personnel, who do you choose, Baker Mayfield or Trevor Lawrence?

It's simple though, I asked myself would I rather have Trevor Lawrence or Baker Mayfield with Kevin Stefanski, with this offensive personnel group and the answer was Trevor Lawrence by a slight, debatable edge.

Lawrence is an elite athlete and thrower and in the end I think the playmaking and threat he'd pose as a runner off of play action, boots, and his ability to extend plays and transcend any play deficiencies around him gives him the edge over Baker because I think he'd elevate this offense despite experiencing rookie struggles. In year 2 in this offense, I'd think it would be clear that Trevor Lawrence would be better than Baker.

 

That’s not what you initially asked. You asked where does he rank amongst starters.  The guy your referencing hasn’t completed a regular season pass yet.  He’s done nothing to rank anywhere at all yet.

We can project what he’ll be, sure, but that doesn’t always work out.  See: Darnold, Sam

So even using your theoretical scenario of replacing Baker with each player, no, I wouldn’t replace Baker with a complete unknown.

[Kiwibrown]

32 minutes ago, Empire Lies said:

 

Baker's a great QB and flashes top 5 elite ability in various moments and games, but he definitely will always need top tier OLine quality play and top tier playmakers surrounding him or his play would fall of a cliff more than some of the more transcendent top 5 QB talents.

I just dont think he needs awesoem play makers. Rookie year he had only average weapons a part from Chubb, and he played well. 

Year 2 weapons improve on paper and he regresses. 

Year 3 plays better without obj. 

He has always had a threatening running game, but on paper he has only had average weapons a part from obj, and he hasn't proven to work with him, for whatever reason. 

Hell Baker made Perriman look viable, Higgons has been much better with him too.

[AkronsWitness]

I know this is a safe space so I will say that I would take Baker over Jackson anyday. I think Jackson's career will be a lot like Cam Newtons. He's going to peak in year 6-7 and then head for a steep/immediate decline shortly after.

I think Baker sits in that 10-12 range currently

[Thomas5737]

40 minutes ago, Empire Lies said:

Baker's a great QB and flashes top 5 elite ability in various moments and games, but he definitely will always need top tier OLine quality play and top tier playmakers surrounding him or his play would fall of a cliff more than some of the more transcendent top 5 QB talents.

His o-line was just okay as a rookie. Terrible in year 2. good last year. As long as it's been okay he has been good.

As far as playmakers, he doesn't need that. QBs with short passing games need playmakers, Baker doesn't fit that category. Obviously playmakers help every QB but game manager types need playmakers most to have an offense move, not the downfield throwers like Baker.

What Baker does need is a decent offensive line and guys who can catch the football and be where they are supposed to be. It would be great to also have separation but Baker throws into tighter windows than most so as long as you adjust and catch a football that is what is needed.

[Empire Lies]

11 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

You asked where does he rank amongst starters.

Trevor Lawrence has been named the Starter for the Jaguars.

Season predictions require speculation and projections of play including rookies that have yet to take a real snap yet.

I'll add the clarification "Where does Baker Rank Amongst the Starting QBs for the Upcoming Season."

Much like asking how the Head Coaches rank for the upcoming season, one would have to speculate on how new HCs like Urban Meyer, Arthur Smith, or Brandon Staley would fare relative to their experienced, proven counterparts.

Darnold wasn't on this team with these coaches; he was on the Jets. If I had to rank Lawrence on the Jags versus Baker on the Browns, it's Baker all the way.

The speculative question is would you take Trevor Lawrence on the Browns or Bakery Mayfield on the Browns? If you take Lawrence, that in essence means you think Lawrence is "better" than Baker given an overall analysis.

To me, it's a very debatable answer with Trevor Lawrence getting the edge based on my evaluation and projection of how his talents would thrive on this team at this time with these Coaches.

Sounds like you think it's an easier answer and Baker wins out clearly.

[Empire Lies]

5 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

His o-line was just okay as a rookie. Terrible in year 2. good last year. As long as it's been okay he has been good.

As far as playmakers, he doesn't need that. QBs with short passing games need playmakers, Baker doesn't fit that category. Obviously playmakers help every QB but game manager types need playmakers most to have an offense move, not the downfield throwers like Baker.

What Baker does need is a decent offensive line and guys who can catch the football and be where they are supposed to be. It would be great to also have separation but Baker throws into tighter windows than most so as long as you adjust and catch a football that is what is needed.

To me, it's about relative comparisons not absolute comparisons.

So, given the same context of personnel, coaches, and surrounding talent play levels, how do we assume each QB would fare?

If I put Baker on the Texans last year and Deshaun Watson on the Browns last year, I think the Texans would've been worse (they were awful anyway) and the Browns would've been better in terms of on-field football play, so that means I think Watson is the better QB (obviously not yet passing judgment based on the serious assault allegations).

It's true that all QBs benefit from quality OLine play and quality surrounding talent, but some need it more so than others. I think what most of us agree on is that Baker needs quality OLine play and a quality run-game. 

There's some debate between people regarding whether Baker would also need high quality WRs/TEs to still be a top tier QB. Some think as long as his OLine is good and he has a running game than Baker can be great with just the Jarvis Landry, Breshad Perriman, and Rashard Higgins types of WR cores. I'm of the opinion that I think he needs more than that.

Edited September 4, 2021 by Empire Lies

[Thomas5737]

13 minutes ago, Empire Lies said:

It's true that all QBs benefit from quality OLine play and quality surrounding talent, but some need it more so than others. I think what most of us agree on is that Baker needs quality OLine play and a quality run-game. 

I don't agree with that. It's always great to have a running game but I believe Baker is a rhythm QB and he is best when he throws often. We haven't seen that in the pros because we haven't done that. Yeah he threw a lot under Freddie but with no rhythm and 1 second on the play clock, the opposite of where Baker thrives.

Eventually he won't have a running game and hopefully we play to his strengths and then you will see him mentioned as a top tier QB.

18 minutes ago, Empire Lies said:

Baker can be great with just the Jarvis Landry, Breshad Perriman, and Rashard Higgins types of WR cores. I'm of the opinion that I think he needs more than that.

Hypothetical because that's all he has ever had. Obviously better is better but the Browns have a solid receiving core and that seems fine. No playmaker at the position but with Baker's arm he can be the playmaker.