How Short Will Andy Dalton's Leash Be......

[soulman]

Time to accept Dalton as starter, but how much patience will Nagy show?

Quarterbacks Andy Dalton, left, and Justin Fields throw during Bears practice Thursday at Halas Hall in Lake Forest. Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune

Have we reached the acceptance stage yet, Chicago?

Bears coach Matt Nagy has stuck by his plan to start Andy Dalton instead of Justin Fields, and no decibel level of shouting from fans, former players, national talking heads or local talking heads appears to have changed that decision heading into the season opener.

Well, maybe yell one more time that the first-round draft pick gives the Bears a better chance to win behind an uncertain offensive line against the Rams on Sept. 12.

Still no depth-chart change? OK, then here’s the next important question for those whose Septembers might feel a little duller without the prospect of seeing Fields start.

How quick would Nagy be to pull Dalton if he isn’t producing the way the Bears need him to?

If Dalton plays the way Nagy, general manager Ryan Pace and Dalton say he still can, then this won’t be complicated. The Bears can keep Fields on the sideline for a few weeks or months as he better learns how to read defenses, understand protections and go through the NFL’s demanding game-preparation process.

Maybe they use Fields in special packages to give him some time on the field and the offense an occasional boost. But Dalton, 33 and on a one-year contract, can show he still can lead a winning football team as he looks to extend his career.

Dalton is five years removed from his last Pro Bowl season, but he has started 142 games and has a level of veteran savvy and control the Bears haven’t seen for years. Teammates such as Allen Robinson have described how that experience helps their communication.

“He’s won a lot of games in this league,” Pace said. “His decision-making, his intangibles, his leadership. … There are so many veteran players that have come up to me and have made comments about Andy Dalton and what he’s doing — in practices, in the locker room, in the huddle — all those little things that I think we’re going to see pay off as we get into the season.

“It’s more about Andy right now. We’re excited about Justin. I’m more excited than anybody. But we’re just going to let this thing play out.”

It will get thornier if the Bears offense under Dalton continues to look like it did in the preseason. Without Robinson, Darnell Mooney, David Montgomery, Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham playing significant snaps, Dalton completed 13 of 21 passes for 164 yards with a touchdown and an interception and was sacked twice. The Bears scored on one of nine Dalton-led possessions in his two preseason games.

If Dalton is merely serviceable and a defense with serious question marks doesn’t take a step forward to keep the Bears in games, Nagy will have a decision to make.

On Thursday, Nagy wasn’t about to draw parallels or lessons from the quarterback dynamic he handled last year, when he opted to start Mitch Trubisky and then pulled him for Nick Foles midway through the Week 3 game against the Falcons.

Nagy’s history with Trubisky over two seasons already was muddy at that point, and many suspected he would have a quick hook. A year later, Dalton will be playing in Nagy’s offense in the regular season for the first time, with several skill players with whom he has seen minimal game action.

What level of patience is Nagy willing to give Dalton?

“We’re looking it as: Are we producing?” Nagy responded Thursday to that question. “Our goal right now as an offense is we want to be able to get first downs, score touchdowns and then win ultimately. You want to win and then make good decisions.

“We’ll have to see as we go out there. There are going to be in-game adjustments because you always get into Week 1 and you see unscouted looks or you see something that’s a surprise. So we as a staff are going to have to make sure that we’re all over that, and the players have got to adjust and just play.

“It goes back to the very beginning of where I set my mentality, which is focus on right now. Don’t focus on next week, don’t focus on weeks down the road or months. … And if we do that, we feel like that’s how the decisions are going to be made.”

Part of the subtext of this conversation — something Pace and Nagy never would acknowledge publicly — is whether their feelings about their job security will influence the decision about when to make the change.

If they feel pressure from above to produce a winning season, did they fixate on Dalton because they believe his experience will keep him from making the type of losing mistakes a rookie might make? And has that perspective changed at all after watching Fields fulfill expectations up to this point and show the ability to elevate the offense, even if only in the preseason? Could that influence when they make a change if Dalton isn’t leading the team to wins?

Or do Pace and Nagy feel secure enough that George McCaskey and Ted Phillips will give them time for Fields’ development on the side, leading them to let the situation play out a little longer?

McCaskey and Phillips haven’t spoken with the media corps since Jan. 13. They used the words “progress” and “improvement” then about what they expect to see from the Bears this season. On Wednesday, Pace was asked in a couple of different ways what the expectations are and what progress would mean.

“To me it goes all back to winning football games and getting in the playoffs and winning when we’re in the playoffs,” Pace said.

During the many questions Dalton has answered about his situation with the Bears, he has been polite but firm in saying he has confidence in himself as a starter and is not focused on the hype around Fields.

“Justin is going to have his time and Justin is going to have a great career,” Dalton said. “But right now it’s my time, and so my focus is on being the best player I can be for this team and do everything I can to help this team win.”

Still, he is the placeholder, a position that will be under intense scrutiny from all who have been clamoring for the Bears to start Fields. What happens if there are bumps along the way?

Dalton and Fields already have had to address fans booing Dalton after a slow start in the preseason game against the Buffalo Bills, and it’s fair to wonder how adversity in a regular-season game might be handled inside the Bears locker room too.

Pace was asked Wednesday if the Bears, with Fields waiting in the wings, have set up Dalton to fail.

“We’ll know when we know,” Pace said. “Right now we have a positive outlook. The positive outlook goes off of what we see here every day with Andy, and that’s Andy’s going to be leading our offense and that’s Justin’s going to be progressing at the right rate.

“Our goal all along, guys, has been to win games with Andy and look over on that other field and see, ‘Hey, look at this guy right here, look at the future of the franchise we have right here.’ That’s the goal, and we haven’t changed from that.”

But how long will the player who’s not the future of the franchise get to prove himself?

Edited September 6, 2021 by soulman

[Epyon]

Depends how inept the offense looks with him in, and how badly the defense is getting torched. 

If it's as bad as I think it will be week 1, Fields will be starting by week 2 or 3...

The offense looking as lost as it did in preseason, and he'll be gone faster than Mitch last year. 

The pessimist in me also has seen absolutely nothing to suggest the offense can even work with Dalton. So he must have been doing something amazing in those practices. 

Most pundits also have it being week 4 at home vs Detroit. So it doesn't feel like the leash is very long at all. 

[soulman]

It's kinda funny how so many of the media keep pushing a story line about Dalton's success or failure whereas I see it as being more about Matt Nagy's success or failure.  If four vet QBs of varying degrees of skill fail to be able to operate this offense under Nagy's game plans and play calling without even a modicum of success I can't accept all of that being on the QBs.

If you take your broken down car to four different mechanics the last of which having more experience than all of the others combined and even he can't get it running properly.....buddy, you need a new vehicle.  More rightfully the question might be "How long should Matt Nagy's leash be"?

[Bfan]

I agree we need to see someone accomplish something running Nagy's offense but I think the length of Dalton's leash will be more about how Quinn and Vildor plays then how Dalton plays. I think Nagy believes he can get to the playoffs with a very good defense and a mostly  impotent game manager at QB.  If the D does not show as a special unit I think Dalton will be gone after one or two games no matter how he plays, but if the D is that good I think Dalton will get at least four games before he is yanked. If we come out of the first four games at 2 and 2 and Dalton does not look totally in competent it will be mid season before we we see Fields full time.

Edited September 6, 2021 by Bfan

[Heinz D.]

3 hours ago, Epyon said:

Most pundits also have it being week 4 at home vs Detroit. So it doesn't feel like the leash is very long at all. 

Yeah...keep hearing that, hearing more of that lately...makes me wonder if the pundits haven't been exposed to certain elements of "the plan". 

Although, with Nagy I'm not really sure about his reasoning. I usually think of him more along these lines:

3 hours ago, soulman said:

More rightfully the question might be "How long should Matt Nagy's leash be"?

Unfortunately, I think that, barring a total dumpster fire this season (and Fields probably eliminates the chance of that), we won't see Nagy where he should be--in a television studio, or as a position coach--until 2023. 

45 minutes ago, Bfan said:

If we come out of the first four games at 2 and 2 and Dalton does not look totally in competent it will be mid season before we we see Fields full time.

Mid season was always where I clocked them making the change, but I don't know anymore. Dalton IS a good quarterback...with all the pieces around him, he may well play okay. 

But even good quarterbacks get thrust into situations that aren't right for them. They have no control over that. My fear is that Dalton will still be on the field, when Fields clearly gives us a better chance to win. 

[AZBearsFan]

6 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Dalton IS a good quarterback...with all the pieces around him, he may well play okay. 

Is he though? He had Cooper, Gallup and Lamb at WR in 2020 and a better OL than we will field this year and he had a lower QB Rating, lower QBR, worse TD/INT ratio, lower TD% and lower ypa than Trubisky. He hasn’t averaged more than 7.0 ypa since 2016. 

[soulman]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Is he though? He had Cooper, Gallup and Lamb at WR in 2020 and a better OL than we will field this year and he had a lower QB Rating, lower QBR, worse TD/INT ratio, lower TD% and lower ypa than Trubisky. He hasn’t averaged more than 7.0 ypa since 2016. 

I dunno. That Cowboy OL was pretty banged up last year as evidenced by Elliot also having his worst year rushing as well.  The only positive we might stand on is Dalton is probably better in Nagy's offense than Trubisky was.....at least the way Nagy insists on running it.

[Epyon]

 

15 hours ago, soulman said:

It's kinda funny how so many of the media keep pushing a story line about Dalton's success or failure whereas I see it as being more about Matt Nagy's success or failure.  If four vet QBs of varying degrees of skill fail to be able to operate this offense under Nagy's game plans and play calling without even a modicum of success I can't accept all of that being on the QBs.

If you take your broken down car to four different mechanics the last of which having more experience than all of the others combined and even he can't get it running properly.....buddy, you need a new vehicle.  More rightfully the question might be "How long should Matt Nagy's leash be"?

Be interesting to take bets on whether Nagy finishes the season as the playcaller, honestly. Lazor pretty dramatically outperformed him at the job last year, and Nagy insisted on taking back the reins. P

If it's really Nagy +scheme being the problem, it will also take longer to "bench" him again on playcalling this year, because he can ride the Dalton train into the ground, then blame it on Dalton and buy himself more games with Fields and blame his failures on rookie inexperience. 

Definitely a storyline to watch this year. 

[BearsFanForever]

This week I am going to pay attention to the oline.  If it continues to suck, and is the cause of Andy Daltons bad performance, then why would we put Fields in.  Let the oline learn how to play together.  We saw what a poor oline did with mahomes behind it in the suberbowl did...

 

[Sugashane]

I'm wondering what will be said if the OL plays poorly. Will they scapegoat Dalton or blame the line? Obviously there will be a level of coach speak but Nagy will have to have blame somewhere if the offense sputters. 

If it's the OL then that's his reason for not putting Fields in. If he blames Dalton and then Fields struggles he then looks inept. 

[abstract_thought]

22 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

I'm wondering what will be said if the OL plays poorly. Will they scapegoat Dalton or blame the line? Obviously there will be a level of coach speak but Nagy will have to have blame somewhere if the offense sputters. 

If it's the OL then that's his reason for not putting Fields in. If he blames Dalton and then Fields struggles he then looks inept. 

Get ready to hear how many injuries and new guys they have on the OL and how "It's a process" getting them to gel.

[dll2000]

16 hours ago, Bfan said:

I agree we need to see someone accomplish something running Nagy's offense but I think the length of Dalton's leash will be more about how Quinn and Vildor plays then how Dalton plays. I think Nagy believes he can get to the playoffs with a very good defense and a mostly  impotent game manager at QB.  If the D does not show as a special unit I think Dalton will be gone after one or two games no matter how he plays, but if the D is that good I think Dalton will get at least four games before he is yanked. If we come out of the first four games at 2 and 2 and Dalton does not look totally in competent it will be mid season before we we see Fields full time.

Interesting take.  I like it.

But, I think you are underestimating the fan reaction to a bad offensive performance with Fields on bench even with great defensive play.  

You can’t function if your own fans are booing you and press conferences turn hostile and aggressive.  

Nagy hasn’t faced a truly hostile crowd or media yet.  Even during losing streak of last year.  It’s a whole different world. 

Dalton has to play at least decent with a good D.  He can’t play bad.  

[Sugashane]

3 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

Get ready to hear how many injuries and new guys they have on the OL and how "It's a process" getting them to gel.

Positive note is that losses and stupid pressers means we get mocks up here. 

[Bfan]

4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Interesting take.  I like it.

But, I think you are underestimating the fan reaction to a bad offensive performance with Fields on bench even with great defensive play.  

You can’t function if your own fans are booing you and press conferences turn hostile and aggressive.  

Nagy hasn’t faced a truly hostile crowd or media yet.  Even during losing streak of last year.  It’s a whole different world. 

Dalton has to play at least decent with a good D.  He can’t play bad.  

Agreed but Dalton can get away with just being classic Dalton whereas the D would need to for a broken down war horse recaptuer his glory year and a 2nd year jag become some thing special.  I believe Dalton achieving cla@ic Dalton performance is more likely then. The other two. 

Of course this doesn't even address the issue that Nagy's idea of how to run an offense is just a hot mess. I guess my point is that Dalton's fate is more likely to be out of his control unless he suddenly transforms into Aaron Roger's 2.0

[soulman]

8 hours ago, Epyon said:

 

Be interesting to take bets on whether Nagy finishes the season as the playcaller, honestly. Lazor pretty dramatically outperformed him at the job last year, and Nagy insisted on taking back the reins. P

If it's really Nagy +scheme being the problem, it will also take longer to "bench" him again on playcalling this year, because he can ride the Dalton train into the ground, then blame it on Dalton and buy himself more games with Fields and blame his failures on rookie inexperience. 

Definitely a storyline to watch this year. 

Yeah, it will be but I have a pretty good hunch he won't be able to pass the blame off on anyone but himself any longer.  GMcC and Teddy Bears aren't that naive.  They can't miss seeing what the rest of us see so when does the question "what QB can run your offense Matt", come up?

Forgetting all about more recent stats rolled up playing on poor Cincy teams or a very injured Dallas team.  Andy Dalton is a capable NFL QB.  He's not gonna elevate the play of everyone around him but with a decent offense he can win more than he loses.  IMHO we'd have been far better off last season to have shown more patience and waited for Cincy to release Dalton.  He may have kept Mitch on the bench all season long.

But that was then and this is now.  What the guys at the top have called for is for Matt Nagy to show progress with his offense.  I believe that means more to them than our final W/L record.  We play a tough schedule and they know that.  If right from game one the offense comes out scoring with Dalton under center we can all very easily view how much better it might become once Fields is starting each week.

But if we keep struggling to put points on the board until the game is already lost or half lost how can anyone come to another conclusion other than Nagy's offense and his operation of it doesn't work.  We could argue 'til doomsday that Fields would make it better but would it still be good enough to compete with the best teams and win?  Are we KC with Mahomes or Houston with Watson?