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Week 4 GDT: Houston at Buffalo Bills


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Well, this will be a fun one. The Bills are what the Texans were during the best of the Kubiak years: a team brimming with talent trying to knock down the door and advance far enough in the playoffs. The Texans meanwhile are more along the lines of the Miami Dolphins in 2019: acquire future draft capitol, establish the culture you want while trying to be competitive. There’s just very few ways I can see the Texans really being in this game. On the plus side, expectations are low and the Texans are a team with nothing to lose. The Bills have a stingy defense lead by Tre’Davious White and Tremaine Edmunds. On offense, they have one of the top 5 QBs in the game right now further coming into his own on a team that’s been well-balanced. The only way the Texans have a chance is if they win the turnover battle by a good margin and find a way to gain some chunk plays.


Bills: 31

Texans: 13


Texans X-Factor: Davis Mills, QB

The bad: Mills is a rookie QB who got his first start last week against a stout NFL defense after limited playing time in college. The good: he actually held his own, eliminating turnovers and going through his progressions. The stats weren't fantastic, but he's interesting If the Texans want to have any chance in this one, he's got to take chances down field and surprise the Bills defense. Since we kept it vanilla last week, the Bills have no clue what to expect in Mills so it's on him to be the aggressor. 


3 Keys To The Game

1.       Keep Mills upright. If we want to have any chance of winning the game, it’s going to start up front. Mills has already taken 5 sacks in 6 quarters of play this far and was hit on far more drop backs against the Panthers. This will be a tough game to begin with, but it’ll make it even tougher if we can’t give him time to make his reads and get the ball downfield. Mills is nowhere near as mobile so we’ve got to keep him upright.

2.       Quit sucking in the running game. The Texans are averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry while being top 10 in rushing attempts. No surprise that a group of older RBs isn't the answer, but the offensive line isn't providing much help. I know we want to establish the running game due to having a rookie QB starting, but this is inviting more players to stack the box. Either come up with some unconventional runs or quit running it in obvious running situations.

3.       Play like you have nothing to lose. Simply put, we don’t. Enough of the predictable play calling; open it up and let’s take some shots downfield. Eliminate the obvious running situations and go for more play action calls. While we’re at it, rush more than 4 rushers. We have one of the lowest blitz rates in the league, which makes no sense when our secondary is an obvious weakness without Justin Reid. Lastly, please quit punting the ball and start going for it more often. 

Edited by LORK88
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Right now, Josh Allen is in MVP form. He established himself as a top 10 QB last season, and is now working his way up the ladder to top 3 status. RB is a mixed bag with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary - I see Singletary as a guy who can crush us, we don't seem to have a cover guy for guys like this in routes. Dawson Knox has the ability of a top 10 TE and is sneaky good. Stefon Diggs is an elite WR and Emmanuel Sanders is an ideal compliment to him. The defense is going to have a lot to deal with.

One thing I'll be interested to watch will be the Texans OL vs Bills DL battle - AJ Epenesa and Gregory Rosseau might be the best young DE tandem in football. Both are long armed with quick power on the snap of the ball. Rosseau is the athletic gem with oodles of speed and quickness to deploy, Epenesa is the overpowering, relentless edge rusher who makes a Ts life hell in 1v1 situations. Pair that with guys like Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei and a depth chart including Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison and you have a DL that is frequently rotated and fresh, with freakish talent everywhere. Tre White follows a #1 WR all over the field, and is on the bottom half of top 10 CBs in the league - he'll draw Cooks all day long, so we'll see how they scheme Cooks open. LBs can be exploited by pass catching RBs - David Johnson, your number should be called a lot.

If the run game doesn't get going and that DL can get after Davis Mills, then he's dead to rights out there.

I was wrong last week vs Carolina (sorta, I got Slye missing an XP) so hopefully I'm wrong this time...

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