MWil23 Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Mind Character Empire Lies: PFF is good look at Daniel Jones, gargle gargle gargle, IT IS NIGH!!!! Also Mind Character Empire Lies: Pay no attention to PFF in 2020, it is flawed, box score scouting, charlatan small Ric Flair-ing leader of men, small handed derp 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Lies Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, MWil23 said: Poor Empire Lies really decided to come back join the forum at the wrong time and apparently just discovered PFF this year: I wonder what he thought of last year... Why didn't you post that earlier? That proves it! Baker was a better player than Mahomes last year weak 9 on and thus we should see him as elite still this year! Ahhh yes! Last year. What a time to be believe it 'twas. It was a terrible time on Earth, but a wonderful time in Browns NFL time. The Browns winning with a steady, smart Head Coach etc. Through wild unavailabilities due to the virus the team and Baker still played well. Post-bye week 9 the Browns offense had new life. Baker balled out a lot against the Ravens and Titans no doubt. BUT I do remember those games post week 9 bye week a little differently than most it seems. For starters, those final 8 regular season games, the Browns played 4 of the Top 5 Worst Teams in the League. In another game they played the Steelers Backup and in another they played the 11th Worst Team in the league. The Worst team in the league (Jaguars), the 2nd Worst team in the league (Jets), the 4th Worst team in the league (Texans), the 5th Worst team in the League (Eagles), the 11th Worst Team of the league (Giants), and the Steelers Backups. And it's important to note that not only were those Teams the worst in the league, but the Defense matched in almost every case if not worse how bad the team was. Though it's true COVID-19 restrictions saw other key members of the Browns team out, one could still take into account that context of opponent quality when factoring in quality of Browns players' or Baker's play. ------------ Now that a brief discussion of some context has taken place, this is how: Wk 10: Texans (4th Worst Team in the League)-- Wind Game, Terrible passing conditions Wk 11: Eagles (5th Worst Team in the League) -- Wind/Weather effected some passing game, but open bad misses as well Wk 12: Jacksonville (The Worst Team in the League) -- 3 really bad wide open throw misses on critical (Kareem Hunt, Higgins in the Endzone) and many missed reads Wk 13: Titans (26th Worst Team in the League) -- Played well within structure but fumbled on a QB sneak that could've changed the outcome of the game late. Wk 14: Ravens (24th Worst Team in the League) -- Balled out certifiably. Amazing ball placement throughou Both in and Out of structure Top 2 game if not the best of his career outside of a terrible 3rd quarter INT. Wk 15: Giants (11th Worst Team in the League) - meh Wk 16: Jets (2nd Worst Team in the League) -- WRs out, but missed wide open throws and had 3 fumbles including one on a QB sneak. Wk 17: Steelers (The Steelers Backups) -- meh ----- In general, I've addressed those week 7 or week 9 breakdowns of Baker's play more specifically here in prior response to you that of course you didn't read (nor did I... F-those long posts,... wall of texts) On 10/6/2021 at 6:19 PM, Empire Lies said: Which is the true person, Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde? Such is the question of which version of Baker is the real Baker. That’s because his the full body of work often possesses equal negatives to positives. The conflict that people have about Baker represents the conflicting nature of his top level play clashing with his bottom basement performance. Let’s take an example: Let’s say that there’s this charlantan non-wordsmithian named MWil who is near the absolute bottom of meaningful performance metrics for 8 games in the 2020 season (that accounts for the average performance between the up weeks and down weeks during that time period). After those 8 games, that derp finds his way near the top of performance metrics for approximately 9 games (that accounts for the average performance between the up weeks and down weeks during that time period). Then, in the new 2021 season that same Bakersballsacksman is at the absolute bottom for 4 games (that accounts for the average performance between the up weeks and down weeks during that time period). Simple math: That means out of the last 21 games, 12 games or 57% of games you’ve been cheeks and in 9 games or 43% of games you’ve been performant. Replace MWil in this example with Baker and that's emblematic of the Baker experience. Now, we all know that there are contextual factors surrounding the various games (i.e., player injury, COVID-19, new offense, etc), but the data this year of a negative trend is not completely new. But that’s not the whole picture of performance as there are also prior seasons of data with their own contextual factors that point toward the trend as well. --------------- The Relevant Analytical Comparison: Let’s look at the “under pressure” analytics and overall performance metrics. They don’t suggest exactly what you think they suggest. I think you are mixing up some things and selectively attending to some metrics/analytics and forgetting other aspect of Baker’s performance. Specifically, that by only taking into account Baker’s best stretch in the 2nd half of last season (week 7 and on), he was still only the 20th ranked QB under pressure according to PFF. He was however much higher in other relevant metrics. We’ve all seen in read the post bye week analytical breakdown of Baker’s performance. Typically, the breakdown has focused on Baker’s performance Week 7 through the postseason where he ranked second among quarterbacks in passing grade (91.8), fifth in big-time throw rate (6.6%) and first in turnover-worthy play rate (1.6%). I.) PFF Overall Performance 2020 Season (Pre-VS-Post Week 7) Weeks 1-6 (26th in the NFL) Passing Grade: 57.3 Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 3.9% Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 5.6% Weeks 7-DP (2nd in the NFL) Passing Grade: 91.8 Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 6.6% Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 1.6% II.) Under Pressure 2020 Season (Pre-VS-Post Week 7) Weeks 1-6 (36th in the NFL) Passing Grade: 32.9 Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 0.0% Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 6.2% Weeks 7-DP (20th in the NFL) Passing Grade: 49.9 Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 4.0% Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 3.7% The 4-game sample size of 24 passes under pressure this season is of similar but lower quality to Baker at his worst stretch last year before he and the offense figured things out. When someone says "and this is not a new trend," that means this negative trend has happened before. Therefore, the title of Petrak’s article isn’t wrong. Here's Baker's pressure versus not PFF grades via a comparison to his peers this year --------- Moment Pressure VS. Pocket Pressure: The Real Baker Issue There's pressure as measured analytically by defensive rush effecting the QB. To me, the most important pressure that effects Baker negatively can be related but is its own separate entity: Big Game and/or Big Moment Pressure. I’ve made the points prior that’s the real concerning trend with Baker; that is, whether it be the fumbles against the Jets and Titans on game deciding plays. Or the pre-shoulder injury misses on 3 consecutive final drives against Kansas City and more (see below), Baker’s has as of yet to show he can consistently perform at a top level in those moments. In the end, the jury is out on Baker and there’s reason to believe that the offense will start to click as the season progresses. However, assuming that all is well and Baker’s performance has been sunshine and rainbows is a fantasy based dreamscape. Edited October 21, 2021 by Empire Lies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgX Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 29 minutes ago, Empire Lies said: Why didn't you post that earlier? That proves it! Baker was a better player than Mahomes last year weak 9 on and thus we should see him as elite still this year! Ahhh yes! Last year. What a time to be believe it 'twas. It was a terrible time on Earth, but a wonderful time in Browns NFL time. The Browns winning with a steady, smart Head Coach etc. Through wild unavailabilities due to the virus the team and Baker still played well. Post-bye week 9 the Browns offense had new life. Baker balled out a lot against the Ravens and Titans no doubt. BUT I do remember those games post week 9 bye week a little differently than most it seems. For starters, those final 8 regular season games, the Browns played 4 of the Top 5 Worst Teams in the League. In another game they played the Steelers Backup and in another they played the 11th Worst Team in the league. The Worst team in the league (Jaguars), the 2nd Worst team in the league (Jets), the 4th Worst team in the league (Texans), the 5th Worst team in the League (Eagles), the 11th Worst Team of the league (Giants), and the Steelers Backups. And it's important to note that not only were those Teams the worst in the league, but the Defense matched in almost every case if not worse how bad the team was. Though it's true COVID-19 restrictions saw other key members of the Browns team out, one could still take into account that context of opponent quality when factoring in quality of Browns players' or Baker's play. ------------ Now that a brief discussion of some context has taken place, this is how: Wk 10: Texans (4th Worst Team in the League)-- Wind Game, Terrible passing conditions Wk 11: Eagles (5th Worst Team in the League) -- Wind/Weather effected some passing game, but open bad misses as well Wk 12: Jacksonville (The Worst Team in the League) -- 3 really bad wide open throw misses on critical (Kareem Hunt, Higgins in the Endzone) and many missed reads Wk 13: Titans (26th Worst Team in the League) -- Played well within structure but fumbled on a QB sneak that could've changed the outcome of the game late. Wk 14: Ravens (24th Worst Team in the League) -- Balled out certifiably. Amazing ball placement throughou Both in and Out of structure Top 2 game if not the best of his career outside of a terrible 3rd quarter INT. Wk 15: Giants (11th Worst Team in the League) - meh Wk 16: Jets (2nd Worst Team in the League) -- WRs out, but missed wide open throws and had 3 fumbles including one on a QB sneak. Wk 17: Steelers (The Steelers Backups) -- meh ----- In general, I've addressed those week 7 or week 9 breakdowns of Baker's play more specifically here in prior response to you that of course you didn't read (nor did I... F-those long posts,... wall of texts) Did Baker take your girlfriend out to the Cheesecake Factory or something? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Lies Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, DawgX said: Did Baker take your girlfriend out to the Cheesecake Factory or something? The good news is she said that he allegedly signs a lot of girls autographs in that alleyway 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrownLeader Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 20 hours ago, Empire Lies said: QBs Likely Available this Off-Season for a Variety of Reasons: Russell Wilson Deshaun Watson (**Assuming Facts Manifest Such that He's Sufficiently Exonerated**) Aaron Rodgers Daniel Jones Jimmy Garoppolo Mitchell Trubisky Jalen Hurts Sam Darnold Tua Tagovailoa Gardner Minshew Tyrod Taylor Teddy Bridgewater Drew Lock Andy Dalton Jacoby Brissett Nick Foles -------------- The top 3 above are clear upgrades over Baker football play-wise; however, the true dark horse career resurgence player who has leadership/work ethic intangibles, running ability and plus athleticism, pinpoint accuracy on big time throws (not the same as completion %), is a perfect fit for this offense in that his limitations could be masked by this offensive scheme, and has shown to be able to elevate poor surround talent in winning ways in flashes .... is Daniel Jones. Beyond boxscore scouting and/or ugly moments with the lack of pocket awareness, Daniel Jones has almost all the tools. If the Browns can't get the services of Rodgers, Wilson, or Watson and Baker's agents are playing hardball seeking a Josh Allen type of contract, sign me up for a Daniel Jones gamble. That gamble has a lot of upside and likely would not be resource intensive. Though it's tough to see the Giants seeing Matt Corral and Sam Howell and seeing an upgrade from Daniel Jones. I'm assuming the Lions are the worst team in the league so Malik Willis ends up there. The Dolphins go with Deshaun Watson. Then the Panthers, Eagles or Giants go with Russell Wilson Denver, Steelers, or Panthers go with Aaron Rodgers. If Eagles miss out on the top 3, they'll likely go Matt Corral. I don't think Russell Wilson is likely at all. Aaron is possible if he's hell bent for a fresh start 2022. Watson is a mess at this point and there's way too many variables there to even begin with. Daniel Jones is a back up level QB...just stop it. Garoppolo is headed that way too as soon as Kyle unclenches. Trubisky is a true wildcard but such a longshot as well. More likely available wish list.. 1. Aaron Rodgers derp 2. Baker Mayfield It figures the Browns would find the one QB that unprecedentedly plays worse with a #1 WR talent. If there was someway to get him playing good Baker 90% of the time, I'd be all in. 3. Gardner Minshew Minshew would be perfect imo. He was a solid starter until he tried playing through a broken hand then got sidelined so the team could get a better draft pick. 4. Cam Newton I'm surprised you didn't include Cam. Limitations and all, the one thing he consistently brings is the ability to be clutch. Drop him behind the best running game in the league, with a couple good outside/inside targets..he could absolutely win here. 5. Jared Goff Goff is interesting. He's a lot like Baker but less lows imo. If Dan Campbell really isn't feeling him, a swap for Baker, who's definitely more his style, would be reasonable then the Lions could draft Thibodeaux. I'd feel better about Goff/Stefanski on this team tbh than Baker moving forward. 6. Colin Kaepernick Then there's what would be the comeback of all comebacks. It's bizarre to think Kap's been sidelined for so long but flamethrowers with mobility can last pretty long in the league and I'd wager he'd still have a lot left after everything. Similar to Cam, I think you drop him into this situation and he'd work, assuming the chatter doesn't just drown the whole team. ---------- Past that I think it's entirely possible, and even likely if Mayfield misses a good chunk with shoulder surgery or just plays awful from here on out, that the team uses a high draft pick (1st or 2nd) on a QB. Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Sam Howell are all likely 1st rounders and fairly high picks probably out of the team's range unless they trade up. Carson Strong, Brennan Armstrong, Kenny Pickett, Kedon Slovis, Jayden Daniels are draftable types that could be groomed to succeed Baker. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 43 minutes ago, DawgX said: Did Baker take your girlfriend out to the Cheesecake Factory or something? Are we kink shaming now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 (edited) Sometimes I forget that Mind Character Empire Lies is Hue Jackson. Shouldn't you be doing something a little bit better for humanity with your time? \ Edited October 21, 2021 by MWil23 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Just now, MWil23 said: Sometimes I forget that Mind Character is Hue Jackson. Shouldn't you be doing something a little bit better for humanity with your time? \ 1 minute ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: Are we kink shaming now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 minute ago, MWil23 said: Story of my life. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Lies Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, BrownLeader said: More likely available wish list.. My list wasn't a wish list, but instead all the QBs I think may be available this offseason for one reason or another and how I ranked them in the event that the Browns were forced to make a move. I do think Russell Wilson wants out and may force his way out surprising many fans. Only the top 3 football-wise on my list were clear upgrades, but stop it Daniel Jones is far beyond backup level when going beyond boxscore scouting. He's starter level. The quality of his starter level is up for debate. He has plus traits though and would be worth the upside gamble. 22 minutes ago, BrownLeader said: 5. Jared Goff Goff is interesting. He's a lot like Baker but less lows imo. If Dan Campbell really isn't feeling him, a swap for Baker, who's definitely more his style, would be reasonable then the Lions could draft Thibodeaux. I'd feel better about Goff/Stefanski on this team tbh than Baker moving forward. Less lows but equally low lows in terms of magnitude and far less high highs. That contract is wild too given what Goff is at this point with 31 mil a year for 2 more years after this one. 24 minutes ago, BrownLeader said: Carson Strong, Brennan Armstrong, Kenny Pickett, Kedon Slovis, Jayden Daniels are draftable types that could be groomed to succeed Baker. Almost all cheeks around. Slovis has wow throwing ability, high level intuitive throwing feel in tight windows, and pinpoint ability on big time throws, but that's a late round developmental play Strong is a statue. Pickett is the new Nate Peterman hype train come draft time of "he's a great window thrower" but his career will go the same way in the pros. Haven't watched Jayden Daniels yet. They'd be groomed to be cheeks as they are cheeks in my mind. 30 minutes ago, BrownLeader said: Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Sam Howell are all likely 1st rounders and fairly high picks probably out of the team's range unless they trade up. Willis I'm willing to gamble on the upside. Corral and Howell no bueno, but you are right that that they could be out of range. 36 minutes ago, BrownLeader said: 3. Gardner Minshew 4. Cam Newton 6. Colin Kaepernick I probably had Minshew too low. Totally forgot to add Cam Newton to the list, but for sure. Steady leadership but hard to say where his shoulder and arm still are. Colin Kaepernick's been out the league too long to bet on anything. He's got tremendous leadership skills and had a cannon with far less touch ability. His ability is a mystery box. And the NFL and large swaths of its herd fan still have intense derp disdain for Colin. It would be a media circus for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Lies Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 32 minutes ago, MWil23 said: Sometimes I forget that Mind Character Empire Lies is I don't know who this mental character is. 34 minutes ago, MWil23 said: Empire Lies is Hue Jackson. Shouldn't you be doing something a little bit better for humanity with your time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rod Johnson Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Shoot I'd just trade for DeShaun Watson, the price can't be that high. Also I've done 0 research on his situation lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtmmike Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Empire Lies said: Why didn't you post that earlier? That proves it! Baker was a better player than Mahomes last year weak 9 on and thus we should see him as elite still this year! Ahhh yes! Last year. What a time to be believe it 'twas. It was a terrible time on Earth, but a wonderful time in Browns NFL time. The Browns winning with a steady, smart Head Coach etc. Through wild unavailabilities due to the virus the team and Baker still played well. Post-bye week 9 the Browns offense had new life. Baker balled out a lot against the Ravens and Titans no doubt. BUT I do remember those games post week 9 bye week a little differently than most it seems. For starters, those final 8 regular season games, the Browns played 4 of the Top 5 Worst Teams in the League. In another game they played the Steelers Backup and in another they played the 11th Worst Team in the league. The Worst team in the league (Jaguars), the 2nd Worst team in the league (Jets), the 4th Worst team in the league (Texans), the 5th Worst team in the League (Eagles), the 11th Worst Team of the league (Giants), and the Steelers Backups. And it's important to note that not only were those Teams the worst in the league, but the Defense matched in almost every case if not worse how bad the team was. Though it's true COVID-19 restrictions saw other key members of the Browns team out, one could still take into account that context of opponent quality when factoring in quality of Browns players' or Baker's play. ------------ Now that a brief discussion of some context has taken place, this is how: Wk 10: Texans (4th Worst Team in the League)-- Wind Game, Terrible passing conditions Wk 11: Eagles (5th Worst Team in the League) -- Wind/Weather effected some passing game, but open bad misses as well Wk 12: Jacksonville (The Worst Team in the League) -- 3 really bad wide open throw misses on critical (Kareem Hunt, Higgins in the Endzone) and many missed reads Wk 13: Titans (26th Worst Team in the League) -- Played well within structure but fumbled on a QB sneak that could've changed the outcome of the game late. Wk 14: Ravens (24th Worst Team in the League) -- Balled out certifiably. Amazing ball placement throughou Both in and Out of structure Top 2 game if not the best of his career outside of a terrible 3rd quarter INT. Wk 15: Giants (11th Worst Team in the League) - meh Wk 16: Jets (2nd Worst Team in the League) -- WRs out, but missed wide open throws and had 3 fumbles including one on a QB sneak. Wk 17: Steelers (The Steelers Backups) -- meh ----- In general, I've addressed those week 7 or week 9 breakdowns of Baker's play more specifically here in prior response to you that of course you didn't read (nor did I... F-those long posts,... wall of texts) Baker has better numbers than Steve Young Aaron rodgers Tom Brady Peyton Manning Drew Breese Prediction you bring last game with a qb that has a torn labrum. Ps Delpit Landry Greedily Williams. Thank you have a good day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rod Johnson said: Shoot I'd just trade for DeShaun Watson, the price can't be that high. Also I've done 0 research on his situation lmao TLDR exposed himself to women and moved so that his Rod Johnson would touch a woman giving him a massage. More or less propositioned others. Not cool man, not cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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