Trey Lances devolopment (it failed)

[J-ALL-DAY]

27 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

I see 3 options for 2023

1. Trade Lance to a team that liked him a lot in the draft, such as the Colts. Let Jimmy G walk. Trade for Cousins and maybe target a mid round rookie. Heck, the Vikings might be dissatisfied enough with Cousins to attach a decent pick for us to take on his contract. And Shanny won't care because Cousins is his guy.

2. Keep Jimmy G and let go of Lance. I'd only keep Jimmy G if we win a SB. 

3. Keep Lance as the starter and sign Tyler Huntley or Matt Ryan to compete and/or be a high end up backup. Huntley has upside and Ryan has experience with Shanny. Please stay away from Mayfield, Darnold, Jones, Brisset, Bridgewater (fringe starters/good backup type guys). 

Like I've said before...no scenario in my mind where Lance is the unquestioned starter and we go into the season with Purdy/Sudfeld/whoever as a backup. Lance is too unproven and injury prone to be given the reins. Which means it might make more sense to just cut our losses and move on. 

I'm afraid you are going to be very disappointed then lol.

[49ersfan]

37 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I'm afraid you are going to be very disappointed then lol.

Could definitely be wrong, but I'd guess Shanny/Lynch will want to hedge their bet. Not entirely because of on field play, but the injuries as well. We've already lost 2 seasons because our starter went down and almost lost a 3rd 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Just now, 49ersfan said:

Could definitely be wrong, but I'd guess Shanny/Lynch will want to hedge their bet. Not entirely because of on field play, but the injuries as well. We've already lost 2 seasons because our starter went down and almost lost a 3rd 

Sure, but that does not mean Lance will not go in as the unquestioned starter, as he was this year. They can try to get a good back up and that could happen but will they bring someone in to compete with Lance? Don't see that at all. 

One thing though, Lance is going to have to come out firing from week 1 and will not be able to grow into the position as was going to be the case this season. He really needed these reps but now he's just going to need to pick things up from the sideline and will need to have a big offseason working on some of his mechanical flaws. At least for the most part he has the mental game down. 

[Forge]

11 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I am just going to be the first person to go out and actually say it.  

Does this feel like a snow job to anyone else? Who calls QB power unless you are trying to get your guy hurt.  It's like Kyle was trying to move to Jimmy G on purpose, without having to make the call.

No. 

I think Kyle thinks that Trey Lance can't reliably throw the football and he thought the best way to win with him as the starter was to run him.

[Forge]

2 hours ago, 49ersfan said:

I see 3 options for 2023

1. Trade Lance to a team that liked him a lot in the draft, such as the Colts. Let Jimmy G walk. Trade for Cousins and maybe target a mid round rookie. Heck, the Vikings might be dissatisfied enough with Cousins to attach a decent pick for us to take on his contract. And Shanny won't care because Cousins is his guy.

2. Keep Jimmy G and let go of Lance. I'd only keep Jimmy G if we win a SB. 

3. Keep Lance as the starter and sign Tyler Huntley or Matt Ryan to compete and/or be a high end up backup. Huntley has upside and Ryan has experience with Shanny. Please stay away from Mayfield, Darnold, Jones, Brisset, Bridgewater (fringe starters/good backup type guys). 

Like I've said before...no scenario in my mind where Lance is the unquestioned starter and we go into the season with Purdy/Sudfeld/whoever as a backup. Lance is too unproven and injury prone to be given the reins. Which means it might make more sense to just cut our losses and move on. 

1. Trading for Cousins, even as I joke that it's going to happen, still seems very unlikely. I just refuse to rule it out. If anything, I could see a scenario where Cousins doesn't extend in Minnesota, he's already been tagged twice in his career, and walks after next year. At that point the 49ers have gotten (hopefully) a full year look at Lance and if they don't like what they see they can just sign Cousins for 1-2 years in 2024. 

2. I wouldn't keep Jimmy period. He's hitting the market so he's getting the absolute top of whatever earnings potential he has. Big money if he has a Jimmy esque season and just happens to win the super bowl. That has a disaster contract written all over it. Jimmy is 31 years old. We know who he is. If he wins the super bowl, what then? If you had already shown you wanted to move on from Jimmy once and have spent 5 years with the guy...if he plays well in the playoffs (for once), we should let that 4 game sample override the previous 5 years? That seems ill advised. Thats how you get Flacco'd. We win the super bowl, you thank him for his service and bow out of the sweepstakes that will surely be there for him. There's always a price point where it would make sense to bring it back, but I'm assuming with that kind of season that his contract is going to be far too much for me to feel comfortable matching, given the overall sample size. 

3. This is the most likely, but they aren't really going to "compete". The primary reason this team likely brings in a high level backup is probably because of health again. Lance has been an injury disaster.

Tyler Huntly is an RFA, he won't go anywhere. Matt Ryan is under contract next year with Indy and I don't think he's a huge fan of shanny. We would have to see if Indy moves on first and if Ryan would want to take a backup gig. Any guy being brought in has to do so under the idea of being a backup, just as they did with Jimmy this year. If Indy cuts him, I wouldn't be surprised if Ryan just retires. 

Guys like Darnold / Jones / Baker  are far more likely if only because they are definitely capable of stop gapping for a few games, but because they may be considerably cheaper. It's very possible that you can get one of them to do the Trubisky / bills deal for like 3 million to be a back up to rebuild value. If Lance gets hurt, they move into an awesome situation to set themselves up for a payday the following year. True backups may actually get paid more than the failed starters in some instances, but true back ups like Teddy B, Case Keenum, Gardner Minshew would also make sense. 

[clarkfn2284]

2 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I'm afraid you are going to be very disappointed then lol.

Agree. Lance will be the guy starting gain in 23. No doubt in my mind that barring a bad recovery and him not being ready. I don't for a second believe that Shanahan was trying to get back to JG as some has proposed. I dont believe they will move on from Trey either. This team wasn't even willing to admit they were wrong on Sermon until the 11th hour. Trey is Shanahan's guy, I just question how Shanahan chose to use him and I severely question his ability and willingness to be patient enough to develop a raw QB.

[J-ALL-DAY]

7 minutes ago, clarkfn2284 said:

Agree. Lance will be the guy starting gain in 23. No doubt in my mind that barring a bad recovery and him not being ready. I don't for a second believe that Shanahan was trying to get back to JG as some has proposed. I dont believe they will move on from Trey either. This team wasn't even willing to admit they were wrong on Sermon until the 11th hour. Trey is Shanahan's guy, I just question how Shanahan chose to use him and I severely question his ability and willingness to be patient enough to develop a raw QB.

We have a very small sample size but we saw flashes of what this offense was going to be with Lance. It was going to be a DOMINANT rushing offense with the explosive plays in the passing game. This was going to be the offense until Lance became more accurate in the short game. Shanahan is not going to go away from that and the potential of Lance after this injury. He may skew the offense a bit to have him run less, but make no mistake, Lance will still be a factor in the running game. 

They can get a solid backup like Dalton or someone of that caliber. I suspect that Shanny is going to end up being a big fan of Purdy and may even be confident in him as QB2. Before you scoff at that, this is the same man that was perfectly fine having Beathard and Mullens as Jimmy's back up for how many years??? Lol.

[Forge]

https://theathletic.com/3608092/2022/09/19/49ers-jimmy-garoppolo-trey-lance-qb/

 

Really a lot of what we are already talking about, except I don't see how Jimmy ends up back here without a massive overpayment. 

 

Quote

With all that in mind, I can envision an upcoming offseason that includes 1) re-signing Garoppolo for one or two years; 2) re-emphasizing that Lance is still a big part of the future but other options must be pursued with his health in question; and 3) lots of bubbly talk about the future of Brock Purdy, who already is a developing Kyle Shanahan favorite these days. Purdy as QB1 in 2024? It’s a possibility.

 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

45 minutes ago, clarkfn2284 said:

Agree. Lance will be the guy starting gain in 23. No doubt in my mind that barring a bad recovery and him not being ready. I don't for a second believe that Shanahan was trying to get back to JG as some has proposed. I dont believe they will move on from Trey either. This team wasn't even willing to admit they were wrong on Sermon until the 11th hour. Trey is Shanahan's guy, I just question how Shanahan chose to use him and I severely question his ability and willingness to be patient enough to develop a raw QB.

The play calling was very bizarre.  How long did he think Trey would last calling 10 QB power calls per game?  Why would anyone risk running their QB shoulder first into the teeth of the defense, when the QB is athletic, but not a superior athlete.  

Teams were geared up to the QB run, and there was very little space for him.  I just don't see how whatever shannahan was calling could lead to anything but a QB injury.  If Trey needed another year, I would have been ok with giving him another year on the bench to develop, but not like this.  

Kyle just happened to decide to run lance 15 times per game, and he just happens to get injured.  But he could have been injured any play, and kyle was just calling plays he thought would win.   I just don't see how nobody said this was a horrible idea. 

Then when JG comes in, kyle remembers how to get guys open short, and starts calling plays that work again.  I don't know if it was intentional, but they did everything wrong with regards to developing a young QB.  Whenever somebody talks about JG and Lance, Kyle turns beet red, lol.  

I don't know that it was intentional, but I also don't know that it wasn't.  There is just a lot of questions, and the answers are all pretty weird and illogical. 

The QB runs were not working very well.  It wasn't like Deebo at Wideback where it clicks, and everything started working well.  It was sluggish, and it was getting his young QB hurt.  Whether Kyle was calling really crappy plays against the grain of the defense, avoiding throws with extra QB runs, second guessing himself at the last minute and going with the safer back up plan, or being hard headed and sticking with something he thought would work, it was a bad idea, and it falls on him.    It is not 1986 anymore, the league has rules to protect QB's, and you can prevent them from taking shots.  Who can take 20 hard shots to the head, then still process the plays quickly.  He did the opposite of protect his QB, and the QB himself did very little to avoid contact.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420

[clarkfn2284]

55 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

We have a very small sample size but we saw flashes of what this offense was going to be with Lance. It was going to be a DOMINANT rushing offense with the explosive plays in the passing game. This was going to be the offense until Lance became more accurate in the short game. Shanahan is not going to go away from that and the potential of Lance after this injury. He may skew the offense a bit to have him run less, but make no mistake, Lance will still be a factor in the running game. 

They can get a solid backup like Dalton or someone of that caliber. I suspect that Shanny is going to end up being a big fan of Purdy and may even be confident in him as QB2. Before you scoff at that, this is the same man that was perfectly fine having Beathard and Mullens as Jimmy's back up for how many years??? Lol.

I believe Purdy ends up as the No 2 as well. There is a good chance we will see him this season all things considered. I think he has played enough football to be respectable as a backup. 

[clarkfn2284]

44 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

The play calling was very bizarre.  How long did he think Trey would last calling 10 QB power calls per game?  Why would anyone risk running their QB shoulder first into the teeth of the defense, when the QB is athletic, but not a superior athlete.  

Teams were geared up to the QB run, and there was very little space for him.  I just don't see how whatever shannahan was calling could lead to anything but a QB injury.  If Trey needed another year, I would have been ok with giving him another year on the bench to develop, but not like this.  

Kyle just happened to decide to run lance 15 times per game, and he just happens to get injured.  But he could have been injured any play, and kyle was just calling plays he thought would win.   I just don't see how nobody said this was a horrible idea. 

Then when JG comes in, kyle remembers how to get guys open short, and starts calling plays that work again.  I don't know if it was intentional, but they did everything wrong with regards to developing a young QB.  Whenever somebody talks about JG and Lance, Kyle turns beet red, lol.  

I don't know that it was intentional, but I also don't know that it wasn't.  There is just a lot of questions, and the answers are all pretty weird and illogical. 

The QB runs were not working very well.  It wasn't like Deebo at Wideback where it clicks, and everything started working well.  It was sluggish, and it was getting his young QB hurt.  Whether Kyle was calling really crappy plays against the grain of the defense, avoiding throws with extra QB runs, second guessing himself at the last minute and going with the safer back up plan, or being hard headed and sticking with something he thought would work, it was a bad idea, and it falls on him.    It is not 1986 anymore, the league has rules to protect QB's, and you can prevent them from taking shots.  Who can take 20 hard shots to the head, then still process the plays quickly.  He did the opposite of protect his QB, and the QB himself did very little to avoid contact.

A few things. Nobody is going to veto Kyle on his game plan. Nobody is going to tell him that his game plan is a bad idea. Like it or not, Kyle is considered one of the best planners and play designers alive. No way Brian Griese says a word to him, no way Lynch says a word to him.

We can't prove intent, but that doesn't mean we eliminate all logic. Kyle and John and attached to the success of Lance. John maybe more so than Kyle because sometimes I don't think Jed would ever fire Kyle, but I don't see Kyle being the arsonist to Trey purposefully. I just think Kyle is a bad developer of young players in general. He lacks patience required to let young players fail. 

I would also argue that the short game is Lance's weakness. I don't know that we were ever going to see Lance be throwing short a ton in games this season. It was going to be heavy dose of runs, deep shots over the top and long developing crossers.

[9erFreak77]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

https://theathletic.com/3608092/2022/09/19/49ers-jimmy-garoppolo-trey-lance-qb/

 

Really a lot of what we are already talking about, except I don't see how Jimmy ends up back here without a massive overpayment. 

 

 

If Purdy is the starter in 2024 then the regime needs to be fired. All that draft capital given for Lance……heads will roll.

[Forge]

34 minutes ago, clarkfn2284 said:

I would also argue that the short game is Lance's weakness. I don't know that we were ever going to see Lance be throwing short a ton in games this season. It was going to be heavy dose of runs, deep shots over the top and long developing crossers.

Pretty much this. The simplest solution is often the right one. 

Why does Shanny run Lance so much? Because his passing is not a strength at this point, Shanny isn't fully on board with trusting him as a passer yet, and running Lance is one of the ways that Shanny thought he was going to get a competitive edge with him as a starter. The biggest thing was to try and play Lance this year. In order to do that and keep the team as competitive / good as possible with Lance starting, that meant running Lance. 

[clarkfn2284]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

Pretty much this. The simplest solution is often the right one. 

Why does Shanny run Lance so much? Because his passing is not a strength at this point, Shanny isn't fully on board, and running Lance is one of the ways that Shanny thought he was going to get a competitive edge with him as a starter. The biggest thing was to try and play Lance this year. In order to do that and keep the team as competitive / good as possible with Lance starting, that meant running Lance. 

I dont feel like it was required to run Lance to be successful though. There were enough guys to use to accomplish that feat without having to expose Lance as much as Shanahan was. I have a hard time not allowing a guy to fail and expecting him to develop and learn. There is a fine line there because of the winning aspect, but I feel pretty strongly that you could have won, developed Lance as a passer and only run him 3-5 times a game by design. Kyle is widely considered a great play designer, I'll stop short of saying he is a great play caller because some of what we saw was Roman esque levels of simplicity.

[jonnguy2015]

4 hours ago, 49ersfan said:

We made 2 key mistakes and everything else has been based off that

Mistake 1 - Not drafting Mahomes in 2017. Not even scouting Mahomes or any of the QB's that draft class, apparently. wtf?  Although there's a chance we would have liked Watson more, and we dodged a bullet not drafting him. 

Mistake 2 - Not signing Brady in 2020. We get at least 1 ring by now and are favorites in the NFC this year too. Not signing Brady leads us to keep Jimmy, he plays mediocre and is hurt, we trade up for Lance (which is currently looking like a disaster) and now we have a huge question mark from 2023 going forward

Mahomes was seen similarly to how Lance was going into the draft, a raw prospect with a cannon for an arm and able to extend plays with his legs but needing some time to sit and learn before he could be good at the NFL level. And the Mahomes approach is what the team ended up taking with Lance: letting him sit for a year behind a proven veteran in hopes he can lead you farther when he's ready in his sophomore season. It would have been seen as a reach to take him at 3, and there's no guarantee he develops into what he is today without Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and a solid O-line supporting him during his first few seasons. It's entirely possible he would have been a bust if thrown into the fire behind the team we were throwing out in 2017.

It's also easy to say with retrospect we should have signed Brady in 2020, but from what we could see then, Jimmy looked like a solid QB who had just nearly won the Super Bowl in his first full season starting and was in the prime of his career, and Brady was a QB who had just had his worst statistical season in years, threw a pick six to end his team's season, and was going to turn 43 before he took his first snap as a 49er. It was a perfectly understandable decision to not take that gamble that Brady still had something left in the tank in my opinion, even if with the benefit of hindsight we can say it turned out to be the wrong decision.