2022 Free agency thread

[soulman]

50 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

It's funny how people were okay with Poles trading Mack for a 2nd round pick but are totally against trading Quinn for anything but the same or higher.

Mack was traded primarily to eliminate over $60 mil in future costs which LAC is paying.  That had a whole lot to do with his trade value.  Quinn's costs are not nearly that much and in fact his contract is fairly priced for it's remaining three years provided he can still produce at a high level.  If not he can be released.

But at any rate I'd like anyone to lay out for all of us why we should trade Quinn prior to June 1st saving only $4.4 mil when post June 1st we save $12.9 mil.  His entire 2022 salary.  If Poles is giving up that much financial benefit maybe there should be more inducement than a late 3rd round pick.  That's my opinion.

 

 

 

[soulman]

1 hour ago, JAF-N72EX said:

5 seasons is a long time in the NFL. You are trying to compare Quinn from when he was 27 to now when he's 33 going into 2022. That's a big difference.

Expecting him to have another 18 sack season at the age of 33 is not reasonable.  And not only that but he's our best pass rusher.  I have done research on this and if he exceeds 10 sacks this season then I will gladly come back to this and say I was wrong.

His 18 sack season was anomaly. Not the norm. And lets not forget that he got those sacks because he played opposite of Mack who isn't here anymore. When was the last time he was the focal point on defense and made an put up 10 sacks in a season? 7, 8, 9 years ago? 

He'll actually be 32 in another month or so not 33 and I didn't imply he'd have another 18.5 sack season.  I just averaged out the last 5 seasons including 2020 when he played at less than 100% all year. Pick 5 other contiguous seasons if you like where he played in at least 14 games or more.

You say you'd be happy with 10 sacks.  His average over the past 5 seasons is 9.4 sacks.  Close enough?  I also counted his 2020 season which we can see now was a true outlier that significantly impacted his average yet I counted it too.Eliminate it and his four year average would be 11.25 sacks per year.  Close enough?  Quinn is still balling out there despite growing older.

Mack missed 10 games in 2021 and Hicks missed 8 games so on that basis I think you'd have to agree that neither contributed all that much to Quinns having set a Bears single season sack record and he put up 11.5 sacks and 22 hits in 2019 not 7 or 8 or 9 years ago.  I thought you said you researched this.  Hmmm, doesn't seem so now does it.  You even made him a year older then he is.

The point is he can still play at a high level or why would anyone be interested in trading anything for him?  This idea that a DL career ends at age 30 is just so much a media driven myth too many buy into.  Luckily smart GMs don't.  Robert Mathis had 19.5 sacks/21 hits at age 32.  Bruce Smith was still a terror in his 30s.  72 sacks from age 30-35.

But all that's really relevant now is what can he do in 2022 and after?  That's what Poles has to decide not us.  I don't believe a trade for #94 prior to the draft is fair compensation but that's me and I've given my reasons.  You've also give your some of which seem to be inaccurate but your opinion still counts so.......

 

Edited April 12, 2022 by soulman

[Madmike90]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

Not very bright are ya'?  Or very quick on the uptake. 

I compliment you and this is how you respond.  Ah well.  Some  things are to be expected here I guess.

The point is the "compliment" has nothing to do with the likes of Adam Shaheen...it's irrelevant.

[Madmike90]

4 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Ideally, Poles should've kept both. That is if a GM truly believed in their QB, which I'm not sure he does.

Not sure I have seen anything yo suggest they don't have faith in Fields.

[Bigbear72]

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

Not sure I have seen anything yo suggest they don't have faith in Fields.

In all fairness, I don't think there is much that says that they do or don't either way. I believe that truly (and this in my opinion would be the proper approach) want to see what they have in all of these players first, especially on offense. They need to determine what issues were system issues and what issues were player issues. I have walked into several jobs and people have told me as soon as I got there to watch out for this person because they are a jerk, or that this person is great at what they do, only to find the opposite to be true. I am very excited about the possibility of what Fields can be. Whether or not he can be THAT is something that is altogether different. This issue becomes magnified when you are part of a fanbase that is so quarterback starved like we are. Our perspective is probably biased because we desperately need to believe that he is "the one." Conversely, the team to the north of us wants to run one of the greatest QBs of all time out of town. But they come from a pretty long line of great QB play. Perspective is everything.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Bigbear72

[AZBearsFan]

5 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

if they were going to trade one and keep the other then they should've traded Quinn instead of Mack.

I think if they made the decision (short of a blow me away offer for the 2nd guy) that they were going to trade one for the express purpose of adding draft capital, but not both so as not to entirely gut the position, that they we’re going to trade whichever got the higher return. If the return for each would be the same then trading Mack opened up like $12M more in cap space for 2023, so you could make a solid argument for moving him over Quinn for sure despite Mack being the better overall player. He’s not $12M better. There’s obviously some level of assumption here on either side since we don’t know if there was ever any offer made for Quinn or, if so, what the offer was. I highly doubt it would have been a top 50 pick plus a future late rounder though. 

For me, I think the return they got for Mack, considering they kept no money beyond the 2022 dead money they couldn’t avoid, was pretty reasonable. Not a steal or a windfall, but pretty fitting for the player he is at this point with the recent injury history he’s had. I personally don’t think the return for Quinn in trade would be as high as that for Mack despite the superior 2021 season. He’s not as well rounded of a player overall (Mack is a far superior run defender), and he’s a year older than Mack. 

[soulman]

3 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

The point is the "compliment" has nothing to do with the likes of Adam Shaheen...it's irrelevant.

You still don't get it but that's OK.  My sense of humor is often misunderstood.

I only returned to comment on a few bits of misinformation and challenge a lack of facts few others seem willing to.  YOU.....challenged something I also believed should've been challenged.  Despite our past issues I applauded that.

That's all there was to it.

[AZBearsFan]

21 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

In all fairness, I don't think there is much that says that they do or don't either way. I believe that truly (and this in my opinion would be the proper approach) want to see what they have in all of these players first, especially on offense. They need to determine what issues were system issues and what issues were player issues. I have walked into serval jobs and people have told me as soon as I got there to watch out for this person because they are a jerk, or that this person is great at what they do, only to find the opposite to be true. I am very excited about the possibility of what Fields can be. Whether or not he can be THAT is something that is altogether different. This issue becomes magnified when you are part of a fanbase that is so quarterback starved like we are. Our perspective is probably biased because we desperately need to believe that he is "the one." Conversely, the team to the north of us wants to run one of the greatest QBs of all time out of town. But they come from a pretty long line of great QB play. Perspective is everything.

The FO probably takes a longer timeline look at player development than fans do. If Fields isn’t a top 15 starter after 2022 there is undoubtedly a segment of the fan base who will be looking to replace him already. Fans are inherently impatient, but especially at QB in Chicago. 

[JAF-N72EX]

2 hours ago, soulman said:

He'll actually be 32 in another month or so not 33

Correct. My bad.

Okay. So you were comparing a 27 year old Quinn to a 32 year old Quinn.

2 hours ago, soulman said:

Pick 5 other contiguous seasons if you like where he played in at least 14 games or more.

Again, 5 seasons is a long time. Especially when discussing pass rushers in their 30s.

2 hours ago, soulman said:

You say you'd be happy with 10 sacks. 

I said I would be surprised if he got 10 sacks this season. Actually poor wording on my part since I did say "I have done research on this and if he exceeds 10 sacks this season then I will gladly come back to this and say I was wrong."

Let me clarify. A while back I did some research on aging pass rushers and when they tend to decline, at what age, and by how much. This was in relation to Mack and when it was best to trade him. This ofcourse led me to looking at Quinn's numbers too since he was also in that age group and his projected numbers for next year landed somewhere between 6 to 8 sacks in 2022. I'm pretty sure Quinn's projected sack totals was exactly 7 (60-65% decline) but I can't be 100% sure either. I wish I had saved the spreadsheet.

And while 6-8 sacks is still productive, it also shows a sharp decline. Which is common for aging pass rushers. Very rarely do they slowly decline. They usually take a sudden dive off a cliff (see JJ Watt).

Going as far back as 30 years, only 40 players have ever had 10 sacks or more in a season at the age of 32 and older. And only 14 of them ever accomplished this twice in their career.

32 years or older: https://stathead.com/tiny/jY90l

As you can see, this list also include some legend hall of famers like bruce Smith, Reggie White, Kevin Greene, and Julius Peppers.... and I think we can all agree that Quinn is certainly not on their level. Expecting him to ever reach double digits in sacks again is highly unlikely. 

Just for good measure, let's look at 33 years and older and you will see the list get shorter and shorter.

33 years or older: https://stathead.com/tiny/0Ongz

Only 22 total players. Only 10 with multiple seasons of 10 sacks or more.

34 years or older: https://stathead.com/tiny/oD7fa

Only 15 total players. Only 8 with multiple.

35 years or older: https://stathead.com/tiny/ZXYlQ

Only 11 total players. Only 5 with multiple.

 

 

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

Not sure I have seen anything yo suggest they don't have faith in Fields.

They haven't shown anything to suggest that they do either though.

[dll2000]

5 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Ideally, Poles should've kept both. That is if a GM truly believed in their QB, which I'm not sure he does.

I think he didn’t believe in roster as it stood and is reserving judgment on Fields. 

Evidence seems to indicate he is building for two years from now without urgency or much concern for immediate future.   

I hope Poles realizes if Fields doesn’t pan out he is highly unlikely to survive to a second contract.  I am not so sure he is factoring in all human elements involved and how outside pressure influences events as they unfold.  

[soulman]

20 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Correct. My bad.

Okay. So you were comparing a 27 year old Quinn to a 32 year old Quinn.

Again, 5 seasons is a long time. Especially when discussing pass rushers in their 30s.

I said I would be surprised if he got 10 sacks this season. Actually poor wording on my part since I did say "I have done research on this and if he exceeds 10 sacks this season then I will gladly come back to this and say I was wrong."

Let me clarify. A while back I did some research on aging pass rushers and when they tend to decline, at what age, and by how much. This was in relation to Mack and when it was best to trade him. This ofcourse led me to looking at Quinn's numbers too since he was also in that age group and his projected numbers for next year landed somewhere between 6 to 8 sacks in 2022. I'm pretty sure Quinn's projected sack totals was exactly 7 (60-65% decline) but I can't be 100% sure either. I wish I had saved the spreadsheet.

And while 6-8 sacks is still productive, it also shows a sharp decline. Which is common for aging pass rushers. Very rarely do they slowly decline. They usually take a sudden dive off a cliff (see JJ Watt).

Going as far back as 30 years, only 40 players have ever had 10 sacks or more in a season at the age of 32 and older. And only 14 of them ever accomplished this twice in their career.

32 years or older: https://stathead.com/tiny/jY90l

As you can see, this list also include some legend hall of famers like bruce Smith, Reggie White, Kevin Greene, and Julius Peppers.... and I think we can all agree that Quinn is certainly not on their level. Expecting him to ever reach double digits in sacks again is highly unlikely. 

Just for good measure, let's look at 33 years and older and you will see the list get shorter and shorter.

33 years or older: https://stathead.com/tiny/0Ongz

Only 22 total players. Only 10 with multiple seasons of 10 sacks or more.

34 years or older: https://stathead.com/tiny/oD7fa

Only 15 total players. Only 8 with multiple.

35 years or older: https://stathead.com/tiny/ZXYlQ

Only 11 total players. Only 5 with multiple.

 

 

Jeezus.  I can't accurately predict the future so I decided to use a more current average long enough to make some realistic projection of what Quinn may offer if he's only "average".  That's the best I can do or anyone else can do as well.

Take any 5 year contiguous period where he's played in at least 14 out of 16 games and the results won't be all that much different.  When Quinn is 100% on average he's a solid double digit sack guy over that period of time.

I have no idea what Quinn will be like in 2022 but if KC is making a pitch for him they believe they do and Poles will then weigh that offer vs what he feels Quinn is worth both in trade and to keep at least for this season.

The rest is just your own rationalizations while you compare HOF players some with much with longer careers to Quinn.  But as an example; Pep had 97 sacks in his first 10 seasons all at Carolina.  Quinn has had 101 sacks in 11 years with several different teams playing both OLB and DE under several coaches running different schemes.  Quinn may never be a HOF'er but numbers are still numbers.

We could do this all week long except I'm not gonna do that.  I'm done with circular debates here there and everywhere.  If Poles decides to trade him nothing any of us say here will influence that.  We see it differently and for me that's where this debate ends.

Edited April 12, 2022 by soulman

[AZBearsFan]

13 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

They haven't shown anything to suggest that they do either though.

I took having him speaking to the media during the Poles and Flus intro press conference day was a pretty strong indicator of belief and support. If they didn’t see him as the face of the team moving forward then I don’t think he’s meeting the media that day. There was no real reason for him to be made available that day other than in a team leader type capacity. Beyond that, I’m not sure there’s really much they can do between January and today to show belief or lack of belief beyond making a move for potential competition for him for the QB1 role, which they have obviously not done. 

[JAF-N72EX]

11 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I think he didn’t believe in roster as it stood and is reserving judgment on Fields. 

Evidence seems to indicate he is building for two years from now without urgency or much concern for immediate future.   

I hope Poles realizes if Fields doesn’t pan out he is highly unlikely to survive to a second contract.  I am not so sure he is factoring in all human elements involved and how outside pressure influences events as they unfold.  

Yeah, this could also be the case, and there is two ways to look at it.

On the bright side it would show that he's not just gonna completely buy into the Fields hype and build the team around him (while also using valuable assets like Pace did with Mitch) without seeing it for himself. 

On the other side though, if he decides that Fields isn't the guy he's looking to build around then I think he may be setting himself up for failure because the fans and the locker room are gonna turn on him pretty quickly.

 

[WindyCity]

5 hours ago, soulman said:

Mack was traded primarily to eliminate over $60 mil in future costs which LAC is paying.  That had a whole lot to do with his trade value.  Quinn's costs are not nearly that much and in fact his contract is fairly priced for it's remaining three years provided he can still produce at a high level.  If not he can be released.

But at any rate I'd like anyone to lay out for all of us why we should trade Quinn prior to June 1st saving only $4.4 mil when post June 1st we save $12.9 mil.  His entire 2022 salary.  If Poles is giving up that much financial benefit maybe there should be more inducement than a late 3rd round pick.  That's my opinion.

 

 

 

You do not save the money, you just eat it next year. They have been very protective of 2023 cap space.